Week 12 Football Picks

WEEK 11, 2007 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 4; Right - 16 = 75.0%
The Pick	The Result
1A - South Newton 51, LaVille 12	Correct... South Newton 47-20
1A - Whiting 42, Triton 8	Wrong... Triton 41-13
2A - Winamac 23, Delphi 16	Wrong... Delphi 24-12
2A - Wheeler 28, Rensselaer 14	Correct... Wheeler 12-0
3A - St. Joseph's 21, Culver Academy 14	Correct... St. Joseph's 41-7
3A - Northwood 56, John Glenn 21	Correct... Northwood 22-19
3A - Clark 63, Calumet 27	Correct... Clark 44-18
3A - Andrean 49, Knox 7	Correct... Andrean 26-7
4A - Griffith 56, Highland 0	Correct... Griffith 41-0
4A - Hobart 42, Hammond 21	Correct... Hobart 21-13
4A - Concord 57, Kankakee Valley 16	Correct... Concord 35-14
4A - Lowell 27, Plymouth 7	Correct... Lowell 14-8
5A - Adams 41, Goshen 28	Wrong... Goshen 35-21
5A - Penn 27, Mishawaka 14	Correct... Penn 28-0
5A - Valparaiso 28, Lake Central 17	Wrong... Lake Central 14-7
5A - Merrillville 24, Crown Point 20	Correct... Merrillville 13-7

'1st Real Night' - WEEK 11 (Eleven) Recap - 10-26-2007 - The weather changed several games, most notably Lake Central and Valpo. Valparaiso wins in dry conditions. Adams' hot streak ended pretty abruptly and the weather had something to do with that as well. I don't think Delphi is very good, but it doesn't matter what I think because they keep winning. And I heard the suspensions for Whiting had ended and they hadn't. That's just as well. Teams with that type of serious behavior incidents shouldn't win any post-season titles anyway. This was the first 'real' night of the post-season, and actually, 12 of 16 was pretty good considering the unexpected weather across Northwest Indiana. Had the rain held off, I think 16-0 was a distinct possibility last week.

2007 (Week 1) 8 of 13   = 66.7%
2007 (Week 2) 8 of 11   = 72.7%
2007 (Week 3) 8 of 12   = 66.7%
2007 (Week 4) 10 of 11   = 90.9%
2007 (Week 5) 6 of 10 = 60.0%
2007 (Week 6) 6 of 10 = 60.0%
2007 (Week 7) 10 of 10 = 100.0%
2007 (Week 8) 6 of 10 = 60.0%
2007 (Week 9) 9 of 10 = 90.0%

Playoffs
2007 (week 10) 23 of 28   = 82.1%
2007 (week 11) 12 of 16 = 75.0%

2007 (Regular Season) 71 of 97 = 73.2%
2007 (playoffs) 35 of 44 = 75.9%
2007 (overall) 106 of 141 = 75.2%

2006 (final) OVERALL : 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%

Northwest Indiana
WEEK 12 (TWELVE) PICKS, 11-02-2007

MERRILLVILLE (11-02-2007) - Conference championships don't have much value to me unless they are undisputed titles. So the 12th week is the first time all season when you can actually win something. You'll see maximum effort here, because while they won't say it, this is the season goal for many of the teams remaining in the tournament. The boys know that some of them are not playing on state title contenders. But there won't be anyone on the field Friday night who does not believe they have a chance to 1.) Get what they came for, or 2.) Pull off the upset.

There are 40 games all over the state and the vast majority are quality matchups. Outside Northwest Indiana, Franklin Central (9-2) is the latest tO test the artificial turf at Pike (11-0), which is having the best season in school history. Pike was 2-8 in 2003 and 2004. I'm glad I don't have to pick four-time state champ Warren Central (8-3) hosting Hamilton Southeastern (9-2). The worst games are in 5A where Penn, Snider and Carmel are prohibitive favorites.

In 4A, Shelbyville (11-0) has played a suspect schedule, but that ends at Columbus East (10-1) Friday and few schools have more football tradition in the south than Reitz (11-0) and Jasper (9-2) which meet in Jasper.

In 3A, Hamilton Heights (8-2) takes an 8-game winning streak and probably very high hopes to Indianapolis to play eight-time state champ Bishop Chatard (8-3). I don't think Brebeuf (9-2) can win at Danville (10-1), but never bet against the Indianapolis private schools.

