1.) 3A Griffith (17-5)

19-15 in 2005, 19-14 in 2004, 17-12 in 2003

GRIFFITH  -   The Panthers had at least four days off due to rain and they were one of the top seeds in this weeks' LAC tournament.  Ryan Bridges (22-58, .466), Trent Bierman (23-54, .426) and  Brian Bell (27-65, .416) lead the attack.  Pitchers Matt Kuna (4-1, 2.15 ERA) and Matt Nelleman (5-0, 2.60 ERA) have gotten help from lefty Will Frets (3-2, 2.45 ERA, 21Ks, just 5 walks in 28 innings) and they have some depth heading into next week's LAC tournament.

I don't know how valuable the LAC tournament is to Griffith, but they can't let the results affect them one way or another.  No matter what is said, with perennial winners Highland, KV and Gavit all .500 or below and Andrean a notch down from 2005, this is clearly a down year in the LAC overall.  The Panthers have much higher goals.  But Griffith plays in an all-LAC sectional, so they have a chance to be a little intimidating here two weeks before the tournament.

ODDS:  Griffith's chances of reaching the state finals are about 15%, which is pretty good.  They have to beat Clark and Andrean just to get out of the regional and there are very gifted teams from Norwell (18-1) and West Lafayette that block everyone's path at the Plymouth (3A) semistate.  The screwed-up, hurry-up, three-week baseball format may require a semistate champ to play six playoff games in 12 days and the Panthers may not have that kind of proven depth in pitching.  The odds against Griffith are 6-1 or 7-1 but those are pretty good odds.

 

2.) 4A LAKE CENTRAL (15-5)

28-3 in 2005, 24-7 in 2004, 23-6-1 in 2003

ST. JOHN  -  Lake Central has had at least five days off after a 7-5 win over Merrillville and they have a rematch with LaPorte, a game they lost 13-0 last month.  LC, which knew they had a good offense going in, has played 20 games and they have scored four or more runs in 18 of them.  They also have catcher and No. 3 hitter Brett Clark (24-62, .452, 7 HRs, 22 RBIs), but what's gotten into Ryan Frost, who has seven homers, including two in the win over Merrillville?  This is a good hitting squad.

ODDS:  Lake Central's odds of reaching the state finals are pretty good because they can roll out four starting pitchers in Ranko Ivetic (6-1), Brad Gerlach (4-1), Scott Handley (1-0) and Matt Murphy (3-1), all of whom have pitched complete games in their last start before the rains hit.  But it comes down to whether LC is good enough on the field to win six games in 12 days.  LC has a better pitching staff than Merrillville and better position players than rival Crown Point.  But with Munster looming at the sectional and LaPorte or Penn (15-3) or Elkhart Memorial at the semistate, LC's odds are about 8-1 of reaching the 4A state title game.

 

3.)  3A ANDREAN   (18-5) 

33-2  in 2005, 26-8 in 2004, 27-7 in 2003

MERRILLVILLE  -  Andrean was on  a roll when the floods came.  Joe Mack (28-50, .560), Eddie Reardon (15-35, .429) and Chris Skinner (22-52, .412, 21 steals) lead the attack with Adam Norton (29-50, .580) batting No. 3.  Down the stretch, the 59ers get good prep from playing Merrillville and Clay (11-6).  Andrean has scored 10 or more 11 times and has played only three one-run games in 23 starts and the offense seems formidable.

ODDS:  There is depth here with Nick Murphy (4-0), Chris DeGiulio (5-1), Kellen Mackin (4-1) and Norton (3-1).  Again, check the format.  If you don't have at least three pitchers who can start and win against top competition, your chances are zero because the state tournament set-up will blow your mind.  The 59ers are a young team on the mound, but they have a lot of playoff experience in the field.  Odds are heavily against them, but I'll give them a 10% shot to reach the title game.

 

4.) 4A CROWN POINT (13-8)

21-12 in 2005, 17-11 in 2004, 22-10 in 2003

CROWN POINT  -   Crown Point smoked out LaPorte 16-5, but then didn't play for five days because the clouds were crying.  Even after last week's win, CP has scored only 46 runs in 11 league games (4.1) and that's weaker than it seems.  High school teams need to average a minimum of five runs a game to call them selves good.  What the Bulldogs need to do is to score a lot of runs the rest of the way and a six-day layoff (due to rain) will not help.  CP vs. Merrillville (17-3) has been rescheduled for Monday in what will be a five-game week for CP.  Clark (17-3) and Elkhart Memorial (17-5) are still on then schedule, but to be honest, the Bulldogs need to see 76 left-handed pitchers in a row.  Their season will be defined by how they attack the very strong left-handed pitching of Merrillville, Valparaiso and Chesterton.

