2008 NWI's BASEBALL WEEK-4, Top-10 Poll

MERRILLVILLE (5-03-2008) - The trick is to rank teams that do not play each other. Munster and Griffith go head-to-head. Crown Point and Lake Central go head-to-head. But Andrean does not play Crown Point or Lake Central. Boone Grove does not play Andrean or Lake Central. LaPorte does not play Boone or Andrean.

Leaving aside for a moment, why those match ups do not occur, you then have to judge the teams anyway. And when they keep playing extra inning games, how does that prove who's better? Kinda like the Democratic race for the presidential nomination.

It all gets back to who you choose to play. Andrean chooses to go down to Indianapolis to take on Brebeuf in the Brebeuf Invitational knowing that most times, they'll come back with a loss. This week Andrean went to Indy and 10-runned Brebeuf, who was rated No. 1 at the time, then 7th-ranked Norwell, the defending 3A state champ and Providence, which just happened to be there. You can't ignore that.

On the other hand, due the outdated darkness rules in the Duneland Conference, 4A No. 1 Crown Point played 4A No. 9 Lake Central three times, tying 5-5 in eight innings, tying 10-10 in seven innings and finally winning 22-8 in six innings. Both teams got a big boost in strength of schedule because they got two more games against a Top-10 team than they thought they would. So, how do you rate them?

It goes back to one of the most overlooked ratings factors in sports. An overtime game is basically a tie. It has to be or it doesn't go to overtime. Crown Point played two ties and three wins last week. Andrean was 3-0 in slaughter-rule wins over the weekend. Add in the factor that Andrean is a team of returning regular players while CP has five varsity rookies and you have to give the 59ers the best of the early season so far. LaPorte has been No. 1, but they weren't so good that it wasn't possible for someone to pass them. In one game, they probably would be the choice. But Andrean and CP are having remarkable seasons.

The No. 1 factor to remember is: Nothing that happens in April has any bearing on anything in baseball. Ask the Detroit Tigers. Ask Kerry Wood. What's your record after May 1? That's all that anyone is going to remember.

Let's take a look at how the Top-10 looks heading into the only month that really matters.

1. (3A) ANDREAN (12-1)
25-10 (2007), 25-8 (2006), 33-2 (2005), 26-8 (2004), 27-7 (2003)

MERRILLVILLE: If you go play two Top-10 teams and 10-run them both, you are playing at an elevated level. Andrean won their 11th consecutive game 10-0 over Lowell Monday (4-28-2008), but it was a 14-2 neutral site win over 3A No. 7 Norwell and a 13-2 win at 3A No.1 Brebeuf that keyed their move to the top spot. The Niners' Ken Mahala hit three homers in three weekend games. Adam Norton allowed six hits against Brebeuf and the Lowell win was the fifth consecutive game where the Niners had scored 10 or more. They have outscored 13 foes 139-23. Andrean was predicted to be very good. This is no surprise and the early 4-2 loss at Penn (13-1) isn't that big a deal considering Penn's 13-1 won-loss record. We'll know more after the Elmhurst Tourney in Fort Wayne on May 3, but I think we'll know more of the same. If the Niners win that tourney, there's no one else on the schedule who can beat them. Crown Point would beat everyone here in a 3-game series, but in a one game playoff, the 59ers are probably better.

MID-SEASON OUTLOOK: Very good. Only Griffith stands in their way at the sectional and it's unlikely Clark can handle them in a one-game regional. The Niners are the 3A regional favorite and a with a core of junior players, they should be even better in 2009.

2. (4A) CROWN POINT (14-1-2)
29-3 (2007), 22-9 (2006), 21-12 (2005), 17-11 (2004), 23-10-1 (2003)

CROWN POINT: The 'trilogy of darkness' last week was unprecedented and will eventually be a boost for Crown Point. But the two ties doesn't allow them to hold onto the top spot with Andrean playing as well as they are. This is the second consecutive year that the Bulldogs have been undefeated after 15 games and that's a shock, because 5 of the 8 position players are new and three of the five starting pitchers are varsity rookies. Mike Kozlowski has been the DAC's top player with a .400 batting average, five home runs and a 3-0 record pitching. Nick Hladek had 18 walks after 15 games to go with a .400 average and four home runs. Sophomores Josh Negele, Jeff Limbaugh and Scot Donley have all been surprisingly effective and lefty Blake Mascarello (4-0) has led the pitching staff. Obviously it is much more difficult to go unbeaten through 15 games in consecutive years than it is to win an eight team single-elimination sectional. But you don't win anything that matters in April. You want CP to pass a test like Andrean did last weekend and here it comes. CP faces Plymouth at 3:30 p.m. (EST) in the semifinals of the Plymouth Invitational Saturday (May 2) and they could and should see Penn (13-1) in the 8:30 p.m. (EST) championship game.

MID-SEASON OUTLOOK: Good, but with a caution. It defies logic that an all-new (or 60% new) team can be undefeated after 16 games. But that's what CP did. The Bulldogs have 5 capable starting pitchers, so a repeat of 2007's 3-loss season does seem possible. You worry about them in a one-game playoff scenario because this is largely an inexperienced club. But with three above-average sophomores already on the varsity and MVP candidate Kozlowski only a junior, the long range prospects for CP are even better than their chances this year.

