The RENEGADE

2007 - Week 12: NW Indiana High School Top-10 Football Poll

A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith

10-30-2007

MERRILLVILLE (10-30-2007) - The weather definitely hit the second week of the playoffs hard and teams that couldn't adjust can start basketball now. The best example was probably Valparaiso, a superior team to Lake Central. Remember, Valpo lost 38-24 to Penn (11-0) and beat CP 21-17. But in a steady rain and a fine old squishy field full of Lake County mud, Lake Central was the better team.

You have to account for bad weather in the post-season and it's tough to do because 2/3 of the season is played in dry, warm conditions. I don't know if teams practice in the rain. If you have a fieldhouse, why practice in the rain? It's great to throw for thousands of yards in 70-degree weather, but you better have some plays that work in the shower if you expect to survive Northwest Indiana in November.

But a running game is no guarantee. Crown Point probably lost at LaPorte in the 2006 regional, in part, because LaPorte handled a heavy rain and muddy field night better. This year, with a team than ran for over 2,000 yards in 10 games, CP still didn't survive a heavy rain, muddy field night, losing 13-7 at Merrillville.

Lowell began the 'World Tour' last Friday (10-16-2007) with a 14-8 win in the 4A Sectional semifinals at Plymouth. This week the Devils (10-1) play at Concord for the Section 10 title, If Griffith (8-3) wins at Hobart this Friday, Lowell (with a win over Concord) will play at Griffith on Nov. 9. Then if Muncie South wins at Jay County on Nov. 2 and Bishop Dwenger beats Muncie South on Nov. 9, Lowell (with a win at Griffith) will face a fourth consecutive road playoff game at undefeated and top-ranked Bishop Dwenger. That's a flaw in the state tournament format. A Top-10 team that tied for its league title shouldn't get four road games in the state tournament. But the present IHSAA football format does not, in any way, reward quality play. It's all about luck, something most coaches say is a somewhat insulting contributor to their hard-earned success.

This week is 'Judgment Day.' The week where a good draw and favorable home field situation no longer helps you. The feature will be tradition-rich Griffith and even more tradition-rich Hobart in the 4A Sectional Nine final championship. Wheeler (10-1) goes for its first ever Class 2A Sectional championship on the road against a bad Delphi (4-7) team. The kicker: It's at least two hours and a time zone from Wheeler to Delphi, which is in very rural Carroll County.

Clark (8-3) also tries for the school's first-ever sectional crown and they will have the home fans behind them. They'll need all the help they can get as the opponent is 10-time sectional champ Andrean (8-3). Whenever anybody talks about how they're going to beat up on Andrean, you have to remind them that the 59ers have lost 11 games in five years and how their team wasn't one of those 11.

The top of the poll again doesn't change because the top team keeps winning. But the sectional title match is the ultimate money game. You can prove you were what you've said you were. The only question to ask now is: Can your team reach the state finals?

That's the only reason for high school football teams in Indiana to still be playing in November.

1.) 5A Merrillville (10-1)
2006 (7-5), 2005 (11-3), 2003 (5-6), 2004 (6-5)

MERRILLVILLE - Merrillville made big defensive plays in the fourth quarter to turn back arch-rival Crown Point 13-7 in the rain. Junior Ryan Stokes' 7th and 8th field goals of the season turned out to be the difference, but halfback Roosevelt Williams (155 carries, 1,135 yards, 16 TDs) picked up 102 yards on 14 carries in the mush. The Pirates' 8th consecutive win was big because they survived a bad weather night. Merrillville has a favorable schedule. They travel to Lake Central (7-4) Friday to attempt to win the 5A Sectional One title and they would host Penn (11-0) on Nov. 9. It's been a very good year, and even with an inconsistent offense, the best may be yet to come.

Can they reach the state finals?: Maybe. They would have to play the semistate on the road at Carmel, but they are equipped to win there. They have such speed defensively they need dry, if not good weather to use is. I give them a 25% chance.

2.) 5A CROWN POINT (8-3)
2006 (12-1), 2005 (11-1), 2004 (4-7), 2003 (5-5)

CROWN POINT - Crown Point went scoreless in the second half and lost to arch-rival Merrillville 13-7. It's hard to be too unhappy. CP finished at the top of the DAC for a third consecutive season and they battled to the end. Also, running back Russell Chick, who gained over 1800 yards, suffered a second quarter knee injury against the Pirates, did not return and would have been questionable for further play. CP also had to go without center Matt Polus (6-2, 260) who pulled a hamstring during the preceding week in practice. I've said this for years. When you suffer a serious injury the week of (or during) a playoff game, it's a sign that your season has come to an end. It does not mean you're a total fluke like the Colorado Rockies... or a few pounds light in the loafers like the IU defense. The state tourney is designed to eliminated teams and when your key players go down, it's your time to go. CP heads into the off-season with a 31-5 record over the last three seasons.

