2007-2008 Girls Basketball  Week-9 Poll A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith (01-26-2008)

MICHIGAN CITY, IN - (01-26-2008) - While Calumet (13-3) and Kouts were winners in lively small school tournaments in Northwest Indiana, there was a shakeup at the top of the state polls.  Washington (17-2), the defending Indiana 4A state champ lost to Illinois Class AA No. 1 Buffalo Grove (22-1) 74-58 last week and Indiana state pollsters mistakenly dropped them out of the 4A No. 1 slot they've occupied all season.

The Bison ('Bison' is the politically correct phrase for multiple buffaloes) are ranked No. 14 in the nation and they got 27 points and 12 rebounds from guard Ellen Ayoub, who went head-to-head with Washington all-stater Skyler Diggins (31 points).  Diggins (28.2 points, 7.1 rebounds) is Indiana's leading scorer.  The reason the Indiana pollsters made a mistake in moving Ben Davis (19-1) ahead of Washington is that Washington's two losses are to teams rated in the Top-25 nation wide.  Washington lost earlier to Kentucky big school No. 1 Lexington Catholic 73-60 on Jan. 13.

Its another example of what I call the 'blind pollster syndrome' where you rank teams solely due to wins and losses and don't bother to consider who they played.  Most people who make polls don't have time to look deeper than the score of every game.  It's why so many No. 1 teams lost in college football this year.  The pollsters don't take their own polls seriously.  I doubt any of the 4A NW Indiana teams which hope to beat Washington at the Class 4A regional next month feels the Panthers (17-2) are less of a team because they lost to two of the nation's Top-25.

Class 1A No. 1 Oregon-Davis (20-0) beat DeKalb, Illinois Monday (1-21-2008) and romped over the very young Bowman Academy (no juniors or seniors in the school as of yet) Thursday night.  O-D's final game is with Class 3A Marian (6-13) on Jan. 29.  Unless they just choke up on the prospect of being 21-0, the Bobcats will complete the school's first-ever undefeated season.  Porter County Conference (PCC) champion Kouts (16-1) is in Sectional 49 while Oregon-Davis is in Sectional 50.  But as of Jan. 20, there were only nine winning teams in Sectional 49-thru-52.  It is highly unlikely that anyone but Kouts and (Fort Wayne) Canterbury (12-5) can stay within 20 points of Oregon-Davis.

Pairings are announced this Sunday night (6:00 p.m. - EST), Jan. 27 and they'll be on line later Sunday evening and it's especially tense in the Duneland Conference, which has league games to play on the final weekend.  DAC teams in 4A Sectional 2 (Michigan City, Portage, Valpo, LaPorte, LC, CP and Chesterton) could conceivably draw the same team they played on the final weekend.

1.  (4A) Michigan City (16-4)
2007 (22-2) 2006 (14-11), 2005 (6-15), 2004 (6-16)

MICHIGAN CITY:  Michigan City rolled over injury-riddled Portage 67-44 Tuesday night (1-22-2008) in a game that was a foregone conclusion because Portage starters Gloria Hernandez, Lisa Samplawski and Brittany Buzea all are out with injuries.  Michigan City (16-4, 10-2) takes on Merrillville (14-4, 9-4) with a chance to win the Duneland Conference title Friday.  TaKenya Nixon (19.3) scored 18 but three-point star Bianca McGee (17.1 ppg), was 0-for-8 from 3-point range.  But 5-10 forward Essence Robinson scored a career-best 18 with four steals.  Nixon needs five points against Merrillville to reach the 1,000 mark in just three seasons.  The Wolves have a lot of interest in Friday's game since they lost by 17 at home to Merrillville in December, but MC will need more than they usually get from their front court to reverse that decision.  Michigan City has been the No. 1 team here all season and no one but Merrillville can argue the point.

2.  (4A) MERRILLVILLE (14-4)
2007 (16-6), 2006 (19-3), 2005 (12-10), 2004 (12-8)

MERRILLVILLE:  The Pirates turned back Chesterton 63-53 Tuesday night (1-22-2008) with a career-best 28 points from Tierra Turner (15.5 ppg).  The Pirates beat the Trojans by 10 or more for the second time and they are the only DAC team to do that.  Merrillville must shoot well in a matchup with Michigan City and they did against Chesterton, sinking 22 of 27.  Obviously, the first meeting between these two teams, won by the Pirates 82-65, was up-tempo and this one will be, as well.  Merrillville wants to be into Michigan City's bench where they feel they have an edge.  No matter what happens Friday, a third meeting between the Pirates and MC is almost a certainty in the 4A Sectional 2 at Chesterton.  There is a clear gap between the first two teams here and everybody else in NW Indiana.

