2007-2008 Girls Basketball  Week-5 Poll A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith (12-25-2007)

MICHIGAN CITY, IN - (12-25-2007) - Has there ever been a year when the South Bend area was as strong in girls basketball as it is this year?  Uh, no.  Start with two state champions in Washington (12-0) and Oregon-Davis (12-0) and then add Penn (12-1), Clay (9-2), Elkhart Memorial (8-2) and 3A teams like Wawasee (8-1), Plymouth (10-2) and Northwood (8-4).  I couldn't even tell you how Jimtown (9-1) and Westview (10-2) are getting it done.  The only reason Oregon-Davis and Washington are not going to lose is that they don't play each other.

But the Washington-Penn game on Jan. 9 is very telling.  It will be the first time the Panthers are challenged by an inside-outside duo of high quality and in Penn guard Kelsey Reynolds, Washington will find a player they cannot steal the ball from at will.  That matchup comes five days after Michigan City (9-2) takes their shot at Washington and Bishop Luers (8-4) gets a chance against Penn.

What will Northwest Indiana do against the Michiana (South Bend-Elkhart) area in the post-season?  Very little.  It's a good thing NW Indiana is guaranteed two regional qualifiers in 3A and 4A because they'd lose to their friends to the east this year.  Barring an apocalyptic series of upsets, the state finals will go on without a representative from Northwest Indiana.  No shame.  If it's only a phase.

But I have said for three years there is a lack of skilled girls basketball players in NW Indiana.  I do no know why.  The last good lead guard out of Northwest Indiana was probably Cassie Pruzin, who led DePauw to the Div. III national title last year.  Division I is not everything, but where are the good D-1 lead guards from NW Indiana?  The last D-1 lead guard from NW Indiana was Hebron's Lauren Bechtold (at VU), seven years ago.  Right now, among 30-40 schools, there might be five real lead guards.  Entire teams can't handle the ball and are slaughtered because of it.  Coaches brag about defense, but they know they are horsewhipping crippled or one-handed offenses.

Good big players from NW Indiana are riding the bench at D-1 schools.  All of them.  The best they do is become starters at mid-Major schools.  There's no shame in that, but where are the superior players from NW Indiana?

Michiana has had a girl start at Tennessee (Shanna Zolman) and an all-conference league MVP at Notre Dame (Jacqueline Batteast).  There has not been a great player out of Northwest Indiana in more than a decade.  Good ones?  Yes.  Great prep players?  Yes.  But great players... by real standards?  Not hometown cheerleading?  No.  Not even close.  Not by real standards.  You can go back 15-20 years and not find anybody.  Where is our Peyton Manning in a world of Vince Youngs and Tony Romos?

Maybe the DAC defensive meat-grinder is driving great athletes to other sports.  Does gymnastics and swimming take DAC girl athletes?  Most of the state does not have gymnastics.  Are the Hammond and Gary schools crippled because they don't have the athletic department leadership of the DAC schools?  Do the Lake County schools get so sugared up by the wonderful press coverage they get that they don't travel, don't find the toughest foes?  Maybe they don't realize they can't play like the rest of the state.

Tough questions.  But as you are reading this, there are no state ranked teams in the six-county area (Lake, Porter, LaPorte, Jasper, Newton, Starke) county except for 1A No. 7 Kouts.  That speaks for itself.  It's time for the mid-season grades and it won't be pretty.  We need a hero to step up in the second half or the NW Indiana girls post-season is going into the ashcan faster than that Jamie Lynn Spears kids show.  Let's check out the Top-10 and whatever future they may have.

1.  (4A) Michigan City (9-2)
2007 (22-2), 2006 (14-11), 2005 (6-15), 2004 (6-16)

MICHIGAN CITY:  Michigan City blew out Crown Point, LaPorte and Lake Central, all by 19 points or more.  They are the undisputed No. 1 right now in NW Indiana.  But they have to know the moment of truth is at hand.  MC will play at the South Bend Holiday Tournament where they will win three times and then face powerful Clay on Dec. 29.  Then, MC travels to South Bend to face the nation's No. 1  team, South Bend Washington.  The Wolves' big people have to develop and junior Essence Robinson has been a big factor at big forward.

Can they win the sectional?  Yes.  They are the best team.

Can they win the regional?  Only if they draw the Sectional one winner in the semifinals.  They would have major problems beating Memorial and Penn or Washington in the same day.

Can they get to the state finals?  They have about a 5% chance.

2.  (4A) MERRILLVILLE (9-3)
2007 (16-6), 2006 (19-3), 2005 (12-10), 2004 (12-8)

MERRILLVILLE:  Losses to Lake Central and Valparaiso put the Pirates in a hole in the DAC, but it's a long season.  They can come back.  The struggle they're having with Valparaiso (a 56-53 win and a 54-51 loss) is telling because size is the Pirates' weakness and Valparaiso is a sectional rival.  I wish they were playing a holiday tournament like MC is, but the DAC discourages that.  The 72-29 rout of Munster may say more about Munster than it does about Merrillville.  The Pirates have to be mentally tough here because the mind-numbing 14-game DAC slate will have them treading water until the Jan. 25 rematch with Michigan City.  Let's not get carried away.  All three Merrillville losses are by 10 points or less.  But they do not have outside shooting to confront bigger teams.  The rematch with Portage is Jan. 5.

