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4A No. 6 Lowell (9-1) at Plymouth (5-5) |
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Week
11 - Football Game of the Week Preview|
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4A No. 6 Lowell (9-1) at Plymouth (5-5) |
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A
USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith
10-26-2007
When:
Friday, October 26, 2007
Where:
Plymouth High School, 1 Big Red Drive, Plymouth, IN. Plymouth, Indiana surrounds the intersection
of US 30 and US 17 in Marshall County
loosely 60 miles east of Merrillville and 30
miles south of South Bend. Exit Route 17
(South). Look for the first light past
Centennial Park (a large kids' park on the
east side of 17), turn left (east) and you
are just about there.
Tickets: $5
TV/Radio: WTMK (88.5) FM
Weather: Low 50s, wet field. Good chance
of rain at some time during the game.
Parking: More than Hobart but not that
much.
If you are into high school baseball, the
Rockies baseball home (and the home of
American Legion Post 27), Bill Nixon Field,
is two blocks northeast of the high school.
If you get there late, you may end up
parking at the baseball field. Plymouth is
an older school and the parking lot is not
adequate for an event this size. I have
never been to a Plymouth home football game,
but it is my understanding they draw very
well at home. That will be tested on a cold
night with a .500 home team. Lowell figures to bring 500-1000 fans,
and while I don't want to sound like the
Chamber of Commerce, Plymouth is a nice
place. You might want to make the drive in
daylight early Friday afternoon and kill a
couple of hours enjoying the scenery before game time.
An early arrival would also solve any
parking problems.
The winner: The winner of this game will probably play at Concord on Nov. 2. Lowell will be on the road on Nov. 2 under any possible remaining scenario.
Indiana State High School Football Tournament
CLASS 4A - Sectional 9
Highland (1-9) at Griffith (7-3); Hammond [9-1] at Hobart [7-3]
CLASS 4A - Sectional 10
LOWELL [9-1] at Plymouth [5-5]; Kankakee Valley [3-7] at Concord [7-3]
CLASS 4A - Sectional 11
(FW) Wayne (3-7) at DeKalb (6-4); Bishop Dwenger (10-0) at Columbia City (1-9)
CLASS 4A - Sectional 12
Delta (9-1) at Muncie South (6-4); Jay
County (7-3) at New Castle (4-6)
OUTLOOK: Let's not worry about Indianapolis area superpower Cathedral (8-2), the defending state champion, in the lower half of the bracket. As Lowell experienced in 2005, if you get to the state finals, you WANT to play the defending state champ. The Devils should be rooting for Cathedral to manhandle everyone in the south. And whether we root for them or not, look at Sectional 14 (and 13, which would provide the sectional 14 champion's regional foe). That's a motley crew, no doubt. Cathedral is a lock to get to the 4A Southern Semistate to face Jasper (8-2), Columbus East (9-1) or Reitz (10-0), the only teams remaining in the south that have shown they are good enough to beat the Cathedral Fighting Irish, who are six-time Indiana state champions.
Lowell's path is pretty much cut and dried and they won't get any breaks. Let me short cut it for you. To get to the finals, the Devils must beat Plymouth (5-5), Concord (7-3), Hobart (7-3) and Bishop Dwenger (10-0). Griffith could possibly beat Hobart, but nobody else is going to get in the way. It also looks like Lowell will get only one more home game, the regional championship against Hobart. And that is tentative. If Griffith wins the sectional championship on the road at Hobart, Lowell would have to go to Griffith for the regional championship game. The only way Lowell could host Dwenger is if they win the regional title at Griffith. And, (sorry about this, Devil fans) the more I stare at the bracket, the more I am convinced that there is a small possibility that Lowell's home season has ended, even if they keep winning. The IHSAA state playoff system is far from perfect. There is an outside chance that Lowell will get four consecutive road games in the next four weeks.
The SERIES: As was the case last week with Logansport, there's no earthly connection between Plymouth and Lowell. The two schools have never met in any team sport. The Rockies are not having a great season, but what scares you about them is their tradition. These boys all grew up watching winning football. Before this season, Plymouth was 78-40 over the last 10 years, including a 12-2 regional title season in 1998 and an 11-1 campaign in 2005. The Rockies are the 1977 (13-0) state champions and this is a high-achieving school athletically. The Plymouth boys basketball team won the Class 3A state championship last year and was a runner-up in 2005. Baseball plays in the multimillion dollar Bill Nixon Field in Centennial Park north of the high school campus.
