Northwest Indiana Top-10 Week-9, 2007 High School 'Renegade' Poll 5-22-2007
	A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith

Chesterton, which probably has the best nine players, has lost to Lake Central, Portage and Munster.  But Munster has lost twice to Portage and once to Lowell.  Lowell has lost to Portage and Chesterton.  Lake Central has lost to Chesterton, Munster  and Lowell.  Portage has lost twice to LC and once to Portage.  Andrean (22-4-1) might be the best example.  The 59ers have lost to Lowell twice, but they've beaten Munster twice.  The Niners don't play Lake Central, Portage and Chesterton, which, to me, drops them behind that DAC power trio.

But here's the myth of athletics, especially softball and baseball, that if you beat someone in a seven inning game that you magically become better than the team you defeated.  It's simple logic which pollsters fall back on if they haven't seen the teams play.  What it says here is that, if Chesterton was the best team at the start of the season, and they've held their own in the schedule against all others and they have no injuries, they are still the best.

The recent losses by all the top teams might be looked at as casting a dark cloud over everybody's post-season prospects.  But, despite Whiting's 1A state title success last year, teams benefit on and off the field by playing other top quality teams, win or lose.  It's actually a positive to spend your final weeks facing as many good teams as you can find.  I believe that, even in a season where the spring weather was unusually bad,  Lowell got 31 games played in the nine week regular season.  Munster played 29 times.  Most teams played 24-28 games.  The 'what if' award goes to Chesterton, which lost match ups with 2A No. 1 Scecina (26-0) and 4A No. 2 Mishawaka (24-0) to the weather girl.

What you don't know at this time of the season is injuries.  Some pitchers have pushed themselves too hard early in the softball season (softball is truly a summer sport) and are playing hurt.  Some kids are sick due to the roller-coaster spring weather.  They'll probably play anyway.  Seniors have so much going on in their lives that some of them lose interest in the game.  Others use the game as a focus against all the other craziness going on late in their senior year, and they play better.  You never know until game time.

Don't get hung up on wining streaks or losing streaks.  Look for who is the home team.  There is a physical advantage to batting last.

1.  (4A) Chesterton (19-5)
30-2 (2006),  27-3-1 (2005),  20-7 (2004), 22-5 (2003), 21-4 (2002)

CHESTERTON -  I know it's in vogue to jack teams around in a poll because they lose a couple of games, but a poll is supposed to rank the best teams in order and it's hard to name a team you know is better than the Trojans.  It's even harder to show where the Trojans lost quality.  The Indians, after a 13-0 start, split their last 10 games, losing four one-run games and 6-3 to Lake Central (21-5), a team they defeated earlier.  Dawn McClellan (17-4) gives the Trojans a chance to get back to the title game.  She lost 3-2 to CP in 13 innings, 1-0 last week to Munster in eight innings and 3-2 to Portage in eight innings.  If you have read these polls for years, you know that for purposes of evaluation, overtime or extra inning games are ties.  The Trojans have lost three times in extra innings and that truthfully does not diminish from their ability or quality.  Chesterton is a very good offensive team and McClellan, who will be on the mound at all times, appears healthy.  The Trojans beat Hobart 3-2 in the Merrillville Sectional quarterfinals.  I would suggest that if Portage does not beat Chesterton at the Merrillville Sectional this week, the Trojans will repeat as champions.

2.  (4A) Lake Central (21-5)
25-8 (2006), 32-1 (2005), 29-3 (2004), 32-3-1 (2003), 28-1 (2002), 30-4 (2001)

St. JOHN -  If you could guarantee me LC would get out of the sectional, I like them to go deep into the state tournament.  The Indians do not have the offensive capability they've had in the past.  LC's Rachel Weaver (12-2) led the Indians into the playoff with a 2-0 no-hitter against Griffith (14-13).  Allison Aguilera has been a big hitter in the final weeks.  I like LC's top two pitchers, Weaver and Jessica Dobson (7-3), better than anybody else's top two.  In most softball games, you only need one pitcher.  But if a playoff games goes into extra innings LC is better off than anyone else, because they can go to a second dominant, hard-throwing pitcher.  LC got a bye, they split with Chesterton and swept Portage.  Only one DAC team can survive the regional, but LC has played the schedule and has the pitchers to be that team.

3.  (4A) Portage (20-7)
2006 (18-12), 2005 (20-9), 2004 (27-4-3), 2003 (19-9)

PORTAGE -  I like this team, but their season-ending surge means about as much in the post-season as our 'surge' in Iraq means, which is nothing.  The Indians stopped Chesterton (18-5), Hanover Central (19-9) and Munster (23-5) in the last 15 days.  Portage is scoring a few runs, which is very encouraging because lack of run-scoring has been their Achilles' heel for three years.  Meagan Gutierrez (18-5) pitched a four-hit shutout against Boone Grove and a three-hit shutout against Munster in the final week.  The Indians got a first round bye at the Merrillville Sectional and they are the most experienced team other than Chesterton.  They rely on one pitcher, but I'd take Gutierrez over anyone else right now.  I'd give Portage a 50-50 chance of beating Chesterton for the sectional title, but I still don't think they have the offense to go much further.

