Week 11 -  Football Game of the Week Preview

South Bend Washington (8-2) at Lowell (9-1)

A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith
10-30-2009
 
 

Lowell's Brandon Grubbe (6) and Ray Skamay (14) are fired up after last week's 14-6 win at Plymouth.  The numbers 14 and 6 almost certainly won't be the final numbers on the scoreboard this week as the Devils host high-scoring South Bend Washington in the Class 4A Sectional 10 semifinals. (Photo by Mark Smith)

When:  Friday, October 30, 2009 at 6:30 p.m. (CDT) -- NOTE THE EARLY STARTING TIME --

Where:  Lowell High School, 2501 Commercial AVE, Lowell, IN (3 miles west of I-65 on State Route 2).
TV/Radio/Internet: WWCA (1270) AM, WTMK (88.5) FM (live play-by-play)
Updates: WLPR(89.1) FM in NW Indiana.  NOTE: the Regional Sports Network - WWCA (1270) will replay the Lowell-Washington game Saturday morning at 9 a.m.
Highlights: Lakeshore TV football recap show, 10:30 - 11:00 p.m. on Comaast Cable Ch. 17.  Highlights on the South Bend area 10 p.m. news, 10:20 on WSBT (Ch. 22 TV) and WNDU (Ch. 16) TV.
Tickets: $5
Tickets area available 7-9 p.m. Thursday night at Lowell, but I believe they will also be available at the gate.  Washington does not have a large following for football.  This is a school that was 0-10 two years ago.  The gates at Lowell will open at 5:00 p.m.

Enrollment:  Washington 4A, 1,432;  LOWELL - 4A enrollment - 1,224
To the winner:  Lowell will either host Concord (8-3) or play on the road at South Bend Riley (3-8).  Washington would host Riley or Concord..

Weather:  The forecast has changed.  The Friday highs now are not predicted to get out of the 50s, but temps are not supposed to fall in the evening hours.  So we're dealing with the low-50s.  The larger issue will be the field.  Since the junior varsity and freshman seasons have long since ended, the last football game at Lowell was the Oct. 16 game against Andrean.  But the field was very muddy that night and heavy rains are predicted for Thursday night and early Friday morning.  Best case scenario is for clear skies but a muddy field.
The IHSAA does not allow banners and signs at state tournament games (I don't believe the cowbell police will be at Lowell Friday), but you can wear anything you want.

Parking:  The parking situation at Lowell should be good.  Washington fans are unlikely to make the two-hour drive to Lowell for this game and that's going to alleviate any parking problem for what should be an overflow Lowell crowd.  I don't know how useful the practice field east of the visitors grandstand will be after the rain that is predicted for Thursday night.  But the rain is also going to discourage fans from South Bend.  There isn't going to be more fans at Lowell Friday than there were at the Andrean game on the 16th.

The HISTORY:

FAST FOOTBALL FACT:  South Bend Washington is the original South Bend high school and before the state tournament began in 1973, the Panthers were voted the "mythical" state championships in 1937, 1939, 1943, 1944, 1953 and 1969.  Wire service state championships are about as real as the Chicago Bears playoff hopes.

SOUTH BEND:  South Bend Central, which closed in 1969, played football in 1892 and is considered the first Indiana team to play high school football.  Washington is considered the direct descendent of Central while Adams, Riley and Clay are relative newcomers.  But after a 10-2 season in 1977, Washington's program began to decline, probably due to shifts in population to the outskirts of South Bend, much like the decline in Hammond.  For the next 30 seasons, Washington won six games or less 28 times.  2008 was Washington's first winning season since 2001 and this is only the third winning season for the Panthers since 1990.

Washington has been the focus of some athletic scandal as athletes seem to transfer into Washington more often then they transfer out of the South Bend school.  Last year, a star Elkhart basketball player moved to Washington and waded through a long eligibility fight.  Washington is getting a reputation for transfers who just happen to be athletes.  This year's dispute about senior wide receiver Eric Woods transferring from Adams to Washington has fueled the Panthers "us-against-the-world" attitude.

