Week 1 Picks:  2009 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith

August 16, 2009

'Mr. Picker'
Week One (1) picks - 2009:  Not much change is expected this year as the power in Northwest Indiana football, which has switched to South Lake County and Porter County over the last decade, will continue.  Even the sub-.500 teams outside the Gary-Hammond-East Chicago area can defeat the north Lake County squads now almost all the time.

What will change this?  New charter schools in Gary (Bowman and soon the 21st Century Academy and a new proposed Hammond charter school) and elsewhere will shift some of the balance of athletic power again in the next decade.

For now, the increase in artificial turf (now in Michigan City and Hobart) adds to the speed of the game and decreases field conditions as a 'picking' factor.  The mood has changed about fake grass.  Some who saw it as a luxury are now trying to figure out some way on earth to get it.  The folks with grass fields are the ones losing money now.

As always, in week one pick teams with returning quarterbacks.  Home field does not mean as much early in the year as it does later.  The simplest thing to do is to pick a team with a good running back because that's the easiest offense to operate early.

I'm not going to pick Lew Wallace vs. Chesterton, Roosevelt at Michigan City or Gary West Side at Hobart.  The Gary teams can't win those games.  They are out-manned and haven't prepared anywhere near as long.  I wish the Gary schools would begin the season with each other because they don't give themselves a real chance to bounce back after a 55-0 loss on opening night.  Either way, I'm not gong to pick obviously noncompetitive games.
    
But you never ever know what's going to happen in the first two weeks where you do not know the teams and, in a lot of cases, you do not know the opponents. 

'Mr. Picker's' Recent Picking Record
 

2008 (final) OVERALL:  145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

Gavit at Calumet

GARY (8-21-2009) Gavit's only won six games in three years, but they didn't play Calumet.  I believe this game is the rebirth of an old series now due to the closing of Wirt, a regular Gavit foe.  Both schools will debut largely rookie teams, but Calumet needs a few more weeks.  I like the power running attack of Gavit in this one.

Gavit 28, Calumet 12

Kankakee Valley at Rensselaer

RENSSELAER (8-21-2009) The Kougars return QB Zack Overby and hard running halfback Dylan Patrick (175 carries, 1,233 yards, 12 TDs) but the Bombers also have a power back in Ben Ahler (5-10, 220) who  rushed for 900 yards in 2008.  The difference?  Two anchors in the Rensselaer defensive line: Bubba McElroy (5-10, 270) and Ben Davisson (6-9, 310).  The Bombers won this game by 21 last year and it may not be much closer this time.

Rensselaer 21, Kankakee Valley 7


Bowman Academy at River Forest
 

HOBART TOWNSHIP (8-21-2009) Bowman was 0-8 last year, but they played strong teams and they had no senior class in the three-year old school in 2008 so EVERYBODY is back.  River Forest returns 17 starters, but they were 1-9 in three of the last five seasons.  I'd really like to see Bowman get their first ever win here (they were 0-2 in 2007), but RF has a returning QB and lots of experience on the offensive line.  This will be one of the more entertaining games of the night, but Bowman won't win just yet.

River Forest 42, Bowman Academy 28


Clark at Whiting

WHITING (8-21-2009) This is a good idea.  These teams should play to START the year instead of meeting in October like they traditionally have.  It's a neighborhood game like New Prairie/LaPorte, North Newton/South Newton, KV/Rensselaer or CP/Lowell and to make it the season opener creates early excitement about football, sometimes before school opens.
Here's one of my keys.  Whiting has a lot of folks back, but in week one, go with the senior returning QB: Micah Rooke of Clarke threw for 2,200 yards in 2008 and they beat Whiting by 30.  Here's another high-scoring opening night showcase.

Clark 40, Whiting 21


Wheeler at Highland

HIGHLAND (8-21-2009) Wheeler was 9-0 last year, but they were eliminated on day one of the post-season.  To be honest, they could do that again.  Wheeler graduated a lot of skill players, but returned four offensive linemen.  They are bigger and stronger than many teams they see.  Highland is rebuilding and they'll have trouble against the run.

Wheeler 27, Highland 20


Hammond at East Chicago

EAST CHICAGO (8-21-2009) Another scoreboard-friendly opening night match of basketball schools.  Hammond returns QB Antwan McGee (6-2, 190) who passed for 1,200 yards last season.  The Cats return most of their offensive line and they'll need those boys against EC, which is big and fast defensively.  EC won this game 28-0 last year, but if there's an opening night upset, here it is.

Hammond 26, East Chicago 24


North Newton at South Newton
 

KENTLAND (8-21-2009) I have never seen this game in person.  I hear they used to have a great rivalry before South Newton dominated in this decade, including a 34-0 win last year.  The Spartans return 14 starters for this one and guard Danny Voss (6-1, 300) is one of three returning offensive linemen.  But the boys from the 'South' have 1A all-stater Tyler Lowe who was 136-of-290 for 2,083 yards and 20 TDs last season.  If the weather is good, the offenses should put on a show here, too.

South Newton 35, North Newton 20

 

South Central at LaVille
 

LAKEVILLE (8-21-2009) Laville returns more starters on offense than anybody except Bowman and they should alter last year's 3-8 record.  South Central defeated LaVille in the season opener and lost to them in the playoff opener.  But the Satellites are the bigger team and they return hard-running Ethan Biggs (5-11, 190) who gained 1,151 yards on 197 carries in his freshman season.  Go with the team with the returning QB and that's SC with Bryant Hoover.

