 |
2A Regional Preview:Girls High School BasketballA USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith(2-14-2006) |
|
|
2A Regional Preview:Girls High School BasketballA USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith(2-14-2006) |
|
2A
Rensselaer Regional
2-18-2006
at Rensselaer - 9:30 a.m. (CST)
BOONE
GROVE (14-10) vs. Rensselaer (19-4)
North Montgomery (17-5) vs. Westview (21-3)
Sagarin
Computer ratings:
1. Rensselaer: 76.76
- schedule strength (241)
2. Westview: 74.09 - schedule strength (228)
3. North Montgomery: 68.55 - schedule strength (231)
4. BOONE GROVE: 61.88 - schedule strength (302)
RENSSELAER
(2-18-2006) Since North Judson was the defending 2A Northern semistate
champion, some may feel Boone benefits from playing Rensselaer instead of
Judson. That's how it would have been since mid-season.
Judson took some heavy injury hits, losing sophomore forward Chelsea Howard for
the year (torn ACL last month and having lead guard Kristen Bolen at 1/2 speed
with an ankle injury) and it was not surprising the Jays did not survive the
sectional. The Bombers have size and ball-handlers and they will be the first
complete team Boone has seen in the post-season. North Montgomery advances
to the regional for a fourth consecutive year but they may wonder what they face
in a Westview team that is 14-0 against 2A teams and 5-2 against 3As.
North Montgomery
(17-5) is now a four-time defending sectional champ that has never survived the
regional in seven tries. Translated: They always get here and they always lose,
and probably won't win this year either. Forward Ashley Buis averages 14.3
points and 6.2 rebounds during the regular season. The Chargers shoot 32 percent
from 3-point range which is pretty good, but they average 20 turnovers a game
which is a red flag.
North Montgomery plays good teams. they just don't play very many of them. The
Chargers lost 76-34 to 3A No.1 Lebanon and two other losses are in
overtime. The Chargers have won seven in a row but the truth is, six of
those teams have losing records and the other is Seeger (12-9) and that win was
35-34.
Westview (21-3) is
the favorite here. The Warriors are a formidable Elkhart area team which
appears more formidable when you note that they lost their first two games of
the season to 3A Wawasee and 4A Elkhart Memorial. The Warriors have
defeated Jimtown (15-7), Fairfield (13-8) and Central Noble (14-8) all twice
each. Unlike anyone else here, Westview defeated three winning teams at
the sectional and they return to the regional for the second year in a row.
Westview was 20-4 last year, losing 61-58 to eventual state champ North Judson.
Westview confronts you with 6-foot-1 sophomore center Tiffany Fisher (17.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.9 blocked shots) who scored 28 points in last week's sectional game against John Glenn. Guard Michelle Haney (11 .5 points, 4.3 assists.) has 35 three-point baskets and shoots 84% (87 of 103) from the foul line.
Fisher
is the interesting player. She is shooting an incredible 68% from the field (161
of 234) and she has not attempted a 3-point shot all year. That means you
need a post defense or you're going to get wiped out single-handedly by this
girl. The Warriors have a classic inside-outside game and the schedule has
been strong. With that said, junior Jina Hite threw in a three-pointer
from beyond 25 feet at the buzzer to rescue Westview 40-39 in the sectional
title game late last Saturday. More so than any of the other teams in this
year's Rensselaer Regional, Westview is very lucky to still be here.
Rensselaer (19-4) is
a physical team with good lead guards and they survived the state's most
successful 2A regional. Senior forward Reagan Kaane (12.5 points, 5.9
rebounds) anchors the team with the 5-9 Streitmatter sisters, Andrea and Amy.
Andrea Streitmatter is a center while Amy Streitmatter (8.5 points, 30-85
3-point baskets) is a wing shooter.
The lead guards are junior Allison Malone (6.4 points, 4.3 assists) and sophomore backup Jenna Rodibaugh, both sisters of Rensselaer football stars. Junior Courtney Mayer (9.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.8 steals) is another key starter.
On the regular season, Rensselaer shots 35% from 3-point range but one 58% from the foul line and that is a big factor. The Bombers did hit 30 of 41 from then line against Judson and you know they'll get calls on their home court. The Bombers have played a good schedule but they seem to do well against 1/2 court teams and they appear susceptible to fast-breaking squads.
Big
forwards Meyer and Kanne combined for 30 points against North Judson so there's
no secret about what Rensselaer wants to do. Rensselaer out rebounded Judson
38-29 but the Bombers did not play well on offense in the sectional title,
scoring just 10 field goals.
Boone Grove (14-10)
is the 'wild card' here surviving an early seven-game losing streak. and
beating rival Wheeler 38-31 in the Bishop Noll Sectional title game.
Everything revolves around 5-5 lead guard Cortney Flanigan, who has been NW
Indiana's dominant player since the first of the year. Flanigan (18
points, 5.0 assists, 6.0 rebounds) scored 26 of Boone's 38 points against
Wheeler and she was the MVP of the Porter County Conference (PCC) tournament
last month.
