Week 12 Picks:  2006 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

November 1, 2006

WEEK (11) ELEVEN RECAP:  Outside of sub-.500 Rensselaer eliminating North Judson, there was not a real surprise.  Wawasee and Plymouth was even.  Whiting plays a soft schedule that is disguised by the fact that they play larger schools.  They play larger schools with bad programs.  That will change next year.  Wawasee and Plymouth were equal teams.  I understand why folks thought Chesterton would beat Merrillville, but the late season weather swung that game to the defense.  It almost swung the Portage-CP game.  Note what Frankfort did with the week off.  It's not fair to get a week off.  It's a flaw in the system.  I don't know of anything else that could even remotely be considered a surprise.

BIGGEST WINNER - WEEK (11) ELEVEN:  Rensselaer.  Rensselaer has lost a lot of games this year but they've gotten healthy and fired up the defense for the playoffs.  A total turnaround from last year when they outscored everyone.  Like Lowell, which was outstanding in 2005 and graduated a bus full of seniors.  They are one game from the 'goal.'

RUNNER UP: WEEK (11) ELEVEN:  Merrillville.  I heard from people that assumed Merrillville could not win last week because Chesterton beat them by nine points three weeks ago.  The Pirates' defense scored 3 TDs last week and that's how they will continue.  They need that wheeling-dealing, ball stealing defense and it finally stepped to the front.  Their defense can give their offense confidence to play better than they have.

WEEK 11 (2006) PIX recap

WEEK 1:  9 of 13 = 69.1%
WEEK 2:  10 of 15 = 66.7%
WEEK 3:  11 of 13 = 84.6%
WEEK 4:  11 of 14 = 78.6%
WEEK 5:  9 of 12 = 75.0%
WEEK 6:  10 of 13 = 76.9%
WEEK 7:  11 of 12 = 91.7%
WEEK 8:  10 of 11 = 83.3%
WEEK 9:  7 of 12 = 58.3%
WEEK 10:  19 of 24 = 79.1%
WEEK 11:  17 of 22 = 77.2%

2006 Regular Season: 88 of 115 = 76.5%
2006 Playoffs:  36 of 46 = 78.3%
2006 Season Overall to date:  124 of 161 = 77.0% 
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

Northwest Indiana
WEEK 12 (TWELVE) PICKS, 11-1-2006

(11-3-2006)  WEEK (11) ELEVEN -  There are two great weeks in the Indiana state tournament.  The semistate, where you either reach the state finals or go home.  And 'week 12' where you either achieve the season's first goal and get the season's first trophy, or you fall short.  The great thing about week 12 is that long time rivals get together.  You see the same match ups because the top two teams in the eight team group have a good chance of meeting (if we're lucky) in the finals.  Class 4A in the north is the perfect example.  The two teams in Fort Wayne (in 4A) go head to head.  The top two teams in Lake County (Lowell-Hobart) match up.  The top two teams in the Muncie area play each other and the to two teams in the Michigan (South Bend-Elkhart) area get together.  That's the essence of this tournament.  Teams can lose beyond week 12 and they still get to keep  the championship of their area.

IN THE CLOSET:  Again, the closet is closed.  You cannot get lucky beyond this point. You can not get beyond this point due a good draw.  Obviously Hammond (2-9) looks out manned against Griffith (10-1).  West Central seems overmatched against undefeated South Newton (11-0), especially in light of what occurred at West Central last weekend (see West Central-South Newton matchup).  But there is honor here, even if you get massacred.  You walk on the field trying to pull the greatest upset of your life in front of a sellout crowd and, if you fail, so what?  For one night, you are in the National Football League.  All players should look at the calendar before they take the field and recognize that they are playing a championship game in November.  In Indiana, that's the goal.
 

