WEEK 9, 2007 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 1; Right - 9 = 90.0%
The Pick	The Result
Kankakee Valley 21, Munster 14	Wrong... Munster 27-15
Crown Point 38,  Michigan City 17	Correct... Crown Point 35-21
Wheeler 42,  Calumet 21	Correct... Wheeler 44-32
Griffith 41, East Chicago 20	Correct... Griffith 38-6
New Prairie 51, Knox 12	Correct... New Prairie 31-14
Valparaiso 35, Lake Central 28	Correct... Valparaiso 17-14
Portage 23,  LaPorte 20	Correct... Portage  27-20
Merrillville 26, Chesterton 20	Correct... Merrillville 38-10
Lowell 19, Andrean 14	Correct... Lowell 31-3
Hammond 21, Clark 14	Correct... Hammond 57-21

'Final warm-up week' - WEEK 9 (nine) Recap - (10-12-2007):  Clark's week eight blowout of Whiting proved misleading as the Pioneers turned right around and got Pearl Harbored by Hammond 57-21.  I would suggest there is every possibility that Clark does another turnabout and advances to the sectional 17 finals.  One week you're Michigan losing to Appalachian State.  The next week you're Michigan embarrassing Purdue for four quarters.  I was surprised that Lowell rolled over Andrean to the extent that they did.  You would never have known what was coming when Andraen led 3-0 after one quarter.  I really thought KV had too much for Munster, but the road win only speaks to some of the promise Munster had at the start of the season.

Best pick of the week?  None.  Maybe the final scores in the CP-Michigan City and LaPorte-Portage games.  It was a week where 10-out-of-10 was achievable.

2007 (Week 1)  8 of 13   =  66.7%
2007 (Week 2)  8 of 11   =  72.7%
2007 (Week 3)  8 of 12   =  66.7%
2007 (Week 4)  10 of 11   =  90.9%
2007 (Week 5)  6 of 10  =  60.0%
2007 (Week 6)  6 of 10  =  60.0%
2007 (Week 7) 10 of 10  =  100.0%
2007 (Week 8)  6 of 10  =  60.0%
2007 (Week 8)  9 of 10  =  90.0%
2007 (Overall) 71 of 97   =  73.2%
2006 (final) OVERALL :  166 of 217 = 76.4% 
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

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Northwest Indiana
WEEK 10 (TEN) PICKS, 10-19-2007

MERRILLVILLE (10-19-2007) - The long and drawn out Indiana state playoffs begin this Friday with an opening week of half mismatches and half matches that shouldn't be occurring yet.  It makes the regular season worthless when you match up league champions in the first or second round, but that does occur and it takes some of the drama out of later rounds.  Plus, I've always thought the all-inclusive state tournament allows you to be the Colorado Rockies, a team that lost most of the year and then go hot at the right time.  It allows you to be a fluke.  Sports isn't about teams that 'got hot at the right time'.  It should be about teams that were good most of the year.

Everybody has such a big ego these days that they'll take a championship any way they can get it.  But if you talk about playing the game "the right way', there's a contradiction there.  You don't want what you didn't earn.  To win a championship the right way means you must be the best team, (or at least a winning team) MOST OF THE YEAR.  If you don't do that, you are a fluke champ.  That's okay if that's all you want.

I've always thought the best weeks of the Indiana state playoffs are the second, third and fifth.  In week two, you get good local matchups of teams that have just won and feel they have a chance to take the sectional.  Week 3 is, in most cases, the local finals.  The ultimate 'area' games.  And week five is the best week of the tournament where greatness can be achieved by qualifying for the state finals.  Usually there's a lot of travel and emotion involved in the semistate (week 5) and those are the memorable games.  More so than the state championships.

Week one? To me, the tourney is one week too long.  If you took only winning teams, you could have a fine tourney in five weeks with far less mismatches.  But Indiana, as I've said here many times, is very reluctant to change of any kind.  And unlike the basketball tournament, which needs a drastic restructure, the football tourney is very exciting.  Once you wipe out half the teams in this first week. 

