Week 10 Picks:  2003 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

WEEK NINE (9) ANALYSIS:  Merrillville's upset of Chesterton and Wheeler's win over Noll were predictable (although obviously, not by me!) as the Noll-Wheeler game was out of control and could have gone either way.  I don't know why anybody thought 1A Whiting could beat 4A KV. One more TD at CP and we have a perfect pick. LaPorte over undefeated Portage is the pick-of-the-year so far.

2002 Regular season (9 weeks) 85 of 109,  77.9%
2002 Playoffs:   78 of 106,  73.5%
Final 2002 (15 weeks) 163 of 215, 75.9%

2003 (Week one) 8 of 12, 66.7%
2003 (Week two) 9 of 12, 75%
2003 (Week three)  6 of 12,  50%
2003 (Week four) 12 of 12, 100%
2003 (Week five) 9 of 12, 75%
2003  (Week six) 7 of 11, 63.6%

2003 (Week seven) 6 of 10, 60%
2003 (Week eight) 8 of 10, 80%
2003 Week 9)  8 of 10, 80%
2003 Season: 73 of 101,  72.6%

WEEK TEN (10): Oct. 24, 2003

We'll pick 20...The local sectionals in 1A, 2A, 3A and 4A plus the two 5A sectionals. This is a very predictable week because some of these schools just shouldn't be here. Weather in the low 60s shouldn't be a major factor for anyone but rain is forecast which could mess up passing and speed teams like Morton, Highland, Crown Point and Portage. The score from Noble County could be interesting. Top-rated East Noble faces a Concord team that has faced a very tough schedule. East Noble stands between the 4A region champion and the state finals. Big smoke will be created in Indianapolis when Lawrence Central (8-1) and Warren Central (7-2) go head-to-head. Warren Central is the No. 1 team in the state in the Sagarin computer rankings.

1A  Sectional 33

West Central (6-3) 56, Culver (0-9) 0
1A schools have ups and downs. Culver, a past sectional 33 winner is loaded with downs this year. They gave up 427 yards to La Ville last week. True, West Central got beat 50-7 by 1A No.1 Pioneer last week, but that just indicates how much of a spread there is in 1A.

South Newton (5-4) 35, South Central (1-8) 6
Culver and South Central are in the same boat.  It's basketball season. River Forest beat South Central by 21 last week and RF is fading. South Newton blasted North Newton 38-0 last week.

LaVille (6-3) 28, River Forest (6-3) 21
LaVille has lost to Lewis Cass (9-0), Jimtown (8-1) and New Prairie (7-2). The Ingots have not been the same since a 50-point loss to Pioneer. On the road, they can't survive here.

Whiting (3-6) 42, Lake Station (0-9) 14
Unfortunately another 0-10 season for Lake Station. Whiting already smoked them 46-0 last month. And this is a weak Whiting team on defense. Lake Station needs to be in the Porter County Conference and an independent in football.

2A  Sectional 33

Winamac (3-6) 30, Knox (1-8) 12
Knox got beat 61-8 last week and gave up 440 yards at New Prairie. Winamac's Parker Roth ran for 203 yards last week. But something worries me about this pick. These are bitter rivals. You wild prep football gamblers. Stay away from this one.

Wheeler (9-0) 49, Rensselaer (5-4) 21
Some in the 'region' feel this will be close but Rensselaer is racked by injuries. At one time this season they were almost down to using the waterboy at quarterback. The Bearcats have some serious work to do defensively. Why has Wheeler given up 105 points in the last five weeks? They'd better find out or the playoff run ends soon. Andrew Patten scored 5 TDs last week but somebody will eventually stop him.

Bishop Noll (6-3) 28, North Newton (3-6) 14
Noll will have trouble getting started after last week's 48-37 loss to Wheeler. North Newton gave up 339 yards to South Newton last week. How much will they give up to Bishop Noll? But the Warriors, new to Class 2A this year, will go whip up on the Spartans like USC on Notre Dame.

North Judson (5-4) 56, Horace Mann (0-7) 0
I'm only picking this game because I have to.

3A  Sectional 17

ANDREAN (9-0) 56, Wirt (2-7) 0
Here is another strong argument for allowing only .500 or better teams in the state tournament. Let's be honest. The only way Wirt can win is if Andrean misses the bus to an Andrean home game.

Morton (3-6) 42, Hammond (0-9) 14
Hammond goes 0-10 and they'll go 0-10 next year unless they can drag some more players out of the hallways. Look at the underclassmen in the LAC Black and tell me who Hammond beats next year.

Gavit (6-3) 28, Calumet 2-7) 14
Last week, Gavit beat Calumet 29-28. Calumet has gotten healthy and they rolled up 400 yards last week but I think Gavit's the better team.

