Week 11 Picks:  2009 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith

October 30, 2009


 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK TEN  (10), 2009 Football Picks in Review:

Wrong - 8; Right - 16 = 64.0%;  Regular Season: 85-28, 75.1%;
TOTAL: 101-37 = 73.1%

The Pick The Result

LaVille 30, Culver 20  

Wrong... Culver 22-16

Winamac 42, Triton 0  

Wrong... Triton 27-14

Whiting 49, Lake Station 0  

Whiting 48-0

South Central 35, West Central 7  

South Central 32-12

Wheeler 28, North Newton 7  

Wheeler 42-7

Rensselaer 30, Seeger 23  

Rensselaer 20-14

New Prairie 35, Gavit 6  

New Prairie 52-6

Clark 28, Culver Academies 24  

Culver Academy 21-0

ANDREAN 28, Calumet 0  

ANDREAN 53-6

Glenn 28, Knox 14  

Wrong... Knox 31-15

Griffith 49, West Side 0  

Griffith 66-6

Morton 42, Highland 0  

Morton 14-0

Hammond 36, Lew Wallace 12  

Hammond 40-14

Hobart 35, Roosevelt 12  

Hobart 57-6

Kankakee Valley 27, Riley 16  

Wrong... Riley 15-13

Logansport 33, Concord 28  

Wrong... Concord 45-13

Plymouth 20, LOWELL 12  

Wrong... LOWELL 14-6

Washington 28, Clay 13  

Washington 21-20

Memorial 24, Michigan City 20  

Memorial 23-0

Mishawaka 28, LaPorte 14  

Mishawaka 27-14

Elkhart Central 37, Adams 13  

Wrong... Adams 29-26

Portage 42, East Chicago 7  

Portage 42-0

CROWN POINT 31, Chesterton 24  

Wrong... Chesterton 16-13

Munster 23, LC 12  

Wrong... LC 7-3

MERRILLVILLE 27, Valparaiso 24  

MERRILLVILLE 35-0

 

WEEK (10) TEN ANALYSIS:  I feel like the Chicago Bears.  Nothing I did last week worked out.  I lost most every close game and every upset I picked went down in flames.  After picking 75% for the regular season, I'm at 64.0% for the playoffs.  That just can't be!  What happened?  Winamac was undefeated and they lost by 13?  Clark was 8-1 and they lost 21-0?  Munster was 8-1 and lost to Lake Central who was 1-8?  KV led the entire game and lost to Riley (3-7) with FOUR seconds left.  CP missed an extra point for a 14-13 lead and then Chesterton won on a field goal with FIVE seconds left.  I'm glad I didn't go to the casino with these cards.  The worst pick?  Logansport over Concord.  Logansport has a long tradition of playoff meltdowns (as does the entire North Central Conference) and I should never have gone against Concord, no matter what injury problems they had.  I really suspect Concord rested people in the ninth week, a 24-0 shutout loss.  They were ready in week 10.  The best pick?  Wow.  Not a lot to choose from.  Memorial over Michigan City was no big deal because MC was injured.  Nothing else was surprising.

 

Mr. Picker (Through the Years)

2008 (final) OVERALL:  145 of 193 = 75.1%

2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%
 


Northwest Indiana WEEK-ELEVEN (11) PICKS, 10-30-2009
 

A couple of injures cloud week 11.  Mishawaka lost running back Gary Brooks to what might have been a season ending injury.  The Cavemen run a lot of three-back sets and they didn't complete a pass last week against LaPorte in a 27-14 win.  Morton lost linebacker Eddie Malatinka (6-3, 220) on a one-game suspension after being ejected in week 10.  I saw the Plymouth-Lowell game last week and both starting quarterbacks were injured in the first half.  The back-up quarterback MUST be ready the rest of the season.  Some heavy rain may move in Thursday, leaving fields wet for Friday night.  Warmer weather will mean high winds Friday night.  In Sectional Nine, remember that Morton and Hobart have artificial turf.

 

WEEK ELEVEN

 

Class A -  Sectional 33

Triton [4-6] at Culver [6-4]

 

CULVE9 (10-30-2009) Culver trailed 16-0 and won 22-16 last week . Triton trailed 14-7 but rallied to beat undefeated Winamac. Triton had a balanced attack last week and that becomes more important as the playoff continue. This sectional is wide open now. There's no state champions here but somebody is going to be a very happy sectional champ.

