Week 11 NW Indiana HS Football Picks

'Mr. Picker' WEEK 10, 2010 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 6; Right - 22 = 78.5%
The Pick	The Result
Class 1A ---- Sectional 33 ----
South Central 28, Winamac 26	South Central 52-0
West Central 35, Triton 7	WRONG ... Triton 34-19
Whiting 49, Lakeville 0	Whiting 42-13
Culver 28, Lake Station 0	Culver 49-7

Class 2A ---- Sectional 25 ----
Wheeler 56, Bishop Noll 0	Wheeler 71-21
North Newton 52, Bowman Academy 34	North Newton 54-34
Seeger 42, River Forest 14	Seeger 73-14
Rensselaer 28, North Judson 14	Rensselaer 48-16

Class 3A ---- Sectional 17 ----
John Glenn 28, Calumet 14	John Glenn 41-6
Gavit 20, New Prairie 6	(wrong) New Prairie 34-14
ANDREAN 24, Clark 0	ANDREAN 28-6
CMA 28, Knox 7	CMA 28-13

Class 4A ---- Sectional 9 ----
Morton 56, Gary Roosevelt 0	Morton 56-8
Griffith 28, Hobart 21	WRONG ... Hobart 35-14
Hammond 44, Lew Wallace 16	Hammond 60-6
Highland 32, Gary West Side 24	Gary West Side 28-22

Class 4A ---- Sectional 10 ----
Logansport 28, Kankakee Valley 13	Logansport 39-0
Clay 35, Riley 12	Clay 42-12
Concord 24, LOWELL 14	Concord 44-13
Washington 27, Plymouth 17	Washington 31-29

Class 5A ---- Sectional 2 ----
Mishawaka 56, Elkhart Central 0	Mishawaka 55-14
Michigan City 16, Goshen 14	WRONG ... Goshen 49-31
Penn 42, Adams 0	Penn 44-0
Elkhart Memorial 31, LaPorte 17	Elkhart Memorial 21-6

Class 5A ---- Sectional 1 ----
CROWN POINT 26, Portage 7	CROWN POINT 23-21
Lake Central 14, Munster 10	WRONG ... Munster 21-14
Valparaiso 42, East Chicago 14	Valparaiso 61-22
Chesterton 31, MERRILLVILLE 28	WRONG ... MERRILLVILE 48-27

2010, Week-10: 22 of 28 = 78.5%
2010, Week-9: 8 of 10 = 80.0%
2010, Week-8: 4 of 10 = 40.0%
2010, Week-7: 10 of 11 = 90.9%
2010, Week-6: 5 of 9 = 55.0%
2010, Week-5: 5 of 10 = 50.0%
2010, Week-4: 8 of 10 = 80.0%
2010, Week-3: 8 of 11 = 72.7%
2010, Week-2: 8 of 10 = 80.0%
2010, Week-1: 8 of 12 = 66.7%
2010 Season: 86 of 121 = 71.7%

Mr. Picker (Through the Years)
2009 (final) OVERALL: 154 of 212 = 72.6%
2008 (final) OVERALL: 145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL: 143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL: 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%

WEEK NINE (10) Analysis: None of my upset picks came through. Most games stayed true to form. I suggested an upset of Hobart over Griffith, but that's like your boss suggesting you got paid at the end of the week. You either did or you didn't. Plus I got lucky when Washington and Crown Point won on the final play of their games. Best pick of the week? North Newton over Bowman Academy with an almost correct final score.

WEEK ELEVEN (10-29-2010): This a is a difficult week to be a picker because this is the final week where there is nothing to play for. Winners simply advance to the next level. Players notice kids from other schools beginning to show up in the stands and winter sports teams about to begin practice. The goal at this point is still more to just survive and advance and that's a difficult position for favored teams to be in. Favorite teams on the road are automatically in jeopardy here because most teams are motivated by what they perceive as (or are told as being) the doubts of others. When they are favored in a do-or-die game, it puts them in a weak mental position. There is a weather factor this week. Not only will we have temperatures in the 40s for the first time in the 2010 season, but there a chance of high winds (there has been 30-40 mile an hour winds all week, forecast to diminish Friday) which could distort the games and neutralize good kickers.

WEEK (11) ELEVEN

Class 1A ---- Sectional 33 ----

BOURBON (10-29-2010) This appears to be a mismatch, but I don't know how Triton won last week 34-19 over West Central (6-4). Here's where SC needs to be a powerful running team and just stick to that.

CULVER (10-29-2010) A pivotal match in sectional play because Whiting traditionally loses to Culver. The Oilers are 1-4 against Culver in the last 12 years, all playoff games. All three Culver losses are to Class 3A teams. Here's where the Friday night 'habit' hurts teams that have to travel almost 100 miles.

ROYAL CENTRAL (10-29-2010) An elimination game where a heavily favored team faces a school that starts basketball practice on Monday. Pioneer has won nine in a row and they run the ball all the time so weather and wind do not affect them. Carroll is only in the tournament because everybody is.

LAFAYETTE (10-29-2010) North White has a 1,000-yard rusher and that's the hope here. That the conditions are so bad with high winds that Lafayette QB Austin Munn, who has thrown for 2,000 yards, serves up turnovers. If they don't, North White has about as much chance of winning this game as Valparaiso University does of going to the Rose Bowl. LC has allowed just 26 points all season.