In the post-season, the rules here are this:  No selecting only competitive games and no selecting only 10 contests.  There is one Class 1A, one Class 2A sectional and one Class 3A sectional in Northwest Indiana.  There are two Class 4A and 5A sectionals in Northwest Indiana.  It's the 'Lightning Round.'  We will pick every game.  I'm either going to do very well or very badly and we'll know very quickly.

There are three major factors that come into play early in the post-season:

1.) Weather:  You have to be ready for that.  You have to practice in it if you can.  Weather:  It should be cold and wet Friday. 

2.) Travel.  In Class 1A and 2A and in 4A Sectional 10, teams are riding the bus as much as two hours.  The only folks who think that doesn't matter are folks who don't have to ride the bus two hours.

3.) Expectations.  You've got to talk up your chances.  Plan for things to work out.  Practice two-point conversions in case you need them to win.  Practice overtime plays in anticipation of going to overtime.  If you do not convey a feeling that you are going to advance, at this point, you don't.  It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I won't bore you with talk of some mismatches, but I will bore you with some of the others.

Class 1A Sectional 33: South Newton (8-1) at Lake Station (2-7)

LAKE STATION - This is a showcase for South Newton 'WonderBoy' Ben Welsh, who was 19-of-26 for 326 yards and 4 TDs while running 5 times for 109 yards in last week's 64-0 win over South Vermillion.  He's a secret to NW Indiana, but Welsh, who caught 63 passes as a wide receiver last year, is now 144-of-235 for 2,201 yards 28 TDs and six interceptions at QB.  He has also rushed 61 times for 674 yards.  I know those numbers appear to be made up, but unless it rains very hard Friday night, Lake Station will find out they are quite real.

South Newton 49, Lake Station 14

Class 1A Sectional 33: West Central (2-7) at LaVille (2-7)

LAKEVILLE - Wow.  This isn't exactly the 'War of the Worlds'.  But West Central got beat 60-0 last week by Pioneer.  LaVille had a lot of things go right in a 34-3 upset of Culver.  LaVille, by the away, has beaten Lake Station 45-6.  You can always be fooled by the last game, but when small schools get crushed like WC did last week, there's usually an injury price to pay as well.  LaVille should roll.

LaVille 28,  West Central 6

Class 1A Sectional 33: River Forest (0-9) at Triton (1-8)

BOURBON - Class 1A football between teams that are virtually winless.  River Forest, listed in some places as 1-8, is truthfully is 0-9.  They lost 63-0 to Whiting in a game Whiting later forfeited due to use of an ineligible player.  Triton, by the way, has beaten LaVille 25-0.  But RF has actually lost 22 games in a row... and I would seriously doubt, if they took a blind vote, that they would vote to drive two hours and play this game.

Triton 20, River Forest 6

Class 1A Sectional 33: Whiting (7-2) at South Central (6-3)

UNION MILLS - Whiting is listed as being 4-5 elsewhere, but on the field, they are 7-2.  South Central sat out at least three seniors last week, including top rusher Cody Williams (16 TDs) and it isn't' certain if they'll play this week.  No explanation was given, but there was an inference they are not injured.  If the weather is good, Whiting has much more of a multiple offense and the Oilers did beat SC 30-20 earlier this year.  If not, there could be an upset here.

Whiting 35, South Central 20

Class 2A Sectional 25: Winamac (4-5) at Seeger (6-3)

SEEGER - Seeger averages 35 points a game and they held North Vermillion to minus-17 yards rushing last week.  The Paitriots' only loss in their last seven games is to 3A Top-10 West Lafayette.  It doesn't matter that Winamac beat Frontier 44-28 last week.  Its basketball season come Monday morning.  This is one of those 'expectation' games.  Seeger always expects to advance.

