2008-2009 Boys Basketball  Week-11, Top-10 Poll A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith (02-27-2009)

MUNSTER (3-1-2009) Munster rallied off a one loss to Merrillville to finish the regular season as the area's top team.  The loss will serve them well as it removes the pressure of being undefeated, something young players do not respond well to.

Bowman Academy's No. 1 ranking in Class 1A was well earned with wins over 4As South Bend Washington (16-3) and East Chicago (13-7), but it's something they'd be better off without.  No. 1 teams rarely win the state title and Bowman has set themselves up on a state-title-or-bust mission.  It will be tough.  No one in Bowman's sectional is above .500, but Triton (17-2) waits at the regional and Lafayette Catholic should be the semi-state foe.  Lafayette Catholic plays six 4A teams and seven 3A schools.  They aren't going to be afraid of another 1A private school.

Bad news for basketball as a whole.  The IHSAA will not allow a vote on a proposed reduction of the sate tournament from four to three classes.  Citing a suspect poll of principals, the IHSAA said that principals like the four class set up by a 58% to 42% margin.  The IHSAA then canceled any vote by its membership,  I would guess because they didn't want to go against the will of principals.

Keep in mind, it's principals who initiated the quality slide in the Duneland Conference by forcing teams to pay the debilitating double round robin league format.  Principals simply do not seem to study athletic issues, nor do they take input from ADs and coaches.  They seem to vote in lock step with other principals.

The competitive imbalance and severe travel problems caused by the four class system will continue, I assume, until the present IHSAA leadership passes on or until coaches and ADs press the issue and demand a re-vote, citing costs and travel hardships, which might matter to a new IHSAA board.

Let's look into the post-season.  It's time for a playoff outlook.  Some teams are rising faster than the national debt, while others are going to be out of work faster than Roland Burris.

1. (4A) Munster (18-1)
2008 (16-6), 2007 (21-4), 2006 (20-4), 2005 (16-8), 2004 (20-2)

MUNSTER:  Munster hasn't allowed more than 58 points all season.  They are the undefeated champions of the Northwest Crossroads Conference.  The only knock on the Mustangs is their schedule, which does not including many teams outside Northwest Indiana. 

OUTLOOK:  Good.  East Chicago and Lake Central drew each other in the opening round, while Munster got Lowell (8-10), a team they've dominated in recent years.  The draw would indicate that this is Munster's year, but they do not really have the post players to go deep into the tournament.

2. (4A) Lake Central (14-5)
2008 (9-12), 2007 (13-9), 2006 (7-14), 2005 (11-10)

ST. JOHN:  LC swept Merrillville (14-5) and Crown Point (12-7) on the way to a second place finish in the DAC.  I don't know the physical condition of 6-foot-8 Eric Summers, the league's certain MVP.  He'll play, but LC has to win three games in one week to reach the regional.  Without Summers, LC's prospects are about as exciting as another speech by Bobby Jindal.

OUTLOOK:  I don't like the draw.  They will have to play three hard games to win the sectional, and while they may have had the best season of anyone in the DAC, it's hard to see LC winning three sectional games against the teams they have to beat.

3.  (4A) Merrillville (14-5)
2008 (16-5), 2007 (13-9), 2006 (17-4), 2005 (18-4), 2004 (9-12)

MERRILLVILLE:  The Pirates closed the season with six consecutive wins and then drew Portage (6-13), a team they can beat in the sectional quarterfinals.  The installation of sophs Brandon Clark and Jeremiah Jones at guard has coincided with this winning streak.  You don't want young guards in the post-season, but you do want four players at 6-foot-5 or taller playing a lockup zone on jittery sectional foes.

4. (4A) Valparaiso (16-3)
2008 (11-14), 2007 (23-3), 2006 (21-3), 22-3 (2005)

VALAPRAISO:  There is just a feeling that Valpo is sliding.  Despite a 41-39 win over LC, it seems Merrillville and CP are closing on them.  I would like to think that VHS can go to a playoff slowdown at any moment and drag any team into six overtimes.  Don't laugh.

OUTLOOK:  They are not 100% healthy.  They may have peaked at mid-season.  Valpo could conceivably get to the regional, but very little in the second half of the season indicates they will.  It's just not their year.

5.  (4A) Gary West Side (14-5)
2008 (18-5), 2007 (14-7), 2006 (7-14), 2005 (19-5), 2004 (12-7)

GARY:  The Cougars have been good all year, but no more than that.  A very surprising 74-64 home loss to 1A private school LaLumiere, but the Cougars have five losses by 10 points or less and guards DeShawn Clay and Xavier Jones are top rate.  West Side is like Munster, however; no post player.  They got a very good draw at the EC Sectional, though.

