Week 11 Picks:  2006 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

October 27, 2006

WEEK (10) TEN RECAP:  Not a lot of surprises in week 10 and there usually aren't any.  Valpo couldn't finish the upset of Portage and Lew Wallace had nothing against Roosevelt.  But winless Hammond came through with their first win of the year.  Few who had seen both teams thought KV would beat Lowell.  How many times can Penn beat South Bend Adams?  LaPorte came back strong as expected and Rensselaer dominated a Knox team that had thought they had a good year.  What did Wirt do wrong to have to play Andrean in the state tournament?  Merrillville beating East Chicago is getting as old as Lou Pinella.

BIGGEST WINNER - WEEK (10) TEN:  Gary Roosevelt.  I know the team they beat, Lew Wallace, is 0-10 and I know they had beaten LW during the regular season.  But Gary Roosevelt becomes the final team in the state of Indiana that was around when the tourney began 34 years ago, to win their first IHSAA state playoff game.  And, in the ultimate irony, the final score was 34-0.

RUNNER UP: WEEK (10) TEN:  Calumet.  I thought that Clark was a big favorite in this game, but Calumet came out with their most impressive offensive output this year.  Maybe they caught Clark overconfident, but the reward could be a trip to the sectional finals if Calumet can get by Hammond (1-9).

WEEK 10 (2006) PIX recap

WEEK 1:  9 of 13 = 69.1%
WEEK 2:  10 of 15 = 66.7%
WEEK 3:  11 of 13 = 84.6%
WEEK 4:  11 of 14 = 78.6%
WEEK 5:  9 of 12 = 75.0%
WEEK 6:  10 of 13 = 76.9%
WEEK 7:  11 of 12 = 91.7%
WEEK 8:  10 of 11 = 83.3%
WEEK 9:  7 of 12 = 58.3%
WEEK 10:  19 of 24 = 79.1%

2006 Regular Season: 88 of 115 = 76.5%
2006 Playoffs:  19 of 24 = 79.1%
2006 Season Overall to date:  107 of 139 = 76.9% 
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

Northwest Indiana
WEEK 11 (ELEVEN) PICKS, 10-27-2006

(10-27-2006)  WEEK (11) ELEVEN -  Week two of the playoffs is little better than week one.  We still have some broke-down players who are just happy to still have a game.   But some big showdowns are on tap.  The early confrontations are in the 5A northern bracket where perennial power Snider (8-2) travels to North Central Conference co-champion Marion (9-1) and down in Hamilton County, where superpower Hamilton Southeastern (10-0) faces a major test against powerful Lafayette Jefferson (9-1).  The giants walk in 2A where No. 1 Lewis Cass (10-0) faces the moment of truth at No. 2 Heritage (10-0), which beat Manchester (3-7) in August by the score of 81-7.  A pivotal match in 1A sends No. 2 Lafayette Catholic (10-0) and 6-foot-6 basketball star turned wide receiver Will Hubertz (60 catches, 903 yards) on a road trip to No. 6 Seeger (9-1).  In 3A the country boys from Northwood (6-4) hit the road to play the rich kids at Culver Academy (8-2) and hard-hitting Mishawaka Marian (8-2) travels to face 'under the radar' powerhouse New Prairie (9-1).

IN THE CLOSET:   Games that will have absolutely no bearing on the state title picture but are still fun will be 3A upset master Hammond (1-9) at Calumet (3-7).  Hammond has gone 0-9 the last two years but has won in week 10.  The reward new school Fishers (1-9) gets for winning its first game ever is to host top-10 power Carmel (8-2).  The parting gift Columbia City (1-9) gets for finally getting on the board is to walk the plank at Summit Athletic Conference (SAC) champion Bishop Dwenger (9-1).

WHITING - The Oilers won a big one at Culver last week and they should enjoy a night by the lake against a West Central team that gives up far too many (24 ppg.) points.  WC has been shut out four times and they will be lucky to get on the board.  Only Whiting and QB Jeremy Dumezich (111-182, 1,780 yards, 22 TD passes) can beat Whiting on this night.  They have to be overconfident to lose here.
                (1A)   Whiting (8-2)  30,  West Central (4-6) 14


KENTLAND - Rain Friday could slow Eric Watt, the Rebels all-time leading passer who was 16-of-22 for 325 yards and seven TDs in a 51-20 win over LaVille last week.  South Central can run the ball with Cody Williams (8 carries, 171 yards).  They had 550 yards rushing last week but that was against River Forest (0-10).  This could be close but SC has played River Forest in each of the last two weeks and this is too big a step up.
                (1A)   South Newton (10-0)  35,  South Central (5-5) 7


RENSSELAER - The Bombers got the defense in gear last week with a shutout of Knox, but they may need a shutout this year.  The Bombers don't have the kind of attack that can do damage here.  Judson won an earlier meeting 3-0.  But this is a major rivalry and Rensselaer, at home, will not go down without a fight.
                (2A)   North Judson (9-1)  16,  Rensselaer (4-6)  8