UNION MILLS (10-29-2010) This game held intrigue all week because of the daily 30-mile-an-hour winds, which would ground Wheeler's passing game, but would not affect 1900-yard rusher Garrett Schuitema. Wheeler beat the Spartans 49-6 seven weeks ago and, at home, it's hard to see them not controlling this game, too.

RENSSELAER (10-29-2010) I'm unimpressed by Seeger scoring 73 points against a helpless River Forest team last week in a 73-14 win. Wheeler scored 70 on River Forest, too. The Bombers welcome bad weather as they have two 1,000-yard rushers. Rensselaer has won every game by two TDs or more and Seeger's schedule is weak.

FAIRFIELD (10-29-2010) Hard to pick. Bremen has defeated Jimtown (8-2), Whitko (8-2) and John Glenn (8-2). But did you know that Fairfield is 48-9 the last five years? I didn't. Both these teams give up a lot of points. Don't bet your little brother on this one, but I'll stay with the home team.

BUTLER (10-29-2010) Eastside has allowed over 300 points in 10 games and I don't see a good win on their record. This is a rematch of the season opener, won by Garrett 42-21. Barring overconfidence, the outcome should be the same.

NEW CARLISLE (10-29-2010) New Prairie lost 39-0 to Glenn just four weeks ago, but I believe that Glenn has lost their top running back to injury. On the other hand, Glenn held Calumet to 15 yards rushing last week and they've allowed just 79 points all year. I think Glenn is still the better team, but then I had the Texas Rangers in the World Series, too.

CULVER (10-29-2010) The strength of Andrean is the schedule they play, which includes 5A Merrillville and five Class 4A schools. Culver has a 27-point win over Fairfield (7-3) and they have a shot on their home field. But the Eagles have only scored 180 points all year and they'd need 30 points to beat the Niners.

ELKHART (10-29-2010) Northwood's record is misleading because they play three 5A schools and four 4A teams. This is another rematch of an opening night game won by Jimtown 24-0. These are traditional ground-based powers and this game won't last very long.

Jimtown 20, Northwood 12

(South Bend) St. Joseph's [5-5] at Lakeland [5-5]

LaGRANGE (10-29-2010) I thought St. Joe's over Marian was one of the biggest upsets of the first week. St. Joe beat Lakeland by eight TDs four weeks ago and they're only here because somebody has to be. You can't make up 56 points in four weeks.

HAMMOND (10-29-2010) Quietly, Morton watched as their 'roadblock' was eliminated last week. Morton is 22-3 over the last two seasons with ALL THREE losses to Lowell. Lowell lost at Concord last week. Hobart upset Griffith, but now they go on the road to face a team that beat them by 22 just three weeks ago. Hobart halfback Jamar Merritt is over 1400 yards and he can keep this close with a big night. Nobody wants to be the favorite.

GARY (10-29-2010) Another rematch. West Side topped Hammond 32-20 last week. Rule of thumb. In a rematch at the high school level, take the home team if they won the first time. Always. West Side, which has never won a sectional will have one ear on the radio to check that score from Hammond. They only lost to Hobart by five in August.

LOGANSPORT (10-29-2010) Big week for South Bend schools with St. Joe, Washington and Clay all advancing last week. Could they all do it again? Yes. The combined record of the six teams Logansport has defeated this year is a mind-numbing 9-50. Two of Clay's losses are to 5A powerhouses Penn and MIshawaka. Even on the road, this appears to be a mismatch.

SOUTH BEND (10-29-2010) Concord has not allowed more than two TDs in any game this year, but SBW throws 20-30 times a game and, like Clay, has lost to Penn (6-4) and Mishawaka (10-0). Concord looked very good against Lowell, but they were motivated to take down the three-time sectional 10 champs. On the road, they'll run into trouble here. Remember, nobody likes to be favored on the road at this level and SBW has played better teams than Concord. If there is a major upset Friday, here it is.

MUNSTER (10-29-2010) You have to be strong-minded to win on the road in the playoffs and CP QB Joe Hopman threw four fourth quarter interceptions last week. But Munster does not have the defensive front to reject CP all night and the Bulldogs' schedule is significantly tougher than Munster's.

MERRILLVILLE (10-29-2010) The top two teams in the DAC match up against with the No. 10 Pirates hosting the No. 4 Vikings. Valpo won 34-21 last month, but Merrillville has gained in confidence since then and is coming off back-to-back wins over Chesterton (6-4). Merrillville averages 37 points a game while Valpo has won two games 10-7. I still think Merrillville is the better team and what have I been saying all night here? Nobody wants to be favored on the road.

GOSHEN (10-29-2010) Goshen only scored 166 points during the 9-game regular season. Permission to speak freely? Goshen is a glorified 4A school and they play a predominantly 4A schedule. Unless Mishawaka sleepwalks through this game, their ground attack should steam roller the G-men like the Boston Celtics controlled Miami's 'Three Kings' the other night.

ELKHART (10-29-2010) For all of Penn's losing, they've allowed only 86 points all season, although they have shut out Adams (1-9) twice. Memorial barely got by LaPorte last week and LaPorte was crippled by injuries. Memorial has that 'Chicago Bears' offense that only works once in a while. Except for the season opener against Elkhart Central (0-10), Memorial has not scored more than 27 in any game. They'll need more than that Friday.