Week 12 Picks:  2005 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

November 2, 2005

WEEK-11 ANALYSIS:  Just like week 10.  Either mismatches or upsets.  But it got more predictable.  Obviously Memorial over LaPorte was a surprise, but Memorial could run the ball and LaPorte didn't stop the run all year.  Hamilton Heights over Twin Lakes may or may not be a break for Griffith.  Both can play and Hamilton is a longer road trip.  Griffith should ask that a game at Hamilton Heights be played Saturday. Wawasee and Concord could have gone either way and Noll should have beaten LaVille, but you had an idea they wouldn't.   Mishawaka is 0-30 against Penn in 25 years. To pick Mishawaka would have been like picking 'Scooter' Libby to beat the rap.  Like Purdue, Merrillville and Crown Point have been very consistent this year.  There was no reason to think they'd change last week.  Week 12 is where you come to a fork in the road.  Area rivals meet for the title and you have to decide who's good, not just who has the best record.  Anybody can pick the first 11 weeks if you select the right games to select. It's from this point on that you actually have to do more than just flip a coin.

WEEK 11 (2005) PIX recap

WEEK 11: 13 of 16, 81.3%

WEEK 10: 21 of 27, 77.7%

WEEK 9: 7 of 11, 63.6%

WEEK 8: 9 of 12, 75.0%

WEEK 7: 10 of 12, 83.3%

WEEK 6: 9 OF 13, 69.2%

WEEK 5: 10 OF 14, 71.4%

WEEK 4: 9 OF 12, 75.0%

WEEK 3: 7 of 13, 53.8%

WEEK 2: 11 of 15, 73.3%

WEEK 1: 16 of 20, 80%

9-WEEK REGULAR SEASON: 88 of 122, 72.1%

PLAYOFFS: 34 of 43, 79.0%
2005 Season: 122 of 165, 73.9%

2004 Overall: 156 of 216, 72.2%

WEEK 12 (Twelve) PREDICTIONS

Sectional Championships, 11-4-2005

Class 1A - West Central (10-1) 30 , Whiting (11-0) 17

FRANCESVILLE  - Here is where the rubber meets the road for Whiting starting with a 75-mile drive (Francesville is 30 miles south of Route 30 on Route 421.)  The Oilers must stop the West Central 'flexbone' attack which is a quick hitting veer or Wing-T that has carried WC to 3,000 yards rushing in 11 games.

WC fullback Kayln Ballard (198 carries, 1,417 yards, 24 TDs) might be the best back Whiting has faced. If he's not, halfback Jake Fritz (143 carries, 1,436 yards, 19 TDs) is.  Ballard (6-0, 190) and Fritz (5-10, 160) do it with speed as WC reportedly has no player heavier that Scott Evans (5-11, 205) in the offensive line. They are very small and they've only thrown 64 passes all year.  But they've been small and allergic to the pass all year and they're still 10-1.  The size thing is a little deceptive.  Brothers Ryan (6-3, 180) and Corey Howat (6-3, 180) key the defense with two-way lineman Grant Davis (6-2, 200). They aren't that small.

Whiting is led by QB Jake Kobli (111-180, 2,048 yards, 21 TDs, 5 INTs), who has thrown 13 TDs to WR Mike Haljscik (6-1, 160), a top pass catcher (31-477 yards).  The Oilers don't want to put it all on one player but Kobli (6-3, 195) has also rushed for 600 yards.  He may run for 100 yards on this night rather than throw into a secondary that has 25 interceptions.  Whiting dragged to a 6-0 victory over Clark (3-8) and a 13-8 win over LaVille (5-6).  Whiting did very well against KV's option two weeks ago, but KV's 'flex' is different because it uses a lot of misdirection. West Central jumps on people quickly. They have outscored the opposition 159-34 in the first quarter this year.

Whiting is bigger than West Central, but top-ranked Pioneer (11-0) is bigger than both of them and West Central ran for 251 yards in a 21-20 loss to Pioneer.  West Central averages 43 points a game against a schedule with four winning teams including Pioneer. Whiting has allowed 4.3 points a game but they have played a grand total of ONE team with a record of above .500. That team is Kankakee Valley, which had 29 players in uniform last week at Lowell.  So the Oilers will be facing the first tough team they've seen all year. On the road, on a questionable weather night, West Central is the better team and it's not really that close.


Class 1A - Adams Central (10-1) 27, Southern Wells (7-4) 13

PONETO - No one has held Adams Central to less than 21 points all year and Southern Wells, which has allowed more points than they have scored in 11 games, won't be the first. Adams Central has already beaten Southern Wells by 14.


Class 2A - Rensselaer (10-1) 35, Winamac (4-6) 12

RENSSELAER -  The 'Mac' is back after a 22-14 victory over Bishop Noll, but nobody thinks the Warriors can go on to win at Rensselaer. QB and multi-purpose star Jake Kiger (171 carries, 1,137 yards) has completed 92 of 151 for 1,673 yards with 19 TDs and 6 interceptions.  Winamac has allowed 30 points a game and it won't get better here.  Bad weather will hurt speedy Rensselaer more than most teams, but it would have to be a hurricane for Winamac to get out of here alive.


