20th Indiana State Softball Playoffs Preview

(5-23-2004)

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

The essence of the state playoffs is to know what's coming. Northwest Indiana folks notoriously have tunnel-vision. Like many parents, they know and care only about their kid, their school and their team. They cannot, God Bless them, be in any way impartial when it comes to what's going to happen in the single-elimination state tournament.

So that's where I come in. First of all, here's a little website warning. If you do not want to know if your team has a chance or not. If you want everything to be a surprise, get out of this web site now. There may be some things here you do not want to see.

Traditionally, unless you have a superstar pitcher or come out of a cutthroat league, you don't really have a chance to win the state finals. But with class sports, that's changed a bit. Here are some undeniable truths about state softball.

Your goal has to be to reach the state finals. If you brag about how many 20-win seasons you have, your program has not advanced to the level of state contender. If you've been talking all year about winning the sectional, your program hasn't advanced to the level it needs to be. Come back next year when your GOAL is to reach the state finals. It's not something that occurs by accident.
If your team did not roll up a lot of shutouts during the regular season, you aren't going to win state. Of the last 18 state championship games, 13 were won by shutout, including the last five. You've got to have the pitching and defense to not just shut the other girls down, but shut them out.
If your school's last name is 'Central', pack your bags and call your mom. A school with the last name Central has reached the finals in each of the last five years and 13 times in 19 years. Hanover Central and Lake Central made it last year. In fact LC reached the state finals in 2001, 2002 and 2003. Decatur Central reached the promised land in 1999 and 200O, Warren Central was the first state softball champ and Pike Central reached the title game in 1990. North Central, East Central, Elkhart Central and even Greenfield Central have reached the state softball finals.
If you did not win any games in extra innings this season, you are toast because you will face extra innings in the state tournament. You must be able to make all the plays until the sun goes down. All three state finalists from northwest Indiana last season (Hanover Central, Whiting and Lake Central) won state tournament games in extra innings.
If half of your games are against teams below your class (4A, 3A, 2A and 1A), then you are obviously kidding yourself about winning the state championship. Go get your little prom dress and your high heels and put the bats and the big yellow softballs away. There are no excuses and there are no exceptions. Understand me. Softball can be an activity. Your goal does not HAVE to be to reach the state finals every year. But if you want that big IHSAA trophy, you cannot play smaller schools during the season and beat bigger ones when it counts. That dog won't hunt.
If your team struck out more than 10 times in ANY seven-inning game in the last month, you are a pretender, not a contender. Whiting broke this rule last year, striking out a hellacious amount. But Hanover and LC did not. The caliber of pitching soars in the stated tournament along with the tension. If you strike out a lot, your state tourney hopes are living on 'Fantasy Island.'
If you are undefeated, you are living on borrowed time. No undefeated team has ever won any Indiana state softball title. Seven teams with two losses have won titles and six teams with four losses have won state championships. if you have five losses, you can also plan your early summer vacation. No team with five losses has ever won the state crown.
If your pitcher has pitched more than one no-hitter, you have a chance, no matter how lousy your record it. . Of the 31 state title game, three have ended in no-hitters. Roncalli won the 1999 Class 2A title with 13 losses. They were 12-13 when the state tournament began. Arianna Kurtz pitched a perfect game to win the title game 1-0 over Andrean.

4A at South Bend Adams
South Bend Washington (20-8) vs. LaPorte (3-24)
Michigan City (2-23) vs. South Bend Adams (7-22)
Winner Game 1 vs. Winner Game 2
South Bend Clay (10-15) vs. South Bend Riley (14-9)
Championship: Winner Game 4 vs. Winner Game 3

SOUTH BEND - This is the weakest 4A Sectional in this part of the state with the South Bend City schools and perennial DAC cellar dwellers MC and LaPorte. Washington won just six games (6-20) last year but has roared to life behind freshman Katie Boocher (12-6) and Stacie Skodinski (8-2).

They do not play a DAC caliber schedule but Washington just has to roll through LaPorte, MC or Adams, which just can't get a witness this season with no seniors on the roster. Riley improved over a 15-15 season last year while Clay slipped from 14-13. Riley has the experience to take it all here but these South Bend schools are all rivals. I like Washington, in a breakthrough season, to win the title. To be blunt, however, none of the teams here has played the schedule or exhibited the ability to survive at the regional level. I'm not 100% sure who will win the Merrillville 4A Regional. But I'm 1000% sure than no one from this sectional will.

4A at Penn (6 teams)
May 24 (M) Elkhart Central (8-17) vs. Elkhart Memorial (22-5) 5:30 p.m.
May 24 (M) Penn (17-10) vs. Goshen (9-18) 7:30 p.m.
May 26 (W) Central-Memorial vs. Penn Goshen winner - 5:30 p.m.
May 26 (W) Mishawaka (20-7) vs. Concord (23-5) - 7:30 p.m.
May 28 (F) Penn Sectional tile game - 7:30 p.m.

