NW Indiana 2004-05 Girls Basketball Poll: "The Stretch Run"

2004-2005 Girls Basketball Analysis:

"The Stretch Run"

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

(12-28-2004)

CROWN POINT, IN - (12-28-2004) When the clock ticks over into 2005, there will be only 4 ½ week left in the girls basketball season and, for most, 6 ½ weeks before softball, tennis and track starts.

During the football season, everyone in Lake County in all five classes from 1A Whiting to 5A Merrillville was touted as a state finalist before Andrean (the only team to survive regional play) won just the sixth state title for the six county area (Lake, Porter, LaPorte, Jasper, Newton, Starke) we call NW Indiana in 20 years. Obviously, locals look at local teams with rose-colored glasses and they can be forgiven for that. The trick is to unemotionally evaluate local teams versus teams they would see in playoff competition.

Truthfully, most prep teams do not have the state finals as their goal. They are happy to win more than they lose, beat a rival, win the sectional, send a kid to college and save the coach's job. Most players want credit for rolling up the score on weak sisters. It's hard to win a state title so they want credit for falling short. Ego defeats most youth teams because they start thinking they're better than they are.

What is written here assumes that everyone has the state finals as their No. 1 goal, which, of course, is the way it should be in class sports. Many coaches will call it a great year no matter what they do and much local media, which makes money off them, will agree. Greatness is in the eye of the beholder. Local sports has more cheerleaders than reporters.

If you accept the fact that ALL players try hard, ALL players who stay with the sport are doing something noble, and that ALL players want to win for various reasons, we then can get on to which teams can go for the gold. It's nice to dominate a weak league or win a lot of games in a row but, if you don't get to the state finals, you are not great. You are Kobe Bryant scoring 42 points on Christmas day while Shaq's team wins the game. As Dale Ernhardt would say, a second place finisher is just the No. 1 loser.

There has not been a girls state champion from NW Indiana in 11 years (LC -1994) but it is remotely possible for there to be one in 2005. The best chance would appear to be in Class 4A, where four of the state's top-20 teams are in Lake and Porter County.

The poorest chance for a state finalist is in Class 3A where South Bend St. Joseph's, one of the most talented girls teams in the history of the state tournament, blocks everyone's path at the regional level. Even if they are upset, Bishop Luers is talent laden and Brebuef Jesuit is the defending state champ and still power-packed.

Below is a realistic evaluation of NW Indiana's chances in 2005. It will be, as this has been, a little blunt and, if you are sensitive, go back to buying stuff on e-bay. If you are listed here, it is a good sign. Because if you aren't, you have about as much a chance of winning the state title as Donald Rumsfeld does of selling a book on war strategy.

VALPARAISO - They have quality guards in Aimee Mishler (13.1 – 9 games) and an inside-outside player in 6-foot Alisha Polite. They need more scoring from senior Jen Smith as they do not have a true post player on offense. Smith averaged 13.6 per game last year.

I like 5-10 Hannah Werner as a hard-working forward. WT won the Mid-winter Classic but I don't think coach Dustin Nelson has the tradition-rich PCC tournament as an ultimate goal and these girls were sectional and regional champs two years ago so they won't party all night long if they repeat.

I like the balance of this team with as many as four scoring threats. They can't press a really good guard but the Senators can outscore most teams and they have playoff experience, albeit two years removed.

They have some good combination defenses for the one-girl scoring teams they will see, starting with Morgan Township.

That's the key to winning in the girls state tournament where a lot of teams are based on one elite player. The Senators are blessed because they do not depend on any one player.

NEGATIVES: This is not a good rebounding team. If they run up against a really good 'glass' team, they'd better shoot well. There's going to have to be a sense of urgency for Washington Township. This team came back together when three players, including Polite, the PCC's volleyball MVP, returned to basketball after a one-year sabbatical. Beyond the regional level, you run into teams that have been playing together all their lives gearing for the biggest games of their lives.

With three of the key players not yet seniors, do the Senators feel that way about February of 2005? I don't know.

TARGET TEAM: Fort Wayne Canterbury, ranked No. 1 in December, returned all-stater Megan King (28 ppg.) off a defending sectional and regional championship team that was 17-9 last year. Canterbury has won 4 of the last 5 sectional 51 championships.