ODDS:  The loss of right-hander Tommy Wise (3-1) for the season is significant, but CP has the pitching to roll with Matt Jansen, Chris Saroff, Matt Ernest and Marcus Shrewsbury, who pitched a nine-inning complete-game win over Lafayette Jefferson.  The problem is offense and that's why this break was probably good for them.  This is not a hugely talented offensive team, but their youth league experience at the state finals level at more than one level of play gives them a shot next month.  But no more than a 10% shot.

 

5.) 4A MERRILLVILLE (17-3)

12-15  in 2005, 16-11 in 2004, 7-20  in 2003

MERRILLVILLE  -  The Pirates were slowed 7-5 at Lake Central Tuesday, but that's no big deal.  Everybody's going to lose a half dozen games.  Merrillville also the got five days off because of the monsoon.  The Pirates are 4-1 in 2-run games and 4-1 in one run games and, while that speaks well of the pitching and senior composure, it does not speak well of the Pirate offense.  You cannot play that many close games and survive in a seven game single-elimination tournament.  The Pirates have outscored 20 foes by a combined score of 105-48.

ODDS:  The state tourney format may require six games in 12 days and Merrillville does not have that type of pitching with only Caleb Douglas (5-0) and Adam Farag (7-1) being consistent winners.  Jeremy Maynard (1-0) pitched a four-hit complete game against Lowell (5-15), but could he win a regional title game on the road?  Because of the speed and experience, the Pirates have an outside shot.  But it's 40-1 or 50-1 against them even reaching the finals with all the rivals and the talent in 4A.

 

6.) 4A LaPORTE (16-6)

30-5 in 2005, 25-7 in 2004, 22-10 in 2003, 20-9 in 2002, 28-2 in 2001

LaPORTE  -   LaPorte could reach that 20-win plateau with four games this week.  Senior all-stater Nick Overmeyer (32-71, .451) has been a dominant second baseman, while Matt Antos (6-3, 2.03 ERA) and Matt Elliott (5-1, 3.43 ERA) have been good enough on the mound.  The Slicers also got five days off, which probably helps an experienced team more than an inexperienced one.  Down the stretch, the Slicers will roll up wins on wanna-bes like Clark (19-3).  But they won't see anybody who can help them get ready for teams like Northern Indiana Conference (NIC) champion Penn (15-3) or Northern Lakes Conference champion Elkhart Memorial (17-5) at regional time.  LaPorte has had, what for them, is an adequate 2/3 of the season. If you think I can tell you the future for a team that defeated Lake Central 13-0 and 10 days later lost to Crown Point 16-5, when CP (13-8) and LC (15-5) split their two meetings, you're looking into the wrong crystal ball.

ODDS:  This team probably does not have the pitchers to reach the finals.  They are battle-tested and tradition-rich and you can never count them out.  But can they win three playoff games in five days... or two semistate games in the same day?  Probably not.  The odds against the Slicers reaching the final are 40-1 or 50-1, pretty much like Merrillville.

 

7.) 4A Valparaiso (13-10)

8-21 in 2005, 16-13 in 2004, 25-5 in 2003, 27-5 in 2002

VALPARAISO  -  The Vikings lost 5-3 to Chesterton before beating Michigan City 8-2 in the rain Friday.  Clint Krysa (4-4) and Chooch Sizemore (6-4) are solid, but who's the No. 3 starter?  Valpo's double-header loss to Lafayette Catholic 2-0 and 8-1 indicates 1.) that they can hang with the elite teams and 2.) that they now know what they're up against.

Sizemore (28-61, .459) is a strong No. 3 hitter which the top teams must have, but what's up with the defense?  Nine errors in two games last week... Ouch!

ODDS:  No one wants to face Sizemore in the state tournament opener.  But almost everybody in 4A sectional two (Chesterton-Danny Lambert; Merrillville-Adam Farag, Crown Point-Matt Jansen) has a left-handed starter like that.  Valpo could win one or two games, but it's about 100-1 that they'd reach the state finals.

 

8.) 2A Bishop Noll (12-10)

2005 (12-19), 2004 (21-11), 2003 (16-10)

HAMMOND  -  The Warriors smoked out Kankakee Valley 10-0 on May 10, and then took four days off.  Danny Faulkner allowed just three hits in seven innings, but don't let the two games above .500 fool you.  This team seems destined to finish .500 and they don't really have the pitching to survive the long LAC tournament this week.  However, that shouldn't be a goal.