3. (4A) LAKE CENTRAL (12-3-2)
16-12 (2007), 19-10 (2006), 28-3 (2005), 24-7 (2004), 23-6-1 (2003)

ST. JOHN: Lake Central led Crown Point 3-1, but tied them 5-5. They led Crown Point 10-2 but tied them 10-10. LC then led CP 8-5, but lost 22-8. That series put down some hurt that a 10-9 win over Hanover Central and a 12-7 win over Portage could not erase. LC is an offensive powerhouse, no doubt, but they can't seem to stop good teams late in the game. Ryan Boss and Eric Summers had long home runs against CP. Frank Ruvoli took over for Devin DeYoung at catcher and LC was still competitive. The relief pitching, other than Roger Sammon, has not been good. LC topped Valpo 7-5 Wednesday (4-30-2008) to end the month and the runs do keep on coming.

OUTLOOK: Not as good as the record would indicate. LC plays far too many high-scoring games. You don't win high-scoring games in the post-season, because you don't play high-scoring games in the post-season. Forget wins and losses the rest of the year. Watch how many runs this team allows. Can they win a low-scoring game from Munster?

4. (4A) LaPorte (11-6)
22-9 (2007), 25-6 (2006), 30-5 (2005), 25-7 (2004), 22-10 (2003)

LaPORTE: There are problems here. LaPorte made key defensive mistakes in an 8-6 loss to Chesterton (9-3) at the US Steelyard in Gary. The Slicers did dominate Valparaiso 8-1 behind right-hander Ian Nielsen (4-1) and they handed Crown Point their first loss Wednesday behind Ian Nielsen (5-1). LaPorte also lost to Michigan City 3-2 Monday, the first time MC has beaten LaPorte in 5 years and only the third time in 32 games. Here's a team that has played tough competition, but they aren't improving, while teams like CP and Andrean clearly are. Scott Upp (3-2) took the loss Tuesday and he has proven to be a capable third starter. But the Slicers just have not produced runs the way they should have.

OUTLOOK: Not bad. Again, post-season games will be low-scoring and nobody in NW Indiana can roll out two pitchers as good as Ian Nielsen and Neal Hackett. But LaPorte isn't scoring many runs and they aren't getting all that many base runners. This is a younger team than it might seem, but they've gone to extra innings with CP twice and that's the team they need to beat to win the sectional. LaPorte is the sectional host and that does matter.

5. (2A) BOONE GROVE (11-2)
25-6-1 (2007), 26-4 (2006), 24-7 (2005), 17-12 (2004), 21-7 (2003)

PORTER TOWNSHIP: Boone finally got to play a lot of games and they won them all. The Wolves smoked out Hobart 8-2 after winning their own tourney 13-2 over Rensselaer and 13-1 over Lowell. Nick DiMarco had three more hits against Hobart in the Steelyard in Gary. Lefty Wayland Roach (5-0) is gaining valuable experience and Kyle Ferber gives signs he is approaching his level of last season when he was the MVP of the PCC. This is always a very confident team and I believe that surprises the larger schools they play. They still have 3A power Northwestern and 4A heavy hitters Munster and Crown Point. The CP game on May 9 is probably the biggest regular season game left on the board this year because Boone will jump high up into the Top-10 next week.

OUTLOOK: Very good. Remember, they aren't in the same sectional with Hanover (10-3), Wheeler and Bishop Noll anymore. Culver and Hebron are down. Boone appears to be much better than North Judson. Boone is NW Indiana's biggest favorite to win the sectional. The only fear is that the Wolves don't have any power. In a warm, windy day slugfest, they are at a disadvantage.

6. (4A) Chesterton (11-3)
20-6 (2007), 15-13 (2006), 14-13 (2005), 18-9 (2004)

CHESTERTON: I still don't totally buy it, but base hits don't lie. Chesterton ran another win steak to 3 with a 7-3 win over Valparaiso Tuesday (4-29-2008). Glenn Peterson (2-0) and Kevin Gates combined for a five-hitter against the Vikings. The Trojans have lost only to Jefferson (14-2), Crown Point (14-1-2) and Portage (7-7) and they lost to Portage by a 12-11 score on a day when the wind was blowing out. The 8-6 win over LaPorte (coach Jack Campbell's 600th career win) made the Trojans a player in the DAC race. They are one game behind first place Crown Point, a team they'll see again on May 8. They do not appear to have the players that LaPorte, LC and CP do, but they're up there with them.

OUTLOOK: Again, I don't totally buy it. This team has made three errors or more in a game six times this year. They've played a tough schedule and the wins are there, but in an eight-team big school sectional, the Trojans have to catch and throw the ball better than they have. Where Chesterton is in the standings may be a reflection of the overall strength of the DAC this year as opposed to their own excellence. We'll see after May 1.

