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2005-2006 Girls BasketballTop-10 Poll, Week-7A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith(12-22-2005) |
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2005-2006 Girls BasketballTop-10 Poll, Week-7A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith(12-22-2005) |
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VALPARAISO, IN -
(12-23-2005)
Most teams get a break over the holidays, a span of 7-10 days off without a
game. As impractical as it may be from a competitive standpoint, you wish
everybody would just get away from the game for a short period of time.
With the season starting in early November and ending in February, especially in years (like this one) of unusually bad weather, a mid-season break can add a lot. It will be interesting to see what happens to a team like Lowell, which basically uses just six players. The original schedule had a two-week layoff between Dec. 17 and Jan. 3, but the success of the Red Devil football team pushed a Nov. 26 game back to Dec. 21.
The Devils now do not have the full 'Peace on Earth' hiatus from the hardwood, although they still get 10 days. With the Duneland Conference double-round robin schedule, the DAC now has regular league games between Christmas and New Year's Day, something else coaches, players and athletic directors would probably all rather avoid. No other league does that, but with 14 league games, you need that week.
I don't know if anyone has ever analyzed which type of schedule is better. The DAC (and now LAC) schedule, which has some teams playing as many as 13 games before New Year's day, OR the small school Porter County Conference (PCC) schedule which plays only 9-10 games before the end of the year and loads up with tournaments and mid-week matchups in the last six weeks.
In the last 10 years, PCC teams have gone deeper (1998 Morgan Township, 2003 Boone Grove, 2002 Hebron, 2005 South Central) in the state tournament, as a group, than any other league. Gary schools have a very small league (4 teams) so they are basically independents. Even though the 16-team LAC is the only NW Indiana league that is guaranteed a regional team every year, no LAC team has ever advanced beyond the semistate since the league was formed.
The small school success runs could just be a product of lack of equal quality depth at the 1A and 2A levels, but you can also make the argument that late season tournaments boost a team, since the `98 Morgan, 2003 Boone and 2002 Hebron teams won the eight-team PCC championship playoffs in late January and they rolled to sectional and regional titles.
The
boys season has just begun but the girls basketball season will be two-thirds
over after New Year's Day. Here is one man's odds of the 10 best teams
(not the 10 teams with the best records) making the state finals. Do not
confuse a team's chances of reaching the state finals with their position in
this poll. As you will see, those two distinctly different things.
And don't get too upset at the odds. At the start of the recently
concluded state football tournament, Lowell was about 1,000-to-1 to win the 4A
state championship. How'd that work out for them?
1.) 4A Valparaiso (7-3)
21-2 (2005), 23-3 (2004), 16-8 (2003)
VALPARAISO - Valpo bounced back from a loss to Crown Point and totally dominated (55-37) a LaPorte team that nearly beat Merrillville (34-31) and Crown Point (43-39). Valpo has won 51 of their last 59 games. Doesn't matter? Valpo has blown out the leaders in the LAC, Munster (10-3) and Highland (9-5), as well as the Northern Lakes Conference leader Plymouth (8-2) by 10 points or more. Doesn't matter? The Vikings' only losses are to 4A No. 1 Carmel (10-0), 4A No. 6 Merrillville (9-0) and Crown Point (8-4).
Valpo has two 5-11 guards, one a D-1 player in Erica Humes, who scored 20 points with four steals against LaPorte. Guards win games, which is why, despite the 52-47 Valpo loss at Merrillville in November, that Valpo is slightly better ands will eventually prove it. This team is the antithesis of speed teams East Chicago, Gary West Side and South Bend Washington. Odds on them reaching the final are about 20-1 because they lack the front court size and strength of past years. But Valpo does play a perfect playoff style. In the meantime nobody would put money on their team against Valpo on a neutral site. Nobody.
2.) 4A Merrillville (9-0)
12-10 (2005), 18-3 (2004), 15-8 (2003)
MERRILLVILLE - The Pirates laid the smack down on Lake Central 66-47 Saturday night (12-17-2005) warming up for a three-game stretch that will show exactly where they are. Matches with Munster (10-3), Crown Point (8-4) and Valparaiso (7-3) in a two-week span will show the Pirates as a contender or pretender. There is great power up front with 6-3 Brittney Moore and 6-2 Sharon Houston, but this is still largely a new team and that has shown at times. The Pirates have won three games by five points or less but the final eight games on the schedule are not that tough. If they go 12-0, they will most likely go 20-0. But in the post-season, this team is very young in the backcourt and low on playoff experience. Three sectional opponents (CP, Chesterton and Valpo) all play a style that would bother Merrillville. I like them against East Chicago and Gary West Side, but I think they are almost 50-1 to reach the state finals.