 

Triton 28, Culver 14
   
 

(1A) Whiting [6-4] at South Central  [3-7]

 

UNION MILLS (10-30-2009) I know Whiting defeated South Central earlier this season but SC is the better team Here comes Ethan Biggs who carried 25 times for 207 yards. He's tough runner and they stick with him.  I don't think Whiting can make the 90-minute ride to suburban LaPorte and come home a winner.

 

South Central 27, Whiting 20

 

Class A -  Sectional 34

 

(1A) Lafayette Catholic [9-0] at Frontier [5-5]

 

CHALMERS (10-30-2009) I'd be kidding you if I said I knew where Chalmers was so I don't know the field conditions. A sea of mud is the only thing that can stop Lafayette Catholic, which has allowed (and this is not a misprint) only 10 points all season.  Only overconfidence can beat Lafayette Catholic here. This is the lock of the week.

 

Lafayette Catholic 42, Frontier 0

 

(1A) Caston [7-3] at South Newton [8-2]

 

KENTLAND (10-30-2009) Both teams have lost to Pioneer and Winamac.  I know this game will be played in the mud and I think that works against South Newton.  I was surprised that Caston gave up 20 to North White (3-7) last week.  But I'll stay with the home team in what could be an overtime game.

 

South Newton 23, Caston 20


Class 2A -  Sectional 25

 
(2A) North Judson [5-5] at Wheeler [10-0]

 

UNION TOWNSHIP (10-30-2009) The Bearcats average 50 points a game and they won at North Newton last week to earn a home game.  North Judson scored 58 first half points on River Forest last week.  North Judson runs the ball and they ran for 414 yards last week.  Can Wheeler stop that for four quarters?  I don't think so.

 

North Judson 28, Wheeler 21
 

(2A) Rensselaer  [8-2] at Bowman Academy [5-5]

 

GARY (10-30-2009) Bowman Academy's first ever post-season win last week was over Bishop Noll, but Noll collapsed at mid-season and played like the St. Louis Rams.  Bowman is quite happy with that one win and they get a lesson in power football on this night from a team that has allowed only 102 points all year in 10 games.  Bowman doesn't have a home field so maybe they can tell Rensselaer to show up at the wrong place.

 

Rensselaer 49, Bowman 21

 
Class 2A -  Sectional 26

 
(2A) Garrett [6-4] at Bremen [2-8]

 

BREMEN (10-30-2009) Bremen rushed for 282 yards last week in what was only their second win of the season, but I don't think that's good enough here.  Garrett's recent losses have been to strong competition.  There's a hour drive here but Garrett should be ready.

 

Garrett 32, Bremen 14


(2A) Central Noble [4-6] at Fairfield [8-2]

 

FAIRFIELD (10-30-2009) Fairfield scored 79 points on helpless Prairie Heights (0-10) last week, leading 63-0 after three quarters.  They have a balanced attack and they've been strong for a couple of years.  To run up a score like that, they must feel they have something to prove, but you can't prove much against Central Noble this season.

 

Fairfield 42, Central Noble 8


Class 3A -  Sectional 17
 

(3A) New Prairie [4-6] at Culver Academy [8-2]

 

CULVER (10-30-2009) Clark thought they had a very good team and Culver crushed them 21-0, forcing five turnovers.  New Prairie doesn't think they have a very good team.  The rich kids from all over everywhere lay down some easy 'smack' here.

 

Culver Academy 35, New Prairie 14


(3A) ANDREAN [7-3] at Knox [5-5]

 

KNOX (10-30-2009) Knox may not have any idea what they're getting into here.  Andrean has lost only to Merrillville (9-1), Lowell (9-1) and Munster (8-2), all larger schools from larger classes.  Knox really can't throw the ball and their odds of running the ball here in the mud against the 59ers are about the same as Jay Cutler's chances of being voted all-Pro.

 

ANDREAN 30, Knox 7

 

Class 3A -  Sectional 18


(3A) NorthWood [6-4] at (SB) St. Joseph's [6-4]

 

SOUTH BEND (10-30-2009) St. Joseph's didn't complete a pass in the 54-7 win over Tippecanoe Valley, but they didn't have to.  Northwood has a strong playoff tradition.  This is a quality game because both teams faced strong regular season schedules.  Northwood can throw the ball a little and that might be the difference here.  But don't bet your little brother on either team here.

