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2004-2005 Boys Basketball"The Stretch Run"A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith(1-27-2005) |
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2004-2005 Boys Basketball"The Stretch Run"A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith(1-27-2005) |
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(1-27-2005) With the end of the Porter County Conference (PCC) tournament, there's only single games left until the post-season and it's time for everybody to get ready.
If there is a dominant team in the six county (Lake, Porter, LaPorte, Jasper, Newton and Starke) area we call NW Indiana, they have disguised themselves very well. That is the way it should be.
Once again. If you accept the fact that ALL players try hard, ALL players who stay with the sport are doing something noble, and that ALL players want to win for various reasons, please allow me to get on to which teams can go for the gold. What you are about to read may by 50-50 positive and negative and if you don't want to know how things appear from one unbiased observer, please, go check out the Teri Hatcher 'Desperate Housewives ' web site.
Gary West Side won the state title in 2002, but before that, there were no champions since 1991 (Gary Roosevelt). The best chance for a title this year would appear to be in Class 3A where Andrean (10-2) has been strong and many of the top-10 3A schools are downstate. Again, note that I am looking for a NW Indiana state finalist.
For example, Gary West Side, Merrillville and East Chicago (obviously, you must pick one because all 3 go through the Michigan City Regional) they a have a chance to REACH the state finals in 4A. But all of them would be 15-20 point underdogs against nationally-ranked Indianapolis Arlington (14-0), Lawrence North (11-2) or superpower Pike (14-1).
The poorest chance of a finalist appears to be in Class 1A. Kouts (11-2) is a solid team but No. 2 Caston (14-0) is undefeated, No. 11 Lafayette Catholic is loaded and No. 10 Blackhawk Christian of Fort Wayne is always formidable. Competitive Class 2A is more open than it appears. Defending 2A state champ Jimtown (11-1) is No. 1 but they appear vulnerable and the vast majority of the 2A Top-10 is in southern Indiana.
Below is a realistic evaluation of NW Indiana's chances. It will be a little blunt and again, if you are sensitive, go back to re-reading George Bush's inauguration speech on how he's out to save the world by trying to hide unsolvable problems in piles of your tax money. This here is a “no-fairy tale zone.”
CLASS 1A
POTENTIAL STATE FINALISTS (0)
NONE
LAFAYETTE - Lafayette Catholic would block anyone and everyone at the
semistate level. It almost isn't fair. Catholic (7-4) smoked out Class 1A No. 7
Clinton Prairie 68-39 last Friday and I don't know how well anyone else
in the north would fare against them.
Catholic is led by 6-6 Division 1 prospect sophomore guard Will Hubertz (18.1 ppg.), a future star. They average 69 points a game and have two 6-6 players. Catholic plays five 4A teams and five 3A schools.
Undefeated, top-ranked Tri-County is not in the north half of the bracket and would not see a region team until the state final. Good thing. Tri-Central averages 75 points a game and shoots 37% fro 3-point range.
Tri-Central is considered a once-in-a-generation team that is the favorite for the state title.
By the way, Tri-Central faces Lafayette Catholic on Feb. 12.
This is not a real good year in 1A in NW Indiana. Kouts (11-2), led by athletic guard Johnny Selman, would appear to be the a regional contender but not the favorite.
CLASS 2A
POTENTIAL STATE FINALIST (2)
BISHOP NOLL (5-9)
HAMMOND - You might think that boys on a losing team would have to smoke a lot of weed to be thinking about reaching the state finals but Noll should be plotting the path to Indianapolis because they can make it there.
Here's the fact that will make you change your mind. Bishop Noll has yet to play a Class 2A school this season. All of the games they have played have been against 3A or 4A schools. North Judson (8-4) is the ONLY 2A team that Noll will play all year. Noll is 4-5 against Class 3A teams .
Speedy guards Greg Jones (20.3 ppg.) and Sam Watts (18.4 ppg.) are a high-scoring pair and I don't see a team (other than Jimtown) at the sectional or the regional with a superior duo. The forwards are all small (no one taller than 6-3 Carlos Velez) and inconsistent but the ball wont be in their hands. 6-0 Ryan Schooler is a three-point threat and 6-0 Eric Pelletier is a hustling player. There is depth at the Noll guard line and even though a big difference maker (6-7 soph Steve Radloff) apparently isn't ready. Give them a bye and Lake Station (0-17) or Hanover Central (2-11) in the sectional semifinals and they are too legit to quit.
NEGATIVES: This is just too small a team. They'll have four six foot players on the floor at times. Noll is used to losing. Noll will finish at 7-13 or 8-12 before they kick off the state tourney run. The defending state champion (Jimtown) blocks Noll's path at the regional and Boone Grove, with a potent 6-4 post player in Danny Borys (21 ppg.) blocks their path at the sectional.
