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2005 Girls Basketball State Playoff Preview:Class 1A and 2A A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith(2-2-2005) |
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2005 Girls Basketball State Playoff Preview:Class 1A and 2A A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith(2-2-2005) |
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CLASS 1A
SECTIONAL 49 (at Washington Township)
Quarterfinals - Feb. 8 (6 p.m. CST)
Whiting (3-16) vs. Washington Township (13-6)
LaCrosse (0-18) vs. Hebron (6-13)
Morgan Township (12-7) vs. River Forest (3-17)
Semifinals - Feb. 11 (6 p.m. - CST)
Kouts (12-8) vs. Washington Township (13-6)
SECTIONAL 50 (at Oregon-Davis)
Quarterfinals - Feb. 8 (5 p.m. CST)
Argos (15-4) vs. Culver (6-12)
South Central (11-6) vs. Triton (10-9)
Oregon-Davis (10-10) vs. Marquette (6-10)
Semifinals - Feb. 11 (5 p.m. - CST)
Westville (5-11) vs Argos or Culver
SECTIONAL 51 (at Bethany Christian)
Quarterfinals - Feb. 8 (5 p.m. CST)
Canterbury (13-4) vs. Elkhart Christian (4-13)
Lakewood Park Christian (4-10) vs. Blackhawk Christian (6-9)
Semifinals - Feb. 11 (5 p.m. - CST)
Bethany Christian (3-15) vs. Hamilton (7-11)
Quarterfinal winners meet
SECTIONAL 52 (at West Central)
Quarterfinals - Feb. 8 (6 p.m. CST)
Tri-County (9-9) vs. West Central (13-5)
Pioneer (3-15) vs. North White (0-18)
Semifinals - Feb. 11 (6 p.m. - CST)
Caston (3-16) vs. South Newton (12-7)
Quarterfinal winners meet
CULVER (1A) REGIONAL
Quarterfinals - Feb. 18 (10 a.m. CST) semifinals
West Central winner vs. Bethany Christian winner
Washington Township winner vs. Oregon-Davis winner
CULVER
REGIONAL (2-2-2005) This is clearly a wide open
bracket with no one dominant team. The competition should be intense
because a lot of teams can realistically believe they
can still be playing on Feb. 26 at the semistate.
SECTIONAL 52 - At West Central, the host school comes in ranked 11th
state wide. They have played an entirely 1A and 2A schedule except for 3A Culver
Academy. But South Newton got as bye and Caston (3-16) in the semifinals.
WC returned five starters from 2004 when they were 14-9. The South Newton Rebels have played a tougher schedule but these teams have met and WC won by 10. Many things here point to West Central's first sectional title.
SECTIONAL 51 – At Bethany Christian, Canterbury and 5-9 guard Megan King (26 ppg.) have the only winning record. Canterbury has lost to 2A No. 1 Harding 64-52 and 4A Jefferson 58-55 in overtime. that tells you all you need to know here.
Canterbury coach Scott Keiger clearly feels he has 1.) An all-state player and 2.) A state finals team, so he's loaded up the schedule. Canterbury has to win three times but there's nobody else here who has won more than seven times this season.
Canterbury was 17-9 last year including sectional and regional titles and they see every combination defense you can imagine.
The Cavaliers have just three seniors and they have no one taller than 5-9 but this team is 4-0 against Class 3A teams. Case closed. This is a lock.
SECTIONAL 50 – at Oregon-Davis, Argos (15-4) has happy numbers but Triton defeated Argos 42-37 in November.
Desiree Gilbert (12.9 ppg.) a 5-8 sophomore has done well for the second year in a row as has 5-7 soph Amber O'Dell (14.7 ppg.). This team has returned all five starters from 2004 but the school has never won a sectional.
Triton is a traditional state tournament power with 5 sectional titles and two state titles. The Trojans play six 3A schools and the fact that they have no seniors may have contributed to some losses. Triton has little size but they have beaten Oregon-Davis, South Central, Argos and Culver.
South Central has five starters from last season and 5-8 guard Mallory Gorski (18.1 ppg.) and 6-foot Anna Kammrath (16.4 ppg, 12.6 rebounds) are prime-time players. South Central's schedule features 13 Class 1A schools which is too many.
I like Triton to control South Central in the first round, get to the final and kick out Argos. But don't be on it.
SECTIONAL 49 – at Washington Township, the host team is 1-1 vs. Hebron, has beaten Kouts but lost to Morgan 37-31 on Feb. 1. The Senators have had problems scoring in recent weeks and Morgan's Angie Bush (21.5 ppg.) has not.
