Week 10 Picks:  2009 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith

October 22, 2009

 

 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK NINE  (9), 2009 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 1; Right - 9 = 90.0%;  Season: 85-28, 75.1%
The Pick	The Result
Clark 28, Hammond 20	Clark 43-18
North Newton 16, Bishop Noll 12	North Newton 48-16
South Central 30, River Forest 12	South Central 27-0
Wheeler 20, Calumet 8	Wheeler 42-0
Hobart 28, Highland 14	Hobart 21-20 (OT)
Munster 14, KV 12	Munster 40-13
LaPorte 28, Portage 16	LaPorte 23-21
MERRILLVILE 35, Chesterton 17	MERRILLVILLE 24-20
CROWN POINT 30, Michigan City 20	Wrong... Michigan City 35-3
LOWELL 20, ANDREAN 7	LOWELL 25-21

 

WEEK (9) NINE ANALYSIS:  This was a very easy week to pick games.  Look at games other than the 10 games I selected here.  Valparaiso-Lake Central, Griffith-East Chicago, West Side-Roosevelt, Gavit Morton, Whiting-Lake Station.  No contest contests.  Had I picked every game possible, I could have easily been 17-1.  That's why I limited it to REAL contests, although Wheeler games admittedly don't often fall into that category even though Calumet is 6-3.  I'm still surprised at the margin of victory for Michigan City over CP.  There's not 32 points difference there.  But the return of junior QB Rod Washington from the injured list made a big difference there.

 

BEST PICK OF THE WEEK?  None.  None of those games were a surprise.

 

Mr. Picker (Through the Years)

2008 (final) OVERALL:  145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%
 

LaVille 30, Culver 20


Game 2: Winamac (8-1) at Triton (3-6)

BOURBON (10-23-2009) I can figure this.  Triton isn't very good and Winamac is actually a very small 2A school that has lost only to 1A No. 1 Pioneer (9-0).  Winamac has allowed 76 points all year.  Triton should not be in post-season play.  Barring days of rain and floods with fish and life preservers on the field, the Warriors move on quickly.

Winamac 42, Triton 0


Game 3: Lake Station (0-9) at Whiting (5-4)

WHITING (10-23-2009) This is child abuse.  Lake Station has been pounded into the ground all season.  They've scored 30 points ALL YEAR.  This is the problem with the IHSAA state tournament format.  Those who don't understand high school athletics feel it's better for Lake Station to get beat again 48-0 like they did at Whiting last week than it is for Lake Station to be denied a playoff chance because of their 0-9 record.  That fundamentally goes against everything that is positive about amateur athletics.  Teams that lose every game do not want or deserve the chance to lose again.  The bigger thing is:  It is wrong for Whiting to be required to play an 0-9 team when they won more than half their games.

Whiting 49, Lake Station 0


Game 4: South Central (2-7) at West Central (1-8)

FRANCESVILLE (10-23-2009) I have liked South Central through all their stumbles this year and they showed some signs of life last week.  SC is a good running team and West Central allows 40 points a game.  And victories by West Central would be devalued because they were 1-8 during the regular season.  South Central shouldn't be in the post-season either, but they actually are better than 2-7 indicates.  Here's another 'Game of the Weak.'

South Central 35, West Central 7


Class 2A -  Sectional 25 (8 teams)
 

Game 1: North Judson (4-5) at River Forest (2-7)

HOBART (10-23-2009) The Ingots have scored only 80 points all season and have been shut out five times.  North Judson has won on the road the last two weeks.  You can't convince me that RF feels they deserve a playoff game.  North Judson has found new life and they have played a far more difficult schedule.  Unless the Judson bus gets lost on the way to Lake County.

North Judson 35, River Forest 17


Game 2: Wheeler (9-0) at North Newton (4-5)

MOROCCO (10-23-2009) The four wins for North Newton is the most in six years, but they already lost 42-0 to Wheeler earlier this year.  Playing in the state's worst football league, the Spartans won only four league games, but they earned to right to be here.  North Newton has averaged 33 points a game the last five weeks.  Watch this game to see if Wheeler is shaky in the game a long way from home.

Wheeler 28, North Newton 7


Game 3: Seeger (5-4) at Rensselaer (7-2)

RENSSELAER (10-23-2009) Another decent and fair matchup.  Rensselaer has lost only to Tipton (7-2) and West Lafayette (9-0).  Seeger has won five of their last seven with the only losses being to West Lafayette (9-0) and Fountain Central (9-0).  With bad weather on a cycle rolling in every Friday night now, Rensselaer has some powerful people up front and they can stand the rain.