They just need to play well four times.  'Playing well' is defined as making no errors, a season-long problem.

ODDS:  Very good.  Even before this last streak that saw them win 9 out of 14.  Class 2A is pretty good in NW Indiana, but not strong in northern Indiana overall.  With three solid pitchers in Faulkner, Jimmy Bowers (3-2) and Jimmy Flores (3-2), this team has playoff potential.  Remember, they play 3A and 4As all season.  The odds against Noll reaching the finals are about 4-1 because of the defense.

 

9.) 4A Munster (14-8)

19-14 in 2005, 23-6 in 2004, 20-10  in 2003

MUNSTER  -   Chris Winterhaler (2-2) pitched a three-hit shutout, 1-0 Wednesday (5-10-2006) against rival Highland (11-11) and that speaks well for the state tournament.  The Mustangs are up-and-down, but Sectional one with Lowell, East Chicago and Gary West Side is among the state's weakest 4A sectionals.  Munster could win the LAC tournament this week because they are the hosts and they are in the soft side of the bracket.  But that and a bone won't get you a dog.

ODDS:  Jake Ernd (5-0) has been consistent and Winterhaler was good last week, but there's nowhere near enough pitching for Munster to reach the state finals in Class 4A.  Mike Sealy (1-2) might be better than his record and they play in a weak sectional.  But look at Class 4A.  Look at who they'd have to beat at the semistate.  The odds against Munster going to the finals are at least 50-1.

 

10.) 2A Boone Grove (16-3)

24-7 in 2005, 17-12 in 2004, 21-7 in 2003

PORTER TOWNSHIP  -  Jim Kulchar (19-45, .422) and Drew Kidd (26-58, .448) have both been batting over .400 all year and the Wolves have not lost two games in a row this season.  Boone has outscored the opposition 173-61, a robust 9.1 runs scored per game.  They have played a tough schedule and that should put them in good shape against the PCC next week.  I see three winning pitchers here in Kyle Ferber (4-1), David Diaz (3-1) and Ryan Cupp (5-0) to benefit from that offense.  They play seven DAC teams and they seem to have every reason to be confident.  The only draw back to Boone's schedule is that they never see Bishop Noll till the sectional.

ODDS:  As good a schedule as Boone plays, Noll plays a better one.  This is one of Boone's best teams and they have the pitching, but the concept of playing a team that has faced 3A and 4A foes all year is unsettling.  I think Boone's odds to reach the state finals are 5-1, very much like Nolls.  Although we can't know, because they never play, I think Noll is a run better than Boone.  But get Boone past Noll and they'd be 50-50 to get to the state finals.

 

On the outside looking in ...

 

11.) 4A Chesterton (7-10)

12-12 in 2005, 19-9 in 2004, 8-20 in 2003

CHESTERTON  -    Player for player, Chesterton is a top-10 team with top-10 pitching.  They've beaten Griffith and Valparaiso, but they haven't beaten enough of the good teams on their schedule.  The Trojans have struggled offensively all season much like Crown Point.  I'm wondering where are the other games on this schedule?  The Trojans surely have some heavy weekends down the stretch and they may still hit a winning streak.  They certainly have the pitching with a senior Division I left-hander like John Lambert (4-2).  The Trojans need the rain to stay away so they can play in the Carmel Invite this week.  Chesterton hasn't played enough.

ODDS:  There's nothing to indicate they could win five playoff games here.  Lambert (4-2) could beat anyone, but then what?  Right now I would say they have no chance to reach the state finals.

 

12.) 3A Clark (19-3)

22-7 in 2005, 24-5 in 2004, 21-8 in 2003, 20-5 in 2002

HAMMOND  -  Clark finished 14-0 in the LAC Blue with romps over Wheeler 14-3, Whiting 7-3 and Calumet 14-4.  As they progress in the LAC tournament, we will again be inundated with another barrage of 'we don't get no respect' Clark comments.  I've said this before, but as long as you are still complaining about not being considered that good, then you aren't that good.  Once you have established yourselves, you must stop crying poor mouth.  That has become a Clark trait.