WT's size, with 6-0 Alisha Polite (14.3 pg.) should do damage to Morgan but the 'Cherokee Nation' has been on the warpath lately, coming close to an upset of Porter County Conference champion Boone Grove.
WT guard Aimee Mishler (12.4 ppg.) is the outside on the inside-outside threat in this sectional that no one else here has. Hebron's has caused major problems for Washington Township in two meetings.
It's very hard to pick a team that's lost three games in a row in the final two weeks. Clearly, there's some problems here but WT's final two games are noncompetitive and the Senators have time to get straight. You can go with the hot team or the better team. Morgan could win here but WT should win here.
CULVER (1A) REGIONAL
Quarterfinals - Feb. 18 (10 a.m. CST) semifinals
West Central winner (West Central) vs. Bethany Christian winner (Canterbury)
Washington Township (WT) winner vs. Oregon-Davis winner (Triton)
CULVER - If these four teams advance,
Canterbury will smoke out West Central and WT will outlast Triton. At
mid-season, I'd have taken Washington Township to win the final here but
honestly, Canterbury is experienced and potent. The
Senators are going in the wrong direction and need a major reversal of form to
get up to Canterbury's level.
The cliché simply isn't true. Offense wins in basketball. The team that controls the ball and does what they want on offense, wins. Bluntly put, Washington (and everybody else) has three weeks to come up with a defense to stop Canterbury star Megan King. No one has done it yet and that's why Canterbury is the defending regional champ.
CLASS 2A
SECTIONAL 33 (at BOONE GROVE)
Quarterfinals - Feb. 8 (6 p.m. CST)
Lake Station (1-17) vs Bishop Noll (10-9)
Semifinals - Feb. 11 (6 p.m. - CST)
BOONE GROVE (20-0) vs. Bishop Noll (11-9)
Wheeler (13-7) vs. HANOVER CENTRAL (10-9)
SECTIONAL 34 (at
Fairfield)
Quarterfinals - Feb. 8 (5 p.m. CST)
Jimtown (10-8) vs. Westview (15-3)
Glenn (10-10) vs. LaVille (7-11)
Semifinals - Feb. 11 (5 p.m. - CST)
Bremen (9-8) vs. Fairfield (17-3)
SECTIONAL 35 (at
Rensselaer)
Quarterfinals - Feb. 8 (6 p.m. CST)
Winamac (18-1) vs. Rochester (5-12)
Semifinals - Feb. 11 (6 p.m. - CST)
North Judson (16-3) vs. North Newton (1-17)
Winamac or Rochester vs. Rensselaer (13-6)
SECTIONAL 36 (at Fountain Central)
Quarterfinals - Feb. 8 (5 p.m. CST)
Fountain Central (6-12) vs. Sheridan (0-18)
Delphi (8-10) vs. Clinton Central (3-13)
Semifinals - Feb. 11 (6 p.m. - CST)
Seeger (15-4) vs. North Montgomery (9-8)
Quarterfinal winners meet
RENSSELAER (2A) REGIONAL
Quarterfinals - Feb. 18 (10 a.m. CST) semifinals
Fairfield winner (Fairfield) vs. Rensselaer winner (North Judson)
BOONE GROVE winner (Boone Grove) vs. Fountain Central winner (Seeger)
RENSSELAER (2-2-2005) This is one of the most hotly contested regionals
because there is the potential of four 15-win teams in the regional. One of the
competitors, obviously could ride the home floor all
the way and that, plus a 52-48 win over North Judson this week (Feb.1) makes Rensselaer
a big player.
Boone Grove has rolled to a 20-0 record against a much lesser schedule than the slate North Judson, for example, has played. If Boone has to face Rensselaer at Rensselaer for the regional title, they'll wish they'd scheduled them during the season. Boone needs a severe beat down by North Judson in the season finale to get themselves straight for the state tournament. There have only been 13 undefeated Indiana state champions (out of 50) and four of those were in the first four years when the competition was weaker than the NBA's Eastern Conference. Only total egomaniacs don't understand that an undefeated record more often than not, is the product of a weak schedule. You can't play against Marsha Brady all year and then beat Tom Brady.
SECTIONAL 33 at BOONE GROVE
PORTER TOWNSHIP - Here's one of five undefeated teams in the state, led by 5-6 senior four-year starter Karissa Walter (16.7 ppg.). Boone has defeated everyone in this sectional except Bishop Noll (10-9), which is probably the only team here with a chance to beat the Wolves.