(1A)  SHERIDAN - The defending state champions are back in the first title game with a 17-game winning streak. Only 3A teams have been able to stay with them. These Black hawks don't get shut out every other night.  This is the second easiest game to pick in the state.  Sheridan runs the ball, what they prefer to do, on a cold night and wins easily.
                Sheridan (11-0) 33, Frankton (5-6) 6

(1A)  MONROE - Adams Central won by 16 when these two met a month ago and no one has scored more than 13 points against them all year.  Adams Central has won 22 of their last 25.  They were eliminated last year by Sheridan and they will earn a rematch.
                Adams Central (10-1) 24, Southern Wells (7-4) 7

(1A)  SEEGER - The first really difficult game on the board.  On a 35-degree night, Pioneer will do nothing but run the ball.  That's what they always do.  They have thrown 39 passes all year.  It's crazy to go against them considering the weather.  But Seeger can stop the run.  Their weakness is against the pass.  Pioneer has a long drive and they walk into one of the state's top small school home fields.  Seeger is the home field but Pioneer is a logical choice.  Who needs logic?
                Seeger (10-1)  27, Pioneer (9-2) 26

(1A)  KENTLAND - Although I have not seen this in print in NW Indiana as of Tuesday, but the Logansport Pharos-Tribune reported Tuesday that West Central running back Cody Heims, who gained 223 yards on 33 carries in West Central's 10-7 win over Whiting last Friday, was killed in a one-car accident early Sunday morning.  His funeral is Thursday.  While WC could have forfeited and that action would not have been questioned, West Central, reportedly has agreed to play Friday's game at the urging of Heims' family.
                South Newton (11-0) 35, West Central (5-6) 14

(2A)  HAMMOND - The Bombers have played a much stronger schedule than Bishop Noll, but Tony Hollingsworth (5-7, 150) is built for a cold night and a cold, fast track.  Rensselaer has played Twin Lakes (7-3), North Judson (9-2) and Sheridan (11-0).  Noll can run hard and stay close, but they need to play teams like Rensselaer during the regular season.
                Rensselaer (5-6)  20, Bishop Noll (8-3) 7

(2A)  ELKHART - A major showdown in 2A as the up-and-coming power takes on the 3-time 2A champion.  Forget Jimtown's losses.  The defending 2A champs have lost to 4A Concord (11-0) and 3A New Prairie (10-1).  Fairfield has blasted a good Eastside (8-3) team twice and they've allowed just 47 points all year.  Jimtown averages 33.5 points per game and they have won nine playoff games in a row.  Here's another running team on a very cold night.  It's close, but stay with the champion Jimmies at home.
                Jimtown (9-2) 21, Fairfield (11-0) 16

(2A)  MONROEVILLE - Harding has played in the tough Summit Athletic Conference (SAC) and, on paper, they are overmatched here.  But Harding has played seven teams that are 4A or 5A.  Heritage, against a lesser schedule, has allowed just 65 points all year but Harding has scored 42 or more six times, three times against 4A schools.  I'm not sure who's going to win this one and I'm not sure where Monroeville is.
                Harding (8-3) 42, Heritage (11-0) 35

(2A)  FAIRMOUNT - Here's two teams that got lucky.  This game is dead even and, when that occurs, go with the home team.  Madison-Grant has played a slightly tougher schedule but who knows?  Both of these teams have allowed more points than they have scored.  To say I know who'll win this game would make me sound dumber than John Kerry.
                Madison-Grant (6-5) 14, South Adams (5-6) 12

(3A)  OSSIAN - Norwell beat 5A Homestead 55-18.  That thing about the tough Summit Athletic Conference doesn't go this far.  Concordia has a high-flying offense and they opened the season with a 21-17 upset of 5A Snider.  But they have as much a chance of winning here as you and I do of finding Ossian in the dark.
                Norwell (11-0) 28, Concordia (6-5) 0

(3A)  NEW CARLISLE - New Prairie isn't that old a school and this will be the first time they've ever hosted a sectional game.  Culver Academy took down the defending 3A state champs Northwood last week, but they are in the wrong place at the wrong time on this night.  New Prairie averages 300 yards rushing a game.  They are the perfect bad weather team. This will be a game where the scoring is slow and low.
                New Prairie (10-1) 14, Culver Academy (9-2) 7

(3A)  ARCADIA - Frankfort was lucky last week because they got a first round bye.  But that puts them on the road and Hamilton Heights is battle tested, losing to Lewis Cass (10-1), Carmel (9-2) and Western (8-3).  Hamilton Heights has won the last four sectional championships here and I need more than I see in Frankfort to go against them at home.
                Hamilton Heights (8-3) 28, Frankfort (7-3) 20