4.  (4A) Munster (23-4)
22-7 (2006), 25-3-1 (2005), 25-3-1 (2004), 22-7 (2003), 15-12 (2002), 23-10 (2001)

MUNSTER -  Munster turned back Chesterton 1-0 in a final week Top-10 showdown, but the Lady Ponies lost to Portage (20-7).  Munster lost twice to Lowell, but they were one run games and one was in overtime.  The Lady Ponies got to play in three tournaments, including their own and they also faced the top three in the DAC (Portage, LC and Chesterton).  The Mustang girls have a strong defense, but usually it's teams with high strikeout pitchers that advance deep into the state tourney.  The Lady Ponies' bats were quiet in the last week, but that means nothing.  Momentum is only as good as the next day's starting pitcher.  The offense and defense are fine, but this game isn't always about the offense and it might not necessarily be about the defense.  Softball is a pitching-driven game and I don't think Munster's pitching can get them through the regional.

5.  (3A) ANDREAN (22-5-1)
26-4 (2006), 32-3 (2005), 29-5 (2004), 27-2 (2003), 30-3 (2002), 26-7 (2001)

MERRILLVILLE - The Niners beat Bishop Dwenger 6-1 but lost for a second time to host (Mishawaka) Marian (22-3) at the Bishop's Cup tournament in Mishawaka.  So I believe they finished with 26 games played.  Andrean could see Marian a third time (Marian has won twice 1-0) in the Twin Lakes regional championship game, but that can't be a concern right now.  The Niners lost a few games to the weather and they also lost twice to Lowell, but Andrean beat Hobart 11-0 last week as freshman Alyssa Mosely (13-2) romped to a 13-strikeout, five-inning no-hitter over Wirt Monday in the Andrean 3A Sectional quarterfinals.  The Niner duo of Mosely and Nicole Derezinski has been strong all year.  In the Niners final five regular season games, they gave up no more than one run.

Andrean needs to play well defensively and move runners along, and that has not always been the case this season.  You have to like the 59er sectional prospects as there are no winning teams there to face them.  But they will be reminded how they lost to KV at the sectional last year.  Sometimes, coaches don't want teams to put pressure on themselves, but I think Andrean should do the opposite here.  The Niners have to look at the matchup against KV as the moment of truth.  On paper, Andrean should win.  Andrean is the only team that can beat Andrean at the sectional.  But they have to make it a mission and motivate themselves because when you're playing Wirt and Roosevelt, its easy to sluff off.

6.  (4A) LOWELL (25-6)
23-7 (2006), 21-10 (2005), 20-9 (2004), 13-16 (2003), 14-15 (2002),  21-9 (2001)

LOWELL -  I don't now how Lowell successfully played 31 games in a bad weather spring, but more power to them.  The Devils beat Munster, Morton, Griffith and Lake Central to end the season, but remember, your post-season opponents may not know how well you think you are playing and they may not care.  The Red Devils have very experienced pitching in juniors Alyssa Reed (12-2) and Kaitlyn Bolanowski (12-4) and the top of the Lowell batting order is as good or better than anyone in this area.  But the reason they are sixth in this poll and questionable for the post-season is that everyone is not healthy here.  Reed (12-2, 1.42 ERA), Kelly Johnson (.402, 13 stolen bases) catcher Katherine Allert (.317, 19 RBIs), have all missed time in recent weeks.  I love their draw where they will not see BOTH LC and Munster.  If the Devils do not overlook semifinal foe Highland, they should be in the finals.  I like them to beat Munster, but not LC.  But again, I really don't know who's healthy here.

7.  (2A) Wheeler (23-3)
2006 (14-16), 2005 (10-18), 2004 (7-21), 2003 (7-18), 2002 (11-14)

UNION TOWNSHIP  - Wheeler has lost only three times this season and a 10-run win over Hobart in the final two weeks balances a 4-3 loss to Griffith in extra innings.  There is doubt here.  The Bearcat girls got the short straw.  They must beat Bishop Noll, Boone Grove and Hanover Central and, for a team with freshmen in key roles, that might be too much to ask.  Freshman right-hander Lanay Parks (19-2) has been an impact newcomer, no doubt.  The Bearcat pitcher has 15 shutouts.  One of her losses was her high school debut and the other was in extra innings on unearned runs.  You can write both of them off.  She's virtually unbeaten.  But when your pitcher averages 10 strikeouts per seven innings, your defense is untested.  In the state tournament, above Class 1A, you just can't strike everybody out.  The defense must make some plays.  I don't know they can't, but we'll have to see it in playoff games.  Nobody knows how Wheeler is going to do.  They beat Bishop Noll 3-2 Monday in the Class 2A Wheeler sectional opener and Noll is 9-19.  They could be out at the sectional or they could reach the state title game.

