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4A No. 2 Concord (12-0)at Lowell (7-5) |
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Week
13 - Class 4A, Regional Football Championship Preview|
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4A No. 2 Concord (12-0)at Lowell (7-5) |
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11-10-2006
When:
Friday, November 10, 2006
Where: Lowell High School - Route 2 (Commercial Ave.) & Holtz Road, Lowell, IN. For those of you coming from Elkhart, take the toll way east to I-65 and come south to Lowell (Route 2). Take Route 2 west two miles from I-65 to Lowell High School.
Tickets: $6 - (for everybody).
Kickoff:
7:00 p.m., CST.
Radio-TV:
WWCA (1270) AM, WTMK (88.5) FM, (WWCA will replay the game Saturday morning at
9:00 a.m., CST).
Weather: The forecast is getting worse as the game approaches. It looks like low 40s now with a light rain. Lowell weather. They don't need to throw the ball to win the game.
Parking: I am sure the parking lot at Lowell will be overflowing in good weather. But Concord may bring students in fan buses which will leave lots of room in the Lowell parking lot. As the week goes on and many hear of Concord, curiosity seeking fans may come out to see them. Lowell's dramatic 31-28 win last week will also bring out fans who have no rooting interest. There were many Munster, KV and Andrean jackets in the stands last week and the Andrean boys actually celebrated with Lowell on the field. There is a lot of rooting for the underdog here. My guess is that, unless it rains, there will be a standing room only crowd on both sides of the field.
THE SERIES: These schools are two hours apart and last year's 30-23 victory by Lowell at Concord is the only meeting. Concord held leads of 6-0, 13-10 and 20-17. But a fourth quarter rally by Lowell won it 30-23 on a six-yard run by Jeff Clemens with 52 seconds to play. Lowell defended Concord's Bobby Cira as well as anyone has. Cira was 12-of-31 for 226 yards and two TDs. Concord TB Monte Marion gained 97 yards on 12 carries. WRs James Cira and Mike Meade both gained 100 yards receiving. Lowell rushed for 282 yards.
Rivalry: ELKHART - These teams are polar opposites and it's a fun match up. I would suspect that 2A Jimtown, a team Concord beat 33-22, is the closest thing to Lowell that Concord has played. A small, quick team with a straight ahead slashing running game. Crown Point is probably the closest thing to Concord that Lowell has played and Lowell didn't do very well against the Bulldogs. Concord is a township of about 55,000 in Elkhart County on the Goshen-Elkhart border. It might be best described as the suburban area between the somewhat urban area of Goshen and the more urban area of Elkhart. The city of Elkhart sits in several townships but the largest part is in Concord Township. Concord high school is almost 90 years old and it has been a top basketball school. Division I guard Dairese Gary starts on the corner defensively for Concord. The Minutemen run a warm weather offense with four wide receivers and one running back.
In the Elkhart Truth newspaper, coach Tim Dawson said something telling in the pre-season.
"We want to run the ball," he began. "But we are who we are. I'll tell you right now, we'll be in the shot gun formation 90% of the time. The question is, can we run out of the I-back sets."
They have seen no reason to change anything. Concord thought they were headed for the 4A state finals last year. They had Lowell at home in the regional and they were confident they could be the Fort Wayne representative (Dwenger or Southside) in the semistate. The Minutemen are certainly wary of Lowell after last year. But they have to guard against thinking that they KNOW they can beat Lowell. Quarterbacks have to be confident, but Cira has been quoted as saying their offense is unstoppable. No offense is unstoppable. To be honest, this is a game where to lose, Concord has to contribute to their own demise.
It would be fun to see Concord play indoors in the RCA Dome where their spread attack would certainly shine. But they run a southern Indiana, good weather offense. Concord has to win two more games outdoors in the mud and the cold and the wind and the rain. And playing on the road after a two hour drive on a bad weather night, there has to be some doubt here.
4A Regional Championships
Concord [12-0] at LOWELL [7-5]
(Fort Wayne) Bishop Dwenger [11-1] at Muncie Central [7-5]
(Indianapolis) Cathedral [10-2] at Whiteland [10-2]
Columbus East [11-1] at (Vincennes) Lincoln [9-2]
LOWELL (7-5)
Coach: Kirk Kennedy (121-60, 16 years)
Enrollment: 1,150
2005 record: 11-4*
Sectional titles: (7) 1992, 1994, 1999, 2003, 04, 05, 06
Regional titles: (3) 1994, 1999, 2005
Semistate titles: (1) 2005
State titles: (1) 2005
*Defeated three-time defending champion Roncalli 28-27 to win the 2005 4A
state title.