TARGET TEAM: JIMTOWN (11-1)
ELKHART - The Jimmies lost 6-8 Kyle Johnson off the state title team but they are still paced by 6-0 guard Tyler Leighton (18.5 ppg.) and 6-3 guard Derrick DeShone (12.6 ppg.) DeShone, the son of coach Randy DeShone, the floor leader, was just 32-of-57 from the line through 11 games. Leighton is 50-of-55 from the line and a highly skilled player.
The Jimmies are no bigger than Bishop Noll but they are 5-0 against 3A schools. The only loss was 52-46 to Class 4A Penn. Jimtown also plays 4A neighbor Concord (12-1) late in the year.
The Jimmies, still better known for football, have not played Noll's schedule but they have been in the regional twice in four years and they're used to it.
the regional is in North Judson and that's a lot further from Elkhart than it is from Hammond.
This is a physical defense-oriented playoff-tempo team but I thought they were a little bit lucky to go all the way last year.
BOONE GROVE (10-3)
PORTER TOWNSHIP - Boone Grove has been in every game all year despite losses to 4As Portage and Valparaiso and 1A No. 8 Kouts (11-2). The Wolves have the post game to deal with guard-oriented 2A schools. I haven't seen everybody but in the regional bracket, I don't know of any one player who can guard 6-4 Danny Borys (21 ppg.).
The Wolves also have a promising 6-4 shot blocker in Jon Shurr and a fine perimeter defender in 6-3 junior Will Mitchell. Point guard Joe Faron is a capable senior and soph Jake Pivarnik is an impact three-point shooter.
The Wolves play four teams out of the 4A Duneland Conference including league leader (and almost certain champion) Merrillville (10-2). No small school in this area would dare play Merrillville and Valparaiso (11-2) but Boone does. They won the South County tournament with a close win over 1A No. 8 Kouts (11-2) and lost the PCC tournament title game in 3 overtimes to Kouts, 70-68. That game should inspire them and keep them humble.
The Wolves' eight game winning streak indicates they can win a half dozen straight to reach Indianapolis. Their defense is pretty consistent.
Boone's girls team is undefeated and by the time the Wolves start the playoffs, their 'girlfriends' could be regional or semistate champs. At a small school, that type of thing is contagious.
Shurr, Mitchell and Faron are long-armed defenders and Borys is a strong rebounder. If no one gets hurt (they are only 7 deep), this team has the pace and the post to go a long way.
NEGATIVES: Depth. Boone might have just six versatile players. Any fouls on Borys are serious and there is not a truly fast player on this team.
The scoring is unbalanced. No one other than Borys averages in double figures. Boone has never advanced beyond the regional level in the entire history of the state tournament.
TARGET TEAM: BISHOP NOLL (5-9)
HAMMOND - I don't know why I'm so confident but I can almost guarantee you that Boone would beat Jimtown. I love the way they match up against Jimmies' star Derrick DeShone. But Noll is another story.
The Warriors would go with four guards against Boone and try to run somebody like 6-4 Jon Shurr off the floor. Noll has the speed to full court press Boone with quickness the Wolves would only have seen against Merrillville.
Boone would likely be forced into some type of gimmick defense against Noll, a team they don't match up with using a zone or man-to-man. Noll is screaming for you to try a Triangle-and-2 defense against them.
But gimmick defenses are always a gamble.
CLASS 3A
POTENTIAL STATE FINALIST (1)
ANDREAN (11-2)
MERRILLVILLE - The 3A football champs are looking for another trip to Indianapolis with 6-7 Division I forward Luke Harangody (22 ppg.) and senior guards Jake Kocal, Tommy Finn and Colin Smith. 6-3 wing scorer Frank Provenzano has missed half a dozen games with injuries and 6-6 junior Chris Kaba completes the team at backup center along with 6-2 David Boarden as a backup small forward.
Honestly, at the start of the year, I thought that Andrean was a bunch of pretenders and the 59ers were giving up too many points. But look around. Who's going to beat them?. You can bet your little brother that 3A Gary Roosevelt WILL NOT defeat Andrean twice. The 68-66 victory earlier was somewhat of a fluke.
Basketball is an offensive game and this is a team that can roll down Route 66 (as in 66 points a game) any time they want. Finn was the QB of the state champion football team and Kocal was his ace receiver. They're not going to be scared by state tournament-crazed fans with painted faces.
The 59ers have also won seven in a row, indicating they can win the 5 or 6 in a row necessary to reach the 3A finals.
Andrean points to the state finals in every team sport every year. They are the only NW Indiana school with the correct attitude. You don't brag big and you don't talk smack because until you're down in Indy, you haven't done jack.
NEGATIVES: They lack a touch of team speed and the sectional is at Roosevelt. Harangody is foul prone and he is 40% of the offense. Finn and Kocal may eventually be tired. They came straight from 16 weeks of football to the basketball team. 3A in Indiana is the home of private schools. There are several Andreans in this state.