Can they win the sectional?  Yes.  On a good week, they can beat Portage and Michigan City and they know it.

Can they win the regional?  Only if somebody beats Penn and somebody beats Washington.

Can they reach the state finals?  No.  Too small.  Too few shooters.  Too tough a path.  They'd need to win six over good foes.

3.  (4A) Portage (9-2)
2007 (16-9), 2006 (4-17), 2005 (4-17), 2004 (10-12)

PORTAGE:  Portage stomped sub.-500 Crown Point and they will wallop 1A power Attica on New Year's Day.  Here's a team that benefits from playing the other DAC contenders Merrillville and Michigan City again and again because they can find ways to slow them.  Portage has now beaten CP five times in a row, but 30-point wins over teams they know they can beat don't help them.  Portage has Washington Township on the schedule and that's unfortunate.  The Indians play Lake Central on Dec. 28 and that will only be a problem if they make it one.

Can they win the sectional?  Yes.  They are 0-10 against Michigan City in the last four years, but the more times they play Michigan City, the closer they'll come.

Can they win the regional?  Penn would have to beat Washington and then West Side or Memorial would have to beat Penn.  South Bend Washington is 'kryptonite' to Portage.  They can't control the pace.

Can they reach the state finals?  They have no true point guard, something they are good enough to get away with in DAC play.  For the Top-10, they're small.  But they are senior-dominated and they have physical, skilled players.  With the right series of foes, they have maybe a 5% chance which is 5% more than I give Merrillville.

4.  (4A) Gary West Side (9-0)
2007 (16-6), 2006 (16-7), 2005 (23-5), 2004 (22-3)

GARY:  The Side beat Crete-Monee 43-30, which is very exciting.  Seriously, this team has yet to get into any type of sequence of playing good foes.  The 'Side' is, as always, tough defensively, but they are not a good offensive team and that's not 'Breaking News'.  The Cougars have beaten only three teams with winning records and they've won four by 10 points or less.  I'm not saying they aren't good.  I'm just saying they haven't proven it.  West Side needs to win the Gary Holiday Tournament.  They need to make an example of Gary Roosevelt (8-2), which has fattened up on weak sisters.  And they need to beat the 'true riders of the west side", west side Chicago powerhouse Marshall, the 20-time Chicago city champion.  Why is Marshall in the Gary Holiday Tournament?  Why are primary elections for the November general election in January?

Can they win 4A Sectional one?  There are the favorite.

Can they win the regional championship?  Unlikely.  The Cougars' full court pressing, 'wave of players' style won't beat Michigan City, Merrillville, Clay or (SB) Washington and the Cougars can't change their style.

Can they reach the state finals?  They don't have the skill level of the people they would have to beat.

6.  (4A) Chesterton (5-5)
2007 (7-14), 2006 (16-8), 2005 (11-11), 2004 (14-8)

CHESTERTON:  The poster child for the DAC.  They are heavyweight team that gets knocked down and gets back up swinging.  The 30-25 loss to LaPorte was something I would not want to have witnessed.  But you have to say what you see.  The Trojans' losses have been to Penn (12-1), MC (8-2), Portage (9-2), LaPorte (7-6) and Merrillville (8-3).  They just finished a five-game road trip where they went 1-4 against all winning teams.  The record they have is exactly what they should have at this point and so is their spot in this poll.  They average about 44 points and they allow about 42.  You get what you pay for here.  Chesterton drew St. Joseph's (6-6) in the Huntington North Holiday Tournament on Dec. 29 and St. Joe has won six in a row.

Can they win the sectional?  Yes. The half-court style they play would work three times in five days and the Trojans won't play anyone they haven't already seen.

Can they win the regional?  No.  There's just too much size and speed coming in at the regional level.  Even if favorites got beat, Chesterton would have to win twice in one day and I can't see it.

7.  (4A) Highland (10-2)
2007 (20-6), 2006 (12-11), 2005 (19-5), 2004 (17-6)

HIGHLAND:  The Trojans are playing bad teams and it will hurt them.  West Side will face Marshall and Roosevelt over the holidays, while the Trojans play Hobart (5-5) and Bishop Noll (5-6).  Highland has to build themselves up by impressive wins and solid play because there are no more strong 4A teams on their schedule.  They are not cutting each other up and bleeding like the DAC teams and they aren't getting outside Northwest Indiana to play like sectional rival Gary West Side.  Highland plays largely a 3A schedule and they play in the 4A playoffs.  That's a blueprint for failure.  The game at Griffith (10-2) on Jan. 12 won't be for the league title unless they beat Munster (6-6) on Jan. 17.  I like them, but they need to go 18-2 and scare everybody with their record.

Can they win the Sectional?  Definitely.  I wish they'd have played Gary West Side during the season, but only West Side can stop Highland from repeating as sectional champs.