Lowell Red Devils (7-5)
(L) 0-17 at Crown Point (12-0)
(W) 63-6 Calumet (2-9)
(L) 0-35 at GRIFFITH (11-1)
(L) 17-21 Morton (5-5)
(L) 0-17 at ANDREAN (8-3)
(W) 35-12 HAMMOND (2-10)
(W) 15-14 Munster (5-5)
(L) 0-7 Hobart (10-2)
(W) 47-14 at Highland (3-8)
4A Sectional 9 playoffs
(W) 24-6 Kankakee Valley (8-2)
(W) 58-6 Gary Roosevelt (1-9)
(W) 31-28 at Hobart (10-2)
4A Regional championship
11-10 (F) Concord (12-0)
Concord (12-0)
Coach: Tim Dawson (108-86, 18th year)
Enrollment: 1,462
2005 record: 10-3*
Sectional titles: (5) 1979, 1984, 1998, 2005, 2006
Regional titles: (2) 1984, 1998
Semistate titles (2) 1984, 1998
*Lost Class 4A regional 30-23 at home to eventual 4A state champion Lowell
Concord (12-0)
(W) 42-28 East Noble (6-4)
(W) 40-7 at Elkhart Memorial (3-7)
(W) 59-0 at Northwood (6-5)
(W) 38-10 Wawasee (8-3)
(W) 47-24 Goshen (5-5)
(W) 33-22 at Jimtown (10-2)
(W) 42-21 Plymouth (8-4)
(W) 40-7 at Northridge (3-7)
(W) 34-0 at Warsaw (2-9)
4A Sectional 9
(W) 61-14 at (SB) Washington (3-7)
(W) 47-10 DeKalb (5-6)
(W) 42-9 Plymouth (8-4)
4A Regional championship
11-10 (F) at Lowell (7-5)
Lowell 1,000-yard rushers (state tournament era - 34 years)
Scott Gray (2005) 323 carries, 2336 yards*
Michael Pickett (1994) 339 carries, 2,256 yards
Toby Goetz (2004) 276 carries, 1,939 yards
Matt Pernick (1996) 229 carries,1,827 yards
Michael Pickett (1993) 273 carries, 1,687 yards
Justin Henley (2002) 147 carries, 1,552 yards
Justin Henley (2003) 227 carries, 1,413 yards
Mike French (2000) 220 carries, 1,382 yards
Matt Pernick (1995) 175 carries, 1,349 yards
Mike French (1999) 226 carries, 1,280 yards
Max Znika (2006) 191 carries, 1,141 yards
Sean Anderson (2001) 242 carries, 1,048 yards
Nick Holley (1997) 131 carries, 1,014 yards
Steffan Peck (2006) 188 carries, 937 yards
* NW Indiana record
4A No. 2 CONCORD
(12-0) at LOWELL
(7-5)
CONCORD: Offense 43.8 ppg. - Defense: 12.7 ppg.
LOWELL: Offense: 24.2 ppg. - Defense: 15.3 ppg.
Sagarin
computer ratings: Concord by
18
LOWELL
- ELKHART
(11-10-2006) -
Concord
boys love nicknames, apparently. What has brought the Minutemen all this
way is the 'Green Storm', Northern Indiana's most lethal offense, led by the
Northern Lakes Conference (NLC) MVP senior Concord QB Bobby Cira, a three-year
starter. Cira has completed 186 of 280 passes for 3,213 yards and 37
touchdowns (just nine interceptions) and he has two 1,000-yard receivers.
6-foot-4 Mike Meade (64 catches, 1,314 yards, 17 TDs) and Cira's younger brother
James
Cira (62 catches, 1,015 yards, 14 TDs). When the boys in the bright green
jerseys spread the field, they can run 220-pound tailback Monte Marion (140
carries, 1,000 yards, 18 TDs).
Concord only runs Marion 12 times a game because they're in the 'shotgun' formation (The QB lines up five yards behind the line of scrimmage and takes a long snap) most of the time. They rely on the fact that they can throw the ball and they do it until they have success. Cira was 166-of-288 for 2,978 yards last season with 24 TDs and he is very accurate (66.4%) and he uses both sides of the field. Both James Cira (50-1,065) and Mike Meade (54-1,207) were over 1,000 yards in receptions last year, too. I'm sure it's happened, but I have never seen two 1,000-yards pass catchers in consecutive seasons on the high school same team. Two thirds of all completions go to two players. Marion has caught 23 passes for 389 yards. The offensive line relies on five boys and Marion to block for Bobby Cira. There won't be any help. They basically dare you to send seven pass rushers at the QB. Two-way linemen Ryan McKee (6-1, 195) and Jeremy Miller (6-1, 245) need to be mobile more than they do big on offense because they are pass blocking half the time.