OUTLOOK:  With EC drawing  LC, West Side gets a break.  But the Cougars need EC to win because they can't handle LC's Eric Summers.  It's hard to see them surviving regional play because of the lack of size.

7.  (4A) East Chicago (13-7)
2008 (20-4), 2007 (23-3), 2006 (19-5), 2005 (13-8)

EAST CHICAGO:  The 94-93 double-overtime loss to Bowman Academy said a lot about EC.  The Cardinals led by 15 with three minutes left and gave it up with poor play and bad decisions.  EC outscored Bowman 26-6 in the third quarter, but it was 75-72 for Bowman with 50 seconds left.  EC plays a very difficult schedule year in and year out, but they didn't really defeat anybody good this year.  The guards are very good, but EC really does not stop anybody, so it's hard to see them going far in the post-season even though they host the sectional.

OUTLOOK:  Drawing LC in the sectional quarterfinals may seal their doom.  The Cardinals are exciting and crowd pleasing, but they don't play any more defense than Derrick Rose does and EC figures to be about as successful in the post-season as the Chicago Bulls will be.

8. (4A) Lew Wallace (14-5)
2008 (13-11), 2007 (5-17), 2006 (4-17), 2005 (5-17)

GARY:  Wallace ends a strange journey where they played only seven NW Indiana schools in the 20-game regular season.  Unless they upset Munster (18-1) in the season finale, Wallace will carry large question marks into the postseason as there is a problem with 6-foot-7 junior Damion McGee (14.1 ppg, 10.6 rpg.), who is academically ineligible and has missed LWs last three games.  The Hornets must self-destruct to lose the sectional where they are a large favorite, but McGee being unable to play could qualify as self-destruction.  I don't know if he can be eligible in two weeks (some schools have a six week grading period), but LW needs to play at a high emotional level in the first round without shooting 12 of 40 from the line.

OUTLOOK:  Perennial power Plymouth is 6-14.  St. Joseph's is 4-17.  If Wallace does not get past the regional in 2009, they won't for many years.  I don't think they'll fail.  Lew Wallace will be playing in the semi-state on March 21.

9. (4A) CROWN POINT (12-7)
2008 (17-7), 2007 (12-9), 2006 (9-13), 2005 (13-9)

CROWN POINT:  CP made a strong run down the stretch.  After an overtime loss to East Chicago, the Bulldogs won five in a row.  CP tests a theory.  Coaches love balanced scoring, but teams without one dominant scorer rarely win trophies.  Teams where every player scores the same amount of points are happy teams.  After 19 games, Crown Point's Michael Lipton (11.5 ppg.), Nate Akers (10.1 ppg.) and Brady Schuster (11.6 ppg.) all scored about the same per game and guard Michael (Spike) Albrecht (8.4 ppg.) wasn't far behind.  How long can you win like that?  We're about to see.

OUTLOOK:  Cautiously optimistic.  They draw LaPorte (9-10) in the quarterfinals of 4A Sectional One.  Michigan City (3-16) or Hobart (12-7) would be the second round opponent.  Crown Point should be in the sectional final and if the foe is not Merrillville, they could win.  I look for Michael Lipton to emerge as the top post-season scorer.

(2A) BOONE GROVE (13-5)
2008 (12-10), 2007 (11-12), 2006 (18-6), 2005 (19-7)

PORTER TOWNSHIP:  Boone was 1-3 against the Duneland Conference this season and 2-3 against Class 4A schools.  But those games should get them ready for the post-season.  Lead guard Michael Eleftheri (13.7 ppg.), NW Indiana's top 3-point shooter, is the key.  But lefty forward Wayland Roach (8.6 ppg.) and 6-foot-5 Jacob Wright (3.7 ppg.) must be scoring options next week.  The last few games for Boone are just practice for the playoffs.  The Wolves only play 19 games because they lost in the PCC quarterfinals, but in some respects, the entire season is set up as more a playoff warm up for Boone than it is for any other school.

OUTLOOK:  It will all come down to the first game in 2A Sectional 34 against North Judson (14-5), which features 5-foot-10 senior guard Danny Zimmerman (8.1 ppg.), 6-foot-4 senior Myles Thies (12.7 ppg.) and 6-foot-5 freshman John Eckert (10.5 ppg.).  Judson defeated Boone 57-51 on Feb. 7, but Boone led by four after three quarters.  I think Boone will defeat North Judson and win the sectional and regional.