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2007-2008 Girls BasketballWeek-10 PollA USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith(02-01-2008) |
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2007-2008 Girls BasketballWeek-10 PollA USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith(02-01-2008) |
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MICHIGAN
CITY, IN - (02-01-2008) -
The draw has some big
winners and big losers in the 33rd annual
IHSAA state girls basketball tourney. The
big loser is the big team.
Washington (19-2), ranked in the Top-25 in
the nation, has to face crosstown rival Clay (16-6) and superpower Penn (18-2) just
to reach the sectional finals.
If Washington wins the sectional, they could
face Merrillville (15-4) or Michigan City
(17-5) in the regional semifinals and Gary
West Side (15-4) in the finals. Washington
does host 4A Sectional 3 but they could not
have gotten a worse draw.
South Bend St. Joseph's (11-8) and Plymouth (14-4) drew each other, much to everyone else's delight in 3A Sectional 19 at New Prairie. Northwestern (19-0) and Twin Lakes (18-1) are in opposite ends of the bracket at the 3A Twin Lakes Sectional 20.
2A powers Westview (15-3) and Jimtown (17-1)
are in opposite ends of the five-team Class
2A LaVille Sectional.
1A No. 3 Kouts (18-1), the PCC champion,
found out that they could not see undefeated
top ranked Oregon-Davis (20-0) until the
Caston Regional championship game.
1. (4A) Michigan City (16-5)
2007 (22-2) 2006 (14-11), 2005 (6-15), 2004
(6-16)
MICHIGAN CITY: Michigan City took a second loss to DAC rival Merrillville last Friday, a game MC led by 10 in the fourth quarter. Yes, I still think they are the better team and they'll get a chance to show it in the 4A Chesterton Sectional semifinals on Feb. 8. I just can't rate Merrillville over Michigan City when the Wolves have played teams like Clay (17-5) and Washington (20-2). With that said, MC folded under Merrillville's pressure in last week's game. The Wolves have not done well against up-tempo teams, which is surprising because they are an up tempo running squad themselves. MC drew Hobart (10-9), the weakest team in the Class 4A Chesterton Sectional. That was the highlight of the week for MC, which can't consider this a great season after two losses to the Pirates. An MC-Merrillville rematch would occur on Friday, Feb. 8.
2. (4A) MERRILLVILLE (16-4)
2007 (16-6), 2006 (19-3), 2005 (12-10), 2004
(12-8)
MERRILLVILLE: Merrillville came up strong in the fourth quarter to rally from 10 down to beat Michigan City last week. I cannot explain how Merrillville has defeated Michigan City twice, but has lost to Portage twice. Oddly, while MC has lost only to speedy, up-tempo teams, Merrillville has lost only to teams that slow them. Merrillville and Michigan City are obviously the two top teams in NW Indiana and they obviously are very close in caliber. For me, Merrillville's got to beat Michigan City a third time to jump over them in this poll. There is that much difference in the non conference schedules. Merrillville drew Portage (13-6) in the 4A Sectional 2 quarterfinals next week and I think that, with Portage's injury situations, even though Portage has defeated the Pirates twice, that's exactly the team Merrillville wants and needs to draw.
3. (4A) Chesterton (10-9)
2007 (7-14), 2006 (16-8), 2005 (11-11), 2004
(14-8)
CHESTERTON: It can't surprise many who watch closely that Chesterton beat Highland 54-51 Tuesday night (1-29-2008) considering the level of schedule that the two teams play. Highland had won 10 games in a row, but Chesterton is probably the best 1/2 court defensive team in NW Indiana, and frankly, the middle of the DAC should be competitive with the champs of any other conference in NW Indiana. Chesterton has been ahead of Highland all year in this poll. No one in Sectional 2 matches up well with 6-foot Abbe Skube (11.2 ppg.) and 5-foot-11 Morgan Palombizio (10.4 ppg.). Skube's 19 in a 51-35 win over LC (Jan. 25) was a career-high. Palombizio scored a career-best 17 in a 63-56 loss to Merrillville on Jan. 22. The Trojans were stuck with the 'Sectional 2 curse' this year. The 'curse' is where, because the DAC is the only league in the state crazy enough to schedule league games on the final day of the regular season, and because the DAC basically is the Sectional 2 field. You can play a league foe on Saturday and draw that same team three days later for a quarterfinal game. Chesterton plays at Valpo on Friday, Feb. 1 and they host Valpo on 'Super Tuesday', Feb. 5. Everyone hates that. No one wants it. But for some reason, coaches and athletic directors don't say anything when it comes time to change that. You cannot play league games in the final night of the regular season. You shouldn't play ANY games on the final night of the regular season.
