Week 11 Picks:  2005 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

October 26, 2005

WEEK-10 ANALYSIS:  Most of the teams that are supposed to win in the first week of the playoffs do win as was the case last week. One who didn't was Andrean, which, in retrospect was not ready for the playoffs and was beaten by a motivated Morton team 24-10. North Newton has three key players injured and was no match for Noll. LaVille was better than expected against Lake Station and Calumet found out that winning four games is not a revival as they lost to winless Hammond high in overtime. It could happen to anybody. Downstate, Class 4A No. 1 unbeaten Columbus East got beat by 15 points and started the basketball season.

WEEK 10 (2005) PIX recap

WEEK 10: 21 of 27, 77.7%

WEEK 9: 7 of 11, 63.6%

WEEK 8: 9 of 12, 75.0%

WEEK 7: 10 of 12, 83.3%

WEEK 6: 9 OF 13, 69.2%

WEEK 5: 10 OF 14, 71.4%

WEEK 4: 9 OF 12, 75.0%

WEEK 3: 7 of 13, 53.8%

WEEK 2: 11 of 15, 73.3%

WEEK 1: 16 of 20, 80%
2005 Season: 109 of 149, 72.2%

2004 Overall: 156 of 216, 72.2%

WEEK 11 (ELEVEN) PREDICTIONS

Sectional Semifinals, 10-28-2005

Class 1A    Whiting (9-0) 28, LaVille (4-6) 14

LAKEVILLE -  A good weather night will make it easier to play on the road. LaVille is a running team and a good warmup for West Central on Nov. 4.  LaVille can't stop the run, though and that's where the Oilers may attack them far away from home.  This is a dangerous place to play and a long drive on a Friday night.


Class 1A    West Central (9-1) 42, South Central (5-5) 6

UNION MILLS - Here's a mismatch. South Central dosnet have the manpower to stop West Central.   WC gave up 300 yards passing to South Newton's Eric Watt but unless Watt transferred to South Central this week, that isn't going to mean much. South Central is 5-5 but they have not defeated any team that is better than 3-7 this year.


Class 2A    Winamac  (3-6) 24, Bishop Noll (4-6) 14

HAMMOND  -  Nobody should get a bye in the state tournament.  I'm not sure Noll can come up with a solid game two weeks in a row. Winamac doesn't have any good wins, but they have played strong teams and averaged 25 points per game.  I think the bye helps a lot this late in the year. Noll got a great draw, but they aren't very good.
     

Class 2A    Rensselaer (9-1) 14, North Judson (6-4) 12

NORTH JUDSON - Flip a coin. Judson's record is deceptive because they have played strong teams. Rensselaer won the first meeting 24-0, but Judson is better now. Rensselaer QB Jacob Kiger is the kind of late game playmaker that Judson does not have.  Does anybody on either side know that Jimtown (a Nov. 11 foe) has shut out four teams in a row?

Class 3A    Morton (7-3) 33, Hammond (1-9) 14

HAMMOND - This is a big rivalry game that Morton has to take seriously.  Hammond has played with surprising spirit in the last two weeks.  But let the record show... They still haven't won a game in regulation time.  They don't have the players to beat Morton, but expect another spirited game.

Class 3A    Griffith (10-0) 56, Gavit (3-7) 0
HAMMOND - No contest. Gavit does not have the attack to score on Griffith. They rushed for 355 yards against Wirt last week and they predominantly run the ball. That's just not the way to attack Griffith.  There just isn't enough defense either. This is such a soft sectional and it will only get softer if one or two of the Gary schools (Wallace, Roosevelt and West Side) drop to 3A in two years.  It's hard for Griffith to get caught looking ahead because there is no tough game on the horizon.

Class 3A    Western (8-2) 28, Frankfort (5-4) 14

KOKOMO -  Here's another bye team on the road. Western lost 16-7 to Frankfort 10 weeks ago and after winning eight of the last nine, they get Frankfort at home.  That's like somebody stealing your dog when you're a kid and you get a chance to pick him up some winter night 10 years later when he's a hitchhiker.  You're not stopping.  Frankfort has split their past eight games although all four losses have been to teams with a record of 7-3 or 8-2.  Western's schedule is softer than cheese, but the only loss they've had in two months is to 2A power Lewis Cass (10-0).  You've got to go with Western here.

Class 3A    Twin Lakes (8-2) 28, Hamilton Heights (6-4) 20

HAMILTON -  This is a real good match as Twin Lakes has won five in a row after a mid-season 21-9 loss to Rensselaer (9-1).  Hamilton Heights plays a more difficult schedule. The losses are to four winning teams including Cass (10-0) and 5A Carmel. If Twin Lakes wins they go home to play Western and then Griffith (10-0).  The Indians may get top running back Evan Mitchell (43 caries, 424 yards, 8TDs) back in two weeks. Strange thing is, since Mitchell's been out (fractured fibula - leg), TL is undefeated.  But I don't know how good they are (rated 10th state wide) without him.