King, a 5-9 guard who was averaging 25 ppg. after 10 games, is described as a once in a generation player who is hard to stop. WT will not have seen anyone like her which is why the planning must begin now. Canterbury is a small team physically and it will come down to how well they defense one player.

No. 3 Clinton Prairie, which returns all 5 starters from a sectional championship team, was 7-1 after 8 games and they have 5-9 senior Janette Burgin (21.6 ppg. - 9 games). CP could easily meet WT at the semistate. Two-time defending state champ Tri-Central with state finals MVP point guard Meranda Burnett, a Lauren Bechtold-type player, could also be at the semistate but Tri-Central was only 6-3 after nine games and they had already lost 69-38 to Clinton Prairie. WT's 2-2 start can be explained. 69-38 cannot. Something's wrong there.

All good teams have to have the ability to shut down any one scorer. If WT can do that, they can reach the finals.

OTHERS (0) - If WT is upset at the sectional level by Morgan Township, then no one from this area will reach the finals. Morgan does not have the size or experience to survive the regional. There's good talent in 1A and some tough private schools. If we can't get a 'Senator' down to Indianapolis, we just won't be represented in 1A.

PORTER TOWNSHIP - Boone is in very much the same shape as Washington Township except that some of their girls didn't take last year's playoffs off voluntarily. They were eliminated by Wheeler, a team that got massacred by state champ Rochester. Truthfully, Boone would not have beaten Rochester either.

Boone is at a peak now, though with 5-6 senior guard Karissa Walter, 5-10 wing Becky Keller and six other experienced contributors. 5-10 posts Kara Kessler and Lani Marsh are crucial because they allow 5-10 Danielle Jacobs and the 5-10 Keller to be perimeter players.

Guards Sara Martinovich and Megan Dewell are also key because they will be used as defensive stoppers against perimeter scoring machines that Boone will see.

The Wolves are a fast breaking bunch with Walter (17.9 ppg, 7 apg, 7 spg), who cannot be intimidated. Boone should never, ever back off their full court or half court press and they seem to know that now.

No team is more experienced. Six of the top 8 were in uniform two years ago when Boone lost by 20 to Shenandoah at the Warsaw Semistate. Soph guard Cortney Flanigan is another key. She will be needed to fill in when Walter fouls out of a key game. Boone did not have a true backup point guard two years ago.

Boone also now has a workable delay game. You cannot win without a 'victory' offense, a stall that kills time and puts your point guard on the foul line in the final moments of a close game. That game is a motivating tool. Boone was not good enough on that day in 2003. As we start 2005, they are good enough and it's now or never.

NEGATIVES: Boone does not have the outside shooting they need. Becky Keller is their only threat from 15-20 feet out. Karissa Walter is foul prone and the Wolves look to her too much in key situations.

Boone has a confidence problem. They don't attack people defensively the way they should. Teams are afraid of their athletic ability but Boone makes games close that don't have to be because they don't get after the other team from the opening tip. Boone does not have a big fan following. I don't know why. They just don't.

Boone also has not played a schedule that would prepare them for the regional or semistate. All of their opponents are 1A or 2A except for Knox, Crown Point, Calumet and Kankakee Valley. That's one of the reasons that Boone is undefeated. Look at 2A North Judson's schedule. Seven 3A schools. Look at state history. Very few undefeated teams win state titles. Very few.

WINAMAC - The Winamac Warriors were 19-3 last year, losing to 2A state champ Rochester. Now they are ranked No. 1 and, unless they lose to North Judson in on Jan. 19, they will finish the season at No. 1 in the polls.

Led by senior 5-6 twin sisters Julie and Jennifer Chumley, Winamac has scored 60 or more points eight times. They have size up front with 5-10 Whitney Fritz and 5-10 Cara Crawford, who had back-to-back 18-point games against 3A Tippecanoe Valley and 1A West Central. This team presses full court and starts four seniors just like Boone. Unlike Boone, Winamac has a huge fan following. The Winamac-Boone game would be at North Judson, which is much closer to Winamac than it is to Boone. Winamac is a classic Indiana basketball town. The boys' team won its first sectional title in 1928. Veteran coach Jim Swaney has 301 wins and 100 losses in 19 years. He knows what has to be done.