Griffith (5-4) 49, Clark (4-5) 6
There is a reason that Clark is in the Blue Division and Griffith is in the Black Division. Clark has not played anywhere near the caliber of schedule Griffith has, and is simply not in Griffith's class. The Pioneers have no chance.

4A  Sectional 9

LOWELL (8-1) 45, Lew Wallace (4-5) 12
Lowell is among the state's top 50 teams and Lew Wallace got beat by 59 points last week. Wallace was 0-5 outside Gary and 4-0 inside the city limits. This game will be played outside of Gary.

Munster (7-2) 28, Gary West Side (5-3) 0
Munster has the perfect sectional draw. Any Gary school on the road in the quarterfinals. That way, you get a semifinal game at home. The Mustangs have a nice multiple attack and they've only lost to Lowell (8-1) and Andrean (9-0), both games they led in the second half.

Hobart (3-6) 21, Highland (4-5) 19
Hobart's offensive line is very hard to deal with and the 3-6 record is deceptive. They led Griffith in the fourth quarter and led Lowell at the half. Highland can relate. They lose all close games. The Trojans have dropped four by seven points or less. Hobart won the first meeting 16-14 and this should be close as well.

Kankakee Valley (3-6) 38, Gary Roosevelt (1-8) 6
KV came to life last week and smoked Whiting 48-14. Whiting is better than Roosevelt. Did Gary Roosevelt really lose 78-0 to Gary West Side 2 weeks ago?

5A  Sectional 2

Adams (2-7) 28, Riley (0-9) 0
Adams smoked Riley 33-0 just last week. Sometimes a winless team meeting the same team two weeks in a row feels they have a chance. And sometimes a cow can fly like an eagle. It's basketball season at Riley.

LaPorte (6-3) 28, Elkhart Memorial (9-0) 20
The best matchup of week one. The computer rankings have Memorial at 5th in the state but this is their first ever undefeated season and they have a lot of pressure at home. The Chargers have outscored the opposition 293-48 which is not that many points for an undefeated team in a league with mostly smaller schools. LaPorte has won five in a row, the Slicers have better offensive players and play in a much tougher league. Memorial is coming off a 56-13 win over winless Northridge. LaPorte is coming off a 22-21 upset of undefeated Portage.
Everything here tells you that LaPorte pulls off another upset.

Penn (8-1) 56, Clay (6-3) 0
Clay allowed only 86 points all season, but 44 were at Penn. Clay rolled up 446 yards on Penn two weeks ago but still lost 42-20. Mark my words. That was an insult to Penn and they will smoke Clay like a fine cigar. Penn buried Mishawaka 47-14 last week and they have scored 374 points (41.5 ppg.) in nine games. Penn has won 18 straight leagues titles. Clay never beats them.

Mishawaka (6-3) 21, Elkhart Central (6-3) 7
Central's been on the fade. Mishawaka's already beaten them once. Central gave up 348 yards rushing to St. Joseph's last week and Mishawaka, while losing 47-14, gained 227 yards rushing on Penn.

5A  Sectional 1

Portage (8-1) 24, CROWN POINT (5-4) 17
This game got dramatically closer last week when Portage lost 22-21 at LaPorte and Crown Point dominated Michigan City 31-14. Portage beat CP 56-0 five weeks ago, so they will have difficulty coming into CP anything but overconfident. CP plays well at home and they'll put up a fight but, in good weather, Portage has too many offensive weapons.

Valparaiso (4-5) 35, East Chicago (5-4) 14
The records will fool some, but Valpo has played much tougher competition. Here's a game that could swing wildly if the younger Vikings fall behind in the first few minutes. I don't think that will happen and the Vikings blow out EC.  But here's another game that you and your pals shouldn't bet on. (If you bet on these games, I'm coming to get you, understand?)

Chesterton (6-3) 49, Michigan City (3-6) 7
The worst thing that happened to Michigan City was not their 31-14 loss at Crown Point last week, but Chesterton's 7-3 loss at Merrillville. No contest. Michigan City is not strong defensively and Chesterton has to make good after that upset loss. MC lost 32-7 to Chesterton in September and I just don't know how much life they have left.

MERRILLVILLE (5-4) 20, LAKE CENTRAL (1-8) 0
It's been a very long year for Lake Central. They've lost a lot of players through injuries and some to suspensions. They could save it all with a win over Merrillville, but the Pirates are coming off a big win over Chesterton and it's hard to see them falling here.

Copyright © 2002 USA-365.com and Meyer Multimedia Services, a division of Meyer Broadcasting Corp.  All rights reserved.
Revised: June 08, 2004 .