Class 2A - Jimtown (10-1) 28, Garrett (7-4) 0

GARRETT - Here's a test for Jimtown and perhaps for those who predict games. Jimtown has shut out five teams in a row. They lead the state in consecutive shutouts. But now they have to ride the 'Midnight Special' up to the northeast corner to play the Garrett Railroaders.  Garrett averages 26 points a game, but they give up 20 a night.  So, the question isn't whether Garret win will but whether they will score. The answer is no.  Jimtown is another small quick team that will be fine as long as the weather doesn't go south.

Class 2A - Lewis Cass (11-0) 24, Churubusco (10-1) 20 

WALTON - Cass is 11-0 against a schedule that includes five 3A schools including Hamilton Heights (7-4). Both teams won in overtime last week so both may be living on borrowed time.  Churubusco has been almost as successful, but against a lesser schedule. Its a long drive to Walton and and an even longer ride home.

Class 2A - Eastbrook (10-1) 34, Oak Hill (8-3) 10

MARION -  Eastbrook has already beaten Oak Hill by 19 so these are rivals, but Oak Hill doesn't have a lot of strong wins.  Probably because Oak Hill isn't very good.

Class 3A - Griffith (11-0) 50, Morton (8-3) 28

GRIFFITH  - Morton has to find a way to stop Griffith halfback Drew Rogowski (103 carries, 1,006 yards, 28 TDs) who leads all of Northwest Indiana in TDs.  Rogowski has over 2000 total yards counting receptions and kick returns. QB Matt Nelleman's numbers (60-103, 1,384 yards) are not great, but he has 17 touchdowns and two interceptions.  Morton is 8-3 but they're only 4-3 outside of Hammond and they lost 58-13 to Griffith in September.

QB Robert Dutton (107-218, 1,660 yards, 15 TDs, 10 INTs) has also scored 16 TDs and WR Andre London (6-3, 215) has caught 48 passes for 784 yards but they won't have anything to do with the key to this game.  Morton has to stop Griffith's 50-points per game and 300 yards rushing per game offense.  Even when they have won this year, Morton hasn't stopped the run. That sounds a lot like LaPorte and they were evicted from the state tournament last week.

Fullback Doug Ashenbaugh (131 carries, 881 yards) is the first option in the Panthers offense which has not been held under 21 points all year.  On defense Panther linebacker Brandon Veronesi has 105 tackles.  This does not seem possible, but Griffith has outscored opponents 204 to 7 in the first quarter this year.  The Governors will be impeached.

Class 3A - Hamilton Heights (7-4) 28, Frankfort (6-4) 27

ARCADIA - Frankfort has allowed more points than they have scored.  I'm not sure how they're still here.  Hamilton is a balanced team with a 2,000-yard passer in Justin Boser (127 of 204, 1,926, 18 TDs, - 10 games) and a 1,000-yard rusher in Chad Shearer (156, 1190 yards - 10 games).  But Frankfort has that Chicago Bears offense (which means they go around in circles until the defense or special teams score) that will serve them well in a cold night on the road.

Class 3A - St. Joseph's (7-4) 21, Northwood (5-6) 13

SOUTH BEND -  No doubt these are two traditional powers but both have seen better days. St. Joe did beat Portage, but Portage was 2-8.  HB Jordan Taylor (168, 1,019 yards) leads St. Joe, but Northwood's schedule includes seven 4A or 5A schools. This is Northwood's first losing record in 33 years. But they're a 14-time sectional champ and an eight-time regional winner. And they're hosting the sectional title game at home so shut up about it.

Class 3A - Bishop Luers (7-4) 35, Concordia (6-5) 20

FORT WAYNE  -  Luers has played five 4A schools and two 5As, but they lost 23-19 to Concordia six weeks ago. This is another Summit Athletic Conference re-do. I'm not sure either team here is very good.  Luers used to be feared but so did Brett Farve.   Concordia has allowed more points than they've scored. Luers hasn't been a state player since they moved up from 2A (which they dominated) to 3A three years ago.  It might be time.

Class 4A - Delta (10-1) 35, Muncie Central (10-1) 31

MUNCIE  -  These are Muncie area rivals, and while Muncie has played five 5A schools, they are among the football-weak North Central Conference (NCC) schools.  This might be an upset, but go with Delta, which has lost to Muncie Central in the playoffs three years in a row.  Down the road, who cares?  Muncie football has proven to be as weak as the NFC North. The winner gets a whipping from Dwenger.

Class 4A - Bishop Dwenger (10-1) 21, FW South (9-2) 7

FORT WAYNE  -  Dwenger is too strong defensively to let this Saturday night game get away.  Dwenger beat South by 3 TDs in September.  Dwenger played last Saturday night, too, didn't they?  Schools will travel 100 miles after school on Friday night rather than play Saturday like common sense would dictate.  Dwenger plays Saturday and wins. They seem to have no problem with it.  Maybe it can become a trend.