3.  (4A) Gary West Side (12-4)
2007 (16-6), 2006 (16-7), 2005 (23-5), 2004 (22-3)

GARY:  The Side lost 70-57 to Bogan (16-7) of Chicago, the Cougars' fourth loss in six games after a 9-0 start.  West Side, led by 5-10 forward Jasmine Brown (7.2 rebounds per game) and guard Arielle Anderson (11.2 ppg.) plays their final four games on the road, but three (Gavit, Morton and Lew Wallace) are certain wins.  The Cougars close with South Bend power St. Joseph's on Jan. 30 before the seven-team 4A Sectional one at East Chicago.  Here's another school that plays no one in the DAC and only two of the seven teams in the Northwest Crossroads Conference.  It's hard to rate them because it's hard to know for sure about Chicago foes Bogan, Marshall (17-6) and Maria.  These are good teams, but will they prepare the Cougars for Highland (16-2) at the sectional?  There's no way to know.

4.  (4A) Valparaiso (10-8)
2007 (8-14), 2006 (13-8), 2005 (21-2), 2004 (23-3)

VALPARAISO:  The Vikings jumped on Lake Central 59-47 as the Indians led 13-2 after one quarter.  Fast players can play slow, but the Vikings front line of 6-foot-4 Stefanie Lang, 5-foot-11 Christine Brichta and 6-foot-1 Rebecca Hoefler won't get smaller anytime soon.  When you remember that they were a guaranteed 0-2 in the first week against Carmel (14-4) and Hamilton Southeastern (15-3), Valpo has done better than expected.  If the games slow down in the playoffs, as they usually do, Valpo will play better.  The Vikings are vulnerable at guard, but they are so tall that nobody likes to play against them.  Crown Point and Chesterton are the final two games and a split guarantees a winning season after an 8-14 record last year.  But, with a good draw, this is a team that has a sectional title chance.  Like Michigan City, Chesterton will not see a team in the sectional that is superior to teams they've already played.

5.  (4A) Chesterton (8-9)
2007 (7-14), 2006 (16-8), 2005 (11-11), 2004 (14-8)

CHESTERTON:  Chesterton couldn't hit foul shots (just 18 of 29) in a 63-53 loss to first place Merrillville.  The Trojans lost the match up front as well as the Pirates' 5-foot-8 forward Tierra Turner scored 28.  You have to judge strength of schedule here.  They face 18 4A teams and all but one loss has been to winning squads.  The offense is a concern as they rely on 5-foot-11 forward Abbe Skube and Morgan Palombizio, who scored 17 against Merrillville.  Here's another team that will benefit from the natural slowdown that usually occurs in the playoffs.  In a fast-paced game, the Trojans have no chance.  In a slow-paced game, they are a sectional championship contender.  Lake Central, Highland and Valparaiso are the final three teams on the schedule and the Trojans will head into the 4A Chesterton Sectional very happy with a 10-10 mark.

6.  (4A) Highland (15-2)
2007 (20-6) 2006 (12-11), 2005 (19-5), 2004 (17-6)

HIGHLAND:  The Trojans won their ninth straight game with a 51-26 victory over Wheeler, pulling away after a 27-22 edge after three quarters.  The Trojans sank just 18 of 28 from the foul line, which the way they play, is not good enough.  Faster teams that score tons in transition can get away with a few more turnovers and a lesser foul shot rate.  But Highland has to emphasize 6-foot senior Jordan Bedella, who scored 21 on Wheeler.  They must slow the pace of the game against Gary West Side, the team they must beat at sectional time.  In games like that you need to sink about 75% from the line.  The Trojans face Chesterton (8-9) this week in an interesting game judging the strength of the DAC and the Northwest Crossroads conference.  This will not be a good playoff prep for Highland though because nobody in Sectional one plays like Chesterton.  You have to be concerned here because Highland has played in no tournaments and has faced no Top-10 team in any class.

