1.) 3A Griffith (22-7)
19-15 in 2005, 19-14 in 2004, 17-12 in 2003

GRIFFITH  -   The Panthers lost twice in the LAC tournament, falling to Andrean in the semifinals and Munster in the consolation game (a game neither local newspaper covered).  Griffith beat Lake Central 3-2 Tuesday and Portage 5-0 Wednesday and they appear to be ready for a home field sectional semifinal against Clark (21-5).

The Panthers may have had a relatively quiet season, but they did beat Merrillville (20-7), Crown Point (20-8), Andrean (23-7) and Lake Central (17-9).  Catcher Trent Bierman (29-65, .446, 4 HRs, 27 RBIs) and shortstop Ryan Bridges (31-72, .431, 2 HRs, 26 RBIs) lead the attack in front of pitchers Matt Kuna (5-1) and Matt Nelleman (5-1).  The pitching beyond Kuna is the question.  With three wins in the final week over 4A schools, I like this team to win in sectional play.  But then I liked Michael Andretti to win the 500, too.

 

2.) 4A CROWN POINT (20-8)
21-12 in 2005, 17-11 in 2004, 22-10 in 2003

CROWN POINT  -   It has been an odd-season for the pre-season No. 1 teams.  Ready: The Bulldogs went 6-0 and then lost four straight. CP then won four in a row to go to 10-4 before losing 4-of-6 to drop down to 12-8.  Then Crown Point won the final eight games of the season including a solid 4-1 win over Class 4A No. 5 Elkhart Memorial (23-6) last Friday night in Crown Point.  Why are they down a notch from the pre-season No. 1 position?  I'm not sure who's healthy for the playoffs.  Pitcher Tommy Wise (3-1) is injured and unavailable to throw, although he will be the designated-hitter.  Second baseman Nick Ullman and third baseman Tommy Parks missed the final two weeks of the season with injuries.  But CP got a quarterfinal bye which gives Parks and Ullman every opportunity to heal up enough to face Valparaiso (15-12) on Thursday, June 1 in the 4A Valpo semifinals.  Matt Jansen (6-2), Chris Saroff (3-3), Matt Ernest (2-1) and Blake Mascarello (2-2) gives the Bulldogs plenty of starting pitching and CP scored 73 runs in the eight-game winning streak as well.  They needed a first round bye and they got one.  CP's question mark is, can they score the four or five runs they'll need to win playoff games?

 

3.) 4A LAKE CENTRAL (19-9)
28-3 in 2005, 24-7 in 2004, 23-6-1 in 2003

ST. JOHN  -  Teams obviously don't report postponed games, but let's assume that the May 25 LC game at Benton Central was canceled due to shaky weather that night. That makes the 3-2 loss to Griffith on May 23 LC's season finale.  The season here went about the way Crown Point's did with winning weeks and down times.  They also have catcher and No. 3 hitter Brett Clark (25-56, .446, 7 HRs, 23 RBIs).  But what's gotten into Ryan Frost, who has seven homers, including two in the win over Merrillville?  This is a good hitting squad.

LC is fortunate to be in sectional play with Highland, Munster, East Chicago, Lowell and Gary West Side.  That's a not a powerful six-pack there.  But LC was a long, tall favorite last year when the Indians were upset by Munster.  LC doesn't have the half dozen big wins you'd like them to have.  They stopped Crown Point 6-0 and nipped rival Munster 5-4, but LC was spanked twice by LaPorte in the new rivalry for the 21st Century in NW Indiana.

You've still got to like the pitching rotation of Ranko Ivetic (6-1), Brad Gerlach (4-1), Scott Handley (1-2, 4 saves) and Matt Murphy (3-1) and only Munster seems to stand in the way.  But again, that's the way it appeared last year, too.  The late part of the season was not strong, as LC lost four of their last seven.  It's hard to keep them ahead of LaPorte, as the Slicers beat LC twice.  But LC has nine seniors and a good consistent offense in a mediocre sectional.

 

4.) 4A LaPORTE (24-6)
30-5 in 2005, 25-7 in 2004, 22-10 in 2003, 20-9 in 2002, 28-2 in 2001

LaPORTE  -    Here's the team that acted like a state finalist in the final two weeks.  The Slicers started swinging like Michael Barrett and they put everybody on suspension with seven consecutive wins to seal up the regular season.  Let's tell the whole story.  Five of the final seven wins were against Michigan City, Portage, Lowell and Goshen twice.  That's not the St. Louis Cardinals.  But an 11-3 romp over Lake Central and the 14-2 attitude adjustment they handed Clark did speak clearly.