In 2A, undefeated North Putnam hits the road to Monrovia (7-4). North Putnam was 13-1 last season. Monrovia was 0-10 two years ago. Heritage Christian (10-1) should win at home against Lawrenceburg and another private school power is clearly coming on line in Indy. Heritage Christian high school has only had varsity football for six seasons.

In 1A, there'll be some boys with long memories in the deep south when unbeaten No. 2 Perry Central (11-0) travels to undefeated No. 4 Linton-Stockton (11-0). Perry Central has eliminated Linton-Stockton in each of the past two seasons.

Here's one slant on some games you might care about and some games you probably don't.

Class 1A Sectional 33: South Newton (10-1) at Triton (5-6)

BOURBON - South Newton has been unstoppable all season long behind QB Ben Welsh (144-235, 2,201 yards, 28 TDs, 6 interceptions - 1st 10 games) and they seem destined to battle undefeated Seeger (11-0) at the regional. Let's be honest. Triton is here because Whiting had a lot of players suspended. The only way the Rebels lose if is the bus gets lost on the 2-hour drive to Bourbon.

South Newton 42, Triton 14

Class 1A Sectional 34: Churubusco (9-2) at Adams Central (9-2)

MONROE - What does momentum mean? Adams lost twice early and has won seven in a row. Churubusco won its first seven and lost the last two regular season games. A closer look shows that Churubusco's two losses are to Lakeland (7-3) and Fairfield (10-1), so the boy from 'Turtle Town" (Churcubsco is 'Turtle Town'. Don't ask why.) can't be blamed for those defeats. Neither of these teams plays any 4A or 5As. I like momentum. And the home field.

Adams Central 21, Churubusco 7

Class 2A Sectional 25: Wheeler (10-1) at Delphi (5-6)

DELPHI - Delphi lost their last four regular season games and the Oracles (again, don't ask why?) were shut out in three of them. I don't know how they're here. Wheeler's schedule is highly-suspect (they've faced one 2-8 team, two 1-9 teams and 0-10 River Forest), but they have dominated it. Wheeler halfback Harold Branch has 22 TDs, but the Bearcats were mediocre at home in a 12-0 win over Rensselaer last week. They've got to score more than 12 points on the road this week and I think they can get there. If they can get there. Some in NW Indiana think Wheeler is the 'country'. Wheeler boys are about to find out what 'country' is. Carroll County is big pig farming country. Delphi, which runs the ball with 1,000-yard halfback Kory Banes, has allowed 100 more points than they've scored.

Wheeler 35, Delphi 20

Class 2A Sectional 26: Manchester (5-6) at Lewis Cass (9-2)

WALTON - Manchester lost six of their first seven and has now won four in a row. Cass split their first four and has won seven straight. It looks like a mismatch, but what's happened to Manchester? Manchester was 11-29 the last four years (2002-2006) and they didn't win any playoff games at all. Cass beat undefeated Rochester (9-1) to start the playoffs. Manchester hasn't beaten anyone with a winning record. But a four-game winning streak for a team that won 11 games in four years... what does that do to you?

Lewis Cass 27, Manchester 14

Class 3A Sectional 20: Twin Lakes (4-6) at Western (8-3)

KOKOMO - Twin Lakes lost the last four games of the regular season and they have shown no indication, even in victories, that they can win here. The Indians do not have the aerial attack to come from behind and odds are, they'll be behind. Western has lost only to big winning teams and they most certainly are not facing one here. This can't be anything other than a blowout.

Western 49, Twin Lakes 14

Class 3A Sectional 19: (FW) Concordia (7-4) at Bellmont (8-3)

DECATUR - Games involving Fort Wayne teams are always interesting because Fort Wayne schools, at times, play all nine games against Fort Wayne foes exclusively. The Summit Athletic Conference (SAC) has 10 teams, so your league schedule is nine games. You have no non-conference games. So, when they finally step out of town, you find out whether the city was strong or whether it was overrated. Concordia has rolled over Angola and Heritage 41-14 and 42-14. So it appears that even though they were tied for fourth in the SAC, Concordia is pretty good. And the larger indication is, it was a quality season in Fort Wayne and you should beware of ALL the remaining Fort Wayne teams. Belmont's won four in a row, but they don't score much, just 22 points a game. 22 points won't win this game.