Flanigan's
strength is her ability to penetrate and her physical strength which helps her
survive hands-on defenders. She is an 80% foul shooter and a 50% shooter from
the field. Wheeler defended Flanigan well but some teams truly have been
asleep at the switch against Flanigan in the last month treating her simply as
they would any other good player. A concerted effort must be made to take
the ball out of her hands (straight double-team in the front court).
2006 Boone is very similar to the sophomore-laden team they had in 2003 when
they advanced to the semistate before losing to state champ Shenandoah. The
Wolves have, on paper had superior teams in 2004 and 2005 but those groups were
beaten in the sectional final game. Boone's pivotal player is 5-10 center
Kara Kessler who has to score and rebound against tough front lines. Kessler and
5-8 sophomore sister Kristyn Kessler, will have to get tough here against a
Rensselaer squad known for rough play. Wing shooter Jessica Dowdy (31-70, 44.2%)
was shut down against Wheeler and she has to get open no matter how much
defenses key on her.
The victory disguised the fact that Boone also did not play well on offense in the sectional title game. The Wolves made just 9-of-35 from the floor and surviving because Wheeler was equally inept. Boone coach Candy Wilson went to a straight double team (triangle and 2) on Bearcat star Becca Bruszewski to held her to a season-low seven points but they will face total team in Rensselaer. The Kessler sisters and 5-10 Brittney Roach must hit the boards against the Bomber front line or Boone wont get many rebounds. Boone has played a good schedule and I would not say that it is impossible that Flanigan carries Boone through two games Saturday because both Rensselaer and probable finals foe Westview are post-oriented teams which may not have a 'glove' to slap on Flanigan.
But
Kara Kessler and Dowdy have to take and make shots for Boone to last much
longer.
WHAT
WILL HAPPEN...
North Montgomery-Westview appears to be a mismatch. Westview has turned back winning teams while North Montgomery's record is about as misleading as all those Chicago Bears' slots in the Pro Bowl.
North Montgomery has been beaten three consecutive times by 10 points or more in the regional semifinals and they have to be extremely tired of that. But if they can't contain Westview's young center Tiffany Fisher, the Chargers don't have a post defender, they are going to go home feeling like that guy Dick Cheney shot in the face with buckshot.
The Chargers have to put double-team pressure on the 6-foot-1 Miller inside and keep the pace of this game as slow as possible. That's been known to happen in a Saturday morning neutral site playoff game but I'm not sure how North Montgomery, which has played six 1A schools yet still averages only 56 points a game, can score 40 points in this game against a Westview team that has held 14 team to 40 or less. Let's advance Westview into the finals with a low-scoring 10-point victory.
Boone
Grove and Rensselaer meet in the pre-season scrimmage each season and Rensselaer
got the best of it back in November. But the Wolves were an all-new team
then and that wont be the same squad Rensselaer sees Saturday. Boone's
strength of schedule is very low due to a combined four games against River
Forest (3-18), LaCrosse (1-20) and Lake Station (0-19), so they have to
understand (and I believe they do) that facing the Bombers in Rensselaer is a
tough step up. Boone is 5-6 against 1A schools but 8-1 against 2As which may say
something for the state for 2A basketball, in NW Indiana.
I don't see a defensive match or overall quickness on Rensselaer that can
control Flanigan and Dowdy on the perimeter. The Bombers will surely try a
box-and-one defense that will slow the game and control the boards. But Boone
has enough forwards on the bench to rotate against Rensselaer's formidable front
line. The Bombers have played St. Joseph's and Benton Central, two 3A
20-game winners and they will be on their home court, a big advantage in an
early Saturday morning game. But Boone is on a hot streak and Flanigan
controls the game. The Wolves are familiar with Rensselaer's personnel and they
are much more familiar with Rensselaer's floor than they were Bishop Noll's. I
like Boone to rally and advance with a three-point victory.
In the finals, Boone will be confronted by the 6-1 sophomore Fisher, perhaps the
first truly dominant post player they have seen this season. South Central
runs the floor too much to make Anna Kammrath dominant, and Wheeler's 6-2
Bruszewski doesn't stay in the low post. Fisher will force the Wolves to
double-team the low post and they will have to be very smart to stop inside-out
shots from the perimeter. Boone will get a slight home court edge
because they'll be able to go home between games. The Wolves play the first
semifinal and Rensselaer is just 30 minutes to the south so Boone can be home
for lunch.
Boone's wings Jessica Dowdy and Jessica Fauser must win this game by moving
towards the basket and scoring or getting fouled. Boone's Cortney Flanigan
and Westview's Michelle Haney is a top-caliber matchup that may end up in a
draw.
Even
though they lucked out against Jimtown last week, it's hard to see Westview
losing here. They are bigger than Boone and have played a tougher schedule.
Kara Kessler has to win rebounds and fouls from Westview's Tiffany Fisher after
battling Rensselaer's big front line earlier in the day. That's a tall
order.
Boone Grove had success at Rensselaer when they won sectional and regional
titles in 2003 but the regional is as far as they figured to go in 2006.
WESTVIEW
51, BOONE GROVE 43