3.) 4A Lowell (10-1)
2006 (7-6), 2005 (11-4), 2004 (9-4), 2003 (11-2)

LOWELL - The Devils escaped at Plymouth with a 14-8 win in the rain and the mud in Marshall County. Brandon Grubbe and Steffan Peck each scored TDs and the Lowell defense shut out the Rockies in each of the last three quarters. That's the seventh time Lowell has held an opponent to seven points or less. The victory was reminiscent of the 2005 state title run where Lowell trailed in almost every game and rallied to win. But just because that style brings back memories of the glory year, doesn't mean they should keep doing that. Lowell did not complete a pass in the Plymouth game and they need that overhead threat this week. The Devils have allowed just eight points per game, but that average will take a beating this week when the Devils take a two-hour bus ride to challenge Concord (8-3) and their 30-points-per-game offense.

This is the biggest game during the Lowell state tourney run as the Devils will be trying for a NW Indiana best fifth consecutive sectional championship, which was the season goal. But Concord is 9-2 in playoff games the last 2 years. Lowell's still behind CP in the poll? Yes, they are. On strength of schedule. But that changes if Lowell wins at Concord.

Can they reach the state finals? They have an outside chance. Lowell got the ultimate bad draw. They could play every game on the road from here on out. I would put their chances at only about 10% because it's going to take a team better than the one they had in 2005 to win on the road in the playoffs four weeks in a row.

4.) 4A Griffith (8-3)
2006 (12-2), 2005 (12-1), 2004 (9-3), 2003 (7-5)

GRIFFITH - Griffith has had two easy weeks against East Chicago and Highland. They would never say that, but they know it's true. The Panthers rolled over Highland 41-0 last week in the rain. They now put it all on the line against Hobart (8-3) in a rematch of an earlier game that the Brickies dominated 28-14. When you look at the Panthers, they've stopped Morton (6-4) twice and they won in overtime 29-28 at Lowell (10-1). Those are their quality wins.

Does it look like Griffith is ready? Well, no? They drew 13 penalties for 115 yards last week in a game they knew they'd win and they turned the ball over three times. It was ugly. But they had a chance to rest any injured players and the Panthers always play with an attitude that you need on the road. One warning sign. When folks around Griffith talk about how the quarterback is throwing the ball well this year, that's traditionally a bad sign. Because the Panthers are not a good passing team and they have to do it sparingly. Griffith must run the ball to win this time of year and they only ran for 118 yards last time against Hobart. Some of the Panthers' quotes in the newspaper after the Highland game expressed concern and urgency and that's exactly the attitude they need going to Hobart.

Can they reach the state finals? They have a slim chance. They'd have to win at Hobart and at Bishop Dwenger (11-0), plus they'd have to beat Lowell (10-1) in Griffith. This is still a young team. I give them no more than a 5% shot to reach the finals.

5.) 4A Hobart (8-3)
2006 (10-2), 2005 (6-6), 2004 (9-2), 2003 (5-7)

HOBART - I don't think there's much difference between Griffith and Hobart, but the Brickies certainly faced a tougher foe Friday (10-26-2007). Hobart ran for 300 yards to beat Hammond 21-13, but the Brickies fumbled four times. Josh Huddleston ran 25 times for 250 yards as the Brickies led all the way, turning back the Hammond city champs. Huddleston (109 carries, 835 yards) has taken things to a point where Hobart doesn't need Andrew Jackson (165 carries, 775 yards) to have a 200-yard game to win.

QB Matt Barras (67-of-120, 1,042, 10 TDs) didn't attempt a pass last week in the steady rain, but with clear weather predicted for the section title match with Griffith (8-3), Barras and Bobby James (40 catches, 642 yards, 7 TDs) will be ready. Whenever you think Hobart isn't championship material, you look at the record. No one has scored more than 22 points against Hobart and eight teams have been held to 14 points or less. Everyone looks at their offense, but maybe the defense is what should concern foes. I still have health concerns here and that's why, for at least one more week, they'll be behind Griffith.

Can they reach the state finals? Outside chance. They would have to beat Griffith (8-3), win at Lowell (10-1) and possibly at Bishop Dwenger (11-0), too. I like their power outdoors in November, though. This strikes me as a very good bad weather team if they are healthy. With the health in question, I give them the same odds Lowell has: 10%

6.) 5A Chesterton (6-4)
2006 (5-6), 2005 (3-8), 2004 (5-5), 2003 (7-4)

CHESTERTON - Chesterton ended the season with consecutive losses 38-10 and 21-0 to Merrillville. With the Pirates (10-1) at No. 4 in the state, it's hard to devalue Chesterton just because their season ended early. You'll see Clark ahead of them in some polls in NW Indiana and that's just not the real world. QB Alex Beierwalter (120-of-220, 1,670 yards, 11 TDs) completed his third year on the varsity as an all-area player and his graduation, as that of Alex Sarkisian at Valparaiso and Blake Mascarello at Crown Point will change the style of play in the Duneland Athletic Conference. The cause may have been lost here when Austin Bower (14 catches, 165 yards) was injured and disabled in early September. Zach Carnahan (264 carries, 910 yards) barely missed the 1,000-yard mark rushing. You're looking at a major rebuilding job here, but they did beat a Lake Central (7-4) team that Valpo and Portage lost to.

