Week 10 Picks:  2005 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

October 18, 2005

WEEK-9 ANALYSIS:  Who knows what happened in the LaPorte-Portage game, 49-42?  Calumet is fine as long as the weather holds out. Lake Station is not dead yet. They showed a lot of life last week after some tough losses.  North Judson does not appear to be ready for the playoffs if we've talking about a sectional semifinal against Rensselaer.  There were a couple of others like Valpo over LC and Morton over Hammond which were too lopsided to pick, at least they were here. Crown Point's offensive totals are way up with Matt Jansen at QB. Merrillville needs more offense and Lowell rarely loses to teams they should beat.

WEEK 9 (2005) PIX recap

WEEK 9: 7 of 11, 63.6%

WEEK 8: 9 of 12, 75.0%

WEEK 7: 10 of 12, 83.3%

WEEK 6: 9 OF 13, 69.2%

WEEK 5: 10 OF 14, 71.4%

WEEK 4: 9 OF 12, 75.0%

WEEK 3: 7 of 13, 53.8%

WEEK 2: 11 of 15, 73.3%

WEEK 1: 16 of 20, 80%
2005 Season: 88 of 122, 72.1%

2004 Overall: 156 of 216, 72.2%

WEEK 10 (TEN) PREDICTIONS 10-21-2005

MERRILLVILLE  - There's a weather change coming and it will affect opening night of the state playoffs. Of the three undefeated teams in the six county area (Lake, Porter, LaPorte, Starke, Newton and Jasper) we call NW Indiana, only Griffith is a run-based squad. CP and Whiting are very much multiple offense teams although Whiting has to pass to win. If a team is fumble-prone like Merrillville or Michigan City has been, they could be vulnerable in the rain. There also won't be very many come-from-behind wins if the forecast is accurate. I don't know how you prepare to play in the rain when the weather's been so dry most of the year.  On a night like Friday, there's no substitute for experience at quarterback. 

1A Sect. 33   -  Whiting (9-0) 56, River Forest (1-8) 7
WHITING  –  The records speak for themselves here. RF has only 25 or 26 players and they are badly overmatched, even in non-Whiting weather.  RF has a decent chance to beat Whiting... next year.

1A Sect. 33   -  Lake Station (2-7) 28, LaVille (3-6) 20
LAKE STATION  - LaVille rushed for 270 yards last week against winless Culver, but Lake Station gained 387 yards rushing against Clark. The Eagles seemed out of it two weeks ago but they do average 20 points a game and LaVille has little 'D'.  It's going to rain so this will be a run-fest and probably a very entertaining game.

1A Sect. 33  - South Central (4-5) 42, Culver (0-9) 14
UNION MILLS  -   The Satellites rushed for 482 yards last week against River Forest. Culver has no answer for it.  After this game is over, ask somebody in the stands whether they really believe that 0-9 teams should be entered in the state tournament.

1A  Sect.  33  -  West Central (8-1) 35, South Newton (6-3) 14
KENTLAND - South Newton's passing attack gets shut down in the rain. West Central has run on everybody and the Rebels will certainly be no exception.  On a dry field on a warm night, South Newton could upset WC.  But look at the forecast.

2A Sect. 25 - North Newton (3-6) 21, Bishop Noll (3-6) 20 
HAMMOND  - Two teams that should be better than they are. The Spartans will get lucky here on the road. Newton's blowout-caliber loss to South Newton last week was a surprise. Probably to them, too.


2A Sect. 25 - North Judson (5-4) 42, Knox (3-6) 21
KNOX -  Not a night for passing and Knox gave up 415 yards rushing last week. This is the type of night that explains why everybody shouldn't go to a 4-WR attack in NW Indiana.


2A Sect. 25  -  Rensselaer (8-1) 28, Wheeler (5-4) 22
RENSSELAER  - Here's where you worry about Rensselaer, which needs to use speed,  On a bad weather night, Wheeler can run the ball and make it close.  But Jacob Kiger at QB for Rensselaer is a very experienced player.


3A Sect. 17  -  Calumet (4-5) 28, Hammond (0-9) 6
HAMMOND -  They fought hard last week but I would be surprised if Hammond has much game left.  In bad weather this one could resemble the Chicago Bears' offense.

3A Sect.  17 - Andrean (8-1) 35, Morton (6-3) 14
HAMMOND - Morton hasn't played well for two weeks, but neither has Andrean. Still, the 59ers can run the ball and Morton can't.  If you can't run the ball in bad weather, your season is over.