(FW) Concordia 36, Bellmont 21

Class 3A Sectional 18: Northwood (7-4) at (SB) St. Joseph's (9-2)

SOUTH BEND - A great matchup of perennial powers. It wasn't a good year in South Bend, but St. Joe wasn't the problem. They've only lost to 5As Elkhart Central and Penn (11-0). But Northwood plays three 5A schools and they've won their last four. The St. Joe defense has come on strong as the Indians have six consecutive wins. Northwood is led by QB Skyler Titus, a three-year starter. So playing on the road won't matter as much. Northwood is almost 9-2, because they have two, one-point losses. But St. Joe has allowed just 37 points in its last four games. One of the better matchups of the week and it could go either way.

St. Joseph's 28, Northwood 24

Class 3A Sectional 17: Andrean (8-3) at Clark (8-3)

HAMMOND - Two Lake County teams that have met only twice in 25 years. The Pioneers have done well against a suspect schedule, while Andrean has lost only to 5A Portage, Hobart and Lowell. Both teams like to throw the ball... Clark with Craig Fruth (113-218, 2,324 yards, 24 TDs, 8 INTs) and Andrean with senior Austin Sutter (128 of 226, 1,783 yards, 20 TDs, 16 INTs). I just think Andrean has played more physical teams and is physically stronger. But I do go back to the original NW Indiana theme of this season: The rebirth of Hammond football. This could be the Indianapolis Colts against the New England Patriots. A game where neither side can stop the other. I just hope it doesn't rain again.

Andrean 42, Clark 30

Class 4A Sectional 12: Muncie South (7-4) at Jay County (8-3)

PORTLAND - These teams played earlier and Jay County won 27-25, so this game obviously can go either way. Muncie has won five in a row and they average 33 points a game, but they are the only winning team that Jay County has defeated. Muncie South is coming off a surprising 18-point home win over Delta (9-2), a team that beat Jay County 28-18 in August. Muncie South may have the state's most amazing player. Junior QB Jamil Smith is listed at 5-foot-7 and 135 pounds and he was 167-for-257 for 2,119 yards throwing (17 TDs, 12 INT) and had carried 199 times for 1,251 yards and 16 TDs after 10 games. Against Delta, Smith ran 36 times for 271 yards and completed 6-of-10 passes for 124 yards and 2 TDs. I know. I know. 135 pounds? 1,500 yards rushing? Over 2,200 yards passing? Jay County's nickname is the Patriots. Will the Patriots get beat in Central Indiana this weekend? Yes. Twice.

Muncie South 35, Jay County 28

Class 4A Sectional 11: DeKalb (7-4) at Bishop Dwenger (11-0)

FORT WAYNE - Dwenger averages 35 points a game and they are the undefeated champions of the 10-team Summit Athletic Conference (SAC). But they've played Elmhurst (0-10) and Columbia City (1-10) the last two weeks, so they may have been dumbed-down by the schedule. DeKalb has to shorten the game with an offensive line that averages about 250 pounds per man. But Dwenger has all-state receiver John Goodman (6-4, 185), who will play at Notre Dame. They also have a big offensive line and eight defensive starters returning from last year's 12-2 team. Dwenger has allowed 113 points in 11 games and their goal is to win the school's fourth state football crown. This appears to be a mismatch.

Bishop Dwenger 42, DeKalb 14

Class 4A Sectional 10: Lowell (10-1) at Concord (8-3)

DUNLAP - Here's the best game on the board. Lowell's speedy defense, which has allowed 93 points all season, faces Concord's 4-wide receiver attack, which has posted 30 points a game. These are top teams. Lowell is 2-0 against 5A teams. Concord is 3-0 against 5A schools. Lowell's only loss is 29-28 in overtime to Griffith (8-3). One of Concord's losses is 16-10 in overtime to Plymouth and another was at 2A No. 1 Jimtown (11-0). Concord is big and fast with junior QB Derek Yoder (6-3, 191), who has thrown for 21 TDs, junior WR JaVontae Hence (5-8, 160), a 4.5 sprinter who has scored 18 TDs and big tackle Kyle Magnuson (6-9, 302). Yoder is a good runner and Concord is an excellent come-from-behind team. The problem is: They leave their defense on the field a long time and that's why five different teams have scored 25 points or more on the Minutemen.