Can they win the regional?  No.  Not unless several basketball players in St. Joseph's and Elkhart Counties take up swimming as a New Year's resolution.  At last year's 4A regional, Highland lost to Portage by 27 and Portage lost to South Bend Washington by 30 on the same day.  That's what Highland is up against.

8.  (1A) Oregon-Davis (12-0)
2007 (25-3), 2006 (14-8), 2005 (11-11), 2004 (7-14)

HAMLET:  The best team in Northwest Indiana that is not 4A?  I think that's an overstatement, but O-D is 5-0 against 3A schools.  I want to see the Bobcats take on 4A South Bend Riley (1-10) on Jan. 26, because Riley has real speed.  But if they can beat a decent 3A John Glenn (6-4) team twice in the next 10 days, I think O-D is going 21-0.  I wish I knew exactly how good lead guard Gabrielle Minix is.  I'm saying it again.  This is the team everybody wants to see, but somebody in Lake or Porter County has to make the call.  They've won eight in a row by 14 points or more.

Can they win the sectional?  Okay, I admit.  Dumb question.

Can they win the regional:  Kouts (11-1) is here, but they'd be overmatched.  Actually, Canterbury (6-4), which has lost to 3A powers Bishop Chatard (9-1) and (FW) Elmhurst (9-1) and 4A superpower Fort Wayne South (10-1), has a shot at this point.  This is the hurdle for O-D.

Can they reach the state finals?  It's 50-50 at least that they do.  O-D beat Wood Memorial 54-46 in last year's title game.  Wood Memorial (12-2) is slower, but bigger and they are 6-2 against 3A schools.  Most 1A teams play really bad schedules and that puts them behind O-D.

9.  (3A) Hammond (9-1)
2007 (17-9), 2006 (15-8), 2005 (15-7), 2004 (8-12)

HAMMOND:  The Wildcats have only a seven-point loss to undefeated Gary West Side, but you'd have to be blind to rank them highly off the first half of the year.  They are 4-0 against the Hammond schools (they play Morton, Gavit and Clark twice each) and East Chicago and 2-1 against Gary foes.  A 3-point home court win over Highland could have gone either way.
The schedule is weak and the Cats do not have any consistent shooters.  As long as they can overwhelm foes with athletic ability, they're fine.  They have to maintain a high pace and be relentless about it like Gary West Side is.  Hammond is in the same position as Highland is.  They are the masters of their domain.  But their domain is small.

Can they win the sectional?  They are the favorite.  Hammond is 5-0 against sectional foes.

Can they win the regional?  Slim chance.  They could win sectional 17 and they would be slightly favored over the sectional 18 champ if they can draw them.  The problem is sectional 19 where Plymouth and St. Joseph's are favored and sectional 20 where Twin Lakes (10-0), led by 5-6 all-state guard Betsy Adams (21 ppg). and Northwestern (10-0) are unbeaten.

Can they reach the state finals?  No.  Top-ranked Wawasee figures to be waiting at the semistate and they are a level above Hammond.

GRIFFITH:  The Panthers have lost only to Morton (8-5) and Munster (6-6).  They will help Hanover inaugurate the first Hanover Holiday Winter Classic this week when they play Beecher, Illinois Friday afternoon.  The Panthers will be favored over Hanover (6-4) in the 3:00 p.m. Saturday (Dec. 29) championship game, but it's a road game they can't overlook.
Highland (10-2) and Hammond (9-1) remain on the schedule and neither are sectional rivals.  Griffith barely nipped Andrean 39-37 and they'll meet again at sectional time.  The Panthers have also defeated new 3A sectional rival Rensselaer (7-4) by 13.  Griffith has allowed just 29 points a game but a lot of that is their offense.

Can they win the sectional?  Yes.  They are the favorite, although their style of play keeps almost every game close..

Can they win the regional?  They have a better chance than Hammond because they can slow the pace of the game.  But 42 points a game won't win a lot of playoff games.

Can they reach the state finals?  No.  There's not enough ball-handling or offense here.

(4A) LaPorte (7-6)
2007 (11-11), 2006 (8-13), 2005 (8-14), 2004 (4-17)

LaPORTE:  The Slicers have lost to Michigan City (8-2), Merrillville (8-3), Portage (9-2), Chesterton (5-5), and South Bend powers Clay (9-2) and Washington (12-0).  Wins over Valparaiso (8-5) and Chesterton (5-5) establishes some credibility and the way they have competed is encouraging.  Even with five road games left, a 10-10 record is a possibility and an achievement.  Especially against the 41st toughest schedule in the state.  No one in the DAC plays a tougher schedule.

Can they win the sectional?  Maybe.  It isn't impossible.  It's an eight-team single-elimination playoff and what if Merrillville, Portage and Michigan City are in the opposite bracket?

Can they win the regional?  They have allowed more points in 13 games than they have scored.  Washington is 6th in the nation.  Penn has two D-1 players.  Michigan City may have two junior all-stars.  LaPorte would be fired faster than Scott Skiles on Christmas Eve.