3.) 4A East Chicago (6-3)
21-4 (2005), 17-5 (2004), 21-1 (2003)
EAST
CHICAGO - The folks who make the other NW Indiana polls seem unable or
unwilling to look at the teams East Chicago has played. EC has lost to
John Hope high school of Chicago 48-44. Hope is 12-0 and ranked No. 1 in
Class A, the smallest of two classes in Illinois. EC has defeated Carl Sandburg
high of Orland Park, Illinois 64-50. Sandburg is 7-4 and rated 21st in the
Chicagoland area. EC has lost 46-44 to Chicago's Whitney Young high
school. Young is 9-0 and No. 4 in the Chicago area, according to the
Sun-Times.
That puts EC's record in an entirely different light. Strength of schedule
is everything. When you talk about who will do well in the state
tournament, it's not about who you beat. It's about who you have played.
You must play tougher teams during the regular season than you will see in the
state tournament. EC has done that.
The Cardinals still have St. Joseph's (9-0), Gary West Side (5-2), North Central (9-1), Warsaw (7-3), Munster (10-3), Highland (9-5) and south suburban Chicago power Marian Catholic (9-2). EC's record isn't going to look very good at the end of the year. This won't be a 20-win season. They'll still be ranked behind South Central in the Post-Tribune. But the Cardinals can still end up playing South Bend Washington in the regional championship game and they can win it. They have NW Indiana's best player in Dee Dee Jernigan and are senior-dominated. It's now or never. Because of the talent they have and the schedule they play, I've got East Chicago at 15-1 to make the state finals.
4.) 4A Gary West Side (6-2)
23-5 (2005), 22-3 (2004), 20-4 (2003)
GARY - West Side put a serious whipping on Munster 66-50 in a bit of a surprise last week. The game was sandwiched between two Munster games with arch-rival Highland and sometimes those two schools forget who the real enemy is. The Side still has the depth to slap around any team in NW Indiana if they get an early lead. Guard Mary Bell stood out with 14 points, three steals and four assists against Munster while 6-foot, D-1 player Erica Simpson grabbed 27 points and 15 rebounds as the Cougars out rebounded Munster 33-19 and stole the ball 12 times. That indicates that there is still a gap between Gary West Side, East Chicago and the other four teams in 4A sectional one.
West Side outran fading South Bend Riley 67-57 Saturday and the 'Side' could not be in a better place. Not undefeated and not hyped or highly-publicized, but still building. Judgment day is Jan. 5 against East Chicago (actually the true Judgment day is Jan. 21 against South Bend St. Joseph's) but actually, West Side always seems to have a good attitude about the regular season. It means nothing to them. Absolutely nothing. The playoff-tested Cougars are not a good shooting team, which leaves them at about 20-1 to reach the state finals again.
5.) 4A Munster (10-3)
17-6 (2005), 6-15 (2004), 6-18 (2003)
MUNSTER - Munster spanked Highland twice, but took a road whipping from Gary West Side 66-50 as a nice reality check. 5-10 Jackie Yerga collected 23 points and 10 rebounds against the 'Side' but the Lady Ponies horsed around for 22 turnovers. Munster became the first school to win the Lake Athletic Conference (LAC) tournaments on the boys and girls side the same year. It is discouraging that Munster appeared slow against West Side, but the reality is that the game slows down in the state tournament and Munster could make up the 16-point margin of defeat come February.
If I was Munster, I would consider a four-corner or delay offense against West Side. Munster likes to pick up the pace and that plays right into West Side's hands. If you can't beat a team at their game, try a game they don't like. There is still time to improve, but Munster has been paddled by up-tempo West Side AND by down-tempo Valparaiso. Except for one game against Griffith, I don't know if Munster has played near their best game yet. The Mustangs are 50-to-1 to reach the 4A state finals.
6.) 4A Crown Point (8-4)
17-6 (2005), 14-8 (2004), 12-9 (2003)
CROWN POINT - The Lady Bulldogs played five games in eight days and won four of them including a stunning 51-42 upset at Valparaiso. Valpo has knocked CP out of the state tourney in each of the last four years. I keep reading where CP lost most of their team from last season. That isn't true. Don't believe the 'sad sack' woe-is-us snow job. CP returned eight varsity players off last year's team. And give credit where it's due. Coach Tom May made a bold/crazy move by sliding backup forward Ashley Zaucha to the point guard position and CP has responded with four wins in a row. Zaucha is averaging five assists a game since the change and CP has started scoring over 50 points per game again as wing shooters Stephanie Poulos (9.2 ppg.) and Hannah Plumley (11.6) have both seen their averages rise slowly. We'll know a lot more on Dec 28 when Merrillville (9-0) takes the short ride south to CP in a matchup of arch-rivals. Can they beat Merrillville? Yes. Can they go to the state finals? Probably not. The CPLBs (Crown Point Lady Bulldogs) have the a lot of untapped ability, but this senior class truthfully has had very little athletic success in any sport and they lack the confidence to win all the games they should win. It is at least 100-1 against Crown Point to go to the finals.