7. (4A) Munster (9-6)
22-7 (2007), 23-11 (2006), 19-14 (2005), 23-6 (2004), 20-10 (2003)

MUNSTER: The Mustangs lost three in a row, including a two-day suspended 16-12 loss to arch-rival Highland a game where their pitching gave up 18 base hits. Andrean beat Munster 7-3, but Andrean's beating everybody right now. The Mustangs have scored eight or more runs eight times in 15 games. Six errors in a 14-9 win over Kankakee Valley is cause for concern, and maybe the weather has had something to do with it, but the defense here is surprisingly mediocre.

OUTLOOK: Nervous. Sectional One (Munster, Lowell, Morton, EC, West Side, LC and Highland) doesn't look as tough as it did at the start of the year, but there's a lot of experienced teams here who aren't having peak years. Munster is as good as anyone there for a one-game playoff. They can't make as many errors as they have in the first half of the year, but those are 'April errors'.

8. (3A) Griffith (11-7)
23-10 (2007), 23-8 (2006), 19-15 (2005), 19-14 (2004), 17-12 (2003)

GRIFFITH: The 1-0 loss to 3A No. 2 Andrean had to open some eyes after the Panthers slipped by Kankakee Valley 9-8 with a three-run seventh inning. Okay, I can't explain the 5-1 loss to Lowell (7-10) and they have had some vivid pitching meltdowns when Tim Cooper (5-1, 1.36) isn't on the mound. What's up with Cooper? He had six hits, five RBIs and a homer in each game of a double-header sweep over North Judson. As long as the sun shines, this team is fine. But if the games back up, the Panthers have a problem because there isn't any obvious pitching depth.

OUTLOOK: A lot better than it was before they lost 1-0 to Andrean. The Panthers seem short of quality pitching, so that means they need to draw Andrean to begin the post-season. That way Cooper can face the 3A No. 2 59ers on full rest. Be careful what you ask for.

9. (3A) Clark (10-4)
20-10 (2007), 25-6 (2006), 22-7 (2005), 24-5 (2004), 21-8 (2003)

HAMMOND: The Pioneers beat Hammond 5-1 to end the month of April seven games over .500 as Trent Howard struck out 15 against the out manned Wildcats. The Pioneers took a good, solid whipping, 8-0 from Mt. Carmel of Chicago (17-4), but that's the best thing that could possibly happen to them. Sometimes NW Indiana teams that never leave Lake County get a false sense of security. Clark's losses are to Munster, Portage, Mt. Carmel and Hobart, all 4A teams or private school powers. Here's another team that's made a lot of what hopefully are 'April errors'.

OUTLOOK: Better than they might seem. The Pioneers need to defeat the other Hammond and Gary schools and they can do that in 3A sectional play. Only Morton (11-7) could stop them. Trent Howard can be dominant in a one-game scenario, and with the right draw, he could pitch the regional as well.

10. (4A) Morton (10-6)
21-7 (2007), 17-14 (2006), 16-16 (2005), 20-10 (2004), 8-16 (2003)

HAMMOND: The Governors bombed Calumet 8-0 Thursday (5-1-2008) as Justin Faught pitched a three-hit shutout. Morton also held off Gavit 10-9 in a Hammond city game. Losing 14-7 to Crown Point was probably a positive, because that's the level of competition they need to see now that they play in 4A Sectional One. There's been some tough losses and with no real league, the schedule has been somewhat erratic. But the core of the team is solid, and if everyone is healthy here, there's still time to win a lot of games.

OUTLOOK: There's a tough road here. Morton plays basically a 3A schedule and then enters the 4A playoffs. Morton should be on the phone trying to pick up some 4A foes in the final weeks, because they're going to have to beat Munster and Lake Central and they need to see a couple more teams of that caliber.

On the outside looking in...

(2A) HANOVER CENTRAL (8-4)
14-13 (2007), 13-15 (06), 15-11 (05), 18-10 (04), 17-11 (03) 9-19-1 (02)

CEDAR LAKE: Still waiting for the breakthrough here. HC lost 10-9 to Lake Central on a day when the Indians were playing their 5th game in 5 days and could have been beaten. The Wildcats played competitively, losing to Crown Point 5-0 and Boone Grove 7-5. Wins over sub-.500 teams like Wheeler 4-2 and Gavit 10-4 are nice, but the Wildcats had hoped for more this season. Junior first baseman Jordan Rizo was 3-for-4 against LC with 2 RBIs and he's been a big factor in the last two weeks. Hanover travels to Bishop Noll on May 3, Andrean on May 6, and Griffith on May 9 before the PCC Tournament at South Central where they will see Boone Grove (11-2). It's no accident that they're playing good teams on the road. That's what you need to get ready for the post-season. They don't clearly have better players than Morton and Clark and there is nothing in their performance this year that indicates that they are equal.

OUTLOOK: The window of opportunity is here. The other four teams in 2A Sectional 33 are .500 or below as of May 1. Hanover's record in May is irrelevant. They should play as many tough teams as they can because they will be the sectional favorite.

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2008 - Week-4, Top-10

High School Baseball Teams in

Northwest Indiana