Week 11 Picks:  2004 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

October 27, 2004

WEEK TEN (10) ANALYSIS:

South Central is just better than River Forest. West Lafayette (3-7) just got lucky. Wawasee may be much stronger and could challenge East Noble on Nov. 5. KV had key injuries the week of the Highland game and had another one in the first quarter. Portage and Chesterton could have gone either way and I don't understand how Elkhart Memorial beat Mishawaka.

A total of 23 out of 30 isn't that great. This next week (just like the 2^nd week of the regular season) is among the most predictable of the season because teams have established themselves. This week is interesting but the truth really comes out next week in the sectional championship games.

(Week One) 11 of 14, 78.5%

(Week Two) 8 of 13, 61.5%

(Week Three) 8 of 12, 66.7%

(Week Four) 11 of 12, 91.7%

(Week Five) 10 of 12, 83.3%

(Week Six) 7 of 12, 58.3 %

(Week Seven) 8 of 12, 66.7%

(Week Eight) 7 of 12, 58.3%

(Week Nine) 8 of 12, 66.7%

(Week Ten) 23 of 30, 66.7%

REGULAR SEASON: 77-111, 69.4%

PLAYOFFS: 23-30. 76.6%

2004 TOTAL: 100 of 141, 70.1%

WEEK ELEVEN (11), Sectional Semifinals: Oct. 29, 2004

Class 1A - Sectional 33

Lafayette Catholic (6-4) 51, Attica (6-4) 21

LAFAYETTE – Catholic QB Thomas Haan (167 of 277, 2,728 yards, 34 TDs, 7 INTs) is the state's leading passer and Ryan Svenstrup (69 - 1,240, 16 TDs) is the state's top receiver. Unless it rains hard, Attica, which has had a good season under old Highland and CP coach Brad Smith, is in the wrong place on the wrong night.

Seeger (10-0) 21, Pioneer (10-0) 14

WEST LEBANON - Seeger appears to be more of a perimeter team while Pioneers runs between the tackles. There's not a lot to choose from here. Seeger averages 50 points a game but Pioneer has played a slightly tougher schedule. The winner here has no guarantees because Lafayette Catholic is next. Seeger all-time leading rusher Eli Cook (24 TDs) decides this game with a late TD.

West Central (8-2) 28, South Central (5-5) 20

FRANCESVILLE - This game will be close because West Central isn't great at stopping the run, giving up 225 yards to Lake Station last week. West Central beat South Central 28-18 on Oct. 8. An upset is possible here as WC may be looking ahead to Whiting.

Whiting (10-0) 34, LaVille (5-5) 21

LAKEVILLE – Whiting probably will not have Sixto Arredondo (163-920 yards, 28 TDs) in the backfield after Oct. 15 injury. Whiting has allowed 78 points in the last four weeks against less-than-great teams. But LaVille eliminated the Oilers last year and Whiting wont be looking ahead. On a warm night, they can still put 5 TDs on the board.

2A Sectionals

Glenn (7-3) 20, Fairfield (6-4) 13

WALKERTON - Glenn led 40-0 at the half last week of a 47-6 win over Prairie Heights. The Falcons are at home and have played a slightly better schedule.

Jimtown (7-3) 21, Eastside (8-2) 20

BUTLER - This has not been Jimtown's greatest season but the tradition is there. Eastside needed an onside kick to win at Bremen 35-31 and their luck runs out this time.

North Judson (9-1) 28, North Newton (6-3) 6

NORTH JUDSON – The weaker team is always going to have difficulty winning after the bye week. Judson is probably among the top 5 2A teams state wide. North Newton is building towards 2005.

Rensselaer (10-0) 30, Winamac (5-5) 7

WINAMAC – Rensselaer has lost halfback Andrew Malone (116 carries, 867 yards, 8 TDs) to injury and it's not certain if he's out for the year. Winamac is home but they barely slipped by Wheeler 35-21 last week. The Bombers have scored 20 or more points in every game this year.

