Week 12 Picks:  2009 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith

November 5, 2009

 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK ELEVEN  (11), 2009 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 8; Right - 12 = 60.0%;  Regular Season: 85-28, 75.1%; TOTAL: 113-45 = 71.5%
The Pick	The Result
CLASS 1A
Triton 28, Culver 14	Wrong... Culver 20-13
South Central 27, Whiting 20	Wrong... Whiting 14-12
Lafayette Catholic 42, Frontier 0	Lafayette Catholic 33-6
South Newton 23, Caston 20	Wrong... Caston 14-7
CLASS 2A
North Judson 28, Wheeler 21	Wrong... Wheeler 48-7
Rensselaer 49, Bowman 21	Rensselaer 64-6
Garrett 32, Bremen 14	Wrong... Bremen 3-0
Fairfield 42, Central Noble 8	Fairfield 14-6
CLASS 3A
Culver Academy 35, New Prairie 14	Culver Academy 14-0
ANDREAN 30, Knox 7	ANDREAN 28-6
Northwood 21, St. Joseph's 20	Northwood 12-6
Jimtown 30, Rochester 14	Jimtown 14-0
CLASS 4A
Griffith 28, Morton 16	Wrong... Morton 34-20
Hobart 35, Hammond 24	Hobart 35-6
Concord 42, Riley 14	Concord 42-8
LOWELL 42, Washington 28	LOWELL 24-7
CLASS 5A
Elkhart Memorial 35, Mishawaka 28	Wrong... Mishawaka 32-26
Penn 45, Adams 0	Penn 14-7
Chesterton 24, Portage 21	Wrong... Portage 14-0
MERRILLVILLE 30, LC 8	MERRILLVILLE 20-13

 

WEEK (11) ELEVEN ANALYSIS: I'm having more trouble in the post-season than the Indianapolis Colts. South Centtral should have beaten Whiting and Triton should have beaten Culver. Of course, Indiana University should have beayten Iowa (and Michiagn and Northwestern). Elkhart Memorial over Mishawaka was an upset that almost occurred as was griffith over Morton. I dont know what kind of field Garrett and Bremen were playing on and Wheelr was just beter than North Judson. Best pick of the week?: Not a lot to choose from again. The Hobart and Concord scores were prety close. That's all I got.

 

Mr. Picker (Through the Years)

2008 (final) OVERALL:  145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%
 

This is the last week where unworthy teams can luck by.  If you play in a soft sectional, you can can win three in a row and get a trophy.  Some teams can look at the potential regional matchup, see the future and realize that the sectional is their 'ceiling'.  As far as they can go.  That makes the sectional title game an even bigger contest.  The test-of-fire continues for Lowell, which has defeated 4A No. 4 Plymouth and 4A No. 9 South Bend Washington.  Now they face a Concord team that was in the top-10 most of the season.  Has anyone ever had to defeat five consecutive winning teams to reach the state finals?  We're looking at better weather state wide, which will eliminate the 3-0 and 10-7 games.  There's also a larger percentage of artificial turf fields in play this week at places like Hobart, Merrillville and Carmel.  Few 1A, 2A and 3As have artificial turf and that's something to consider in rainy November weather.  I need a big bounce back this week and there are some very clear cut games.

CLASS 1A

Culver (7-4) at Whiting (7-4)

WHITING (11-6-2009) Great match up as both pulled upsets last week in games where they were out gained. Triton rushed for 300 yards but Culver edge them 20-13.  South Central rushed for 210 on Whiting but the Oilers won in the mud 14-12.  I think that better weather helps the Oilers a lot  and WR Juwaan Simmons scores the winning TD as Whiting gets past an old playoff nemesis.

Whiting 28, Culver 21


Lafayette Catholic (10-0) at Caston (8-3)

CASTON (11-6-2009) Obviously, Lafayette Catholic is a prohibitive favorite.  The Knights have allowed just 16 points all year (they only played 10 games because Clinton Prairie had to cancel in week nine.  Caston, which played almost exclusively a 1A schedule, is very lucky to be here but they may not feel lucky in the third quarter.  The Caston field may be muddy, but clear weather opens up Catholic's passing game.  This is the 'lock' of the night.  Unless the Lafayette Catholic bus breaks down, they will win and win big.

Lafayette Catholic 56, Caston 0


Southern Wells (9-2) at Southwood (6-5)

WABASH (11-6-2009) Because of the mud fields, we've been getting some late mismatches and this may be another one.  Southern Wells has played the much tougher schedule and they've already beaten Southwood by 20 in August and by 35 in last year's playoffs.  This is Southwood's last chance to beat Wells, which was 13-1 last year.  Southwood is at home and they have every emotional edge.  But there's a gap between these two teams.