7.  (4A) Portage (12-5)
2007 (16-9), 2006 (4-17), 2005 (4-17), 2004 (10-12)

PORTAGE:  Portage simply isn't the same team without injured starters Gloria Hernandez, Cayla Criswell and guard Brittany Buzea.  Hernandez is said to be out for the season (I think there's a chance she'll return but many say she won't) with a broken finger on her shooting hand.  Buzea is defintely out with a torn ACL.  Criswell has MCL problems.  Without those three and leading scorer Lisa Samplawski (flu) last Tuesday, Portage lost big to Michigan City.  Forward Hannah Pajor becomes a major player up front as does soph shooter Tara Ellis. The Indians must slow the game down.  They have no chance in any type of up tempo game.  Junior Guard Tiffany Keil is a key ballhandler now.  JV guard Bri Wischman scored 13 against MC.  But this is not a strong team without Buzea and Hernandez.  This ranking reflects where Portage is assuming Samplawski (19.1 ppg), returns for the next game.  The Indians' final three games are at home.  Wins or losses become irrelevant while the Indians build confidence in their new patched-up lineup.

8.  (3A) Griffith (15-3)
2007 (15-7), 2006 (14-8), 2005 (15-8), 2004 (13-9)

GRIFFITH:  The Panthers bounced back from an 11-point loss to Highland to beat Lowell 45-37 as freshman 5-11 forward Ashley Parish scored 18 points.  The Panthers haven't lost two in a row all season, and while that's meaningless in the single-elimination post-season, it speaks to how well a very young team has played.  The Panthers have played a comparatively weak schedule (five 2A teams) so far, but they close with Hammond (14-2) and Calumet (15-3), which is plenty tough enough.  Since league championships only matter until the playoffs start, Griffith probably has more meaningful final two games than anyone else.  And they are in somewhat of a no-lose situation in the final days.  Understand that Calumet and Griffith are in the exact same sectional.  Hammond is also 3A but they are in Sectional 17, not sectional 18, as is Calumet and Griffith.  If the Panthers beat Hammond, it shows they can deal with a more athletic squad.  If they can also beat Calumet, Griffith shows they can deal with a sectional rival that is also having a peak year.  Losses to both wouldn't be good, but would be instructional heading to the sectional.  It's like the Republican Presidential debates.  No matter how bad things get, they can come out of the locker room saying they have things under control.

9.  (1A) Oregon-Davis (20-0)
2007 (25-3), 2006 (14-8), 2005 (11-11), 2004 (7-14)

HAMLET:  Oregon-Davis stopped DeKalb 53-37 in the Chicagoland Shootout Monday (1-21-2008) as Aubrey Minix sank five three-point shots.  The South Bend Tribune reports that all-state 5-foot-6 point guard Gabi Minix (12.9 points per game, 8.6 assist, 5.0 steals, 4.8 rebounds) has been playing with a minor knee injury since Jan. 1 when she was in a minor car accident.  Oregon-Davis has won 39 games in a row and they are the state's first 20-game winner this season.  Two notes from the Sagarin Computer ratings:  1.) Of the top-100 teams in the state of Indiana, there are only two 1A teams, Oregon-Davis, rated 36th and undefeated Jac-Cen-Del (16-0), which is rated 100th.  2.) Oregon-Davis's schedule is rated the 324th toughest in the state.  Fort Wayne Canterbury (12-5) has a strength of schedule rating of 217.  Canterbury has lost to 4A powers Fort Wayne South (17-2) and Carmel (15-3).
Understand that the Bobcats did play and beat 3A South Bend St. Joseph's (10-7), 2A North Judson (11-6) and 2A Bremen (10-7).  Very few undefeated teams win state titles.  Why  Because most of the time you go undefeated because your schedule isn't that tough.

10.  (3A) Hammond (14-2)
2007 (17-9), 2006 (15-8), 2005 (15-7), 2004 (8-12)

HAMMOND:  The Wildcats have only lost to TF North (14-10) and Gary West Side (13-4) so it's hard to be too hard on them.  But are Morton (10-7), Highland (15-3) and Hobart (9-8) the ONLY winning teams Hammond has played.  How can that be?  I'm sorry.  There is Gary Roosevelt (10-8), a team that's lost five in a row.  Hammond didn't even schedule the limit of 20 games.  They only slated 19.  I know there was a coaching change and I cant blame those who are there now.  But everybody schedules 20 games.  The Cats did play the other Hammond public schools twice each and maybe they just couldn't find anybody else, but how come Bowman Academy could call up Oregon-Davis for a game (they got beat 91-25) and Hammond couldn't?  The Wildcats end the season early this Saturday afternoon Jan. 26 at weak Bishop Noll in another no-contest that appears to be a bigger mismatch than the New England Patriots against the New York Giants.