Lowell found that the combination of sophomore speedster Brandon Grubbe (1,300 yards) and senior fullback Steffan Peck (700 yards) is better than either one of them separately. The Devils' defense is primed to stop passers. Their pass rush, led by Jeff Barker (6-4, 205) is very fast and this is the best Lowell secondary in many years. Neither team here is going to shut down the other. But Concord will score more early and Lowell will score more late.

Lowell 31, Concord 28

Class 4A Sectional 9: Griffith (8-3) at Hobart (8-3)

HOBART - Two of the 'old school' Lake County football rivals go head-to-head for the trophy here. Hobart running backs Josh Huddleston and Andrew Jackson have combined for 1500 yards and WR Bobby James (6-3, 215) is a game breaker. No one has scored more than 22 points on the Brickie defense all year. Griffith did lose to Hobart 25-14 in September, but they also won at Lowell (10-1) in overtime. Including the win over Lowell, Griffith has scored 25 or more 8 weeks in a row. Both teams have players who are playing hurt and Griffith big play threat David Alexander is probably one of them. Nobody stops the Griffith option for four quarters, but I think facing Hammond prepares the Brickies well for the Griffith running game and the Brickies just don't turn the ball over. Hobart is 33-13 the last four seasons without that one sectional title. It's finally their turn.

Hobart 27, Griffith 17

Class 5A Sectional 4: (West Lafayette) Harrison (4-7) at Carmel (9-2)

CARMEL - There's no bigger mismatch on the board. Harrison beat Hamilton Southeastern (9-2) four weeks ago, but Carmel has lost two games by one point. Carmel averages 38 per game and this is the team that lost the state title game last year. Injured halfback Aaron King (5-10, 190), who ran for 2,300 yards in 2006, rang up four 4 TDs last week as Carmel beat Noblesville 28-7. The Greyhounds' defense held Noblesville to nine yards rushing. Harrison has two chances. 'Slim' and 'none'. And 'slim' just left town.

Carmel 42, Harrison 0

Class 5A Sectional 3: Warsaw (7-4) at (Fort Wayne) Snider (10-1)

FORT WAYNE - Snider lost 32-13 to 4A No. 1 Bishop Dwenger (11-0), but they still average 44 points a game. Including the 32 they gave Dwenger, Snider has still allowed just 122 points all season. Warsaw does not score very many points (21.4 per game) and that could be a problem since Snider has scored 50 or more six times. Warsaw played only three 5A schools during the season and lost to two of them. Snider won six consecutive sectionals until Homestead beat them 21-16 last year in the sectional title game. The Panthers have power and speed and Warsaw can counter with luck. They probably beat Fort Wayne South 14-7 last week only because South's QB got hurt.

Snider 50, Warsaw 12

Class 5A Sectional 2: Goshen (8-3) at Penn (11-0)

OSCEOLA - Goshen averages 19 points a game and they've beaten two South Bend city schools to reach the title game. Penn crushed Mishawaka 28-0 last week. Penn's defense has allowed 126 points all year and the Kingsmen may be eager to regain the sectional title they lost to LaPorte last year. Penn had won 11 sectionals in a row until last season. Goshen runs the ball with two-time 1,000-yard rusher Najee Slade (5-10, 180). I just don't know how they make that work here. Goshen is coached by Penn alum Brent Baldwin in his first season, so this is the 'Super Bowl' to Goshen. Teams lose the Super Bowl, too.

Penn 24, Goshen 3

Class 5A Sectional 1: Merrillville (10-1) at Lake Central (7-4)

ST. JOHN - Lake Central has surpassed their expectations for this season and now they get a shot at a bonus if they can figure out how to score on the Pirates' defense, which has held seven teams (including LC) to 10 points or less. The Indians ousted Valpo 14-7 in the rain last week with a power running game, but that may be a hard sell against a Merrillville squad that has defeated Crown Point (8-3), Griffith (8-3) and Warren Central (8-3). LC's defense can rattle the Pirates, but the earlier meeting was 24-3 and Merrillville is so much the faster team. The question isn't: 'How's LC going to win?' It's 'How's LC going to score?'

Merrillville 26, Lake Central 0