Southern Wells 30,  Southwood 14


Knightstown (8-3) at Northeastern  (3-8)

FOUNTAIN CITY (11-6-2009) Come on.  Knightstown was the 2005 semistate champ and Northeastern has beaten Edinburgh (1-9), West Del (3-7) and Tri (4-7).  Knightstown averages 33 points a game.  Here's a situation where one team got a good draw and faced a lot of losers.  There's always a chance that Knightstown can be unable to find Northeastern high school or they can forget their helmets or something.  But this game will get ugly.

Knightstown 35, Northeastern 7


CLASS 2A

Lewis Cass (8-3) at Northwestern (9-2)

KOKOMO (11-6-2009) Cass defeated Northwestern 26-7 over the Labor Day weekend, but the big QB Trevor Gibson (6-4, 225) of NE leads an offense that averages 35 points a game. Cass has won seven in a row and both teams have shutout their first two playoff foes.  Cass was 13-2 and in the state title game in 2008, but I like Northeastern to win a rematch at home.

Northeastern 29, Lewis Cass 21


Winchester (9-2) at Bishop Luers (6-5)

FORT WAYNE (11-6-2009) The records are deceptive here as Luers plays in the super-tough Summit Athletic Conference.  For example, Luers has lost to Snider (9-2), Fort Wayne South (8-2) and Bishop Dwenger (11-0).  This seems like a mismatch.  Luers, a seven time state champion, is a powerhouse and Winchester needs a lot more than they have.  You don't even have to turn the bus off for this one.  Let it idle.  It'll be over soon.

Bishop Luers 42, Winchester 14


Bremen (3-8) at Fairfield (9-2)

GOSHEN (11-6-2009) Here's another one.  Bremen plays a good schedule with Jimtown (9-2) and Plymouth (9-1), but they hardly beat anybody this year.  Fairfield has lost to Lakeland (7-3) and Culver Academy (9-2).  You know what 3-8 means in Indiana high school football?  3-8 means you were 1-8 during the regular season.  Fairfeld was 10-1 last year, too.  Bremen is toast.

Fairfield 42, Bremen 14


Wheeler (11-0) at Rensselaer (9-2)

RENSSELAER (11-6-2009) This showdown has been brewing all season.  Wheeler has dominated the state's weakest conference for years and they're tired of hearing that.  Rensselaer has a long tradition in football and they have played a difficult schedule with losses to Tipton (9-2) and West Lafayette (11-0).  Wheeler averages 50 points a game, but Rensselaer has allowed just 108 points all season.  Good weather favors Wheeler but Rensselaer and running backs Ben Ahlers (5-10, 220) and Justin Bohanon (5-11, 185) can control the ball, especially if junior tackle Ben Davisson (6-9, 310) has anything to say about it.  Rensselaer has won four of the last six 2A sectional 25 titles and there's a reason for that.

Rensselaer 27, Wheeler 14


CLASS 3A

Frankfort (7-4) at West Lafayette (11-0)

WEST LAFAYETTE (11-6-2009) West Lafayette is one of those teams that folks in Northwest Indiana always say 'isn't all that good'.  And that's why NW Indiana teams hardly ever win anything.  WL quarterback Danny Wodicka (6-0, 170) has thrown for 1,500 yards and 20 TDs and run for 1,000 yards and 19 TDs.  Frankfort has won four in row, but unless there is a weather issue, they're in over their heads here.

West Lafayette 34, Frankfort 20


Eastbrook (11-0) at Bellmont (8-3)

DECATUR (11-6-2009) These records might be a tad misleading as well because Bellmont used to be a 4A school and their schedule includes four 4As and two 5As.  Eastbrook is 133-24 in the last 14 seasons, but they do it against 2A and 3A foes.  Eastbrook returns 14 starters from the team that lost to West Lafayette last year and they might be a little faster.  This is one of the night's better games.

Eastbrook  27, Bellmont 21


Jimtown (10-1) at Northwood (7-4)

NAPANNEE (11-6-2009) This is a pure sectional title game between schools just a few miles apart in southwest Elkhart County.  Jimtown has won 17 sectionals while a Northwood has won 16.  But this is Jimtown's Class 3A playoff debut after many years as a 2A power.  In the opening game of the season in August, Jimtown won 13-10 in overtime at Northwood.  Better weather helps the Jimmies, but I like Northwood's schedule better.