HAMILTON  - I think Noll will underestimate this game.  Guerin is Bishop Noll.  Look at some of the the losses:  Lafayette Catholic (10-0), Indianapolis Lutheran (7-3) and 4A Pendleton Heights (6-4).  This is why I think the state tournament should play on Friday and Saturday.  Guerin is 2-1/2 hours from Bishop Noll and they play on Friday night.  Talk in the north is about Noll HB Tony Hollingsworth, but Guerin HB Danny Iafrato (5-11, 165) ran 24 times for 217 yards last week in the 37-26 win over Winamac, a game they led 37-14.  Guerin's Eagles have played a much tougher schedule than Bishop Noll.
                (2A)   Guerin (4-6)  28,  Bishop Noll (7-3)  27


GOSHEN - Word is, this could be a surprise team in 2A.  The Fairfield Falcons have only allowed 46 points all season and they have six shutouts.  Fairfield has a 20-6 win over 3A Culver Academy (8-2) and a 36-0 win over 3A Lakeland (7-3).  I have never actually seen them play, but Eastside has.  Fairfield, which was 0-10 four years ago, buried Eastside 45-12 in September.  I don't know how this rematch can go a different way.
                (2A)  Fairfield (10-0)  40,  Eastside (8-2) 20


GARRETT - The Railroaders are going to need to come into the jet age here quickly because defending state champion Jimtown has lost only to Northern States Conference (NSC) champ New Prairie (9-1) and Northern Lakes Conference (NLC) champ Concord (10-0).  The Jimmies' quick defense smoked John Glenn 35-12 last week.  Garret has a lamer offense than the Detroit Tigers.  This game won't last long.
                (2A)  Jimtown (8-2)  28,  Garrett (4-6)  0


WEST LAFAYETTE  - This is hard to figure.  WL got a bye last week.  They've had 13 days off, which makes them very unpredictable.  West Lafayette broke a 5-game losing streak last week with a 21-12 victory over Tipton.  The Red Devils have lost three games by five points or less.  But Frankfort bombed North Montgomery (8-2) on the final day of the season by 15 points.  The bye is a factor.  Nobody should get a bye.
                (3A) Frankfort (6-3)  28,  West Lafayette (4-6)  14


KOKOMO - Hamilton Heights is always the same.  The Huskie dogs run with a pro-style passing and a top QB.  This year its Justin Boser (126 of 215, 2,111 yards, 17 TDs, 7 INTs).   Western has lost only to Frankfort (6-3) and 2A No. 1 Lewis Cass (10-0).  On the road, I'm going against form here to take Hamilton by a field goal, largely because Hamilton has played a tougher schedule (including Cass and 5A No. 4 Carmel) and lost 21-20 to Western earlier this year.  Hamilton Heights has won six consecutive sectional titles.
                (3A) Hamilton Heights (7-3)  29,  Western (8-2)  26


GARY - This one is just for fun because a combined Calumet-Hammond all-star team would be blown out by either Griffith or Andrean from the other side of this bracket.  The Warriors shocked Clark last Friday, but Hammond's 22-7 win over Gavit really wasn't a surprise.  Calumet won last week even though they were out gained 432-313.  Hammond can throw the ball and run wide with David Moore (147 carries, 1047 yards, 7 TDs) and they can win again.
                (3A)  Hammond (1-9)  34,  Calumet (3-7)  32


GRIFFITH - The Panthers have stumbled in the last two weeks, losing to Hobart by 11 and rallying late to beat Morton 40-21.  But I don't think Andrean is near 100% physically on defense and they can't score 40 points on the Panthers.  Griffith has dominated three of the last four meetings and has scored 161 points in the last four meetings against Andrean.   The Niners need four turnovers to win.
                (3A) Griffith (9-1)  34,  Andrean (8-2)  17


ELKHART  - The scariest team this side of 5A, Concord has QB Bobby Cira (26 TD passes) and RB Monte Marion (18 TDs rushing) to go with Jeremy Howard's seven field goals.  Concord is the 4A favorite in the northern part of the state and don't let anyone tell you different.  The Minutemen have beaten Wawasee (8-2), defending 2A state champ Jimtown (8-2), Plymouth (7-3) and defending 3A state champ Northwood (6-4) and they've beaten them all by 10 points or more.  How do you stop them?  Pray for rain.  DeKalb has already called the witch doctor.
                (4A) Concord (10-0)  41,  DeKalb (5-5)  7


PLYMOUTH  - A rematch of high-powered Northern Lakes Conference (NLC) rivals.  Both teams average over 30 points a game and Wawasee won the earlier match 31-29.  Wawasee's Joe Leach has 20 TDs out of the Warriors' spread offense.  You normally don't go against Plymouth at home, but the Rockies have injury problems and have lost three of five.
                (4A) Wawasee (8-2)  27,  Plymouth (7-3)  21


HIGHLAND  - Hobart has to beware here.  Emilio Covarrubias gaining 339 yards rushing last week cannot be ignored, even if it was against West Side.  If the weather turns bad, it becomes a running game and Highland has a chance.  If Josh Miracle can hit Bobby James and Michael Brown through the air, this is a rout.
                (4A) Hobart (9-1)  35,  Highland (3-7)  7