No Winamac team has ever reached the state finals and it would be one of the biggest events in the history of the 190-year-old town. They may see Boone as standing in the way of their destiny.

Truthfully, Winamac is also a poor outside shooting team and their schedule is worse than Boone's. There is a chance that North Judson (8-2) could defeat Winamac at the sectional level. Boone reportedly met Winamac in summer AAU ball and defeated them. Both sides must recall that.

Boone could see Harding or Taylor at the semistate but Taylor (10-1) only beat Bishop Noll by 9 in December. Harding plays 5 4A schools in the Summit Athletic Conference (SAC) and they have five returning starters from last year including 6-2 sophomore Danielle Ben-Tsvulum. Harding will play Snider (6-2) or Luers (7-1) in the finals of the SAC tournament on Dec. 30. Harding's 56-54 victory over 4A Snider on Dec. 4 is similar to Boone's OT win over 4A Crown Point.

But, if they survive Winamac, I like Boone playing in Plymouth against Harding and especially against Taylor.

OTHERS (0) - Class 2A teams, with the notable exception of Bishop Noll, are allergic to traveling and playing competition outside this area. How can Rochester and Winamac have these top-ranked teams just a half hour away and nobody in NW Indiana plays them??

You can't get to the state finals by dominating the Lake Athletic Conference or the Porter County Conference. That road goes nowhere. But when teams Like North Judson (and Noll) are playing 'up' (facing bigger schools during the regular season) everybody else better get in step or get left out.

SOUTH BEND - There is not one player on a 3A school in Lake County (there are no 3As in Porter County) who would start for South Bend St. Joseph's (10-0). Not one.

The Indians returned all five starters from a team that was 17-9 last year. St. Joe was in the state finals two years ago.

No one in this half of the state has their players and no one plays their schedule.

5-10 forward Aimee Litka is signed to play at Valparaiso while 5-7 junior lead guard Melissa Lechlitner is signed to play at Notre Dame. Sophomore guard Sydney Smallbone is a long range shooter and 6-4 soph center Kristen Dockery is a high Division I prospect . 5-8 Katie St. Clair will play at a Div. III or Div. II school. There are two other 6-foot girls on the bench.

Because they knew they were good, St. Joe, which is now in the Northern Indiana Conference (NIC) also scheduled 11 Class 4A schools, six of which they have already defeated. St. Joe plays at East Chicago on Jan. 8 and at Gary West on Jan. 22.

St. Joe deserves to win the 3A state title because they have played a schedule that most schools are unable to play or afraid to play. Bishop Luers (7-1) could stop St. Joe at the semistate and Brebuef Jesuit could stop them at Conseco.

Andrean might be the best 3A team in Lake County and St. Joe beat Andrean 87-40. That's the gap that has to be made up in 4 ½ weeks. None of the teams in NW Indiana are going to come anywhere near Bishop Luers, St. Joseph's or Brebuef in the next two years but only Andrean is probably aware of that fact.

EAST CHICAGO - All-state 5-10 guard Dee Dee Jernigan (17.6 ppg.) gives the Cardinals the offensive force they need in close games. 5-10 forward Kelly Watts is a skilled player as well, a good mid-range shooter and rebounder.

5-5 Kandi Rogers can play the point and 5-9 Lisa Upshaw hit three three-point goals in the 66-46 win over Chicago's Crane Tech and she hit three more in the 72-58 win over Chicago's John Hope high. EC has scoring options other than Jernigan and they are fast enough to run with most teams.

The EC full court press has fast people, short and tall. They can dominate anyone without an elite lead guard.

The Cardinals have attempted to face the top foes including this week's entry in the Hall-of-Fame Tournament. In a two day span, EC will take on Gary West Side (5-0) on Jan. 6 and St. Joseph's (10-0) on Jan. 8. Win or lose, they're getting ready.

EC has scheduled almost every team they could possibly see in the 4A playoffs before Indianapolis except South Bend Washington (12-0) and Valparaiso (11-1). EC has been kicked out of the state tournament rudely at the sectional level by Gary West Side in 2003 and 2004. That has to be very aggravating. And motivating.

NEGATIVES: EC does not have a true post player and several teams in their path (especially Valparaiso) do. Rebounding will be a problem in the post-season.