Seeger 42, Winamac 20

Class 2A Sectional 25: Delphi (2-7) at North Newton (1-8)

MOROCCO - It's going to be hard to even get your mom out to this one.  North Newton beat River Forest, which is really 0-9 and they got a 'free' win from Whiting on the forfeit we talked about earlier.  Delphi got smoked 49-0 by Tipton last week, the fourth time this year they've been shut out.  Games like this are why eventually, the IHSAA must consider not allowing everyone into the state tournament.  But if they force you to go out there, win one for mom.

North Newton 28, Delphi 26

Class 2A Sectional 25: Bishop Noll (4-5) at Renssealer (3-6)

RENSSELAER - Bishop Noll led 41-0 over North Newton last week on the way to a 41-13 win.  Rensselaer lost 24-7 to Benton Central, but the Bombers have played a much tougher schedule than Noll has.  Noll's Tony Hollingsworth scored four TDs last week and he's a big threat, even in bad weather.  The Bombers have struggled on offense and that's why you might want to go against the home team here.  Don't do it.  Noll had three no-contest games in Lake Station, River Forest and North Newton.  The 2-hour bus ride also isn't a plus.

Renssealer 35, Bishop Noll 26

Class 2A Sectional 25: North Judson (4-5) at Wheeler (8-1)

UNION TOWNSHIP - Wheeler only has that unexplainable 10-turnover 25-0 loss to Kankakee Valley, a hot August night when aliens surely invaded Union Mills and took over the bodies of their football players.  Wheeler called Ghost Busters... and they'll be ready for NJ.  Pressure is on here because Wheeler has had very good seasons go down the drain on opening night of the state playoffs before.  But the Bearcats have too much offense.

Wheeler 27, North Judson 14

Class 3A Sectional 17: Knox (5-4) at Gavit (2-7)

HAMMOND - Gavit has totally collapsed, giving up 183 points in the last three weeks.  I cannot explain it, but they aren't THAT bad.  They seem to have given up.  What has Knox done?  What does it matter?  Fortunately, it's a home game, so Gavit boys won't have to ride two hours in the dark after getting stomped.  Repeat after me:  Not every team should be in the post-season.

Knox 40, Gavit 14

Class 3A Sectional 17: Clark (6-3) at Gary Roosevelt (5-4)

GARY - You've got to guess this week at how Clark responds after getting shellacked by Hammond high 57-21 last week.  Gary Roosevelt averages 35 points a game, but they give up 30 per night.  The Velt should not be able to hang here, but it's up to the Pioneers who might think their season ended last week when Hammond took them out behind the barn.  Here's a game where the Clark folks need to talk up their chances.

Clark 35, Gary Roosevelt 8

Class 3A Sectional 17: Wirt (2-7) at Calumet (4-5)

GARY - Wirt has put up a fight against some Gary schools and they have scored points.  But they are outgunned on defense against a strong running team like Calumet, which has a four-game losing streak, but won't have it much longer.  Calumet is supposed to beat Wirt in football and the Warriors, a ground-oriented team on a bad weather night, have not lost to a team with a losing record this season.

Calumet 36, Wirt 20

Class 3A Sectional 17: Andrean (7-2) at New Prairie (7-2)

NEW CARLISLE - An unfortunate first round match of the two top teams in this sectional.  New Prairie option star Cody Williamson has rushed for 100 or more yards eight times this year and NP has 3,000 rushing yards.  Andrean QB Austin Sutter (110-of-192, 1,523 yards), has thrown 18 TDs.  Andrean got blown out last week and I'm sure they'll respond.  But the weather: Cold and possible rain heavily favors New Prairie.  I think a lot of Andrean's wounds last week in the 31-3 loss at Lowell were self-inflicted and the NP pass defense has been shaky.  Don't bet the ranch on this one either way.  Both teams expect to win.