Rensselaer 30, Seeger 23


Game 4: Bowman Academy (4-5) vs. Bishop Noll (4-5)

HAMMOND (10-23-2009) What has happened to Bishop Noll?  They jumped to a 3-0 record, but the last three weeks of losing and being outscored 137-26 makes it appear that they've quit faster than ex-governor Sarah Palin.  But Bowman Academy doesn't have any wins over winning teams and they've been outscored 200-58 in the last four weeks.  The difference between Bowman basketball and football is that Bowman basketball is Class 1A and Bowman football is 2A.  Bowman, in just their second year as a varsity squad, is not ready for post-season play and Noll gets a second chance here.

Bishop Noll 35, Bowman Academy 14

 

Class 3A - Sectional 17 (8 teams)

Game 1: Gavit (2-7) at New Prairie (3-6)

NEW CARLISLE (10-23-2009) Gavit lost big to all the other Hammond teams and they defeated two schools that don't really play varsity football.  New Prairie starts the season with two large 5A Duneland Conference schools.  They're serious about football.  It may snow in the South Bend area Friday night and Saturday.  Again, why are we playing this game?

New Prairie 35, Gavit 6

 

Game 2: Culver Academies (7-2) at Clark (8-1)

HAMMOND (10-23-2009) Clark has the second best record in Hammond, but they lost by 38 to Morton.  Culver has lost only to powerhouses Northwood (5-4) and Lafayette Catholic (8-0).  Cameron Copeland has 1,000 yards rushing and 20 TDs for Clark, which has an unusually effective balanced attack.  The weather could blow up the Pioneers (who need to pass) and Culver has played better teams, but I'm going with the team that doesn't have to drive two hours to play in the mud.

Clark 28, Culver Academies 24

 

Game 3: Calumet (6-3) at ANDREAN (8-1)
 

MERRILLVILLE (10-23-2009) Calumet has earned the right to be here, but they have to stop a very solid balanced attack (1,631 pass yards and 1,610 rush yards) from the 59ers.  Andrean's Richard Schmidt had 19 TD passes and the 59ers have played a far more difficult schedule than the Warriors.  Calumet has scored 12 points or less six times in nine games and their offense is somewhat fragile.

ANDREAN 28, Calumet 0

 

Game 4: Knox (4-5) at Glenn (6-3)
 

WALKERTON (10-23-2009) Glenn won this match up 28-7 early in the year, but both of these schools ended the regular season with three consecutive wins.  Glenn's lost to Judson, Jimtown and Culver Academies and they have not been dominated at any time.  The Falcons should win decisively here.

Glenn 28, Knox 14

 

Class 4A - Sectional 9 (8 teams)
 

Game 1: Griffith (5-4) at Gary West Side  (6-3)

GARY (10-23-2009) Griffith got the perfect draw.  You want to play a Gary school on the road.  No Gary team has ever won a sectional and it won't start this year.  West Side has a good team, but they're going to be snow-plowed here like Jacksonville was at New England last Sunday.

Griffith 49, West Side 0

 

Game 2: Morton (8-1) at Highland (1-8)
 

HIGHLAND (10-23-2009) Do we have to play this game?  Morton beat Highland 36-3 last week and Highland has lost every game since then.  Go buy a $5 foot long sandwich instead of paying for this $5 waste of time.  Morton earned better than to have to play a 1-8 team, but at least they'll get Griffith at home on Oct. 30.

Morton 42, Highland 0


Game 3: Hammond (5-4)  at Lew Wallace (1-7)

GARY (10-23-2009) Lew Wallace has a great team.  And as soon as the football season ends, that great team can take the court.  Hammond has a lot of offense and only a tornado and a field of quick sand can stop the purple boys here.  The Wildcats have to feel they got a great draw.  Hammond should be very excited about the playoffs even if nobody ever comes out to watch them play.

Hammond 36, Lew Wallace 12


Game 4: Hobart (2-7) at Gary Roosevelt (2-6)
 

GARY (10-23-2009) Three different teams here got the perfect 'region' draw.  A Gary team on the road in the quarterfinals, which tilts the format scale toward you getting home games after your inevitable victory.  Hobart lost seven in a row, but what they get here is two weeks to get healthy before they face Hammond high.  If there is to be an apocalyptic sectional upset... One that would stun everyone... It would be Hobart to win Sectional Nine.  Really.  No, really.

Hobart 35, Roosevelt 12

 

Class 4A Sectional 10 (8 teams)

Game 1: (SB) Riley (2-7) at Kankakee Valley (3-6) 6:30 p.m., CT

WHEATFIELD (10-24-2009) KV got an excellent draw.  What isn't immediately obvious about the Kougars is that all six of their losses have come against winning teams, three of whom (Wheeler, Lowell and Andean) are ranked in the top-20 in their class.  Riley has only beaten Gavit (1-8) and helpless Adams (1-8).  The Wildcats will get spanked like baseball's California Angels did in New York.