Noll will have to slow the pace of the game against Boone, which averages 65 points a game. Hanover Central was 7-3 when senior Christie Wick was injured. They are 3-6 since then. Wheeler has talent but little of it is at guard and Boone has waited 52 weeks for a rematch of the 2004 sectional title game.
This is a once-in-a generation team for Boone Grove. But the bar is high. If they do not, at least, reach the state finals, the season is a failure. The worry is what happens when they fall behind in a playoff game. Will they panic? With so little competition all year, no one knows for sure. Barring injury, there's little chance that Boone loses on their home floor.
SECTIONAL 34 – at Fairfield - Westview smoked out Fairfield 62-28 last week, giving the indication that the sectional host does not belong on the same floor with Westview. The Warriors are led by Jamie Gallmeyer (21.3 ppg.) who scored 30 against Fairfield and averaged 17.3 per game last year.
Westview beat Jimtown by 12 Tuesday (2-1-2005) night as well. Jimtown is led by soph guard Steph Wagner (20.1 ppg.)
Gallmeyer is an 80% foul shooter, a 40% three-point shooter and a returning starter off last season's 18-7 team. The senior-freshman tandem of 5-8 Allyse and 6-foot Tiffany Fisher adds balance.
Fairfield, which has not played a tough enough schedule at all, does get a bye and Bremen (8-9) in the semifinals. This is not an obvious choice, but Westview should win.
SECTIONAL 35 - at Rensselaer - Here is one of the state's most competitive sectionals. Winamac is 18-1 with a loss to North Judson. Judson is 16-3 with a loss to Rensselaer. Rensselaer is 14-6 with a 22-point loss in November to Winamac.
A Winamac-North Judson game would likely be a Friday night semifinal with the winner facing Rensselaer on the Bombers' home floor the next night. You can make a very good argument for the perimeter shooting of Judson, the full court pressure of Winamac or the powerful Bombers with 5-11 Reagan Kaane and 5-10 Leslie Rowan.
5-10 soph Kara Crawford (14.6) and 5-10 Whitney Fritz (11.7 ppg.) are Winamac's inside with sisters Jennifer (9.3 ppg.) and Julie (11.3 ppg.) Chumley giving the Warriors outside offense.
Post-based teams usually win playoff games because they have certain offense. But I can't see Judson losing twice in 3 weeks to Rensselaer and the Jays have played seven Class 3A teams, readying themselves for this sectional.
I like North Judson to win here on strength of schedule, but the Fairfield teams need to prepare for any of the three competitors.
SECTIONAL 36 at Fountain Central
VEEDERSBURG - Seeger obviously has the best record and returns four starters off last year's 13-8 team. 5-9 senior forward Jennifer Walters leads a consistent attack and the only other winning team in the sectional was North Montgomery. None of these teams have played a lot of 3As or 4As. Seeger has already beaten North Montgomery by 10 and Fountain Central by 22.
Seeger has won nine sectionals and five regional in the days of all-America guard Stephanie White and her sister. This team has five seniors and there's no one to really challenge them. Seeger is the biggest lock of these four sectionals and the surest bet to get smoked like an old cigar at the regional.
RENSSELAER (2A) REGIONAL
Quarterfinals - Feb. 18 (10 a.m. CST) semifinals
Fairfield winner (Westview) vs. Rensselaer winner (North Judson)
BOONE GROVE winner (Boone Grove) vs. Fountain Central winner (Seeger)
RENSSELAER - If these four teams reach the regional, it should be a very
entertaining day with Judson throwing different defenses at Westview's Gallmeyer
and Seeger trying to slow Boone Grove.
A North Judson – Boone Grove final would be a rematch of the regular season finale on Feb. 3. What you're reading is being written before that contest which, I assume, Judson will win on their home floor.
But, given a second shot, Boone will defense Judson's shooters better and win a narrow victory on a neutral floor. For the record, I think Boone would beat Winamac but the fact that neither played a difficult schedule makes that pick an uneducated one.
Boone and Winamac both must hope that Rensselaer does not reach the regional on their home floor. The Bombers would upset the field.
I do not see Boone beating Rensselaer in Rensselaer. I'm telling you right now, Bomber forward Leslie Rowan (19.3 ppg.) can kick more butt that Jennifer Garner and Regan Kaane (7.3 rebounds) collects more boards than a lumber yard (That's an old basketball joke). They won't be intimidated by Boone and will get key calls on their home floor.
But, given the four I have predicted (and only in that scenario), look for Boone Grove to advance to the semistate for the second time in three seasons.