2008-2009 Renegade Girls Basketball  Week-9 Poll A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith (02-10-2009)

MICHIGAN CITY, IN (02-10-2009) The state tournament begins with no favorites in Northwest Indiana in Class 3A and 4A and virtually no state contenders.  About the only thing that we can be sure of in the upcoming playoffs is that some games will be postponed by bad weather.  Several teams in the north and the extreme south part of the state simply didn't finish the 20-game schedule due to multiple postponements.

The highlights of the Northwest Indiana season were probably the 20-win season for Calumet, the first in the history of the school, Michigan City's third consecutive DAC title and the five-way tie in the Porter County Conference (PCC), only the second in Northwest Indiana history.

I would be shocked if anyone other than Oregon-Davis reached the state finals in any class.  Boone Grove (15-5) and Hanover Central eventually must defeat Garrett at the 2A Culver Regional.  That's basically the same Garrett (18-1) team that beat both last February.

In 3A, two NW Indiana survivors have to deal with a Benton Central (19-1) team that defeated 4A power Gary West Side.  It's hard to see Calumet or Hammond defeating Plymouth (16-4), another likely qualifier for the 3A Twin Lakes Regional.  Calumet, Andrean and Griffith must fight it out at the Knox Sectional just to get to Twin Lakes.

Undefeated 4A superpower South Bend Washington (22-0) has already crushed Gary West Side and Michigan City, arguably the two most talented 4A teams in NW Indiana and probably Valpo Regional qualifier Elkhart Memorial (15-3) would be favored to defeat anyone in Lake and Porter County.

Oregon-Davis (19-1) is certain to survive sectional play on their home floor and Kouts (17-3) and 1A No. 9 Canterbury (17-3) seem overmatched at the regional level.  Turkey Run (16-2), which defeated Griffith on New Year's day, might stop O-D at the semi state, but most of the good 1A teams (most 1A teams, period) are in the southern half of the state.  If lead guard Gabrielle (Gabi) Minix (15.0 ppg.) and all-time leading 3-point shooting champion and sister Aubrey Minix (23.6 ppg.) are healthy, the Bobcats should be playing the first game in the Lucas Oil Arena on March 7.

I had forgotten that Conseco Fieldhouse is unavailable in the first week of March, but it's true that the Indiana state girls finals will be played in the state-of-the art downtown home of the Indianapolis Colts.  It seems too large an arena for basketball, but I'm told it is not and that the seating and video screens are top flight.  My hope is that the girls get to stay at the adjoining hotels so they get the entire experience of being there.  I don't know how much is complete, but there is said to be an underground mall planned to exist between the hotels and the stadium.  No northwest Indiana high school football team reached the Lucas Oil-hosted state finals and the boys finals are at Conseco.

1.  (4A) Michigan City (16-3)
2008 (20-6), 2007 (22-2), 2006 (14-11), 2005 (6-15), 2004 (6-16)

MICHIGAN CITY:   You can argue they are not as good as they were last year but Michigan City is the DAC champ for the third consecutive year as senior guards TaKenya Nixon (19.1 ppg.) and Bianca McGee (11.2 ppg.) led the squad to another big winning season. The Wolves did not get a good raw, however. They may have to face Crown Point (11-8), Merrillville (10-9) and Valparaiso (12-7) to win the Chesterton Sectional.  Eventually, someone is going to play a total denial box-and-one against Nixon and the other MC girls are go got have to be a better until than they have been so far.

2.  (4A) Valparaiso (12-7)
2008 (13-10) 2007 (8-14), 2006 (13-8), 2005 (21-2), 2004 (23-3)

VALPARAISO:  Valparaiso has the size to win the Class 4A Chesterton Sectional and when game slow down (as they always do in the playoffs) the bigger team gets better.  Senior guard Tara Villarreal (12.4 ppg.), 6-foot-4 center like Stefanie Lang (13.51 ppg.) and 5-foot-10 small forward Kelsie Ostojic (11.2 ppg,.) gives Valpo more balance than anyone else in Sectional 2.  Valpo has played the toughest non conference schedule of anyone in the sectional and they don't have a long travel chore to go to Chesterton. Plus, the VHS girls could host the regional.  Valpo isn't the sectional favorite, but they're the sectional winner.

3.  (4A) Chesterton (12-7)
2008 (10-11), 2007 (7-14), 2006 (16-8), 2005 (11-11), 2004 (14-8)

CHESTERTON:  The Trojans have made a late run. I don't know why 6-foot senior Abbe Skube missed time (she was not injured but she's back) and the Trojans seem ready to host the very difficult 8-team Sectional 2.  Chesterton's 11-7 record is deceptive.  They have not lost to a team with a losing record and four losses are by 10 points or less.  Skube (12.5 ppg.) and Morgan Palombizio (11.7) are ready to go.  Palombizio is playing with a broken finger, but she hasn't missed any time.  This team matches up best with Valparaiso and worst with Michigan City.  They certainly have a chance to win the sectional title, if only because they don't have to get on the bus three times to do it.  There are teams with better records than Valpo and Chesterton but that's all they've got.  You can't rank teams based on record when some schools play much tougher schedules.