3A - Sectionals

Twin Lakes (6-4) 14, Tipton (7-2) 12

MONTICELLO - Here's Tipton, coming off a week off. Tipton beat Twin Lakes 22-20 on Oct. 8 with 253 yards rushing. At home, the Indians get even.

Hamilton Heights (9-1) 35, West Lafayette (3-7) 0

ARCADIA – This is a bad matchup. Hamilton Heights has averaged 40 points a game the last six weeks and West Lafayette upset Frankfort 28-20 last week. Hamilton is much bigger and stronger.

Griffith (8-2) 41, Morton (4-6) 14

HAMMOND - The weather favors Morton's throwing game but the talent level favors Griffith, which smoked Morton 50-20 in September. Morton gave up 447 yards rushing in that game.

Andrean (8-2) 49, Gavit (5-5) 28

HAMMOND - These teams have not met this year and both have 2,000-yard passers. With the temperatures in the mid 60s at game time, the points will go up on the scoreboard. But Gavit will wear down as the game goes on.

4A Sectionals

East Noble (10-0) 28, Plymouth (8-2) 14

PLYMOUTH – The weather makes it close. East Noble is a big, ground-based team with a 260-pound offensive line (on average) and the state's leading rusher in HB Konrad Mundon. Plymouth has a mutilple offense and they are at home. An upset is possible here.

But only possible.

Wawasee (9-1) 42, DeKalb (3-7) 21

SYRACUSE – This has been a bad year for DeKalb, which beat weak South Bend Washington 35-7 last week. Wawasee may not have played a great schedule but they messed up Concord 48-9 last week.

Highland (5-5) 31, Gary West Side (6-4) 12

GARY - West Side peaked at midseason and Highland can hang with teams as long as QB Andrew Helmer is ready.

Lowell (8-2) 26, Hobart (9-1) 10

LOWELL – These teams have met three times in the last two years and Hobart has scored a total of 19 points. Lowell, at home, has made changes since that game, and clearly has something to prove. The Brickies have won nine in a row but this is their fourth consecutive road game.

5A Sectionals

Elkhart Memorial (4-6) 16, (SB) Clay (6-4)

ELKHART – Even when they should win, pick against South Bend city schools. Memorial may be having a late season revival after a 10-1 year in 2003.

Penn (9-1) 38, LaPorte (7-3) 14

LaPORTE – Three major injuries for LaPorte takes away any chance of an upset here. I don't know if LaPorte has ever beaten Penn.

Valparaiso (6-4) 20, Portage (7-3) 17

PORTAGE – When they met earlier, Portage won 14-13 so obviously, there's not much difference between these two teams. The return of kicker Kyle Prow gives Valpo a 3-point edge.

Merrillville (9-1) 28, Crown Point (4-6) 20

CROWN POINT – Not only has CP beaten Merrillville 7-3 this year, the Bulldogs have beaten Merrillville 3 years in a row, all upsets. On a warm night, the score will be high but the size of Merrillville should wear on CP as the game goes on.

Down the road in Class 3A...

Bishop Chatard (8-2)

INDIANAPOLIS – Bishop Chatard has not won three state titles by accident. They understand that losses to champions can make you a champion. The two losses they have had are to Roncalli, Indiana's defending 4A champ, and Elder, Ohio's defending 6A champ. Chatard led (Indianapolis) Washington 58-0 at the half on the way to a 72-0 victory in the Sectional 22 quarterfinals last week.

Chatard has been without halfback Dray Mason (5-9, 183) , who gained 2,500 yards last year, and had been out with a sprained ankle. He's back now and Chatard is a prohibitive favorite over Crawfordsville (3-7) this Friday (10-29-4). Heritage Hills (10-0) awaits in Southern 3A Semistate while Hamilton Heights (9-1), Griffith (8-2) and Andrean (8-2) are getting ready in the north. But Chatard is going to have to be beaten BEFORE they get indoors on the superfast RCA Dome carpet. They could be had outdoors on a bad weather night but the Trojans' defensive speed is significant.

FB-DE Frank Halliburton (6-2, 220) has started for two consecutive state champions while two-way tackle Fred Moore (6-0, 280) has been a constant the last two years. Senior QB Tony Rago was 2-of-2 for 56 yards and two TDs last week but he rarely has to throw.