 

Northwood 21, St. Joseph's 20

 

 

(3A) Rochester [8-2] at Jimtown [9-1]

 

ELKHART (10-30-2009) This is Jimtown's first year in Class 3A, but Rochester used to be a 2A team as well.  The Jimmies rallied from a 14-0 hole to win last week at Marina, but the days of them dominating sectional games are over.  With that said, I think Rochester's in way over their heads here.

 

Jimtown 30, Rochester 14
 


Class 4A -  Sectional 9


(4A) Griffith [6-4] at Morton [9-1]

 

HAMMOND (10-30-2009) This is a rematch of the season-opener won by Morton 20-0.  But Griffith didn't have halfback Ed Johnson then and Morton did have linebacker Eddie Malatinka, who will miss the rematch on a one-game suspension.  Griffith's losses have been to Lowell, Andrean, Morton and 5A Valparaiso.  Griffith has faced a much tougher schedule and they've won four sectionals in a row.  I can't see Morton beating Griffith twice this year.

 

Griffith 28, Morton 16

 

(4A) Hammond [6-4] at Hobart [3-7]

 

HOBART (10-30-2009) Hammond is vulnerable to a power running attack and I think Hobart has one.  If the Brickies keep the ball on the ground Hammond will wear down.  The longer the season goes, the more people Hobart gets back from injury.  On their home field, the Brickies will answer every Hammond score.

 

Hobart 35, Hammond 24
 

 

Class 4A -  Sectional 10

 
(4A) (SB) Riley [3-7] at Concord [7-3]

 

ELKHART (10-30-2009) Concord finished the regular season with three consecutive losses, but I think they must have been resting starters in that third loss.  QB Anthony Yoder was 13 of 20 for 281 yards last week in a 45-13 win at Logansport.  Riley won on a last second field goal.  Clearly Concord is in the soft half of the Sectional 10 draw.  The MVP for Concord Friday will be the guy with the radio monitoring the Washington-Lowell game.

 

Concord 42, Riley 14
 


(4A) (SB) Washington [8-2] at LOWELL [9-1]

 

LOWELL (10-30-2009) The hard running team against the wild passing team.  Lowell runs the ball 95% of the time.  Washington has thrown 350 passes in 10 games.  Watch the weather here.  It should be muddy, but it could be rain-free.  That could aid Washington.  Lowell is on a run of tough teams with Munster (8-2), Andrean (7-3) and Plymouth (9-1).  But Washington shut out Mishawaka (9-1) in week nine.  Lowell makes a lot fewer penalties and turnovers.

 

LOWELL 42, Washington 28



Class 5A -  Sectional 2


(5A) Mishawaka [9-1] at Elkhart Memorial [7-3]

 

ELKHART (10-30-2009) Everybody has some doubts about Mishawaka after they dominated Penn (9-1), but then folded against 4A South Bend Washington (8-2).  Memorial has to throw the ball some to win, but they have a balanced attack.  I don't think the Cavemen are accustomed to being the favored team every week.  If there's a major upset this week, here it is.

 

Elkhart Memorial 35, Mishawaka 28

 

(5A) (SB) Adams [2-8] at Penn [9-1]

 

OSCEOLA (10-30-2009) This is an unfortunate match created by the all-inclusive state tournament.  Adams has no more business in the second round of the playoff than FOX News does being at a journalism seminar.  Adams has a weaker run defense than the University of Indiana.  The Kingsmen will spend much of the night waiting for Memorial-Mishawaka updates.

 

Penn 45, Adams 0

 

Class 5A -  Sectional 1

 
(5A) Portage [5-5]   at Chesterton [7-3]

 

CHESTERTON (10-30-2009) In the earlier meeting Chesterton won 31-28 and Portage ended the game on the Chesterton 4-yard line.  Jon Watson has 17 TDs at QB for the Trojans.  Portage's Jake Dixon has 21 TDs.  Chesterton's field was a muddy pumpkin patch three weeks ago and it likely has not gotten better.  That will slow Portage and kicker Kyle Schmidt gives the home team the edge.

 

Chesterton 24, Portage 21
   
 

(5A) MERRILLVILLE [9-1] at Lake Central [2-8]

 

ST. JOHN (10-30-2009) The problem with any state tournament is that when you pull a major upset, you can't just end the season there.  LC (2-8) upset Munster (8-2) last week, but they have to go on.  The Pirates have won nine in a row since an early loss to Warren Central and Merrillville will have more problems with the gooey Lake Central field than they have with the LC offense.

 

MERRILLVILLE 30, LC 8
 



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