The Cardinals have only one player who can create her own shot in Jernigan and if she fouls out, they probably are done.

EC may not believe they can beat Gary West Side and Valparaiso, two schools whose reputation precedes them.

This is not a hard choice. EC has West Side to thank for an early elimination two years in a row. How favorably they match up against anybody else is irrelevant unless they can break West Side's press and out-rebound them.

West Side has five senior starters while EC's best players (Jernigan and Watts) are juniors.

Down the line, EC's full court defense and speed matches them very favorably against Valparaiso and they are probably quick enough to deal with the speed of undefeated South Bend Washington (11-0).

Snider, Huntington North and Kokomo may wait at the semistate but Jernigan won't see any defense she has not already seen.

But Gary West Side is the mental hurdle that EC must cross or all the other matchup talk is just that. The Cardinals can't scare them and they can't outrun them. Could be, they just can't beat them.

GARY - This team only played five games before Christmas but I still believe they are strong. The full court press of West Side is intimidating and it wipes out 75% of their opponents.

6-foot forwards Ashley Cheairs and Michelle Hamblin (6.4 ppg.) are the basis of the squad in front of 5-6 senior guards Isabelle Rhenwick (10.6 ppg.) and Shanee Butler. West Side can go 12 deep including 6-foot center Erica Simpson.

5-8 guard Ashley Gates (10.2 ppg.) has been a scoring surprise through five games but Butler (5.5 ppg.), a transfer from now-closed Horace Mann, has not been scoring.

West Side smoked out Munster 51-40 at Munster and they low-bridged Highland 50-35 at Highland. The pressure defense is in place. But a 31-29 win at Hobart and a 49-48 win at Riley are causes for concern.

But West Side had not played a home game as of Xmas day. Once they get to playing and get to playing at home, the offense should come.

NEGATIVES - This is not a good shooting team. West Side was 16 of 50 against Riley after an 0-for-14 first quarter.

The Cougars shot just 59% through four games at the foul line and that's not good enough. The Cougars, with seven seniors and three consecutive sectional titles, honestly don't have that many negatives. They will not get many tough tests late in January except for McCutcehon (3-6), on Feb. 4, and McCutcheon isn't what they have been in past years.

VALPARAISO - Valpo eliminated Gary West Side last year and the 55-37 score was embarrassing. The same way East Chicago is brick walled by West Side...West Side has been denied a shot at the state finals the last two years by Valparaiso.

West Side's press has been ineffective against Valpo and they cannot beat the Vikings unless they can steal the ball or pick up the pace of the game. The regional is on Valparaiso's home floor and the Vikings, understandably play well there. West Side seems to have trouble shooting at Valpo but they have trouble shooting in most gyms.

There is no reason to believe that West Side would beat Valpo in 2005 except that Valpo has an all-new backcourt that West Side might intimidate.

VALPARAISO - The defending sectional and regional champion has replaced last year's backcourt and has not missed a beat.

Valpo returned 3 starters off a 23-3 team and wins over Crown Point 46-36 and Merrillville 49-38 have already put the Vikings on track to regain the DAC championship they lost to Merrillville last season.

Junior guard Erica Humes (11.3 ppg.) is the key to the team and she must break the full court pressure that anyone who hopes to beat Valpo must throw at them. Humes, a 6-1 sophomore, has flaws but she doesn't have to be great until February.

Center Lindsey Humes is back after a knee injury and she allows 6-3 all-stater Cassie Kerns (16.5 ppg.) to play forward, her natural position.

Sophomore Lindsey Prow is a fine addition as a role player at guard and a future star. Valparaiso has little depth but they have not allowed anyone to score more than 40 points in any game and when the game at CP (10-2) was tied 26-26, Valpo scored 10 in a row and won easily.

The VHS girls are 106 of 151 (70.2%) from the foul line and that's plenty good enough. No one has picked up the pace on Valpo for more than a quarter.

With the sectional at nearby Chesterton and the regional at home, Valpo has to be confident they can get through the first two rounds of the state tournament again.

NEGATIVES: Lack of depth. If either Erica Humes or Cassie Kerns fouls out, Valpo is in major trouble against a good team.