If you think I can tell you the future for a team that defeated Lake Central 13-0 and 10 days later lost to Crown Point 16-5, when CP (13-8) and LC (15-5) split their two meetings, you're looking into the wrong crystal ball.  The streak gave LaPorte 20 wins for the 40th season in a row, a record that dwarfs anything anyone else has ever done in Indiana high school sports.

I think the pitching isn't strong, but when you end up 10-4 in the DAC and your wins include a 6-0 spanking of Penn and a 14-1 beat down of Plymouth, plus the two league routs of Lake Central, you don't have to apologize for not getting shutouts. 

Second baseman Nick Overmeyer (44-99, .444, 4 HRs, 32 RBIs, 21 steals, 45 runs scored) is a four-year starter who might be the state player of the year, even though he's virtually unknown in Lake County.  Ian Nielsen (34-88, .409, 28 RBIs) and Jimmy Gilliland (28-81, .346, 39 RBIs, 22 walks) have shiny numbers.  Matt Antos (10-4, 2.62 ERA) and Matt Elliott (7-1. 3.95) aren't going to strike anybody out, so the LaPorte defense must stay strong.  I have the Slicers with only 24 errors in 29 game, almost unheard of for a high school team without strikeout pitchers.

LaPorte sectional's competition (they open with low-rent South Bend Washington (10-13) is perennial as average as those last three singers on 'America Idol' but a rematch with Penn or a showdown with Elkhart Memorial looms large at regional time.

 

5.)  3A ANDREAN   (24-7 ) 
33-2 in 2005, 26-8 in 2004, 27-7 in 2003

MERRILLVILLE  -  Andrean lost 5-3 to Merrillville in the final week, but they also put some serious hurt on South Bend Clay (17-8) and Michigan City, winning 13-1 and 12-0.  Once again, a tip of the cap to 59er coach Dave Pishkur.  Forget the 23 wins.  Pishkur was able to bend and shape the stone-age IHSAA game restrictions and squeeze in 30 regular season baseball games.   Teams must play as many games as they possibly can.  That's why you have a team.

Joe Mack (31-59, .525) started a bit slow, but once he started hitting, he never stopped.  I don't know where Adam Norton (33-58, .569, 3 HRs. 29 RBIs) has found those big boy numbers.  I didn't know that Chris Skinner (.380) had scored 42 runs and stolen 32 bases in just 30 games.  But Andrean is a lot like LaPorte.  If the pitchers can hold the other side to four runs, Andrean can will be in every game they play.

The Niners are big favorites in their sectional with Kankakee Valley (15-14) as the only threat.  But they have been reminded that the 59ers girls softball team was in the exact same situation and the girls got shut out.  This is a very unpredictable team because of the youth involved, but with a first round bye, it's hard to see anyone knocking them out during sectional week.  No Lake or Porter County team has ever won back-to-back baseball titles and here is the latest with an opportunity.

 

6.) 4A MERRILLVILLE (22-7)
12-15  in 2005, 16-11 in 2004, 7-20  in 2003

MERRILLVILLE  -  The Pirates slowed dramatically down the stretch.  From a 17-2 start, Merrillville lost five of the final eight.  Realistically, this is where they are.  The run to win the DAC was impressive, but it was a hot streak and is clearly over.  The Pirates did get a 5-3 win over Andrean and a 3-0 win on Noll (17-10) in the final week.  Adam Farag (9-1) allowed the 59ers just six hits and Caleb Douglas (6-1) gave Noll only two hits.

But this team still isn't scoring runs.  Merrillville outscored the opposition 138-87 which isn't that good.  Remember, good high school teams average 7-10 runs a game.  You can't win seven playoff games by 3-2 scores.  Senior Bo McClendon (.320, 3 HRs, 29 stolen bases) has been the offensive catalyst, but this team has had to work too hard to score.  They need a hot streak from Darryl Evans and some defensive improvement.  The Pirates made eight errors in two games at Lafayette and two more Friday in a season ending 6-1 home loss to Munster.

The Pirates have not played quite the schedule that Chesterton and Valparaiso played, although they did beat Andrean (23-6), Boone Grove (25-3) and Jefferson (20-9).  The Pirates play too many LAC Blue teams like Morton, Gavit and Hammond.  Merrillville has gotten too large a school and the 'Blue' schools have gotten too small.  Those wins are too easy.  The Pirates have some good losses, to Griffith (22-7), CP (20-8) and West Lafayette (23-4), but you get back to 138 runs scored in 28 games, an average of 4.8 per game, which is as weak as the Chicago Cubs.

Merrillville must win three games in four days to take the sectional title at Valparaiso and they did not play well enough in May (a 7-5 record) to suggest that will happen.
A senior-dominated team certainly has a chance, but they must beware of a sectional semifinal game against Chesterton, a team which has been strong in the last two weeks.