7.) 4A Chesterton (7-2)
11-11 (2005), 14-8 (2004), 13-10 (2003)
CHESTERTON - The Trojans are an example of how tough the Duneland Athletic Conference is. Valpo is 7-3, Merrillville is 9-0. Crown Point is 8-4. And then there's Chesterton. The Trojans are like Lowell in that they rely on basically six players. But one is Division I wing player Kelly Peller (16 ppg.), who scored 23 points in last week's 49-41 win over Lake Central. The Trojans have charged up to Christmas with three road wins in a row. This is a very good defensive team, allowing juts 43 points a game against an elite schedule.
Chesterton has lost to Penn (8-2) and Merrillville (9-0) and strength of schedule is crucial if you want to go to the state finals. Nobody likes to play Chesterton because they are a pain defensively. Nobody will blow them out. Not even state powerhouse Lawrence North, who Chesterton will play on Dec.28. But the Trojans are more interested in Dec.22 when they face rival Valparaiso. A Trojan win and a CP upset of Merrillville on Dec. 28 ties Chesterton for first place. Can they win the DAC? Yes. Can they go to the state finals? No. Lack of depth will wipe them out before they win six playoff games. Chesterton, like Crown Point, is 100-1 to reach the 4A finals.
8.) 2A North Judson (9-1)
22-4 (2005), 12-9 (2004), 13-8 (2003)
NORTH JUDSON - North Judson, the only 2A team in the top-10, is again rolling against the independent schedule they play. Judson is 3-1 against 3A schools, including a 62-54 upset of Tippecanoe Valley last Monday night (12-19-2005). Judson has only an eight-point loss at 3A Plymouth, a very good loss. Nobody benefits from being undefeated. Chelsea Howard scored 21 against TV and the Judds (they hate that nickname but I love it) sank 21 of 25 from the foul line. They are not underrated at Class 2A, No. 7 but North Judson is in the middle of nowhere, so nobody (media-wise) covers them. Judson is in the middle of a 10-day holiday break and a monster game looms at 2A power Rochester (9-1) on Jan. 3. Judson plays seven 3A schools, which soups them up for the post-season.
Judson is far from the best team in the six-county area (Lake, Porter, LaPorte, Newton, Jasper, Starke) we call NW Indiana, but they are clearly the best 2A team and they have the best lead guard in Kristen Bolen. You MUST have either a very good lead guard or an absolute superstar (or two) at other positions to win a lot of state playoff games in a row. There's a reason Tri-Central is going for four state 1A titles in a row and 3A defending champ St. Joseph's is No. 22 in the nation. It's their lead guards. The power in Class 2A is in the south. North Judson is NW Indiana's best bet, no more than 10-1 odds to return to the state finals.
9.) 3A Andrean (5-3)
9-13 (2005), 7-14 (2004), 15-9 (2003)
MERRILLVILLE - The 59ers got shanghaied by Munster 54-27 in the LAC tourney and a game against Kankakee Valley got snowed out. The Niners could come up swinging, following their 51-48 win over Lowell (10-2) on Wednesday (12-21-2005) night. Andrean has lost to Munster (10-3), Merrillville (9-0) and St. Joseph's so it's hard to pass judgement on them yet. The Niners could also have a happy New Year if they can sweep the Wheeler Tournament Dec. 27-28. With Suzanne Cunningham coming off soccer and Courtney Pishkur coming off an injury, the fact that the Niners will have 10 games after the first of the year works in their favor. Can they win the sectional title? Yes. Can they reach the state finals? Can George Bush win the Iraq war? Let's be realistic. Class 3A includes defending state champion and undefeated, top-ranked South Bend St. Joseph's (8-0), one of the best Indiana girls basketball teams in the last 10 years. No 4A team in the state that I know of has the combination of size, skill and shooting that St. Joe has. The 59ers, the only Lake County team with a prayer (excuse the private school semi-pun) of beating St. Joe, would have to go to a four-corner delay offense against them because the Indians aren't lightning quick and have two very big forwards. Hammond would challenge St. Joe up-tempo and get slaughtered. Griffith would be overwhelmed at guard and would get massacred. Truth? St. Joe has already beaten Andrean 88-53 this year so they're not looking too good either. Andrean needs 3A No. 6 Plymouth, a slowdown team by nature, to beat St. Joe at the sectional and then Andrean beats Plymouth at the regional. St. Joe beat Plymouth just 52-43 in the state tourney last year. But that scenario is unlikely. How unlikely? Maybe 200-to-1.