Valpo plays the other DAC teams too much. The Vikings may need to beat Crown Point three times and it becomes more difficult each time. Valpo doesn't have a good fan following for reasons I can't explain. The Vikings gave up 20 points to one player, Chesterton's Kelly Pellar in a quarter in December and that can't ever happen. I suspect that some of Valpo's new players have a little confidence problem.

But this team is 34-4 in 2 years. Their coach has won 400 games and they have a guard, forward and center all standing 6-feet or taller. They don't have a lot of negatives.

SOUTH BEND – Washington is a powerful team that has scored 70 or more points six times. They defeated slowdown Plymouth 38-35, a team that beat Valpo 29-22.

The Panthers backcourt of all-South Bend stars Jere Taylor and Teisha Newsome could give Valpo major trouble. Few teams match up with Valpo but 6-0 Ashley Varner and 6-2 Katie Boocher are big enough.

Of all the teams that Valpo could see before the state finals, Washington is best built to beat them. Other than EC, West Side, Washington and Valpo, all the other top-10 teams are in the southern half of the state bracket.

CROWN POINT – Top guard Cassie Pruzin (13.2 ppg.) can get through most pressing defenses and backcourt partner Kaitlyn Sertich (10.7 ppg.) is a quick and fast all-court player.

CP has a six pack of full court pressing defenses which wipe out 75% of the teams they'll see. The Lady Bulldogs can go 10 players deep with 6-foot sophomore centers Anjellica Respond and Courtney Perry improving up front.

5-10 Jill Weiand is a three-year starter and 5-8 forward Hannah Plumley has started for two seasons. Kaitlin Sautter and Jackie Clements add depth at forward while Stephanie Poulos and Michele Lipton add strength at guard.

CP tries to wear you down by keeping the pace up and they have won nine games by 10 points or more. Pruzin and Sertich (a combined 121 steals after 12 games) are very disruptive to the offense and CP's changing defenses are very frustrating to play against as 12 opponent's 312 turnovers (26.0 per game) shows.

Pruzin (13.3 ppg, 6.3 steals, 3.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists) is the ultimate closer, shooting 86.8% (46 of 53) from the foul line and CP has out-rebounded foes on the average 33 to 23. No player has scored 20 points on CP all season.

NEGATIVES: Outside shooting is nonexistent at times. The team was 33 of 127 (26.0%) from three-point range after 12 games. Like EC and Boone, the team waits for the top scorer to do something in key spots. Some of the CP players are afraid to shoot the ball in close games. CP has the depth and defensive schemes for sectional and regional play but they lack emotion at times and that leaves them open to an upset prior to a marquee matchup.

Valparaiso has eliminated Crown Point in each of the past three seasons at the sectional level so there's no point in CP focusing on anyone else. The size of Valpo has been too much for the forwards of CP but it's more than that. CP's shooters can't handle the pressure of the big game against the big team. The shots are there for CP to beat Valpo.

They just can't hit them. I suspect the complicated defenses CP plays would cause major problems for East Chicago, South Bend Washington or Gary West Side because none of those teams has seen CP in this decade. If CP got past Valparaiso, it is not at all unlikely they'd get to the finals as they did in 1997 when they finally beat Lake Central and Kelly Komara in the sectional title game.

But it's all irrelevant unless CP figures a way to beat Valpo when it counts. And though the meetings are usually close, there's little indication right now that CP can get that done.

OTHERS (0) - Local teams will stop getting overhyped the day ESPN discovers journalism but no team from what is now the Lake Athletic Conference has ever reached the state finals, largely because the league dumbs you down. If you are 4A or 3A, you simply can't play 3A and 2A foes all year and then win the 3A or 4A state tournament. It's like running a marathon uphill. Six of the DAC teams are funnelled into one sectional which means they have to beat CP and Valpo or both.

Jessica Simpson will be the Perry Como of the 21^st century before somebody other than the big 4 (EC, West Side, CP and Valpo) wins a girls state title.

2004-2005 Girls Basketball Analysis:

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

Copyright © 2004 USA-365.com and Meyer Multimedia Services, a division of Meyer Broadcasting Corp. All rights reserved. Revised: December 28, 2004 .

Copyright © 2004 USA-365.com and Meyer Multimedia Services, a division of Meyer Broadcasting Corp. All rights reserved.
Revised: December 28, 2004 .