8.  (2A) HANOVER CENTRAL (19-9)
16-14 (2006), 26-5-3 (2005), 25-7 (2004), 25-6 (2003)

CEDAR LAKE - The Lady Cats had a very strong season against a schedule that included 10 teams that finished the year ranked in the top-10.  The Lady Cats have lost to Munster (23-5), Lowell (25-6), Beecher Ill. (28-4), McCutcheon (25-6), Chesterton (19-5), Eastern (22-4), Portage (20-7) and Wheeler (22-3).  The big doubt here surrounds a team made up largely of freshman and sophomores, but the heavy schedule makes them less suspect than Wheeler.  Injured shortstop Kara Gilbert played the final two games of the regular season.  The Lady Cats showed defensive problems in a 4-3 loss to Whiting (23-3), but they bounced back to defeat 4A Crown Point (16-13) 3-1.  Hanover got a great draw, only having to beat Lake Station to reach the sectional finals, probably against Wheeler (23-3).  The rematch against Lanay Parks (19-2) is clearly the moment of truth and, since Wheeler will probably walk HC power hitter Jessica Toth, which one of their other plays can get the big hit?  With the schedule they've played (they've already beaten probable 2A regional championship game foe Winamac (19-7), HC is a win over Wheeler away from the state finals.  But there are too many freshmen and sophomores on both sides to know what will happen in that sectional title game on (May 24) Thursday.

9.  (3A) Griffith  (14-14)
12-19 (2006), 19-15 (2005), 16-15 (2004), 18-14 (2003)

GRIFFITH - The Panthers, like Hanover, play everybody, and losses to Lake Central (21-5) and Lowell (25-6) in the final week are just good experience as was a 4-3 eight-inning win over Wheeler (22-3).  Brittany Bridges (8-8) pitched all the games in the final week, indicating there may be an injury here or simply a decision to put the best pitcher on the mound every time.  I suspect the Panther coaches don't like this, but Griffith is about .500 before turning it on in the sectionals.  Some of that is unavoidable.  The Panthers' schedule is tougher than their sectional.  Griffith doesn't play most of their sectional foes during the season.  It's worked for them before and it should work for them again this week.  To play Lake Central in the final week of the season means you don't care about your regular season record anywhere near as much as you want to win the sectional.  Griffith should play Andrean on June 2 in the Twin Lakes Regional semifinals and, since they were only .500 during the first 28 games, the season will be almost a total loss if they don't make it there.

10.  (4A) CROWN POINT (16-13)
2006 (13-14)  2005  (12-14), 2004 (8-19)  2003 (16-16), 2002 (11-16)

CROWN POINT  -  The Bulldogs lost the final five games of the season, including losses 2-1 to South Bend Riley (21-5), 4-3 to Highland (15-11) and 3-1 to Hanover Central (19-9).  I think they played well in some of the games, but the CP offense, a question mark two months ago, scored only seven runs in a 0-4 final week.  CP beat Merrillville 8-0 Monday to break the losing streak with Jackie Beilfuss (4-6) pitching a two-hit shutout.  Again, pay no attention to streaks in the final weeks of the season.  You'll only get fooled.  There is concern here because this is a young team that did not get a bye and must win three sectional games, two against foes that beat them during the season.  There is also concern because the Bulldogs must face Dawn McClellan (18-4), one of the state's best who was 6-1 in playoff games last year.  The Lady Bulldogs should have beaten Merrillville, but I can't see them beating BOTH Portage and Chesterton.

On the outside looking in...

(1A) Whiting (22-3)
33-0 (2006), 11-16 (2005), 28-6 (2004), 21-10 (2003)

WHITING -  Whiting got a 4-3 comeback win at Hanover Central when Hanover committed two errors and lost a fly ball in the sun in the final inning.  The Oilers seemed excited about a sectional quarterfinal meeting with Morgan Township and they should be okay.  Second baseman Kelly Jansky, injured and unavailable in the final week, is questionable for the playoffs.  The schedule Whiting plays is so soft that it's understandable that the girls were a little sloppy defensively in the final week.  If 300-strikeout pitcher Mel Dumezich (22-3) is healthly, Whiting is the sectional favorite.  Class 1A softball just isn't very good.  Dumezich can win the game all by herself with a no-hitter and a home run.  Morgan will just be attempting to put the ball in play and let Whiting throw the game away with errors.  Whiting isn't going to score many runs as better teams pitch around Dumezich.  The defense is shaky, but those two factors also were true last year.  No one in NW Indiana really knows how good Whiting is because they don't play most of the other good teams in NW Indiana.  That's not debatable.  But, again, that was true last year and they won it all.  Morgan Township (16-4) is a major hurdle because that is a very experienced team.  If the Oiler girls beat Morgan, Whiting is the odds-on favorite to return to the 1A finals.  Whiting did not play a 'state finals' schedule.  Let's see if it matters.
 

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