Plymouth, Indiana is a 156-year old town of about 10,000 people located about 30 miles south of South Bend. In 1826, a strip of land was ceded to the US government that would connect the Ohio River to Lake Michigan by way of Indianapolis, South Bend and Michigan City. Plymouth is almost exactly 100 miles due north of Indianapolis. That government road is what is now Michigan Street, a main street in downtown Plymouth, less than a dozen blocks from the high school.
While you folks going to the high school need to be concerned with the intersection of US 30 and US 17, Plymouth, Indiana is based on the intersection of US 30 and US 31, which is one mile east of US 17. US 31 is loosely the center of the state of Indiana. US 31 is a north-south road that can be driven all the way to Indianapolis and it becomes Meridian Street in Indy. (Don't ask me how I know that.) Plymouth, apparently, is not located where it is by accident.
Plymouth is, in some respects, suburban South Bend. Distanced nicely from the urban city to the north, Plymouth is classic Indiana small town architecture with old, dark, red brick downtown buildings and quiet residential neighborhoods whose only flaw is that it can occasionally be buried alive in the wintertime if the Northwest wind snow machine cranks up off Lake Michigan.
This is an old school place where folks walk through the streets to the football, basketball and baseball games. From the outside, Plymouth is a school-driven town where what happens at the high school is the center of town. When I was at an American Legion baseball game in August, I mentioned that I cover Lowell football. I didn't have to explain. The baseball people I was speaking immediately knew that Plymouth and Lowell were now rivals in 4A, Sectional 10 and I was asked what kind of team Lowell expected this fall. The message: They are into football here.
Look closely at the game-by-game Plymouth season results. The Rockies used a wide open passing offense at the start of the year and ash-canned it when they were getting spanked like they stole something. The Marshall County boys found new life with 1,000 yards rushing in the last four weeks. I suspect that locals like that style of play that we might call 'Lowell football'.
Where Lowell has the 'Inferno' a name I admit I shy away from, Plymouth's field is called the "Rockpile", a 4,200-seat fun house that is said to be one of the more difficult places to play in the entire Michiana (South Bend-Elkhart- Niles,Michigan) area. This is NOT a state of the art facility, but football fields in northern Indiana rarely are and the townspeople seem to like it that way.
Lowell and Plymouth will probably be sectional rivals for only two years. After that, these teams won't meet before the regional level and that may not happen again for several years. Lowell folks should enjoy this visit to one of the prettiest Hoosier small towns and one of its most traditional football fields. As always, how much they enjoy it will depend on the final score.
Class 4A Lowell (9-1)
Coach: Kirk Kennedy (129-65, 16 years)
Enrollment: 1,247
2006 record: 7-6*
Sectional titles: (7) 1992, 1994, 1999,
2003, 04, 05, 06
Regional titles: (3) 1994, 1999, 2005
Semistate titles: (1) 2005
State titles: (1) 2005
*Lost 33-14 to 4A state finalist Concord in
the regional championship game
Lowell Red Devils (9-1)
(W) 23-14 Crown Point (8-2)
(W) 3-0 at Morton (5-5)
(W) 38-0 at Kankakee Valley (4-6)
(L) 28-29 (OT) GRIFFITH (7-3)
(W) 39-0 HIGHLAND (1-9)
(W) 10-7 at HOBART (7-3)
(W) 24-0 Hammond (9-1)
(W) 37-19 at MUNSTER (3-7)
(W) 31-3 ANDREAN (7-3)
4A Sectional (10)
(W) 54-13 Logansport (7-3)
10-26 (F) at Plymouth (5-5)
11-2 (F) at Concord (7-3)
Class 4A
Plymouth (5-5)
Coach: John Barron (32-14, 4 years)
Enrollment: 1,050
2006 record: 8-4*
Sectional titles: (4) 1977, 1998, 2000 and
2001
Regional titles: (4) 1977, 1998, 2000 and
2001
Semistate titles: (0)
State titles: (1) 1977
*Lost 42-9 to Concord in the Class 4A
Sectional 10 title game.
2007 Plymouth Rockies (5-5) 9-game
regular season
RUSHING OFFENSE: 383-1,608 yards (4.2 per
carry, 18 TDs)
4A, No. 6 LOWELL (9-1) at PLYMOUTH (5-5)
Sagarin
computer ratings: Lowell by 24
Last week, Popi
carried the all 30 times for 203 yards. In week nine against Goshen, he
carried 27 times for 254 yards. In week eight, he carried 35 times for 165
yards. In week seven, Popi ran the ball 27 times for 117 yards.
Let's do the math: Season totals (10 games) 161 carries, 847 yards. The
Last four weeks for John Popi: 119 carries, 739 yards.