Angry teams don't quit, though, and a win at Lowell Friday would be touted as a victory over the IHSAA as well.

4A No. 9 (SB) Washington (8-2)
Coach:  Antwon Jones (15-5)  2nd season
Enrollment: 1,391
2008 record: 7-3*
Sectional titles  (1) 1977
Regional titles  (1) 1973
State Titles (1) 1973
*lost the 4A sectional 10 quarterfinal 24-7 to Lowell on October 24, 2008

Washington Panthers (8-2)
8-22 (W) 44-12 (South Bend) Clay (2-8)
8-28 (L) 10-13 Michigan City (6-4)
9-4  (W) 63-20 Elkhart Central (2-8)
9-11 (W) 42-0 at (SB) Adams (2-8)
9-18 (W) 28-7 (Mishawaka) Marian (6-4)
9-25 (L) 14-16 at Penn (9-1)
10-2 (W) 28-9 (South Bend) St. Joseph’s (6-4)
10-9 (W) 49-7 (South Bend) Riley (3-7)
10-16 (W) 24-0 Mishawaka (9-1)

Class 4A Sectional (10)
10-23 (W) 21-20 (South Bend) Clay (2-8)
10-30 (Fri) at LOWELL (9-1)
11-6 (Fri) vs Concord (8-3) or at Riley (4-7)
 

4A No. 7 LOWELL (9-1)
Coach: Kirk Kennedy (152-68 years) 19 years
Enrollment: 1,224
2008 record: 13-1*
Sectional titles: (9) 1992, 1994, 1999, 2003-2008
Regional titles: (5) 1994, 1999, 2005, 2007, 2008
Semi state titles:  (2) 2005, 2007
State titles:   (1) 2005
* Lost 4A Northern Semi state 38-22 at Bishop Dwenger in 2008

LOWELL Red Devils (9-1)
Northwest Crossroads Conference (NCC) games in CAPS - all 7 p.m. kickoffs
8-21 (W) 19-0 Crown Point (3-7)              
8-28 (W) 34-25 at Morton (9-1)         
9-4  (W) 40-13 at Kankakee Valley (3-7)    
9-11 (W) 35-19 GRIFFITH (6-4)  
9-18 (W) 42-0 HIGHLAND (1-9) 
9-25 (W) 35-0 at HOBART  (3-7)  
Oct. 2  (W) 63-0 Hammond (7-3)        
Oct. 9  (L) 13-15 at MUNSTER (7-3)
Oct. 16  (W) 25-21 ANDREAN (7-3)

Class 4A Sectional 10
Oct. 23 (W) 14-6 at Plymouth (9-1)
Oct. 30 (F) South Bend Washington (8-2)
Nov. 6 (F) at Riley (3-8) or (home) vs. Concord (8-3)

THREE KEYS TO THE GAME:
 

1. Run for cover

Washington does like to run the ball from the Wildcat formation, but when they have a QB in the game (they alternate Nolan Dieter and Pat Borlik) in the game, they are throwing the football.  Dieter's sophomore brother Gehrig Dieter has 1,000 yards in receptions and the Panthers have four receivers in the game on most downs.  And when the Panthers get a look at Lowell's secondary on tape, they will throw even more.  The Devils' small defensive backs need to tackle securely and they have to grab interceptions when they are available because they will be.  The Panthers QBs do not have high completion percentages, but there is no way to stop every pass play they will try.  Washington is 184 of 347 passing (29 TDs) in 10 games.  That's 34 passes every game.  The Panthers want a 'track meet' where you score quickly and give the ball back to them.