10.) 4A Highland (8-5)
19-5 (2005), 17-6 (2004), 24-3 (2003)
HIGHLAND
- Highland lost twice to Munster in the last 10 days and they
are in the middle of a much-needed 16-day break before they start the final nine
games. Highland is a strength of schedule choice here. they have lost to
Munster (10-3), Gary West Side (6-2), Valparaiso (7-3) and Merrillville (9-0),
all good losses. Highland has never been as good as Highland people
have thought they were. But this team never loses to bad teams. Not inn the last
6-8 years. You cant find a bad loss. The Trojans have allowed just
38 points a game and that's a strong total. With 6-2 center Katie Kane and 5-6
shooter Tina Traczyk, they have a shot in every game. Can the Trojans get
a good draw and win the sectional., It is possible. They play playoff style
basketball.
But top scorer Traczyk has moved to the point and the point guard is the easiest
person to defense.
Can they go to the state finals? No. They don't have the offensive
players to win more than one or two playoff games at best. Highland is
about 500-to-1 to go to the finals.
On the outside looking in...
1.) 4A Lowell (10-2)
13-8 (2005), 15-9 (2004), 11-12 (2003)
LOWELL - Lowell rolled over Rossville and Carroll at the Carroll County Classic last weekend after beating Calumet 59-49 last Friday (12-16-2005). Three wins in 24 hours. That's the second straight year that Lowell has won three games in 24 hours the week before Christmas. Lowell is the No.1 free throw shooting team in NW Indiana, hitting almost 77 percent even though Kelly Johnson, Lowell's leading scorer last season, and an 81% foul shooter, has not played one minute yet.
Lowell lost 51-48 at Andrean Wednesday night (12-21-2005), but the question still stands as to when and if Johnson and 5-10 backup center Gabi Goetz will play? If the Devils' six player rotation can expand to eight by the end of next month, they will be a playoff contender. Due to the the strength of 4A Sectional one (four winning teams other than Lowell), it would be nearly impossible for the Red Devils to win three games in five days with six players. The second half of Lowell's schedule is much tougher than the first. The Devils have played only three 4A teams so far and they have four more to play. Lowell has had a good two-year run and it could get great over the next six weeks if everything falls into place. But they have not played the schedule (as of yet) to win the sectional. Still, for a school that was one match away from the state finals in volleyball and upset state champions in football already this year, I hesitate to say that Lowell cannot do anything right now.
2.) 1A South Central (10-0)
18-7 (2005), 12-8 (2004), 9-13 (2003)
UNION TOWNSHIP - South Central rolled over winless LaCrosse 83-18, but the big game was an 83-74 come-from-behind win over Hebron. That's typical South Central. They did that last season. The Satellites run-and-gun style of play enables them to fall behind by 15 points and then come back and win. However, the fact that SC could be 13 points behind Hebron (3-8), a potential playoff rival, is not encouraging for SC's long term post-season survival. SC topped Washington Township 93-68 for the South County Tournament championship Tuesday (12-20-2005) night with Mallory Gorski scoring 32 points on 13 of 22 shooting from the field. The schedule cripples the Satellites. They have faced LaCrosse (0-10) twice and could see them four times. Add that to wins over River Forest (1-8), Culver (2-8) and Marquette (3-7) and you can see it's been an easy road for the Lady Lites. But SC did beat No. 7 Morgan Township 60-55, even though Morgan was short two players for that game. Morgan will likely be the only top-10 team that SC sees all year, but nobody rolls through the eight-team Porter County Conference (PCC) tournament without any problems. Can SC win the PCC and go 21-0? Yes. Can they go to the state finals? Probably not. As an aside, the fact that there is debate over the relative merits of South Central in NW Indiana media is a step forward. Ten years ago, no one in Lake County sports reporting knew where South Central was.
3.) 2A Rensselaer (6-2)
15-7 (2005), 10-11 (2004, 9-12 (2003)
RENSSELAER
- Only eight games so far? Rensselaer rolls along unnoticed, but
the good times may come to an end after a 11-day layoff and a date with powerful
Maconaquah (9-1) on December 29th. Rensselaer smoked out Sheridan 62-35 on
Dec. 17, with 5-10 Reagan Kaane scoring 11 points as the Bombers built up a 25-5
first quarter lead. Hard to judge this team yet. They have beaten no
one with a record better than 6-5. The two losses are to Benton Central
(8-1) and St. Joseph's (9-0). Rensselaer does have West Lafayette (6-4)
and North Judson in the second half of the season, but they've hardly started
yet.