That indicates
that Plymouth totally changed their offense after an ugly 30-14 loss on the road
against a really bad Wawasee (2-8) team. Coach John Barron then went to a
version of the T-formation with QB Gordy Holloway handing off to Popi and speedy
outside threat Austin Hodges (5-7, 160). Since the change of attitude, the
Rockies are 3-1 with the only loss coming 31-29 to Northwood (7-3). You
must stop the run against Plymouth and it isn't easy. Popi is a
north-south runner who reportedly has great body lean. In other words, he
runs bent over so low you can't tend to bounce off him.
Popi is a
test of your tackling skills.
Hodges (162
carries, 917 yards) actually has more yards than Popi and he clearly has
breakaway speed. This team does not figure to win high-scoring games, but they
can stop the other team's offense by holding the ball. If the Rockies had
wanted to throw the ball, they'd have stayed with the spread offense. QB
Gordy Holloway (55-of-118, 1,002 yards, 6 TDs, 8 INTs) is not going resemble
Peyton Manning. But even though he's a low-percentage (46.7%) passer, he
can make the defense pay if you totally ignore his passing ability.
The Rockies'
offensive line is definitely better suited to run-block. The leader is
2006 junior all-stater Blaine Shafer (6-5, 275) and they will run behind him and
sophomore tight end Leniel Himes (5-10, 230) in short yardage situations.
Drew Flora (6-0, 215) and Doug Booth (5-9, 180) are other experienced linemen.
Wide receiver
Mitch Glassburn (6-2, 175) doesn't get the ball that much anymore (he had no
catches last week against Northridge), but he's capable. Himes can also
get off the line and grab the ball.
But let me repeat:
Plymouth ran the ball 47 times last week and threw two passes. Against
Northwood, a team I think is similar to Lowell, Plymouth ran the ball 46 times
and threw two passes. There is almost no such thing as a passing situation
for Plymouth anymore.
Defensively the
Rockies are quick, but fairly small. Jeremy Renz (5-7, 170) and Dustin
White (5-8, 175) are junior linebackers who lead the defense.
Glassburn
and Flora man the defensive line and I'm sure Shafer is in there on short
yardage plays. But Northwood collected 413 total yards on Plymouth two
weeks ago and Northwood QB Skyler Titus completed 17-of-22 for 221 yards.
Northridge has a bad team but their QB Chris Witten hit 12 of 27 for 116 yards
last week. That indicates to me that Plymouth blitzes everybody but the water
boy to stop the run. You can beat them deep, but they dare you to try it.
They can win a
game with a field goal because Brandon Elliott is good from 35 yards in.
Lowell is playing
at a peak. They rushed Andrean (7-2) and Logansport (7-3) in successive
home games by a combined score of 85-16. The combination of sophomore halfback
Brandon Grubbe (5-10, 170) and senior fullback Steffan Peck (5-6, 175) running
behind a revolving cast in the offensive line has sparked the Devils to three
consecutive games of 30 points or more.
The Devils'
problem has been scoring points early in the season as Grubbe (170 carries, 1182
yards) was an unknown factor playing his first few varsity games, Peck (164
carries, 739 yards) missed two games with a concussion and everybody was getting
a chance in the offensive line. Now, everybody is still playing the line,
but Lowell is attacking defensive fronts with quickness and confidence.
The coaching staff's faith in junior QB Kurt Monix has paid off in consistent
play. Monix,
whose running ability is still untapped, is 14-of-26 in his last three games for
224 yards and no interceptions, more than enough in Lowell's ground-based
attack.
On the other side
of the ball, Lowell's defense has played at the level of the 2005 state
championship team. The Devils have allowed 85 points in 10 game and they
are becoming intimidating. Senior linemen John Black (3.5 sacks), Jeff Barker
(6.5 sacks) and Joe Carlson (8 sacks) have made it very difficult to throw, and
the secondary, led by Lukas Palmer (4 interceptions) have 11 interceptions
overall.
You've got to run
the ball against Lowell and some teams have had success, although much of
Logansport's 265 yards rushing last week came on two runs early in the first
quarter and late in the fourth period. The Devils are not a big team
physically and they are not an especially good tackling team. Logansport's
fullback Matt McIntire gained 240 yards on 25 carries last week. You can
talk about how the game was never in doubt and those were 'garbage' yards.
But 240 yards is a lot of garbage against a team that has sectional and regional
championship hopes. Lowell can't give up 240 yards rushing to Plymouth or
the season will be over.
Spirit is very
high at Lowell right now, and since many of the boys played in the 2005 state
title run, the Devils have an idea of the kind of road trips they're being asked
to make.