Junior Tyler Kleindschmidt (6-0, 150) gained 126 yards on 17 caries last week and 108 yards on 11 carries the week before in a 55-6 win over Howe.

Chatard uncovered another star this year in sophomore running back-flanker Joe Holland (6-2, 185) who carried 14 times for 125 yards on Oct. 8 in a 56-19 win over Indianapolis Northwest. Mason (5-8, 175) gained 120 yards on four carries (all in the first quarter) against Howe.

Either all these running backs are all awesome or Chatard's line is so good that anybody can run behind them. It is probably the latter. Except for sophomore Justin Robinson (6-0, 265), the line is all seniors including Moore and Corey Crawford (6-2, 230). It's hard to tell how healthy Mason (203 carries, 2,555 yards, 43 TDs in 2003) is from box scores. He carried seven times for 57 yards against Washington and just four times the week before. But those games were so lopsided there was no reason to continue playing him.

It appears Chatard is buying him rest time by dominating easy foes.

The Trojan defense is overpowering. They allowed Washington just three yards rushing and Howe was held to 53. Northwest had 86 yards on Oct. 8 and Indianapolis Scecina had 73 yards on 36 carries on Oct. 1.

Only Cathedral (6-4), the defending 4A champion, ran on Chatard, getting 221 yards on 42 carries. Ohio's 6A defending champion, Cincinnati Elder gained 107 yards on 28 carries. Chatard has allowed 101 points all year but they shut out 5A Evansville Reitz 35-0 and embarrassed 5A Indianapolis Northwest 56-19.

This school is the reigning dynasty of Indiana football. Bishop Chatard has won seven state title in 1983, 1984, 1997, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2003. The win last week, obviously, was their 19^th state tournament win in a row. This is an 837-teen school the size of Andrean, battling the other Indy Catholic schools for players, although we're not supposed to say that. While East Chicago and other schools whine about being an independent, Chatard uses that status to play the best competition they can find (Reitz and Elder are over 100 miles from Indianapolis) to get set for the playoffs.

Certainly Heritage Hills (10-0, and 127-11 over the last 11 years) has a shot to beat Chatard and the northern schools have an outside chance. But Bishop Chatard has not lost to a 3A school since a 29-28 loss to then-3A Roncalli in October of 2000.

The bottom line is, until someone else plays the schedule that Chatard, which has won 45 of their last 48 games, plays, chances of beating them are as fake as Ashley Simpson's singing.

3A No. 2 Bishop Chatard (8-2)

14-1 in 2003, 15-0 in 2002, 11-4 in 2001

8-20-4 (W) 49-0 - 5A (Indianapolis) Broad Ripple (4-6)

8-27-4 (W) 35-0 at 5A (Evansville) Reitz (6-4)

9-3-4 (L) 7-10 at 4A (Indianapolis) Roncalli (8-2)

9-10-4 (W) 24-21 at 4A (Indianapolis) Cathedral (6-4)

9-17-4 (L) 15-21 at 6A (Cincinnati) Elder (6-3)

9-24-4 (W) 53-7 - 4A Whiteland (3-7)

10-1-4 (W) 42-7 - 2A (Indianapolis) Scecina (4-6)

10-8-4 (W) 56-19 at 5A (Indianapolis) Northwest (8-2)

10-15-4 (W) 55-6 - 3A (Indianapolis) Howe (0-10)

3A Sectional 22

10-22-4 (W) 72-0 – (Indianapolis) Washington (2-7)

10-29-4 – Crawfordsville (3-7)

11-5-4 at Danville (7-3) or (Indianapolis) Brebeuf (9-1)

3A Regional

11-2-4 - vs. Mississinewa (7-3) or New Palestine (8-2)

3A Southern Semistate

11-19-4 - vs. Heritage Hills (13-0)

3A State Championship game

11-27-4 - vs. Griffith (12-2), Andrean (12-2) or Hamilton Heights (13-1)

12 noon – RCA Dome - Indianapolis

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Revised: October 27, 2004 .