OSCEOLA - This sectional is the toughest in this part of the state, but somebody's got to do something about Mishawaka star Claire DeVreese (12-5), who pitched a no-hit game Friday (May 21) with 15 strikeouts against Michigan power Lakeshore. DeVreese struck out 301 batters in 2003 and lost 1-0 to Lake Central at the Penn Regional. This year, she has lost three games by identical 1-0 scores.

But Memorial comes in armed with senior RHP Heather Van Galen (11-4), who was 18-3 in 2003. Memorial has won 48 of their last 58 games and starts seven seniors but hasn't won a sectional since 1991. Allison Sears is a three-sport star and an all-state volleyball player. This has been a monster year in sports for Memorial with volleyball reaching the state finals and football going undefeated. The Memorial baseball team (23-2) is ranked No.1 state wide. There is a lot of positive mojo there. Plus Memorial lost 1-0 to Mishawaka in the Penn sectional softball title game last year.

Concord has posted a second consecutive 20-win season behind junior RHP Brittany Hire (12-3), but they were swept in a double-header by Highland and they struck out 12 times against the Trojans' Stephanie Zimny. DeVreese throws harder than Zimny so I think Concord is history, probably in a 2-0 shutout. Penn was the 1999 state champ and 68-18 in three seasons. Penn pitcher Tiffany Krcelich has an ankle injury which she will pitch with this week. The Kingsmen, who lost 2-0 to Lowell and beat Pendleton Heights 4-3 Saturday without Krcelich, should get past Goshen and face Memorial, which will dominate Central. Memorial and Van Galen will edge Penn but Mishawaka and DeVreese should prevail in the title game, on their way to the 2004 Merrillville Regional on June 6.

And to be honest, if DeVreese, a University of Illinois recruit, is feeling good, Mishawaka has state finals potential. While others here could win the sectional, I don't think Penn or Memorial could survive the regional.

4A Lake Central Sectional
May 26 (W) Munster (23-2-1) vs. East Chicago (2-16)
May 27 (Th) Highland (19-5-1) vs. LOWELL (19-8)
May 28 (F) Lake Central (24-3) vs. Munster (24-2-1)
May 29 (S) Championship - 10 a.m.

ST. JOHN - Let's not kid ourselves about who's going to win the first game. East Chicago must make more of a commitment to softball at lower levels or they will NEVER compete here and NEVER is a long, long time.

Highland and Lowell are not similar teams. The Trojans rely on the pitching of senior right-hander Stephanie Zimny, who is the most experienced pitcher in this region and the region leader in strikeouts. Lowell has a faster and more athletic team, but they have to put the ball in play against Zimny or none of that matters. The Devils are the youngest team in the Lake Athletic Conference with sophomores at crucial positions all over the field, but many of those players started as freshman so this is NOT their first playoff game. Junior shortstop and clean-up hitter Amber Roberts is a pivotal player offensively and defensively.

Zimny needs 8-10 strikeouts because Highland has had some problems defensively and Lowell's speed, especially the 2-3 hitters, Liz Martin and Kelly Johnson, who was 3-for-3 against Penn Saturday, will stress the defense. I'm not sure how confident Highland is at the plate but I'm not sure it matters. The Trojans suffered a crushing upset 4-3 to an inferior Hammond team in the sectional semifinals last year. They know they only need three runs with Zimny pitching. She struck out 18 against Portage and 13 last Friday against Crown Point. One of the constants of prep softball is that a player in his or her final game will play with a sense of urgency. Highland beat Lowell 6-2 earlier and Lowell wins an unconventional game with high scoring or lots of errors. This game seems a lot closer after Lowell closed the season with wins over Benton Central 8-3, Penn 2-0 and Pendlteton Heights 2-1 in nine innings Saturday. But if both sides play well, I look for the Trojans to win 3-2 or 3-1 this time.

Munster went undefeated in the Lake Athletic Conference and beat defending champ Andrean 3-2. They have two trademarks, a three pitcher concept is senior Stephanie Andjelich, and junior Lori Andjelich and sophomore Jackie Yerga. The combo has posted 13 shutouts and the idea of using all three pitchers in each game (sometimes it's just two) does not allow batters to see a pitcher two or three times. In a seven inning game, that can overwhelm many hitters. Munster's other trademark this year has been the home run ball. Yerga and Hallie Gibbs both have five HRs, which is probably the equivalent of hitting 30 in major league baseball. Munster has had a regular season where they really could not ask for more. The Mustangs tied Portage 0-0 in seven innings Saturday and the only losses for the Lady Ponies are to Homewood-Flossmoor (16-11) and Lake Central (24-3).

The latter is the problem. Lake Central has been the dominant team in northwest Indiana so far in this decade. In their first year in the Duneland Athletic Conference (DAC), LC swept all 14 league games. LC has lost only to Castle, 3A No. 3 Boonville and (West Lafayette) Harrison. What's behind the curtain here is that Lake Central has played 22 4A schools and Munster has played 13. LC has an undefeated left-hander in Bethany Toyias (13-0) who Munster has never seen. The Mustangs also have to go from the very slow pitching of EC to Toyias, who comes at the hitters from a somewhat unique angle.