Northwood 20, Jimtown 16


Culver Academy (9-2) at ANDREAN (8-3)

MERRILLVILLE (11-6-2009) An excellent match up of two private schools that play difficult schedules.  CMA lost to 1A No.1 Lafayette Catholic and Northwood (7-4).  Andrean has lost only to Munster (7-3), Lowell (10-1) and Merrillville (10-1).  Andrean QB Richard Schmidt has thrown 24 TD passes and good weather favors the 59ers.

ANDREAN 28, Culver Military Academy 17


CLASS 4A

(FW) Wayne (7-4) at Delta (11-0)

KOKOMO (11-6-2009) Delta was 12-0 last year before they lost 49-20 to Bishop Dwenger.  But Delta has a history of outstanding regular seasons and quick playoff exits.  Wayne is another survivor of the Summit Athletic Conference and they have also lost to Bishop Dwenger (11-0) and Snider (9-2).  I think Wayne has had a soft sectional so far and they won't be ready for this game, which is rated even on the Sagarin computer.

Delta 31, Wayne 24
 

Columbia City (4-7) at Bishop Dwenger (11-0)

FORT WAYNE (11-6-2009) An unfortunate match up between a team that barely stumbled in off the street and the defending semistate champion.  The Saints, who were 14-1 last year, are a big, physical team with very good speed.  Here's all you need to know.  Dwenger was 5-0 in the month of October and they shut out all five teams.  Columbia City averages 15 points a game.  They will be shut out as well.

Bishop Dwenger 38, Columbia City 0
 

Concord (8-3) at LOWELL (10-1)

LOWELL (11-6-2009) Classic matchup of the all-state runner - Lowell's Brandon Grubbe (1600 yards) and the all-state passer - Concord's Anthony Yoder (31 TD passes).  Lowell's muddy field should be harder and faster after a couple of dry days.  Lowell's secondary is supposedly a weakness, but they held pass-happy South Bend Washington (8-3) to just seven points last week.  Good weather clearly favors Concord and the points will go up on the scoreboard.  But Concord isn't good against the run.  Lowell will have to come from behind, but they will.

LOWELL 42, Concord 28


Morton (10-1) at Hobart (4-7)

HOBART  (11-6-2009) Morton has dominated a relatively weak schedule and they are on the doorstep of their first-ever sectional title.  Hobart does not have a good win all year and they survived a seven-game losing streak.  The Brickies will try to dig up the home field advantage they used to have in the old Brickie Bowl.  But the artificial turf in Hobart's new 'Brickyard' stadium actually favors Morton.

Morton 28, Hobart 10


CLASS 5A

Hamilton Southeastern (10-1) at Carmel (10-1)

CARMEL (11-6-2009) The state's top team faces a key test.  Carmel has played one of the state's premier schedules, including Fishers (9-2), Warren Central (9-2), Cathedral (10-1) and Center Grove (8-3).  Southeastern does not play in that tough Indy Metro league so, all things being equal, they can't be as good.  Carmel, a 6-time state champ, is not an offensive powerhouse this year (27 ppg.) and Southeastern has given up just 70 points all year.  This will be close.

Carmel 20, Hamilton Southeastern 14


Snider (9-2) at Warsaw (7-4)

WARSAW (11-6-2009) I'm a little surprised Warsaw is here and they better bring something to the table they haven't shown all year.  Warsaw upset Homestead (9-2) last week and they did shut out Concord 24-0 at the end of the year.  But they also lost by 34 to Plymouth.  Snider has a lot of speed, as usual, and losses only to Bishop Dwenger (11-0) and Fort Wayne South (8-2).  I think Warsaw benefited from the rain and mud last week and they're going to need to truck in some more to beat Snider.

Snider 28, Warsaw 7


Penn (10-1) at Mishawaka (10-1)

MISHAWAKA (11-6-2009) The best game in this part of the state matches the Cavemen, who broke Penn's 28-year Northern Indiana Conference winning streak last month, with Penn, a five-time state champ.  Both of these teams rely on the run and they might want to check the turf (read: mud) at Mishawaka's field.  Little PJ Warmouth (5-9, 165) has gained 1500 yards for the Cavemen, but Penn has allowed just 99 points all year.  I don't think Mishawaka is the better team.  The Cavemen can't throw and decent weather favors Penn.  Plus, I don't see Mishawaka getting an early lead on Penn again.

Penn 24,  Mishawaka 13
 

Portage (6-5) at MERRILLVILLE (10-1)

MERRILLVILLE  (11-6-2009) Jake Dixon (24 TDs) is the biggest threat in the DAC, but the Pirates have won 10 in a row since a season-opening loss to Warren Central.  Portage can score on Merrillville, but I don't think Zac Huston is a good enough passer to avoid interceptions against the Pirate defense.  This one will light up the score board.

MERRILLVILLE 37, Portage 27