HEY, WHAT ABOUT US??????

(1A) Kouts (17-1)
2007 (20-3), 2006 (12-9), 2005 (12-9), 2004 (13-9)

KOUTS:  Kouts won three games relatively easily to win their first Porter County Conference (PCC) tournament in 17 years.  The Fillies did not have to beat rival Boone Grove as Boone was upset by South Central in the semifinals.  Kouts needed to play Boone.  Kouts' schedule is one of the weakest in the entire state.  That Feb. 1 game at Hobart (9-8) is something the Fillies need.  Kouts can complete a 10-game sweep (3 tourney games and 7 regular season games) of the PCC if they win at home against Hanover (8-8) Saturday afternoon.  But Kouts has the best record in Northwest Indiana.  Their schedule has not been the toughest, but it's the same schedule they play every year and they don't always go 20-1, which is what they're headed for now.  Kouts has won 10 sectional titles and there's no good reason they shouldn't win No. 11 next month.

3A) Calumet (15-3)
2007 (13-8), 2006 (5-16), 2005 (7-15), 2004 (16-10)

GARY:  Calumet won the first Greater South Shore Conference (GSSC) tournament with easy wins over Wheeler, Bishop Noll and Whiting.  Juaniece Jackson scored 20 in the win over Whiting as the warriors overcame 2-of-9 foul shooting.  The Oilers (9-9) have improved, but Calumet wasn't challenged in winning 10 games in a row in the GSSC.  Megan Leal, a 5-foot-4 junior and Aiesha Walker, a 5-foot-5 senior, both scored 12.  Give them all credit.  It's hard to be the big favorite on your home floor and still win three times in five days.  It doesn't matter how big a favorite you are.  It's still hard to win three times in five days as the Calumet boys team found out when they won twice and then lost the title game in double-overtime.  Calumet should be 15-5 when they head to Griffith to end the season on Jan. 31.  Then the Warriors make sure all the kids have their visas for when they have to head south to play in the Rensselaer Sectional because Jasper County is a whole different country compared to Calumet Township.

Out of town...

4A No. 4 Penn (17-2)
16-7 (2007), 14-8 (2006), 14-8 (2005) 16-6 (2004)

OSCEOLA:  They're one of the three powerhouse teams that will battle it out in 4A Sectional three on the home floor of state champion (South Bend) Washington.  Penn, with an enrollment of 3,030, is led by two Division I players in 6-foot-2 Lily Svete (17.7 points, 9.0 rebounds per game) and 5-foot-8 Kelsey Reynolds (18.5 points per game).  These two have played together all their lives, wining the AAU state title as 15-year-olds in 2006 after being runner-ups in 2005 as 14-year-olds.  The Kingsmen also have a 5-foot-8 shooting guard Sarah Strachan, who sank three three-pointers in Penn's 59-34 win over Concord on Jan. 22.  Senior 5-foot-10 center Alex Dunfee scored 12 with eight rebounds in Penn's 77-39 blowout of St. Joseph's, breaking S. Joe's 10-game win streak.  Penn has not survived sectional play in two years because they have lost to Elkhart Memorial in each of the last two seasons.  Now, Penn has been shipped away from the Elkhart sectional into South Bend where they face city schools like Clay and Washington.  That's a problem.  Washington has won six in a row from Penn, including an intimidating 71-48 whipping on Jan. 9.  Penn's other loss is 66-59 to Fort Wayne South (17-2).

But what might be lost in the glow of Washington's 45-3 record the last two seasons is that Penn has won 13 games by 10 points or more.  Penn is one of only two teas to beat Chicago Public school superpower Whitney Young (19-2).  Penn will enter the playoffs well-rested, almost too well-rested.  The Kingsmen's final game is Jan. 25.  If they draw a bye at the Washington sectional, Penn will have 13 days off before they play a sectional semifinal.  Penn will enter the sectional having defeated every other sectional rival BUT Washington.

Penn doesn't need a bye in the post-season.  They need to draw anyone but Washington in the quarterfinals, then get Washington on semifinal Friday, Feb. 8.  If they get that scenario, I think Penn has a 25% chance to beat Washington on Washington's home floor.  Washington is not 23 points better than Penn and Penn is a bigger team physically.  It's hard to accept that with seven seniors and two all-staters, Penn doesn't have at least an outside chance to eliminate the defending 4A state champs.  That's not much, but no Indiana school has beaten Washington since Nov. 8, 2006. 

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