3A Sect. 17  - Griffith (9-0) 56, Clark (3-6) 0
HAMMOND – I know Clark held Whiting to 6-0, but this isn't Whiting.  In the rain, there's nothing Clark can do here. The question isn't "Will they win?" but "Will they score?"

3A Sect. 17 - Gavit (1-8)  20, Wirt (2-7) 8
GARY -  I know it's the playoffs, but do I really have to pick this game?


4A Sect. 10 - Wawasee (7-2)  42,  (SB) Washington (4-5)  6
SOUTH BEND  - Always pick against the South Bend schools and you'll never go hungry.  The warriors are more of a running team than last year's 14-1 squad.

4A Sect. 10  - Concord (6-3) 33, Angola (7-2) 21
ANGOLA - Forget the records here. C'mon. Angola has played six 2A schools. Concord will ride home on the happy bus.

4A Sect. 10  - East Noble (7-2) 28, DeKalb (4-5) 7
KENDALLVILLE - The Knights and Konrad Mundon can run the ball and it may rain Friday. East Noble has won six in a row and they've allowed only 14 points a game all year. Take the ground team in a quiet game.

4A Sect. 10 - Plymouth (9-0) 35, Northridge (2-7) 6
MIDDLEBURY - Plymouth is unbeaten for the first time in 28 seasons and they won't be stopped here, even though Northridge
did run for 332 yards last week against Elkhart Memorial.

4A Sect. 9 - Hobart (4-5) 21, Highland (4-5) 14
HIGHLAND - Highland has the better QB but they are not as physical as Hobart.  Look for 220-pound Andrew Jackson to make a difference if the field is bad.

4A Sect. 9 - Gary West Side (3-5) 28, Lew Wallace (2-6) 12 
GARY - Wallace doesn't even average 10 points a game. They don't want to play anymore. Wallace beat West Side 6-0 in September, but you can bet your momma that won't happen again.

4A Sect. 9 - Munster (3-6) 20, Kankakee Valley (6-3) 14
MUNSTER - Forget the records.  Munster steps up to win one more.  I've never accepted the concept that KV has proven they are a good team. They may be one, but they haven't proven it. Munster beat KV in August.

4A Sect. 9 - LOWELL (5-4) 56, Roosevelt (3-5) 12
GARY  - Lowell got the best draw in the state. Roosevelt has never won a state playoff game and they gave up 460 yards rushing last week at 4A No. 2 Indianapolis Cathedral. The Devils get a chance to see if some JV players or freshmen can contribute to the playoff run.

5A Sect. 2  - Elkhart Memorial (3-6) 35, (SB) Riley (2-7) 14
SOUTH BEND - Always pick against the South Bend schools.  Memorial has played better in the last two weeks. All nine teams that have played Riley have scored at least 21 points.

5A Sect. 2  - LaPorte (8-1) 42, (SB) Clay (3-6) 14
SOUTH BEND - LaPorte averages 37 points a game. Clay started the season 3-1 and I don't know what happened, but they haven't won since.  The stunner was a 21-20 loss to Elkhart Central last week. I think Clay is through for the season and they will be fired.

5A Sect. 2 - Mishawaka (8-1) 28,  Elkhart Central (4-5) 20
ELKHART - Central is getting better, but Mishawaka is having a peak year. The Cavemen actually are 8-0-1 because the loss to Penn was in overtime.

5A Sect. 2 - Penn (7-2) 56, (SB) Adams (0-9) 0
SOUTH BEND - This is a good example of why everybody shouldn't make the playoffs. Hopefully, nobody gets hurt and the Adams concession stand makes a good buck.

5A Sect. 1 - Michigan City (5-4) 40, East Chicago (3-6) 12 
EAST CHICAGO - In bad weather, Michigan City can run the ball on East Chicago all night. There is a question of MC HB Ryan  Fics' health. If he does not play, this is only a one TD game.

5A Sect. 1 - Merrillville (7-2) 31, Lake Central (2-7) 7
ST. JOHN - Merrillville is too strong defensively.  There's no place for LC to go here.  I just don't know how they'll move the ball. How come they always seem to draw Merrillville? It's not working for them.

5A Sect. 1 - Portage (2-7) 28, Chesterton (2-7) 14
CHESTERTON - Not a good night to throw the ball and Portage runs it better.  Chesterton is giving up 30 points a game so the Indians reverse an earlier Chesterton win here.

5A Sect. 1 - Crown Point (9-0) 20, Valparaiso (5-4) 14
VALPARAISO  - A very tough opener. Valpo runs the ball better than CP and, in the rain, that could lead to an upset.  But experience at QB is a major factor and CP escapes with a late TD.      

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Revised: October 18, 2005 .