Andrean 35, New Prairie 31

Class 4A Sectional 9: Griffith (6-3) at Morton (6-3)

HAMMOND - How many times can Griffith continue to beat Morton?  This is the 8th meeting of Griffith and Morton in four years and Griffith is 7-0.  To be honest, though, I do not feel an upset coming on here because the Governors have not shown that much offense.  It's Morton's bad luck that when they moved to 4A, Griffith (temporarily) moved with them.  Griffith is the only team in Sectional 9 that Morton can't beat.  And there's the expectations.  Griffith very much expects to win.  If everyone is reasonably healthy, they will.

Griffith 42, Morton 26

Class 4A Sectional 9: Lew Wallace (1-8) at Highland (0-9)

HIGHLAND - Great Caesar's Ghost!  Is there really a reason to play this one?  Maybe they won't.  Highland has scored only 56 points all season, but they are a heavy favorite Friday. Why?  The least publicized story of the week was Wallace's forfeit last week against Mishawaka Marian.  In the South Bend Tribune last Saturday (10-6-2007), Marian coach Reggie Glon says: We got a call shortly before school let out Friday.  Their AD (David Mitchell) said they had an internal problem within their football team and thought it was in their best interest to cancel all after school activities."  I can guarantee you Highland wins this one.

Highland 56, Lew Wallace 0

Class 4A Sectional 9:  Hammond (8-1) at Gary West Side (3-6)

GARY - Hammond is living la Vida Loca right now after a 57-21 win over Clark.  But their attention may be grabbed by the site of this week's game.  West Side has no field so this game may be played on a roped off area off 9th Street in Gary.  West Side has played Hobart, Morton and Hammond and they lost 42-24 to Hammond high earlier.  It's a competitive game even if no one is sure where they're playing it.  After the first week of the football playoffs in Gary, it's basketball season.

Hammond 51, Gary West Side 18

Class 4A Sectional 9: Hobart (6-3) at East Chicago (5-4)

EAST CHICAGO - The Cardinals had visions of the future last week when they got beat 38-6 by Griffith.  Now, here comes Hobart... and more cold, wet weather.  EC can't stop the run and they know it.  The Brickies are the stereotypical Northwest Indiana bad weather team and EC is the stereotypical NW Indiana basketball school.  Cut the grass at the Brickie Bowl, folks, because Hobart's going to need it for a couple of more weeks.

Hobart 28, East Chicago 0

Class 4A Sectional 10: Concord (6-3) at (SB) Clay (3-6)

SOUTH BEND - Clay lost in two overtimes 27-24 last week to Elkhart Central and they gave up 210 yards passing last week.  Concord throws all the time, and while they have stumbled around like they were hypnotized on defense at midseason, they are better than Clay.  But here is a game the weather could affect and an upset changes the face of this sectional dramatically.  Concord is the two-time defending sectional champ, but this is an all-new Concord team from those years.

Concord 28, Clay 14

Class 4A Sectional 10: Kankakee Valley (3-6) at (SB) Washington (0-9)

SOUTH BEND - Less stimulating than a Friday night episode of 'Men in Trees', and that's saying something.  Washington gave up 400 yards last week and they haven't scored more than 19 points all year.  KV has not played as tough a schedule as Washington and they have been shut out four times.  I was very surprised that KV lost last week and here's my upset of the week.  Washington breaks an 11-game losing streak with a home field win.

(SB) Washington 28, Kankakee Valley 20

Class 4A Sectional 10:  Plymouth (4-5) at Northridge (2-7)

WAKARUSA - Plymouth is very happy with this draw because they get the worst team in the sectional on the road in the opening round.  They know they're coming home.  Plymouth has allowed more points than they've scored, but Northridge is 9-40 in the last five years and has never won a sectional.  Never is a long, long time.