4. (4A) Gary West Side (15-4)
2007 (16-6), 2006 (16-7), 2005 (23-5), 2004
(22-3)
GARY: West Side has won three in a row, but those three victims are Gavit, Morton and Lew Wallace, not the Celtics, Pistons and Lakers. You'd be hard-pressed to find a quality win on the Side slate all year. Maybe Jefferson (12-9) or 3A Hammond (17-2), but Hammond is very suspect. West Side outscored Wallace 20-0 in the first quarter of a 45-28 win Tuesday night, but Wallace is 3-13. I continue to see no indication that the Side can win a big game over a quality team and since they have not faced sectional rival Highland, there has to be a lot of doubt about how they'll fare in next week's Munster Sectional. This sectional has been at East Chicago or Gary West Side for years and EC was almost a home court for the Side. Highland, on the other hand, has to feel at home at rival Munster. The move changes the dynamic of the entire sectional. West Side needs a win over South Bend St. Joe's (11-8) to end the year with a winning streak, but that game was postponed by the weather.
5. (4A) Valparaiso (10-9)
2007 (8-14), 2006 (13-8), 2005 (21-2), 2004
(23-3)
VALPARAISO: The Vikings got surprised 53-38 at Crown Point and now they get double-dipped by Chesterton, meeting the Trojans (10-9) in the season finale and then again in the playoff opener. Valpo is the team that everyone feels they can beat, but nobody wants to play because of their size up front. Sophomore center Stefanie Lang (10.7 ppg.) is NW Indiana's tallest starting center and 5-foot-10 guard Christine Brichta (9.3 ppg.) and 6-foot-1 senior Becca Hoefler (9.4 ppg) create matchup problems. If balanced scoring matters, guard Tara Villarael (8.7) gives the Vikings four players who score eight or more. Soph Kelsie Ostojic scored a career-high 14 last week against Lake Central. This team has split the season series (2 games) with five different DAC schools. I don't now how they win three in a row in the post-season, but you can't say they have no chance to win one or two.
6. (4A) Highland (17-3)
2007 (20-6) 2006 (12-11), 2005 (19-5), 2004
(17-6)
HIGHLAND: The Trojans lost to Chesterton 54-51 to complete the regular season, but they drew a Lowell team that has very little chance to beat them in the playoff opener. I don't know if Chesterton is a good playoff prep for Gary West Side, the team the Trojans must beat on sectional week, but Chesterton and Lowell are similar. Highland led 15-9 and 42-36 before losing. The Trojans are the equal of Chesterton, but again, Chesterton is, at best, the third best DAC team. Highland has lost 5-foot-10 senior Brooke Jones for the season with a torn ACL, but guard Liz Stapke (12.7 ppg,.), wing shooter Ashley Strassburger and 5-10 forward Jordan Bedella, all seniors, are their key players. They have no excuses. What has to concern you about Highland is that they are entering the 4A playoffs after facing just nine 4A foes, including Lowell, Morton, Hobart and Munster, who are glorified 3A teams by enrollment. There is no one win in the last three months that convinces you this team can beat Gary West Side.
7. (4A) Portage (13-6)
2007 (16-9), 2006 (4-17), 2005 (4-17), 2004
(10-12)
PORTAGE: Portage blasted Munster 73-44 behind 18 points from guard Lisa Samplawski (16.9 ppg.) who, while she has had some injury problems, appeared ready to go for the post-season. They'll need her as they drew Merrillville (16-4) in the 4A Chesterton sectional quarterfinals. Portage is still without injured starters Gloria Hernandez (12.9 ppg.), Cayla Criswell and guard Brittany Buzea. Buzea is definitely out with a torn ACL. Criswell has MCL problems. Did anybody notice that Portage is 7-6 in the DAC and 6-0 in non-conference play? Again, I have no inside information but I still believe that Hernandez, who has undergone hand surgery, WILL play part-time (at least) against Merrillville. If she does, that gives Portage a chance. But the potential schedule has them playing three times in four days at the sectional and the first two are against Merrillville (15-4) and Michigan City (16-5). The odds are against Portage. They beat up on people last year and weren't shy about it. Nobody's going to feel sorry for them.
8. (3A) Griffith (16-4)
2007 (15-7), 2006 (14-8), 2005 (15-8), 2004
(13-9)
GRIFFITH: The Panthers have lost to Highland, Hammond, Munster and Morton but three of those teams are 4A and Griffith is in the 3A playoffs. I don't put much stock in late-season games against teams you aren't going to see again, but Griffith is offensively challenged averaging just 45 points a game. The Panthers have not allowed 50 points in any game all season and they're still 15-4. Griffith is like Barrack Obama. Everybody knows they're too young to get the job done, but they sure look good at times. Griffith got a massive break when they received a first-round bye in the 3A Rensselaer Sectional. The only people who don't think it's a factor to drive from Ridge Road to Jasper County are people who don't have to do it. Griffith and Andrean will be home watching 'American Idol' Tuesday night while Calumet is 55 miles down the road in Rensselaer. Due to that first round bye alone, the Panthers are the sectional favorite. But they only beat Andrean 39-37 and the rematch is the Friday (Feb. 8) semifinal.