LOWELL  - The Red Devils got eight QB sacks last week in a 24-6 win over Kankakee Valley and they held the Kougars under 100 yards rushing.  It was, by far, Lowell's biggest game of the season.  The Panthers had their biggest victory in many seasons with the 34-0 playoff win over rival Lew Wallace.  QB Harrison Yancey threw four TD passes and he'll be throwing from the first play this week.  That's good news for Lowell defensive ends Jeff Barker (10 sacks) and Joe Carlson (4 sacks).  In good weather, the Gary boys can score on Lowell.  In bad weather, this game gets very ugly as Lowell will run the ball very well.
                (4A) LOWELL  62,  Gary Roosevelt (4-6)  24


CARMEL - Fishers went 0-9 in their first year after splitting from Hamilton Southeastern, but then hammered Kokomo 33-7 on opening night of the playoffs.  This is the first meeting of Fishers and Carmel, which has lost only to state dominators Cathedral and Warren Central.  Congratulations to Fishers on getting that win, but this is one of those games that doesn't need to be played.
                (5A) Carmel (8-2)  42,  Fishers (1-9)  7


FISHERS - The defending 5A semistate champions have the defense (8.8 allowed per game) while Jefferson (43.9 ppg.) has a big time offense for a big time showdown.  Jefferson's pass-based attack is keyed by little Timmy Fogarty (156 of 251, 2,632 yards, 26 TDs, 7 INTs) and they bring the pain from the skies.  Jeff's only loss is 38-20 to Southeastern and this is a rematch worth the price of admission.
                (5A) Hamilton Southeastern (10-0)  28,  (Lafayette) Jefferson (9-1)  14


FORT WAYNE - I'm at a loss to figure how 5A Homestead was blown up by 37 points by 3A Norwell in September, but I absolutely can't figure how Warsaw can compete in this game averaging 12 points per game.  Homestead may still be wondering about that Norwell game.  But maybe I should wonder about how Norwell averages 50 points a game.
                (5A) Homestead (9-1)  51,  Warsaw (2-8)  7


MARION - One of the state's top games.  Rated dead even on the computer.  Snider ousted Marion 48-21 last season, but the rematch is on the Giants' field in Grant County.  Snider is battle-tested in the Summit Athletic Conference and Marion football is usually about as overrated as Michael Vick.  But this is the Giants' best team in this decade.  One note.  In 1997, Marion was 9-0 and lost the sectional quarterfinals 55-0.  To Fort Wayne Snider.  Never forget.  Always remember.
                (5A) Snider (8-2)  28,  Marion (9-1)  26


OSCEOLA  - Penn continues to walk the yellow brick road to the sectional finals.  Penn hasn't lost a sectional since President Bush had a good idea.  The Colonials have allowed 17 points a game against a schedule that isn't overly tough.  The Kingsmen have already beaten Clay by 29 and there's no reason to be sure this will be any different.  Penn has won 7,000 sectional titles in a row and the other teams in their sectional are more intimidated than the White House press corps.
                (5A) Penn (8-2)  35,  (SB) Clay (7-3)  0


LaPORTE - The Slicers' Airrence Shark (258-1,580 yards, 24 TDs) is the DAC's top rusher and he'll take it to Elkhart Central, a track school that is softer on defense than the Democratic Party.  LaPorte beat them 42-13 in August and despite the fact that the Blazers have sopped up some weak sisters since then, unless there's a monsoon, this Friday's game will easily go to the home team.
                (5A) LaPorte (7-3)  42,  Elkhart Central (6-4)  27


MERRILLVILLE - A telling game of philosophy.  Can a passing team (Chesterton) beat a defense-oriented team (Merrillville) in late October in NW Indiana?  If the rain falls, will Chesterton fall with it?  Chesterton star QB Alex Beierwalter (203-of-276, 2,298 yards, 16 TDs, 17 INTs) and his teammates have not had the year he has hoped to have.  This is the night they can turn that all around.  Merrillville has been crippled by injuries and turnovers, but they can control the ball better than Chesterton.  This is a pivotal game between two teams that have a lot of excuses, but hope they don't have to use them.  I think the Pirate secondary can contain Beierwalter with a little help from Mother Nature.  Merrillville has gone from being overrated in August to being very much underrated in October.
                (5A) Merrillville (6-4)  26,  Chesterton (5-5)  21


CROWN POINT- Crown Point has gotten off to big starts in the last three games, all blowouts.  Portage has won five games in a row and defensively, they won't be blown out early.  But the Indians didn't move the ball that well against CP in September and, even with 1,400-yard rusher Albert Evans, that isn't the problem.  How does Portage stop everything CP brings to the table offensively?  I think Portage believes they can single-cover Matt Ernest, stop the run and dare the Bulldogs to go there.  And I think CP will go there.  CP has the best set of skill position players west of Concord.  This game is close for a half.
                (5A) CROWN POINT (10-0)  33,  Portage (6-4)  10

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Revised: October 27, 2006 .