Class 4A - Plymouth (11-0) 42, Concord (8-3) 27

PLYMOUTH -  Plymouth has won two games in double overtime, but they defeated Concord by 13.  Plymouth QB Chad Clinton (79-139, 1,286 yards) loads it up against Concord QB Bobby Cira (119-207, 2,168 yards) and his WR brother James Cira (36-706 yards). Concord's Mike Meade has caught 42 passes for 1,020 yards.  Plymouth's 6-foot-4 Alex Quintana has caught 40 passes.  Michael Brown averages almost 40 yards a punt. This, in good weather, is an offensive show.  This is a season's goal for Plymouth and they are unlikely to fall here no matter how much trouble this game becomes.

Class 4A - Lowell (7-4) 28, Hobart (6-5) 17

LOWELL -  Hobart has to stop Lowell tailback Scott Gray (226 carries, 1,617 yards, 22 TDs) without getting too far away from Jeff Clemens (36 catches, 508 yards).  QB Jimmy Ritter (62-117, 702 yards) has improved as the season has gone on.  But the Brickies' defense has three shutouts led by linebacker Richard Mitchell (6-2, 215), who has 104 tackles.  QB Josh Miracle (125-259, 1,584 yards, 12 TDs, 17 INTs) also has improved as the year has gone on.  Receivers Bobby James (40-525 yards) and Michael Brown (38-494 yards) will see the ball come their way all night.

Lowell has outscored the opposition 127-27 in the first quarter.  Hobart has only scored more than 24 points in the two games they won against Gary West Side.   Hobart has to shut down a Lowell team that has scored 40 or more in five of the last six games, but they have a history of doing that. This is a typical sectional playoff game with low-scoring rivals meeting for the second time.  The last meeting of Hobart and Lowell was 14-7 but this one won't be.

Class 5A - (FW) Snider (11-0) 52, Marion (5-6) 14

FORT WAYNE -  Snider's MiQuale Lewis (190 carries, 1,462 yards 18 TDs) is the boy who runs a 4.45 40-yard dash on a reconstructed knee.  Marion drives up north to take this whipping because the IHSAA says they have to. They're waiting for basketball.  Snider has rushed for 3,000 yards and they've coasted in some games.  Unless Marion uses 12 defenders, this will be one of them.

Class 5A - Carmel (7-4) 28, Hamilton Southeastern (8-3) 10

HAMILTON  -  The battle of the rich kids in affluent Hamilton County outside of Indianapolis.  Carmel annually plays a super-tough schedule including Cathedral, Warren Central, Ben Davis and Center Grove.  Southeastern has lost 11 in a row to Carmel and that isn't likely to change this time.

Class 5A - Penn (9-2) 35, Elkhart Memorial (5-6) 7

ELKHART -  Here's what you call a 'lock.'  Penn allows 11 points per game.  Memorial has not held anyone under 14 all year and they only won in week 11 because they exploited a LaPorte weakness (run defense) that Penn simply does not have.  Penn is a 30-point favorite. This game is not just a lock, it's a 'Master Lock.'

Class 5A - Merrillville (9-2) 28, Crown Point (11-0) 25

MERRILLVILLE  - The matchup of Northwest Indiana's top two teams with Merrillville trying to avenge a 13-0 CP home win in September.  The all-time series is almost even.  Merrillville leads 29-28-1.  CP halfback Donny Keiser (149, 1,009 yards) has scored 14 TDs and kicked a state record 16 field goals.  CP linebacker Jordan Rhye has 65 tackles, 10 QB sacks and three interceptions, two for TDs.

CP is 5-0 with QB Matt Jansen (53-70, 760 yards) back in the lineup and the Bulldogs have not been held under 30 points in any of those five games.  Crown Point has the No. 1 scoring defense among 5A schools state wide, allowing only 8.3 points a game.  But Merrillville is No. 2 and they have halfback James Aldridge (177-1,183 yards, 19 TDs) in top form and QB Evan Parker (71-120, 1,231 yards, 12 TDs, 7 INTs) coming in with six consecutive wins and WR Chad Dawson (27-640 yards) ready to go deep.  Both teams have four shutouts, but CP has allowed just 675 yards rushing all year.

Jansen is hitting 60% of his passes, but Merrillville has 16 interceptions in the last six games and 40 quarterback sacks in 11 games.  No one has scored more than 21 points on Crown Point all season, but Merrillville has scored 261 points (37.2) in their last seven games.  Steve Burney, Anthony Curry and Drew Dawson all have five interceptions for the Pirates.

Jansen and WR Matt Ernest (15 catches, 276 yards) did not play in the 13-0 win in September, but they did play last October when Merrillville won 34-19 at Crown Point.  Here's a game that should have been played on Saturday so more people could see it.  If both teams play well, the Pirates should win a close one.

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Revised: November 02, 2005 .