4.  (4A) Gary West Side (13-6)
2008 (18-5), 2007 (16-6) 2006 (16-7), 2005 (23-5), 2004 (20-4)

GARY:  The Cougars looked good in the final 10 days with big wins over losing teams Lew Wallace and St. Joseph's. (6-13).  The 'Side' has played (Chicago) Marshall (21-4), Jefferson (16-4), South Bend Washington (21-0), Andrean (12-8) and Benton Central (20-1) but the Side didn't win any of those games.  I believe that you gain by losing to superior teams, but I'd have been more comfortable with the Cougars ranked this highly if they'd beaten any of those teams.  There are no quality wins here.  West Side beating Hammond (14-4), considering the size of the schools is not that good a win.  Still, the Cougars are clearly the best team in 4A Sectional One.

5.  (3A) Griffith (14-6)
2008 (17-5), 2007 (15-7), 2006 (14-8), 2005 (15-8), 2004 (13-9)

GRIFFITH:  The Panthers dominated Calumet (18-3) by 20 points in the final game of the season.  If you've been reading this site for a year or so, you know I thought Griffith is the 'coming' team with the best chance (outside of 1A) to get to the semistate.  The time is now.  I don't think the Panthers are 20 points better than Calumet, but Griffith has beaten Cal (18-3), KV (13-7), Hobart (14-5) and Andrean (12-8) twice.  Plus, the Panthers live at a slow pace, which frustrates other teams.  Giving Griffith a bye at the Knox Sectional so they don't have to make three trips to Starke County -- here is the sectional favorite.

6.  (1A) Oregon-Davis (18-2)
2008 (24-1), 2007 (25-3), 2006 (14-8), 2005 (11-11), 2004 (7-14)

HAMLET:  The losses are to Plainfield (19-1) and Elkhart Memorial (17-3), two 4A unbeaten squads and those teams aren't 1A. The only problem about O-D going into the playoffs is that they play fast and state tournament teams aren't always going to be allowed to play fast.  The nerves of the playoffs alone force the games to slow down and it's hard to play a style that's not yours and win four or five games in a row.

7.  (4A) Crown Point (12-8)
2008 (6-15), 2007 (10-11), 2006 (11-11), 2005 (17-6), 2004 (14-8)

CROWN POINT:  The Lady Bulldogs got Flori Garcia back at guard at the seasons' end and they are still using a 9-girl rotation.  It was big for them to win the final game of the season, at injury-weakened Merrillville 54-40.  I think CP survived the final month with some confidence, and even though they've lost seven times in a row to Michigan City (17-3), the Lady Bulldogs have a chance and they're better facing them on opening night than they would be at the end of a 3-game week.  5-foot-11 volleyball star Zarah Cecich adds shot-blocking in the middle, but the key will probably be Sydnee Reeves and her ability to block shots and push the ball against the fast MC girls.  Like West Side, they really don't have a quality win all year, but top scorer Daniela Tarailo (18 ppg.) gives them a chance.

8.  (4A) Portage (11-7)
2008 (13-8), 2007 (16-9) 2006 (4-17), 2005 (4-17), 2004 (10-12)

PORTAGE:  They swept Michigan City, but they split with Valpo and Chesterton, so they are capable of winning one game.  It's very impressive how they have won with largely seven players.  Bri Wischmann (13.5 ppg.) and Tara Ellis (10.6 ppg.) have scored just enough, but in the post-season, they are going to need to out-rebound everybody and that's where 6-foot Tori Bliss and 6-foot-1 Hannah Pajor must get their hands on the ball all night long.  There are some good defenses in Sectional 2, so it may come down to who grabs more missed shots.

9. (3A) Andrean (12-8)
2008 (8-12), 2007 (18-5), 2006 (15-8), 2005 (9-13)

MERRILLVILLE:  The 59ers broke a three-game losing streak in late January with a 62-36 win over Bishop Noll.  It's going to be a struggle for them in the playoffs.  Their top player Natasha Zurek (7.9 ppg.) is just a sophomore and that usually doesn't work in the post-season.  But I would suggest that the 59ers have played the toughest schedule of anyone in the Class 3A Knox Sectional and they may need to be reminded that they did defeat Gary West Side (14-6) and Hobart (14-5).  The draw came out well for them.  The 59ers got a bye and they can't face Griffith until the title game.  I think it will be Griffith and Andrean in the finals and that should be what Andrean wants to happen.

10.  (4A) MERRILLVILLE (10-10)
2008 (17-5), 2007 (16-6), 2006 (19-3), 2005 (12-10), 2004 (12-8)

MERRILLVILLE:  Merrillville did not win after leading scorer Tierra Turner (17 ppg.) suffered a knee injury and was lost for the season.  The Pirates still have a lot of speed and freshman guard Raveen Murray is a future star.  But the Pirates basically have seven players right now and there is understandable confusion in half court situations.  It's not impossible that they win one playoff game, but they will run into teams in 4A Sectional 2 that will slow them down, and right now, that's going to be a big problem.  But you can't honestly rate Calumet (18-3) or Hammond (14-4) above Merrillville.  That's not the real world.

On the outside looking in...

4A Hobart (14-5)
2008 (12-9), 2007 (7-14), 2006 (11-11), 2005 (13-10)

HOBART:  The Brickies are lucky to draw Merrillville in the sectional quarterfinals because the Pirates are without Tierra Turner (17 ppg.), their leading scorer.  The Brickies have held 15 teams to 40 points or less, but again, that may say more about the teams they played than their defense.  Hobart has defeated Calumet and Griffith, but they don't get to play them in 4A Sectional 2.  The Brickies needed to schedule South Bend Washington, Elkhart Memorial or even Michigan City or West Side and they didn't.  Hobart's schedule was soft for a 4A team and it is highly unlikely they can win three games in four days against the DAC.  But to play three games here would help them in the future.