Class 4A    Hobart (5-5) 42, Gary West Side (4-6) 6

GARY  -   No contest.  Hobart beat West Side 50-6 10 weeks ago and they will beat them again badly.  This is a big break for the Brickies if they use it correctly.  I would sit out as many injured players (like lineman Richard Mitchell) as I thought I could get away with and I'd pull the starters after a half.  Hobart's looking at a trip to two-time sectional champ Lowell on Nov. 4 and they will probably work two weeks on Lowell and ignore West Side, which has not defeated an Indiana team outside of Gary in four years. 


Class 4A    Lowell (6-4) 30, Kankakee Valley (7-3) 14

LOWELL  -  A natural geographic rivalry (KV is the school immediately southeast of Lowell) but a one sided one. The Kougars are 0-10 against Lowell all time.  But the Kougars' seven wins is the most in school history (KV football is 36 years old) and they will bring a lot of juice up north to face the Devils.  Lowell has 1,400-yard rusher Scott Gray running out of the I-formation while KV has 1,100-yard HB Dustin Wilson running out of KV's option attack.  KV is good for a half or maybe three quarters, but Lowell has played a much tougher schedule, they are slightly bigger and they are at home.

Class 4A    Wawasee (8-2) 30, Concord (7-3) 28

ELKHART -  Concord averages 28 points a game and Wawasee averages 32 points a game.  Concord's Bob Cira completed 19 of 29 for 272 yards in a 37-7 rout of overrated Angola, while Wawasee's Joe Leach hit 7 of 17 for 213 yards in a 36-14 win over Washington.  On a good weather night there is absolutely no chance of this being a low-scoring game. Both teams are loaded up at the skill positions, but Wawasee basically got off easy last week playing a South Bend school. Also, Wawasee played six post-season games last year. They probably understand the situation they are in on the road.
   

Class 4A    Plymouth (10-0) 31, East Noble (8-2) 20

KENDALLVILLE - One of the premier games in the state as Plymouth's high-flying offense welcomes in the a visitor from the 'East.'  EN has to run the ball with HB Konrad Mundon or Plymouth's 34 ppg offense will smoke them out. The Knights have won seven in a row after losses to Concord (7-3) and Homestead (8-2). Section nine favorite Lowell is watching this game very closely. The Devils lost to East Noble in the 2003 regional. But if Lowell has to play Plymouth they will want to watch how EN and Mundon do against the sometimes suspect Plymouth defense.

Class 5A    Penn (8-2) 24, Mishawaka (9-1) 14

MISHAWAKA - The state's top game as Mishawaka and Penn average 35 points a game.  These are arch rivals, but Penn hasn't lost to Mishawaka in 30 years.  Penn won the first meeting this year 41-35 in overtime and they were lucky to do so.  Emotions will run very high and a lot of people are saying that Penn's run of 10 consecutive sectional titles is coming to an end.  It may be, but not on this night.  The key is that Penn has played South Bend Adams (0-10) two weeks in a row. The Kingsmen are at home and they've obviously been working on Mishawaka for three weeks.

Class 5A    LaPorte (9-1) 37, Elkhart Memorial (4-6) 14

ELKHART -  Memorial can run the ball and LaPorte will have some trouble stopping that.  But LaPorte can throw to a squadron of receivers and Memorial will have a lot of trouble stopping that.  Memorial, which has four wins against .500 or below teams, needs a snowstorm to stop LaPorte Friday. Weather forecast. 50 degrees and dry. A fitting Memorial.

Class 5A    Crown Point (10-0) 51, Chesterton (3-7) 21

CROWN POINT  -  This game is a defensive coordinator's nightmare.  Chesterton lost 34-17 at home to CP three weeks ago and has not beaten a winning team all year. The Trojans are an emerging force on offense with QB Alex Beierwalter, who has thrown for 2,000 yards. But they have little running game and that keeps the defense on the field.  CP, which has the No. 1 scoring defense among 5A teams state wide, has averaged 40 points per game since QB Matt Jansen came off the disabled list.  Chesterton allows 31 points a game.  This one is like last weeks' BYU-Notre Dame game. You knew the scoreboard would be lighting up and the visitors could do nothing about it.

Class 5A    Merrillville (8-2) 31, Michigan City (6-4) 14

MICHIGAN CITY -  HB Ryan Fics (1,800 yards rushing) and the MC running game faces their greatest test against the Pirates, who have the No.2 scoring defense among 5A schools.  Merrillville beat Michigan City 42-7 six weeks ago and 1,000-yard rusher James Aldridge (6-2, 220) is a force to be reckoned with. The Pirates, who have 14 interceptions in their last five games, have the four shutouts and have held six teams to seven points or less.  Michigan City averages 26 points per game, but they know this could be their Alamo so they'll fire every gun they have before they get scalped.

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Revised: October 26, 2005 .