South Central 28, LaVille 14

 

Lake Station at North White

MONON (8-21-2009) Is this the year Lake Station finally defeats North White??  The Vikings have won six in a row in this series, but they may have to start some freshmen (that's the way it is at 1A schools) and Lake Station has four offensive linemen returning.  I think this game will be close, but with both sides starting rookie QBs and a long road trip for Lake Station, I think the home team wins here.

North White 16, Lake Station 12

 

ANDREAN at Bishop Noll
 

HAMMOND (8-21-2009) Andrean returns most of the offense including QB Richard Schmidt (60 of 123, 772 yards) plus three top receivers and four offensive linemen.  Noll is breaking in a new QB and  they have eight starters back on defense.  Andrean is the defending sectional champ and they have most players back from that team.  Plus, the 59ers have won this Catholic 'Super Bowl' game 12 years in a row.  I think Andrean starts well here on the road.

ANDREAN 42, Bishop Noll 20


New Prairie at LaPorte

LaPORTE  (8-21-2009) The Cougars return veteran QB David Siddall and he knows their option offense. But LaPorte brings back QB Dustin DeMuth (69 of 147 1,105 yards) and four offensive linemen.  I think LaPorte will contend for the DAC title.  This is a neighborhood rivalry game that never seems to end as predicted, but LaPorte figures to win a high-scoring match here.

LaPorte 38, New Prairie 28


Morton at Griffith

GRIFFITH (8-21-2009) This game is considered a rivalry, even though Morton never wins it.  Griffith has defeated Morton 10 times in the last five seasons.  Is this the year the Governors break through?  Maybe.  Morton is breaking in a new QB while Griffith is big and physical defensively.  I believe halfback Ed Johnson (5-9, 161) is not playing for the Panthers, but they have other backs.  Morton isn't usually ready to play Griffith in August.  They come much closer in October.

Griffith 35, Morton 26


CROWN POINT at LOWELL
 

LOWELL (8-21-2009) Two new QBs here behind two new offensive lines.  This can't be a high scoring game.  Lowell halfback Brandon Grubbe will get the ball a lot as the Devils begin their quest for an 11th consecutive winning season.  CP was 3-7 last year and they'll break in soph QB Joey Hopman.  But the Bulldog defense only allowed 17 points a game in 2008.  This is a game Crown Point might win later in the season, but not now.

LOWELL 17, CROWN POINT 9

 

Munster at Lake Central
 

ST. JOHN (8-21-2009) Munster had a very satisfying 7-4 season in 2008 while LC, let's just say, did not.  I think the Indians rebound behind veteran QB Ryan Hennessey (93 of 202, 1,076 yards) and some good skill players.  Munster has good size, but a new QB in Josh Lukoshus.  The Mustangs may repeat their 2008 success, but they won't repeat their win over LC.
 

Lake Central 27, Muster 20


Portage at Mishawaka Marian
 

MISHAWAKA (8-21-2009) Marian is coming off a losing season and they may be in over their heads a little against Portage.  I think the Indians are very skilled with a big offensive line and versatile offensive threats Zach Huston (QB) and Jake Dixon (RB).  Portage has a very difficult schedule and they need this game, considering what's ahead.  I think Marian needs a few weeks to get going.

Portage 35, Marian 14


Penn at Valparaiso

VALPARAISO (8-21-2009) The top match on opening night matching the Duneland Conference favorite against the perennial Northern Indiana Conference champion.  Nobody in the DAC has a better QB returning than Valpo with Zack Livovich (6-6, 218), who was 85 of 131, for 1,181 yards last year.  Four other skill position players return and the Vikings are very big and strong defensively, especially on the perimeter.  Penn  has a lot of holes to fill, but one of them is not at linebacker where Cody Piotrowski made 125 tackles last year and at kicker where all-state candidate Alan Sinclair comes back after booting 12 field goals and averaging 51 yards per kickoff.  Valpo won 10-9 in OT last year and they'll win by more this time.

Valparaiso 24, Penn 16


Warren Central at MERRILLVILLE
 

MERRILLVILLE (8-22-2009) The top match up of Saturday night as the Pirates try to avenge a 42-0 loss to Warren in Indianapolis last year.  A 5-time state champ, Warren Central will bring 100 players, including senior QB Derek Hart (6-5, 205) who was 92 of 195 for 1,309 yards last year.  But it's the defense that is the problem as WC's foundation is tackles Malcolm Brunell (6-3, 340) and Elijah Jones (6-2, 300).  Speedy Shakir Bell (5-8, 185) will look to break into the secondary.  Merrillville returns part time starter Zach Raspopovich at QB with 1,000-yard rusher Denzell Pierce.  The defense is led by DAC heavyweight wrestling champ James Travis (6-0, 238) and three-year starter Marcus Howard (5-8, 212).  Kicker Mike Enghofer is very highly regarded.  There should be one 'Saturday Night (or Thursday Night) Special' every week and this is a game that all region football players and coaches (not to mention fans) can attend.  The Pirates pulled off a big upset over Warren two years ago, but that's a lot to ask again.

Warren Central 28, MERRILLVILLE 16