PASSING: QB: Gordy Holloway -54-of-117, 973
yards, 6 TD,8 INTs.
RECEIVING: WR- Mitch Glassburn (6-2,175)
22-437 yards, 4 TDs; TE - Leniel Himes (6-2, 230) 13-198
yards.
RUSHING: HB - Austin Hodges (5-7, 160)
155-891 yards, 12 TDs; FB - John Popi (5-10, 185) 131-644
yards, 3 TDs;
QB - Gordy Holloway - 64 carries, 111 yards,
1 TD.
TACKLES: LB - Jeremy Renz (5-7, 170) 90
tackles (2 INTs);
DE - Mitch Glassburn (6-2, 175) 51 tackles,
2 QB sacks;
DT - Drew Flora (6-2, 215) 56 tackles (2.5
sacks).
KICKING: Punter - Mitch Glassburn - 31.5
(19 punts);
Place-kicker - Brandon Elliott (5-7, 145)
14-15 extra points, 3 FGs (longest-33 yards)
KICK RETURNS: Brandon Elliott (5-7, 145) 6
punt returns (15.5), 13 kickoff returns
(20.3);
Austin Hodges (5-7, 160) 11 kickoff
returns (29.1).
Plymouth Rockies (5-5)
(W) 35-20 at Bremen (4-6)
(L) 12-27 Rochester (9-1)
(L) 13-40 at Warsaw (6-4)
(W) 38-8 Northridge (2-8)
(L) 7-24 Elkhart Memorial (5-5)
(L) 14-30 at Wawasee (2-8)
(W) 16-10 (OT) Concord (7-3)
(W) 21-0 Goshen (7-3)
(L) 29-31 at Northwood (6-4)
4A Sectional (10)
(W) 34-6 Northridge (2-8)
10-26 (F) Lowell (9-1)
11-2 (F) at. Concord (7-3)
PLYMOUTH
(10-26-2007) -
This
spread seems too high because the computer ratings cover the entire season and
Plymouth is not the same team they were in August and September when they went
2-4 and were outscored 149-119. The Rockies have reinvented themselves as
a power running team after using a spread passing attack in six games.
Now, the Marshall County boys rely on John Popi (5-10, 185) a junior running
back who gets the ball all the time now.
Lowell senior kicker David Lang missed a couple of extra points against
Logansport (although it appeared that one of them was clearly good), but he's a
solid punter and he has three full seasons of experience. Lowell had some
special teams problems last week, but they believe they can correct that.
PLYMOUTH -
Plymouth
has to get the Lowell defense off their back early or the Rockies will spend a
lot of the night on their backs. Look for the Rockies to go deep into the
playbook for some kind of freaky option pass. Remember that halfback
Austin Hodges is the backup QB. I think Hodges takes a pitchout and throws
a long one to Mitch Glassburn for a 7-0 Plymouth lead in the first quarter.
This will be the first test of Lowell in the post-season. The Devils will
come back with a long rushing drive ending with fullback Steffan Peck scoring on
a short run.
Peck will run a short punt back deep into Plymouth territory and David Lang's eighth field goal of the year will give Lowell a 10-7 halftime lead.
Hard-running John Popi (5-11, 185) has six TDs and 500 yards rushing in the last three weeks and he will get the ball repeatedly in the third quarter, but Lowell will stop Plymouth on a fourth down play inside the Lowell 40-yard-line. The Devils will win field position on an exchange of punts and a long run by Brandon Grubbe will up the count to 17-7 late in the third period.
Here's the statistic you are looking for. In the last four games, Plymouth QB Gordy Holloway is 6-of-15 for 108 yards. Once Lowell can force Plymouth to the air, this game is over. A fourth quarter interception by senior Lukas Palmer will start a time-consuming drive that will set up Lang's second field goal of the game, which will up the count to 20-7.
Back-to-back sacks will turn the ball over late in the fourth quarter and a Lowell TD run by QB Kurt Monix will end the scoring.
Plymouth does not appear to have the power running attack that can beat Lowell, although John Popi is going to get the ball 20 times to try to prove me wrong. Popi has to be swarmed over on every play. Hodges is fast, but he does not have the kind of speed Lowell saw in David Moore of Hammond high. The Devils will be tempted to strike deep and the opportunity will be there.
But I think they stay conservative and use the clock here on the road.
Bluntly, Lowell is the only team that can beat Lowell this Friday. Never underestimate an opponent you have never faced. That's the big worry here. Strange things have been known to happen at the "Rockpile". But Lowell is not overrated. The Devils are the better team and they should eventually pull away.
LOWELL 27, Plymouth 7