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3A Twin Lakes Regional Preview:Girls High School BasketballA USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith(2-17-2006) |
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3A Twin Lakes Regional Preview:Girls High School BasketballA USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith(2-17-2006) |
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3A Twin Lakes Regional
Hammond
(15-7) vs. No. 2 (South Bend) St. Joseph's (20-2)
ANDREAN (15-7) vs. Benton Central (21-3)
at Twin Lakes high
school - Monticello, IL 2-18-2006 - 9:00 a.m., CST
Sagarin Computer
ratings
St. Joseph's (96.40) schedule: 69.06*
Benton Central (81.21) schedule :69.23
ANDREAN (70.42) schedule: 61.05
Hammond (64.76) schedule: 53.13
* - the Sagarin computer ratings do not consider games against Illinois teams.
HAMMOND (15-7) Hammond has had a good solid year and they were arguably the best team in their sectional. But, there's no getting around it; they are going to need an absolute thunderbolt to still be playing by the time the sun sets Saturday. Hammond was 15-7 last season and won the sectional title before losing by six points to West Lafayette in the regional.
The Wildcats are athletic with quick guard Reneice Goodman and strong forwards Rachel Davilla and Cena Nasiloski. 5-10 junior forward Denita Phelps comes off the bench sometimes, but I would suspect she'll start Saturday. Denita is a very active player and streak shooter who could match St. Joe's offense. Freshman guard Sancheon White is also athletic and can go to the basket. She is clearly a future star, at least on offense. Hammond is a good rebounding team, but they make a lot of turnovers and are vulnerable to a slowdown, half court game.
St. Joseph's (20-2) does not play a half court game unless they are forced to, although that strategy could change on this day. The defending 3A champs and the three-time defending 3A regional champs are led by two elite players, 5-7 guard Melissa Lechlitner (21.3 ppg.) a four-year Division I point guard going to Notre Dame, plus 5-10 shooting guard Sydney Smallbone (18.7 ppg.), a Division I player going to Tennessee. Up front is 6-foot-5 Kristin Dockery (12.6 points, 8.6 rebounds), a D-1 player who has not yet signed.
No one in the northern part of the state has this level of talent in the starting lineup. St. Joe was in the top-25 in the nation at the start of the year and they are arguably the premier team in the state in any class. Few believe 3A No.1 Lebanon (22-0) has a good chance to beat St. Joe. St Joe has eight girls who stand 5-9 or taller, so out-rebounding them is a tall order. Add that to the fact that Hammond and Benton Central are up tempo teams and St Joe excels at that style and you understand why St. Joe is a big favorite in Monticello Saturday.
Benton Central (21-4) has gotten a boost from 5-foot-6 guard freshman Skyler
Gick (14.5 points, 3.6 steals, 4.8 assists) who scored 60 points in three
sectional games. She teams with 5-5 senior Chauncey Stacy (11.9 points, 3.6
assists) who is the only senior on Benton Central's squad. BC center
Kayla Cripe, a 6-foot-1 sophomore, scored 13 points and added 10 rebounds in
BC's 59-56 win over Western (19-4) in the BC sectional finals. BC
also has 5-11 soph forward Kayla Kepner (11.6 ppg.).
BC is 17 games over .500 because Gick and Stacy are both point guards who can
push the ball up the floor. They are better than average outside shooters.
BC was 4 of 12 from three-point range against Western and 6-of-13 against
Frankfort. Gick scored 21 in that game. You've got to make the post players beat
you on this team because the guards are skilled. The Bison girls are not skilled defenders as the
sectional game final scores suggest. BC
gives up just 48 points a game but they gave up at least 60 in all three playoff
games. This team likes to smoke you in an up-tempo track meet. With a very young
team, BC could choke in a slow down half court struggle.
Andrean (15-7) benefited from a soft sectional and turned back Gary Roosevelt and Kankakee Valley to take the schools' first sectional title since 2002. The 59ers are based on three 5-10 players, insiders Val Tyburski (12.4 ppg.) and Rachel McGinty plus big guard Suzanne Cunningham (6.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.1 steals, 2.6 assists).
A strength for Andrean is that the 59ers have nine effective varsity players. They can go to the bench for 5-8 guard Kelleigh McCrea (7.1 ppg.) and 5-6 long range shooter Courtney Pishkur (17-48, 35.4% - 3-point shots). Marie Harris is available to come in and rebound. The 59ers don't have a great offensive player to go one-on-one. They can't get away from the team concept of passing and screening offensively because individually, they aren't that good.
But the 59ers want a long, slow game. If the refs call it tight and foul trouble hits both benches, Andrean, which has played St. Joseph's plus 4A powers Munster (18-4) and Merrillville (19-3), will be better off.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN...
Hammond is in the wrong place at the wrong time. I know that South Bend Washington (22-1) ran with St. Joseph's and beat them. But Hammond is not 22-1 and they cannot control St. Joe's guards. I'd come up with a combination defense against St. Joe single covering Lechlitner and Smallbone and using a triangle zone around the basket. It's not enough to get close-up on St. Joe's guards. You want to encourage the other three Indians to shoot the ball. The Indians' backcourt can beat you by themselves.
The Wildcats will try to run with St. Joe because that's all they can do. After a short period of success, Hammond will get smoked like a Christmas ham. Realistically, this is a bad matchup that can only go one way. And that way is St. Joe by 20.
In the second semifinal, Andrean will walk it up against Benton Central that
will use superior firepower to gain an early lead. But the 59ers
will recognize that BC is not better than some of the teams they've seen in NW
Indiana. I don't know the matchups but the 5-5 Gick is going to have to
see the 5-10 Cunningham somewhere along the line. I
don't know how many playoff games you can win from the perimeter and more than
one report says Benton Central just does not play much defense. Even Dick
Cheney can get good shots off against them.
If Tyburski can slide into in the low post and score for the 59ers, Hynes and
Pishkur can hit some jumpers, that should allow drivers like Cunningham and McCrea
to slip and
slide to the basket. Defensively, make the forwards shoot the ball. I like Andrean to come from behind and win this second semifinal by four.
In the championship game, I'd like to see a close game between Andrean and St. Joseph's, but I'm not sure how it happens. St. Joe beat Andrean by 35 points in November and by 37 points last season. But there's always a strategy. I'd go "old school." When you can't beat somebody in a whole game, cut the game in half. I'd hold the ball for the first and last minute of each quarter and try to drag the game into the 30s. What you have to do is stop 10-1 or 15-2 runs by the very talented St. Joe team. I'd try to invert my attack, pulling St. Joe's forwards to the perimeter and posting up guards, especially Cunningham, who could score over Lechlitner or Smallbone. The Indians are not known to be patient defensively. They go for the steal a lot. You can get layups against them.
I might even go to an all-guard lineup, spread the floor and use the old
"North Carolina four corners" attack. The 6-5 Dockey has got to guard somebody one on
one and I'm not sure she can. Defensively, let's go back to a matchup
zone or that and two. St. Joe's talent seems to be begging for that.
Truthfully, St. Joe has seen it all. They average 75 points a game against an
unbelievable schedule that included 12 Indiana Class 4A schools and Illinois
Class AA Top-10s No. 6 (Wilmette, IL) Loyola Academy (25-3) and (Chicago, IL)
No. 2 Whitney Young (23-2).
I can see the 59ers cutting last game's margin in half, but that's not saying
much.
No.
2 St. Joseph's 55, ANDREAN 40