A strength of alternating QBs is that, if the pass rush gets a hard hit on your QB, you have a new arm in there immediately.  That could be an issue against Lowell, which knocked out Plymouth's Gordy Holloway for a series last week.  The weakness of Washington alternating QBs is that Lowell may change coverages and personnel after the Washington QB enters with the play.  The new QB will come in somewhat blind because the play will be called based on tendencies or what Lowell had on the field for the last play.  The Devils have to watch out that SBW doesn't bring in a QB, but goes to the 'Wildcat' with Eric Woods.  Eric who?

2. Eric Woods
 

Woods is a star wide receiver who has been declared eligible by the IHSAA after a season-long dispute about a transfer from Adams.  Woods (5-11, 195) scored on a 46-yard punt return last week in Washington's 21-20 win over Clay and he ran a half dozen times from the "Wildcat" (no quarterback) formation.  He has no 'numbers' so I don't know how good he is or what shape he's in.  Woods scored on a 46-yard punt return last week and a 68-yard TD pass the week before.  He has four TDs in the last three games, the only three he has played this year.  What effect he'll have on Washington isn't clear because he's spent all but three games of his career at Adams.

But you probably don't go to court to get an average player on the field.  Woods is said to be an impact wide receiver and I would have to guess that he will be a factor in this game.

3. Lowell must complete some passes.
 

No one has rushed for more than 150 yards against Washington in 10 games.  In truth, no one had rushed for more than 130 against Plymouth until last week.  But the Panthers will bring nine men to the line of scrimmage and dare Lowell to throw the ball.

Washington plays wild games.  They've lost 10 fumbles, 15 pass interceptions and 734 yards in penalties.  But they have gained 3,600 total yards.  Lowell has to control the ball to take the Panthers' craziness out of the equation.  But even with Brandon Grubbe (4,700 career yards) to run, Lowell eventually needs to complete a couple passes to back the Panther defense off the line.

The formation I would fear from Lowell is Brandon Grubbe in the slot and Cole Midgett split wide on the strong side of the field with Joe Bell as the tight end.  That formation would allow Ray Skamay a lot of running and passing freedom.  Once the Devils compete a big pass play, they can go back to running the ball and Lowell will have the Washington defense where they want them.

The Bottom Line...

SAGARIN RATINGS:  Lowell by 3-1/2
 

Washington has played Penn (9-1) and Mishawaka (9-1), so Lowell doesn't have any strength of schedule edge here.  Both Lowell (16th) and Washington (26th) are rated in the top-30 in the state in any class.  Cathedral (2nd) and Bishop Dwenger (4th) are the top-rated 4A teams.
 

LOWELL (10-30-2009) At times Lowell-Griffith (or Lowell-Plymouth) games are dull as the two teams duel at the line of scrimmage and wear each other down.  This game is not going to be like that.  Washington is not Plymouth or Griffith and they will not try to establish the run.  Washington will throw consistently early if the conditions allow it.  Who am I kidding?  Washington will throw even if the conditions don't allow it.  They have 29 passing TDs and 12 rushing TDs.  Most of the rush TDs are QB draw plays.

The Panthers take an early lead as Woods and Dieter will catch TDs.  But after a long TD to Cole Midgett early, Lowell will run the ball successfully as the night goes on.  The field conditions will make it tough to run routes and throw accurately.  I'm looking for Lowell to make more use of misdirection plays (they tried one at Plymouth that would have worked if they hadn't fumbled it) early in the game to slow Washington's defensive pursuit.

The Panthers will throw 40 times and they'll gain 200 to 250 yards passing.  But, as they fall behind, they will try to throw long and strike quickly, which will make them more vulnerable to the pass rush.  Washington will turn the ball over four times.  The key statistic here is that Washington has had 15 passes intercepted this season.  The Devils were down 13 points to Morton and 11 to Andrean before rallying to win both times.  This game will be like those games.

Look for Brandon Grubbe and Ray Skamay to combine for five TDs in a come-from-behind victory after which no one will ask for their ticket money back.

LOWELL 42, (SB) Washington 28