(3A)  HAMMOND - This is a mismatch.  Hammond can't stop the run and all Griffith does is run.  If Hammond waters down the field, takes down the benches on the visitors side and moves the game to East Chicago, they have a chance.  This is the easiest game in the state to pick.
                Griffith (10-1) 56, Hammond (2-9) 0

(4A)  MUNCIE - This is the quintessential Muncie football rivalry.  Delta won 28-21 in three overtimes in the 2005 sectional, but Muncie Central eliminated Delta three consecutive years before that.  Delta has had a far better season, but Muncie still plays that old schedule of larger schools from the time they were a larger school themselves.  Look at these four 4A games.  All local rivals.  All rematches of the 2005 playoffs.
                Delta (9-2) 34, Muncie Central (6-5) 16

(4A)  FORT WAYNE - Here's a classic Fort Wayne rivalry with the speedy Southside team taking on the perennial power.  South upset Dwenger for the Sectional title last year, a game that eventually enabled state champ Lowell to be at home for the semistate.  This should be no contest in very cold weather.  Dwenger has seven shutouts in 11 games including a 20-0 win over South in September.  Even at South, Dwenger will show them a hard way to go.  You never forget the team that eliminated you last season.
                Bishop Dwenger (10-1) 21, (Fort Wayne) South (9-2) 8

(4A)  ELKHART - Concord has been dominant all season.  QB Bobby Cira has thrown for 2,900 yards and 33 TDs.  No one has held them under 33 points.  Plymouth nipped Wawasee in overtime last week and they've gone as far as they can go.  They lost 42-21 to Concord earlier and an 11-0 Plymouth team lost 42-28 to Concord last season.  The Minutemen badly want to play Lowell, the team that upset them last season.  After giving up yards on the run early, Concord will get their chance.
                Concord (11-0) 42, Plymouth (8-3) 20

(4A)  HOBART - Another perennial sectional final.  Hobart has been eliminated by Lowell in each of the past three seasons but all three games were in Lowell.  Hobart shut out Lowell 7-0 four weeks ago but the Devils are born again since then, averaging 40 points a game.  In one of the state's oddest stats, in the last seven games between Lowell and Hobart. Hobart has never scored more than 10 points in any game.  That can't be a coincidence.  This is just a bad match up for the Brickies.
                LOWELL (6-5) 17, Hobart (10-1) 15

(5A)  LAFAYETTE - Jeff pulled off a major upset, ousting No. 2 Hamilton Southeastern last week, but Carmel's been a stronger team all year.  Carmel has lost only to 4A state favorite Cathedral and 5A favorite Warren Central.  No one else has come within 16 points of them.  Jeff is a big time passing team.  Carmel runs well.  Carmel wins decisively on a very cold night.
                Carmel (9-2) 28, Jefferson (10-1) 14

(5A)  FORT WAYNE - I don't think Snider's 60-0 win over undefeated Marion went unnoticed last week. Snider has lost two road games in Fort Wayne by a combined total of seven points.  Homestead has a good record except for that blowout loss 55-17 to 3A Norwell (11-0). Snider has played the tougher schedule and they have won 15 sectional titles and they are a 99% running team on a 35-degree night.  Either Norwell is very, very good or Snider is gong to win big here.
                (FW) Snider (9-2) 31, Homestead (10-1) 16

(5A)  OSCEOLA - LaPorte has never won a sectional championship largely because of the presence of Penn, which is an 11-time regional champ. The Slicers are led by all-time leading rusher Airrence Shark, who has six playoff TDs so far.  But Penn is renowned for stopping top runners. The Kingsmen average 38 points a game and LaPorte does not have a strong defense.
                Penn (9-2) 42, LaPorte (8-3) 21

(5A)  CROWN POINT - Another classic rivalry. Follow me here. Crown Point has beaten Merrillville five times in a row during the regular season but Merrillville has rebounded to eliminate CP in the sectional in each of the last two years.  CP is 22-1 over the last two years but Merrillville is the only team that's beaten them.  These towns border each other and are arch rivals in every sport.  Merrillville scored three touchdowns on defense last week but they have has 28 turnovers in 11 games while CP has 10.   The Bulldogs have waited 52 weeks for this.
                CROWN POINT (11-0) 27, MERRILLVILE (7-4) 17


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Revised: November 15, 2006 .