The Pioneers do not benefit from playing virtually the same schedule they played 20 years ago in every sport.  They NEVER leave the region for a game.  There is a Baseball Coaches' association web site that posts teams that need games.  It's been there for a few years.  The site exists so that teams can put together late season games to make up for non conference rainouts or holes in the schedule.  Benton Central, for example, has a one-day four-team single-elimination tournament on May 20 with Mishawaka and Western.  Two 3As and a 4A.  Anybody can get in for just making the call.  There's a dozen opportunities like this and all coaches know about this site.  The point is, schools can play as tough a schedule as they want to play.  The argument that 'We have no control over our schedule' is as lame as that loser in the minor leagues who threw the bat and said he "didn't mean to hit the umpire with it."  But the Pioneers do get outside the metropolitan Wolf Lake area annually for one week.  Clark does play Crown Point (13-8) on May 18 and at LaPorte (16-6) on May 23.

ODDS:  Similar to Chesterton.  The Pioneers have Drew Polak (5-1) and Trent Howard and Jon Carpen as winning pitchers, but none are proven against teams like Andrean and Griffith.  And they have no knowledge of what lies beyond that.  I'd say that Clark has no chance of reaching the state finals in Class 3A.

 

Lake Athletic Conference  (LAC) Tournament
1st round  ------  Monday, May 15, 4:30 p.m.
Calumet (3-15) at Griffith (17-5),  Highland (11-11) at Whiting (14-6)
Hammond (5-14) at Andrean (18-5),  Hobart (9-11) at Wheeler (14-8)
Lake Station (3-12) at Munster (14-8),  Kankakee Valley (9-13) at Morton (14-9)
Gavit (7-15) at Bishop Noll (12-10),  Lowell (5-15) at Clark (18-3)

Quarterfinals  -  2nd round  ------ Tuesday, May 16, 4:30 p.m.
Calumet or Griffith vs. Highland or Whiting
Hammond or Andrean vs. Hobart or Wheeler
Lake Station or Munster vs KV or Morton
Gavit or Noll vs.  Lowell or Clark

Semifinals  -  3rd round  ------  Thursday, May 18, 4:30 p.m.
Game One: probably Andrean vs. Griffith
Game Two: probably Munster vs. Clark or Bishop Noll

4th round  ------  Saturday, May 20. finals
3rd place: 4:00 p.m.
Championship: 7:00 p.m. at Munster

WHAT WILL HAPPEN:  The 16-team LAC tournament usually does not feature early upsets because there is a grand canyon between the top and the bottom of the league.  If Griffith, Andrean or Munster loses in the first round, there should be an investigation.  There's that much of a difference in caliber here.  Clark has not played a good schedule and they may struggle with Lowell and Bishop Noll.  Assuming the final four are Munster, Griffith, Andrean and Noll, Munster has an edge.

I don't know how this tournament was seeded.  Andrean and Griffith are the two best teams in the LAC and few would argue with that.  For Clark to be seeded ahead of Andrean when Andrean played a significantly tougher schedule and defeated Clark head-to-head is ridiculous on the face of it.  But, again, there may be another criteria here.  Clark's 'Judgment day' will come early against Bishop Noll (12-10), a rising force, in the quarterfinals.  If they advance beyond that point, they have lived up to their record.  But Noll probably beats Clark because Bishop Noll has as good or a better team despite the records.

Griffith will probably lineup Matt Nelleman for a potential Thursday night game with Andrean and the 59ers, who figure to use anyone BUT freshman Adam Norton. Why? Norton three-hit Andrean on May 4 and there's no logic in pitching him until the Panthers figure him out.  Plus, Norton is the Niners best shortstop.  Griffith needs a strong second round game from pitcher Matt Kuna against Highland or Whiting.  Whiting will probably go with Matt Kobli against Highland and they will have little pitching left for the quarterfinal match with Griffith.

Griffith and Andrean both want to win, but neither should throw the pitcher they will throw at the regional if and when the two sides meet again.  I would think Griffith would pitch Matt Kuna in the quarterfinals and title game, leap-frogging the contest with Andrean, a team Kuna figures to face in June.

If the tourney goes the way I have stated here, Andrean is the favorite.  The 59ers have defeated all the other contenders here including Clark, Munster and Griffith.  Noll is 2-0 against Andrean, but the Warriors are 0-2 against Munster, so Noll probably won't get to Andrean.

The 59ers and Griffith have the best hitting teams, but the Niners have more pitching depth and in a long tournament you may get down to your third and fourth pitcher. With Norton, Kellen Mackin and Chris DeGuilio facing Griffith's righty laden batting order in the semifinals, the Niners should prevail in the key game of the tournament.
Munster does not have a pitcher who can contain Andrean for seven innings.

Andrean continues their dominance of the LAC tournament, winning for the fifth time in six years.