 

7.) 4A Valparaiso (15-12)
8-21 in 2005, 16-13 in 2004, 25-5 in 2003, 27-5 in 2002

VALPARAISO  -  The final week was not kind to Valpo, including a 16-11 loss to Lake Central and a 6-3 loss at Highland.  It was not easy being green, especially if you were a pitcher.  LC and Highland both posted 13 hits and Highland beat Chooch Sizemore (6-4), Valpo's top pitcher.

Momentum doesn't really exist in baseball, because you change pitchers every game.  But you're going to need a search party to find reasons to assume that a team that entered the playoffs with two blowout losses could handle a team that rolls into the sectional with an eight-game win streak.

Still, the Vikings did get a quarterfinal bye in the state tournament, they host the sectional and they do hold a 2-0 record against sectional semifinal foe Crown Point (18-10).  You can actually make an argument for Valpo reaching the state finals.  They have a durable No. 1 pitcher and an experienced No. 2 in Clint Krysa.  Valpo has wins over Elkhart Memorial (23-5), LaPorte (23-6), Merrillville (20-7) and two wins over Crown Point (20-8).  Valpo lost double-headers to 1A No. 1 Lafayette Catholic (22-5) and 4A No. 12 Kokomo (20-7).  They will not see anymore better than the teams they've already faced until they get to Indianapolis.  But they've lost twice to Chesterton (15-12) and they also have losses to Munster (19-10) and Highland (13-14), two teams that are clearly a notch down from the teams that Valpo has beaten.  They've had one of the more unexplainable seasons in NW Indiana.

 

8.) 2A Bishop Noll (17-11)
2005 (12-19), 2004 (21-11), 2003 (16-10)

HAMMOND  -  The Warriors made their season with a four game sweep, beating Gavit 10-0, Clark 5-3, Munster 9-5 and Andrean 17-5 in the 16-team LAC tournament.   Some have questioned why Noll was in this poll all year and those questions have clearly been answered.  Noll beat Morton 4-2 and lost to Merrillville 3-0 in the final week, but ace RHP Danny Faulkner (4-2, 2 saves) pitched briefly in both games striking out six in five innings.  He's ready.  But Noll must win three times to take the Wheeler Sectional, so they will need to hit better than they did in a 3-0 season-ending loss to Merrillville.

Noll gets as much credit as you can give anybody during the regular season, because the outlook was bleak after an 18-14 four error April home loss to Michigan City.  But the Warriors defeated Andrean three times in 2005 and, even though they were 0-2 against Griffith, 0-2 against Highland and 0-2 against Munster, why should they care?  Noll plays 3A and 4A teams all year.  They're SUPPOSED to lose to them.  The Warriors played 27 Class 3A and 4A schools plus 1A Marquette.  Coach Dave Griffin gets credit for being the top schedule-maker.  He could easily sign up all the other 2A teams in NW Indiana but you see none of them on the schedule.  No one is better prepared competition-wise for the state tourney than Noll is.

That's the good news.  Here's the problem.  Noll must open against the host team Wheeler (15-8) and they can't overlook them in anticipation of a sectional title match with 2A No. 1 Boone Grove (25-3).  Wheeler has very quietly had a very good season and, on their home field, they could barbecue a sleeping Noll squad, especially if Danny Faulkner doesn't pitch.  Noll needs Faulkner against both Wheeler and Boone and it will be hard to make that happen, because the semifinals and finals (June 1-2) will be played on back-to-back days at Wheeler.  Noll doesn't score that many runs (196 in 28 games, 7.0 per game) and they may need to start this week.

Realistically, here is the sectional and regional favorite.  They only need three wins to get to the semistate and they will not see anyone of the caliber of Andrean, who they have already beaten three times.

 

9.) 2A Boone Grove (25-3)
24-7 in 2005, 17-12 in 2004, 21-7 in 2003

PORTER TOWNSHIP  -  Boone Grove finished up a triumphant regular season with a 1-0 win over Matt Kobli and Whiting (18-11) and a three-game sweep of the Porter County Conference (PCC) tournament and a 4-1 shut down of Hobart.  Boone has won five PCC titles in a row (The tournament decides the champ in the PCC) and the Wolves were big and bad outside the league.

Boone Grove was 6-1 against Class 4A teams (the PCC is a 1A and 2A league) and 7-0 against the bigger Lake Athletic Conference.  You still hear how Boone would lose by 10 runs to good LAC teams, but Lake County is an island in its mentality.  The record shows that Boone's been whipping LAC teams since gas was $1.25 a gallon.  The truth is that Boone would have won the LAC Blue Division this year and no one should be overlooking them.

Boone's only losses are excusable.  Boone lost 3-0 to DAC champ Merrillville (21-7), 7-2 to PCC regular season champion Washington Township and 4-2 to Hebron in what has always been the most intense rivalry in the northern half of the state. 