TARGET TEAM: PLYMOUTH (11-2)
PLYMOUTH - One of the motherlands of basketball in Indiana. The girls team at Plymouth is in the top five. The boys team, which has won 28 sectional titles, has the state's leading scorer and hosts the regional, which is where they would meet Andrean. Come on. The Chicago Bulls head coach is from Plymouth and he led them to the state title.
The state's top offensive player is Plymouth senior guard Kyle Benge (30.1 ppg.), a game-changing, long range shooter. At 6-1 and 185 pounds, Benge has scored 1,600 points in four years at Class 3A. If you can't guard him, don't even bother showing up.
A true wing, you're going to have to handle Benge with a speedy defender who can follow him through single and double screens off the ball.
Plymouth has no one taller than 6-3 and they reportedly aren't what you'd call fast. But the PHS gym is a somewhat dark, dank old school facility that the home team loves but a visiting squad might struggle with. Legendary Plymouth coach Jack Edison (476-240 in 30 years) coached Scott Skiles to the state title in 1982 and knows every trick imaginable. Plymouth plays seven Class 4A teams.
And, obviously, to play a premier once-in-generation shooter in his home gym where he has shot maybe 500,000 baskets since he was 5 years old is just flat out asking for it. Benge might decide that he has to win this one for the entire town of Plymouth and his soon-to-be 500-win coach. This boy could drop 40 on Andrean and they'd be West-bound on Route 30 before they knew what hit them.
CLASS 4A
POTENTIAL STATE FINALIST (1)
MERRILLVILLE (10-2)
MERRILLVILLE - The Duneland Conference leaders feature 5-10 Josh Mayo, a four year varsity point guard who is NW Indiana's top player. Mayo (17 ppg.) controls the pace of the game and has added a three-point shot that is well above average.
The Pirates have an inconsistent but occasionally outstanding 6-3 forward in junior Greg Hill, an inside-outside scorer who can disappear or dominate. You'd have to go to Indianapolis or Fort Wayne to find a team with more quickness. Guards Tristan Dawson, Daryl Arthur and Dennis Howell are all quick press defenders and they can stay close to shooters.
Up front, the Pirates have 6-5 Dwayne Momon, 6-4 forward Jimmy Reitz ands 6-3 senior Aaron Marcus all capable if not great players. Junior Darryl Evans has blinding speed off the bench and Merrillville always adds a quality player off their highly successful junior varsity for the state tournament.
The Pirates have the best stall in the region, the famed North Carolina 'Four Corners' that ends quarters the way Merrillville wants them ended. The Pirates have rolled up a 10-game win streak while East Chicago and Gary West Side have not won five games in a row during the regular season which suggest they cant do it in the playoffs either.
Add multi generation coach Jim East (545-292 in 36 years) and it will take a formidable group to beat them. Give the Pirates the sectional on their home floor and the regional in nearby Michigan City and its hard to see them stumbling early.
NEGATIVES: They lack size for Class 4A. Gary West Side, for example has 6-7 Jamil Tucker on the wing. Valpo can field a front line of 6-8, 6-6 and 6-5. Possible regional foe Concord (13-1), had a 6-7 center Eric Gaff and Mishawaka (14-0) has 6-7 center Doug Cox.
Other than Mayo, Merrillville lacks consistent jump shooters. If they don't get transition points, its hard for them to roll up high totals.
But the Pirates have only lost in overtime (as of 14 games)so they clearly aren't overloaded with negatives.
TARGET TEAM: Concord (13-1)
ELKHART - Merrillville has defeated everyone in the DAC so I'm assuming they can do it again at the Merrillville sectional.
Concord (13-1) and Mishawaka (14-0), who meet at Mishawaka on Feb. 22, are in the same sectional so only one of them can advance. I think the Pirates would shut down Mishawaka star Antoino Dye and beat the Cavemen.
Concord would pose a tougher challenge. The speedy minutemen are led by the brother combination of 6-2 senior Shawntes Gary (16.7 ppg.) and 6-1 sophomore Darise Gary (12.3 pg.), both explosive open court, high-flying, slam-dunking players who could match Merrillville's athleticism.
5-8 senior guard Michael Moore is a secret weapon. Moore scored 22 in a 72-50 win over Elkhart Central on Jan. 1 and 14 in a 62-51 win over 3A power Plymouth on Jan. 15.
6-7 center Eric Gaff had 15 points and four blocked shots against Riley in December.
The elder Gary is a highlight reel player whose dunks are eagerly anticipated by the Concord crowd. he can shake the entire building with a slam in a big game.
Concord has lost only 52-51 to 3A up-and-comer Northridge (8-4) and they would return to Michigan City (they are defending sectional champs) with the fire to take it higher.