9. (1A) Oregon-Davis (21-0)
2007 (25-3), 2006 (14-8), 2005 (11-11), 2004
(7-14)
HAMLET: 1A No. 1 Oregon-Davis held off Mishawaka Marian 66-55 to complete the schools' first-ever undefeated regular season. Oregon-Davis has won 40 games in a row and they will end the regular season as the state's No. 1-ranked team. O-D hosts the sectional and they drew Argos (13-6), a team they beat twice in January by a combined margin of 90 points. I think the schedule has dumbed them down here competitively, but they ended the season Tuesday (Jan. 29) so they did get an entire week to get ready for three home games. O-D, which got a quarterfinal bye at the 1A Elkhart Sectional, they may not say it out loud, but their eyes are on Fort Wayne Canterbury (15-5), which finished the season with an eight-game winning streak. 1A No. 10 Canterbury is 4-4 against 3A and 4A schools and they would meet O-D in the regional semifinals.
10. (3A) Hammond (17-2)
2007 (17-9), 2006 (15-8), 2005 (15-7), 2004
(8-12)
HAMMOND: The Wildcats ended the season on Jan. 25 with a 30-point win over Bishop Noll. This is a two-time defending sectional champion, but they now have to take a look at that. Twice they have won the sectional and twice they have been bounced out of the tourney at the regional semifinals. That IS a successful season, but it probably gets old. The Wildcats host the sectional and they got a first round bye, which means they did not play between Jan. 25 and Feb. 8. The semifinal foe is Gary Roosevelt, a vastly overrated team, albeit one that beat Hammond at the regional last year. The only team that can beat Hammond at the sectional level is the one they see in the mirror. They needed a game this last week. Can they beat St. Joe (11-8) or Plymouth (14-4) at in the regional semifinal at Twin Lakes? Yes. Will they? History says: No.
HEY, WHAT ABOUT US??????
(1A) Kouts (18-1)
2007 (20-3), 2006 (12-9), 2005 (12-9), 2004
(13-9)
KOUTS: 1 A No. 2 Kouts beat Hanover
Central 57-51 last Saturday (Jan. 27) as
senior Juliet Keller (16.3 ppg,.) scored 29. The Fillies completed all their Porter
County Conference games and tournaments with
a 12-0 record.
Kouts has a Feb. 1 game at Hobart (9-8),
which is
something the Fillies need because there is
a hint the PCC wasn't that strong this year.
5-foot-10 center Hannah McNeil (9.8 ppg.)
and lead guard Ann Mare Keller (10.6 ppg.)
gives Kouts good floor balance.
The Fillies host the sectional and they got
a first round bye. Kouts needs two wins and
it looks like Whiting (10-10) and Washington
Township (8-10) will be the foes. You cannot
rate Kouts in the Top 10 because they do not
play ANY 3A or 4A schools until the season's
final game but Kouts can enter the playoffs
with a 20-1 record.
(3A) Calumet (17-3)
2007 (13-8), 2006 (5-16), 2005 (7-15), 2004
(16-10)
GARY: Calumet carried an 11-game winning streak into the final game of the regular season against Griffith. The bad news is: Calumet drew a quarterfinal game in the Rensselaer Sectional so they'll be packing up their friends and relatives and heading down the trail to Jasper County after school Tuesday night. Any time you have to drive an hour after school to play you can lose. I want to officially protest Calumet being shipped to Rensselaer for a sectional quarterfinal game when Hammond is hosting a sectional. Of course, my official protest and five touchdowns still won't beat the New England Patriots on Sunday.
Out of town...
3A No. 2 Twin Lakes (19-1)
19-6 (2007), 9-13 (2006), 20-3 (2005) 17-6
(2004)
MONTICELLO: One of the state's premier teams, led by all-state and 2007 junior all-star guard Betsy Adams (22.6 ppg., 3.4 assists). They will open the playoffs against rival West Lafayette (10-10) in a 'Super Tuesday' (Feb. 5) quarterfinal. 5-foot-10 Emileah Manahan averages 8.8 rebounds per game and 5-foot-6 guard Laura Ward averages 3.6 assists a game. But it's all about Betsy. Adams, a Valparaiso University recruit, shoots 52% for the floor, which is very high for a 5-foot-7 shooting guard. She hits 46.5% of her 3-point shots and 85.5% of her foul shots. This is a one-girl show. Adams gets the ball and she gets her shots and this team has accepted that fact. Coaches won't admit it, but balanced scoring is for losers, especially at the small school level. Twin Lakes hosts the sectional but they no longer host the regional. That's at Rensselaer now. And the Indians may not get to the regional because No. 4 Northwestern (19-0) is in the Twin Lakes Sectional. Somebody at Twin Lakes was paying attention to the changes. TL ends the season on the road at Rensselaer Thursday night (1-31-2008). But if they beat Northwestern, the Indians could reach the state finals. They have the best offensive player in the northern half of the 3A bracket.