7.) 3A ANDREAN (8-3)
2006 (8-3), 2005 (8-2), 2004 (13-2), 2003 (12-1)

MERRILLVILLE - The 59ers splashed through the rain to slap down Knox 26-7 as Kyle Kovach picked up 201 yards on 35 carries. There's been a seasonal change in philosophy here. Senior QB Austin Sutter had been throwing the ball 20 times a game and now Kovach (5-9, 160) is running 20 times a game. This is a shrewd change of pace, because the weather might have kicked Andrean out of the tournament last Friday had they not leaned on Kovach weeks ago. The 59ers still have Austin Sutter (128 of 226, 1,783 yards, 20 TDs, 16 interceptions) ready if the November weather comes up good, but it's the balanced multiple offense here that makes Andrean a true state finals threat. The 59er defense has allowed just 690 yards passing which probably reflects the non-passing nature of the league they play in but senior cornerback John Kennedy did intercept three passes against Knox. That pass defense will challenge pass-happy Clark and Craig Fruth (83-of-219, 2,343 yards, 19 TDs) in the Sectional Nine title game this Friday. But this is a favorable schedule. The Niners can host the regional and semistate if they get past this game in Hammond.

Can they reach the state finals? Yes. They could get the regional and semistate at home. They would host South Bend St. Joseph's (9-2). Andrean has shown the running attack they need in the past three weeks. I like the versatility on offense and a consistently good defense. Understand that I'm not talking about them beating Bishop Chatard. But to reach the state finals, I think they have a 50-50 shot.

8.) 5A Lake Central (7-4)
2006 (4-6), 2005 (2-8), 2004 (1-9), 2003 (1-9)

ST. JOHN - LC took advantage of a bad weather night and battled through a scoreless second half to beat Valparaiso 14-7. The Indians had a strong offensive night with 300 total yards, but it was the defense, which held the Vikings to just 11 yards rushing that won the game. Junior QB Bo Dempsey (66-of-141, 991 yards) hit 6-of-10 for 154 yards with no interceptions last week in the rain. LC is a dangerous team, because with injured senior running back Tony Morang (100 carries, 522 yards) back in the lineup, they are a run-based squad with a physical defense. They're the epitome of a bad weather team. The Indians split with Valpo, losing in good weather and winning in bad weather. November in NW Indiana is all about bad weather. LC's has lost eight in a row to Merrillville (10-1), and sure, they're overmatched this Friday, but it's a regional championship game at home. They should look at it as a reward for the first winning season in six years.

Can they reach the state finals? Honestly? No. They have no chance. They average 19 points a game and they haven't beaten anyone with a record of better than 6-5. If LC can finish 7-5, it's been a big comeback season.

9.) 5A Valparaiso (6-5)
2006 (3-6), 2005 (5-5), 2004 (6-5), 2003 (5-6)

VALPARAISO - Valparaiso, which beat Lake Central 17-14 two weeks ago, lost 14-7 in the rain at LC to end their season. The Vikings fell to something they were vulnerable to. Probably the best passing team in the DAC, Valpo ran into a post-season night when it rained the entire game. Senior Alex Sarkisian (167-of-300, 2,373 yards, 20 TDs) was held to 14-of-31 for 196 yards in his final game. Scott Rastovic (57 catches, 1,056 yards) closed the season as a 1,000-yard receiver, a rarity in the DAC, and the Vikings have the 'comfort' of knowing that two of the teams they lost to (Merrillville (10-1) and Penn (11-0) are big-time sectional title favorites. The problem for Valpo all year was the run defense, which was never solved, and I think it will be solved by new people in 2008.

10.) 4A Hammond (9-2)
2006 (2-10), 2005 (1-10), 2004 (2-8), 2003 (1-9)

HAMMOND - Hammond had a strong finish, losing 21-13 at Hobart in the mud in the 4A Sectional Nine semifinals. To finish with an eight-point loss to Hobart (8-3) and a 20-point loss to Lowell (10-1), the two co-champions of the Northwest Crossroads Conference (NWCC). 12 penalties hurt the Wildcats on the road and the rain crippled a smaller, speed team. But it was a return-to-glory season for the Cats and I hope they got a trophy for that Hammond city championship. David Moore (117 carries, 1,334 yards, 17 TDs) will be very hard to replace. But with a schedule that will still be softer in the first five weeks than it will be later on, the purple boys can rebuild without falling too far from that 9-2 perch.