The bad news for Boone is that they must win three times in five days just to win the sectional and they must play a 7:30 Thursday night game and come back to win a 4:30 game Friday. (I don't understand that schedule.)  Boone has plenty of pitching but they could be worn out before they meet Noll in the Friday (June 2) championship game.  The Boone hitters might be worn out after rolling up 28 runs on Lake Station in the sectional opener.  What's up with that?

That's why I'd make Bishop Noll, which got a bye, a slight favorite over Boone in the 2A Wheeler championship contest.  The winner of the Wheeler sectional is the favorite to go to the state finals.

 

10.) 4A Munster (19-10)
19-14 in 2005, 23-6 in 2004, 20-10  in 2003

MUNSTER  -  The Mustangs charged down the stretch, winning three of four games in the LAC tourney and beating Merrillville (21-7) in the final week.  Overall, Munster won 8-of-10 down the stretch and they can easily post their 20th win against West Side in the playoff opener.  Munster almost always ends up with a record of about 20-10, and does not have any losses to teams that are not solid.  The Mustangs can handle the freakish playoff format, with the help of a first round bye, because Jake Ernd (6-0), Tim Lukoshus and Chris Winterhaler are capable of starting against the teams they'd see.

Munster was 0-2 against Andrean and 1-2 against Griffith.  Two of the losses, Terre Haute South and TF South are excusable as is the 15-5 loss to 2A No. 1 Boone Grove.  Munster might not want to admit it, because they didn't play their regulars against the Wolves, but Boone would probably beat Munster's regulars this year.  TF South (14-14) didn't have a good year but TF South (20-7) did.

Winterhaler pitched the earlier 5-4 loss to Lake Central, but Ernd would probably go this time.  Look out for this team.  The Mustangs aren't the offensive force they usually are, but they play a very tough schedule and Munster is the defending sectional champion.  They would host the regional title game.  This is still a horse to bet on.

 

On the outside looking in ...

 

11.) 4A Chesterton (15-12)
12-12 in 2005, 19-9 in 2004, 8-20 in 2003

CHESTERTON  -   You've been reading here how this team has untapped potential.  In the last two weeks, they've started tapping.  Down the stretch, the Trojans started rolling like their name was Andretti, winning six of seven, with the only loss being a narrow 5-3 defeat at Carmel.  Chesterton and tall RHP Sean Green blanked Lake Central 1-0.  Green fanned 10 as the Trojans turned back Munster 4-3 in eight innings.  Danny Frye struck out 11 in a 4-0 shutout of South Dearborn and lefty ace John Lambert struck out eight in three innings of a 3-0 shutout of Gavit.  The Trojans were 6-10 and in the toilet, but right now, they are a serious threat at the 4A Valparaiso sectional.

Chesterton beat Griffith (22-7) by a 6-1 score and, while you never know about Saturday results because of who might not be playing, there is no questioning the Trojans schedule.  Somebody's got to beat tall left-hander John Lambert or tall right-handed Sean Green and nobody's beat them recently.

If there is a surprise regional qualifier, here it is.  And I like them to beat Merrillville in the sectional semifinals.

 

12.) 3A Clark (22-5)
22-7 in 2005, 24-5 in 2004, 21-8 in 2003, 20-5 in 2002

HAMMOND  -  Clark got bombed at LaPorte 14-2, and they did not play Crown Point (20-8), as many schedules said they would. The game apparently was canceled at the start of the season.  That's not good.  Clark loses two of their last three and only one is against a big-time foe.  The Pioneers' 5-3 loss to Bishop Noll (17-11) isn't embarrassing, but Noll is a team Clark should beat if they expect to advance in 3A.

The Pioneers numbers are mind-blowing.  Junior Mike Carpen (45-79, .570, 5 HRs, 32 stolen bases), twin Al Carpen (36-81 .444, 7 HRs, 59 RBIs) and younger brother Jon Carpen (34-65, .523, 4 HRs, 23 RBIs) are riding sensational seasons.  I know I have questioned the Clark schedule all season and I still do.  I do not expect them to survive sectional play.  But the Carpen family is setting school records that will not be broken in our lifetime.

I don't think I have to tell you that nobody's going to drive in 59 runs in a 26-game season again anytime soon.  But they have to beat Griffith and that means the pitching must shut down a very talented, battle-tested batting order.  It has to be trouble-some that Pioneer pitching gave up 14 runs to LaPorte (May 23) and 11 more to Morton (May 19) in the final 10 days.  Throw in five errors against Morton and six more at LaPorte and this team probably isn't ready for a long run.  But one game is one game and they did beat Griffith last year.  What if the LaPorte game did them a lot of good?