LC is a senior dominated team that went to the state finals in 2003 while Munster has two seniors and, like Lowell and Highland, have virtually no recent state tournament experience. Toyias will be pitching in her first playoff game so Munster should score early. But these are not equal teams and they did not play equal schedules. Schedule-wise, Munster has not paid the cost to be the boss. The Ponies are unfortunate that they are paired with the one team they probably can't beat. Look for LC to win 4-2 or 5-2.

In the finals, Lowell, with three left-handed hitters, would have a better shot at Munster than LC and Toyias. Highland and Zimny might actually do better against LC, a team that has not seen them as much as Munster has. But all this will prove irrelevant. LC, with Toyias, has the dominant senior pitcher that Highland has and the powerful middle of the batting order (Kari Duncan, Katie Mitchell and Stacy Adamski) that Munster has. Plus, LC has played a tougher schedule than anyone here.

Lowell has played a great schedule but they are too young to beat LC. Highland isn't a strong hitting team and they would have to win 1-0 or 2-1 here. On their home field, it will be a major surprise if Lake Central does not advance and LC is the only team here that could win the state title. They are the only one who has played a state caliber schedule.

4A Valparaiso Sectional
May 24 (M) Hobart (15-10) vs. Valparaiso (12-14)
May 24 (M) Portage (21-4-2) vs. Chesterton (20-5)
May 26 (W) Hobart or Valpo vs. Portage or Chesterton - 4 p.m.
May 26 (W) Crown Point (8-19) vs. Merrillville (13-15) - 6 p.m.
May 28 (F) Championship - 4:30 p.m.

VALPARAISO - This sectional cries out for seeding because the top two teams meet on opening night. Portage defeated Chesterton twice, 5-1 and 1-0 to finish second in the DAC behind Lake Central. Freshman right-hander Meaghan Gutierrez (13-1) pitched six shutout innings against Highland in an 11-inning win last week. Gutierrez, who recovered from a broken nose this month, could be ready to start against Chesterton. But junior Tracy Markwell shut out Kokomo 7-0 and Peru 1-0 on April 15.

Portage actually had Munster beaten 2-0 Saturday, scoring two runs in the eighth inning but rain ended the day and the score reverted to a 7-inning scoreless tie. Portage has been very good lately but I don't believe momentum means anything, especially when you are playing a rival.

The Trojans lost 6-2 to Munster last week, giving up four runs in the seventh inning and committing, a reported nine errors. I think Chesterton, led by Amber Paz (17-42, .405) and Kayla Vargo (31-74, .419, 20 RBIs) is a better offensive team and that's going to make a difference here. Seniors Holly Melton (26-72, .361, 16 stolen bases) and Alicia Babcock (20-65, .308) need big hits and RHP Laura DeLeon (13-6) led the DAC in strikeouts. Frankly, these teams are almost equal but I don't like freshmen starting at pitcher or catcher in playoff games. I also don't think Portage is good enough to beat Chesterton three times. I like the Trojans to win 4-3.

Hobart and Valparaiso are also virtually even. Valpo began the year with no experienced pitching but Allicia Ellenberger and Autumn Blankenbaker have improved enough to keep the Vikings near the .500 mark. Hobart probably should consider Munster's three-pitcher concept with Sarah Bodhaine (5-6), Kattie Keil (5-1) and Aubri Polak (5-2). Hobart was 5-0 and has split 20 games since then. Last week, Valpo beat Hobart 2-1 on a bases-loaded walk and Hobart's offense deserted them late in the year, scoring just seven runs in their last five games. The way these teams are headed, Valparaiso will win 5-3 or 6-3.

The 'bye' teams should be excited about their draw. Merrillville and Crown Point split two games during the regular season and both might consider this season a success by just reaching the final game. CP was 2-7 after nine games so 8-19 isn't that bad. RHP Shelley Kurcz (4-9) has pitched some strong games and she will probably have to pitch another one because Melissa Ferrara (4-6) and Christina Horvat (0-3) both have minor injuries. Merrillville won their three-team pool in the Twin Lakes Invitational and was very competitive in April's Penn Invitational. Freshman Amy Vargas (6-9) has been a plus, firing the ball hard inside on right handed hitters. In the final week the Pirates lost to Portage 2-1, Munster 10-0 and beat Valpo 1-0.

CP-Merrillville will be played like a championship game because the winner knows they are a heavy underdog against the other side of the bracket. I like Crown Point, with a little better offense, to win a wild game, maybe 7-5 or 7-6.

Either Chesterton or Portage will win this sectional. They are significantly better than everyone else here. Valparaiso has a better chance to upset Chesterton than Crown Point does. CP has been bombed twice by Portage 10-0 and 9-1.

I've got to believe that the nine errors Chesterton committed last Thursday were a product of some JV players in the lineup against a potential regional foe. Again, momentum is irrelevant. Chesterton will hold up the trophy Friday night and they have an outside chance to win the regional because of their familiarity with Lake Central.