Plymouth 42, Northridge 7

Class 4A Sectional 10: Logansport (7-2) at Lowell (8-1)

LOWELL - A good match far too early in a 6-week single-elimination tournament.  Logansport has 2,500 yards rushing, tops in the North Central Conference.  Lowell has held six teams to seven points or less and their only loss is in overtime.  Logansport has faced only three winning teams and they are 1-2 against them.  The Devils' ace place-kicker David Lang (7 FGs) may have to decide this.

Lowell 17, Logansport 14

Class 5A Sectional 2:  (SB) Riley (3-6) at Goshen (6-3)

GOSHEN - Goshen is a hard-running bas weather team that has a shot to get to the sectional finals here.  This is the 10th anniversary of Riley's last winning season.  They won't be celebrating after the game.  Goshen has allowed less than 15 points a game.

Goshen 27, (SB) Riley 0

Class 5A Sectional 2:  Elkhart Memorial (5-4) at (SB) Adams (4-5)

SOUTH BEND - Adams ran for 242 yards on Penn in a 10-7 loss last week, which someone should take notice of.  Elkhart Memorial rolled up 425 yards on out-manned Northridge in a 34-7 loss last week.  This isn't an obvious pick.  I don't think Adams has enough offense to win, but it'll be close.

Memorial 20, Adams 12

Class 5A Sectional 2: Elkhart Central (5-3) at Penn (9-0)

OSCEOLA - How did Elkhart Central only play eight games?  That's too big a program to have an open date.  How did Penn, ranked No. 1 in the state, beat Adams just 10-7?  They won't beat Elkhart Central 10-7.  Penn has beaten Elkhart Central every year since footballs were square.

Penn 42, Elkhart Central 14

Class 5A Sectional 2: LaPorte (3-6) at Mishawaka (6-3)

MISHAWAKA - Mishawaka rolled up 400 yards on South Bend Washington last week, but that's not the issue here.  LaPorte lost 34-0 to Mishawaka in August, but the DAC schedule is tougher than what Mishawaka plays.  Now the Slicers go back to Mishawka to see if strength of schedule matters.  Not in this case.

Mishawaka 33, LaPorte  21

Class 5A Sectional 1: Crown Point (7-2) at Munster (3-6)

MUNSTER - Munster can throw the ball some and CP is soft against the pass.  But the Mustangs have not seen anyone who can run the ball like CP does.  The Bulldogs have led both of their losses by 10 points or more.  Munster won a solid game on the road at Kankakee Valley, but the schedule matters in this case.

Crown Point 31, Munster 7

Class 5A Sectional 1: Merrillville (8-1) at Chesterton (6-3)

CHESTERTON - The Trojans have to consider a drastic one-week offensive makeover, because this is just a bad matchup, despite the records.  The Trojans need to throw and exactly what they don't want to see is the very fast Pirate defense.  Okay, so Merrillville beat Chesterton 38-10 last week.  How much will that recent familiarity plus the switching of the game site from Merrillville (last week) to Chesterton (this week) matter in the outcome?  About 2 TDs.  About 2 TDs too few.

Merrillville 38, Chesterton 24

Class 5A Sectional 1: Michigan City (2-7) at Lake Central (5-4)

ST. JOHN - Michigan City throws the ball on everybody, but LC can run it and the cold, wet weather will favor them.  MC has some injuries that have limited them in the second half of the season and the Indians need a win to have a winning season.  LC won the earlier matchup with a late rally, but they won't need to rally this time.

Lake Central 30, Michigan City 16

Class 5A Sectional 1: Valparaiso (5-4) at Portage (5-4)

PORTAGE - Portage beat Valpo 28-25 two weeks ago and they have found an offense, scoring four TDs in each of the last three games.  Valparaiso is the only team to play CP (7-2), Merrillville (8-1) and Penn (9-0) so their 5-4 record is a little deceptive.  This is a 'flip a coin' game, but Valpo has not stopped the run all season.

Portage 27, Valparaiso 24

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Revised: October 19, 2007 .