Kankakee Valley 27, Riley 16

 

Game 2: Concord (6-3) at Logansport  (7-2)
 

LOGANSPORT (10-23-2009) How's this game going to go?  Concord was 6-0 but they've lost three straight.  Logansport has lost three of their last five and they annually get stepped on when the playoffs begin.  I'm not sure why.  They play three 5A schools in what, truthfully, is a basketball conference.  Concord 's QB has been playing with a separated left shoulder and the Minutemen have a QB-driven attack.  If there's a surprise on opening night, here it is.

Logansport 33, Concord 28

 

Game 3: Lowell (8-1) at Plymouth (9-0)
 

PLYMOUTH (10-23-2009) Here's the game changer on opening night.  Plymouth has not trailed in any game and any time all year.  They average almost 400 yards a game and they returned 18 starters from last year's 10-1 team that lost in overtime at Lowell.  Everything is shaded against Lowell in this game, but a team with four shutouts and three sprinters in the starting lineup on offense has a chance.  Bad weather is rolling in, which will favor Plymouth and the field will be muddy.  The Devils would have to pull off the second biggest upset in school history, topped only by the 2005 state title game.  I don't really see it.

Plymouth 20, LOWELL 12


Game 4: (SB) Clay (2-7) at (SB) Washington (7-2)
 

SOUTH BEND (10-23-2009) Clay has the future Notre dame wide receiver Danny Smith, but the weather will help neutralize him.  Washington lost to Penn (7-2) and Michigan City (6-3) and they defeated Clay 44-12 in August.  This game is as close as Washington allows it to be and they can't get so full of themselves that they look ahead to taking on the Plymouth-Lowell winner.

Washington 28, Clay 13


Class 5A Sectional 2 (8 teams)
 

Elkhart Memorial (6-3) at Michigan City (6-3)

MICHIGAN CITY (10-23-2009) This can go a lot of ways.  MC is 6-1 with QB Rodney Washington in the lineup, but he's not that prolific or accurate a passer.  Memorial is 6-3 but arguably, they've lost to every good team they've played.  Memorial place kicker Tyler Keck has seven field goals and they've given up just 165 points all year.  I've got to go with the Chargers.

Memorial 24, Michigan City 20


LaPorte (6-3) at Mishawaka (8-1)
 

MISHAWAKA (10-23-2009) Mishawaka went to sleep and was blanked 24-0 by Washington last week, but I'm not buying it.  They beat Penn for the first time in 28 years and they don't care that they lost to Washington.  LaPorte is 5-0 at home and they are not the same team on the road, especially against the run.

Mishawaka 28, LaPorte 14


Elkhart Central (2-7) at (SB) Adams (1-8)

SOUTH BEND (10-23-2009) This game is as bad as the St. Louis Rams.  These two teams need to get together at the center of the field, sing camp songs, shake hands and then go home and get out of the rain.  Why are they playing this?  Both schools allow over 30 points a game.  This is a post-season match up that could only occur in Indiana.

Elkhart Central 37, Adams 13


Class 5A - Sectional 1 (8 teams)
 

East Chicago (3-6) at Portage  (4-5)
 

PORTAGE (10-23-2009) East Chicago doesn't really want to play football this year.  They have other issues and basketball is more fun for them.  Portage has played a tough schedule and they virtually get a bye until the sectional semifinals.

Portage 42, East Chicago 7


Chesterton (6-3) at CROWN POINT (3-6)

CROWN POINT (10-23-2009) A rematch of a game played just two weeks ago and won just 14-3 by the Trojans at Chesterton.  The Trojan QB Jon Watson has 16 TDs and CP has not scored a TD in two weeks.  I think CP has one big effort in them.  They aren't overmatched physically or speed wise here and the Bulldogs are relatively healthy.  If you want another upset, take CP here at home.

CROWN POINT 31, Chesterton 24

Munster (7-2) at Lake Central (1-8)
 

ST. JOHN (10-23-2009) LC has lost seven in a row and they may have suffered a key injury to runner Trevor Redlarczak.  LC lost 28-10 at Munster in August.  Munster does not play the schedule LC plays, but they've found new life under senior QB Josh Lukoshus and they'd never take their next door neighbor lightly.  No blowout here.  This is probably the team LC wanted most to draw.

Munster 23, LC 12


Valparaiso (5-4) at MERRILLVILLE (8-1)

MERRILLVILLE (10-23-2009) Valpo physically matches up well with Merrillville.  These might be the two best teams in the DAC.  The Pirates have lost only to Warren Central (7-2) and they ride an eight-game winning streak.  But Valparaiso has really good speed on offense and, as always, there's the question of senior QB Zack Livovich, who has not played all year.  If he's been declared out for the season, that has not been said out loud.  Bad weather's rolling in and that favors Valpo, but I'm staying with a shaky Pirate pick here.

MERRILLVILLE 27, Valparaiso 24