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| The Minutemen's RB Monte Marion #5 (left) and QB Bob Cira #3 (right) both faced Lowell in last year's 4A Regional as juniors. Both have had excellent senior seasons in 2006. | |
Monte Marion is one of the linebackers and Tyler Huxford (6-0, 175) is a leading tackler. Meade averages 35.1 points per punt but that's not the issue. The eye-opener is that he has only punted 18 times. Concord, as a team, has punted just 19 times all year. Jeremy Howard is 63-of-67 on extra points and has kicked eight field goals. This is a 50-50 offense. The Minutemen have 343 running plays and 280 passing plays, 72 touchdowns and only 13 turnovers. Concord averages 406 yards per game. Teams average more points, but there's no balanced offense like this in the northern part of the state that I can find.
But
Jimtown 'held' Concord to 33 points and 309 yards. How? They held
the ball. The Jimmies, who again, are very much like Lowell, ran the ball
46 times for 283 yards and Jimtown trailed 24-22 with 8:02 left in the game.
All of Concord's numbers are good except for one. Strength of schedule. The 12
teams Concord has played have 67 wins and 63 losses and that's including 2A
Jimtown (10-2). But there is no indication that anyone has stopped Concord.
The only way you keep them from scoring is to hold the ball.
Concord's defense is called the 'Strike Force', a quick group that has held
seven teams to 10 points or less. But Concord has also given up 20 or more
four times.
'The Storm' is bad. I don't know about 'the Force'.
Other than Northwood, which had several players on suspension when Concord beat them, the Minutemen don't see teams like Lowell that run the ball 95% of the time. Concord reportedly uses a 3-4 defense but they may move more people up on the line to keep Lowell from grabbing three yards a run and holding the ball. The Minutemen have to look beyond the style of play and see Lowell as being just as tough as the Northern Lakes Conference teams that they have battled.
Lowell is on the rise again in November. This season is more amazing than last year when they were 1-4 and then won 10 in a row. Lowell has gone from another 1-4 start to a four game winning streak including the 31-28 road win at 4A No. 8 Hobart (10-2). Lowell's early season struggles replacing 16 starters were not a shock. The combined record of Lowell's 12 foes is 81-50 and Concord will be the sixth Top-10 team Lowell has played, if you count Hobart twice.
Senior Max Znika switched to halfback at midseason and has become Lowell's ninth (9 boys have hit the 1,000-yard mark 13 times) 1,000-yard rusher in coach Kirk Kennedy's 16 seasons in Lowell. The Devils have an anchor up front in Mike Staniewicz (6-7, 256) but they rely on timing and speed. Znika (6-0, 174) is faster than he looks and he doesn't fumble much. Steffan Peck (5-6, 165) will run counter plays when the defense keys on Znika. Peck (188-937 yards), who was the tailback at the start of the year, knows how to get over the goal line and he also has caught 11 balls for 84 yards.
In recent weeks, QB Josh Kuiper (43 carries, 102 yards) has been taking three or four yards once in awhile running behind center Drew Steuer (6-0, 220). The idea is to keep the clock running. Lowell rarely throws on first down and almost never in their own territory. If Concord watches last week's tape of the Lowell-Hobart game, they will not see Jeff Barker (6-5, 187), who is Lowell's top tackler and pass receiver. Barker became ill and left in the second quarter. Near the goal line, Barker (16 catches, 289 yards) is a tough man to cover and the big tight end has very good speed. Kuiper (40-87, 58 yards, 4 TDs, 8 INTs) is not a prolific passer, but he has made big pass plays at the end of narrow wins over Munster and Hobart that have won the game.
David Lang kicked the winning 35-yard field goal last week with one second left and he also kicked the game-winning point in the 4th quarter of Lowell's 28-27 victory at the RCA Dome last year. He's a solid kicker with 34-of-38 extra points and a 34.2 punting average. Lang probably has 35-yard field goal range on a cold night. On a 50-degree night, he might be good from 45 yards out.
Defensively is where Lowell has excelled. They gave up 28 points and almost 500 yards last week but they got four turnovers and Barker (90 tackles, 13 QB sacks) did not play in the second half. I don't think there's much secret about what Lowell wants to do against a passing team. They'll line up four rushers in the gaps between the five linemen and rush two other defenders from different angles. Lowell will move Barker around so it's harder to double team him. They might jump Justin Juarez (6-4, 197) a former defensive end up into the line. The Red Devils have some tall players up front in Staniewicz, Barker and Joe Carlson (6-2, 186). They also have very fast linebackers like Ben Rigby ((5-10, 163) and Dean Frigo (5-10, 176) who can 'show' pass coverage stances and then rush the passer.
Lowell's two sophomore inside linebackers Juarez and David Eastling must tackle Marion effectively. That's a key to this game. Lowell wants to make Concord throw enough times in long yardage situations that they give up sacks and interceptions.
The Red Devil secondary has been a strength with safety Lukas Palmer (5-11, 160)
and cornerbacks Josh Kuiper and TJ Lukasik. The outside linebackers (Rigby and
Frigo) are decent pass coverage people as well. I don't want to give Kuiper too
much credit, but Hobart's ace receiver Bobby James didn't catch a pass against
Lowell and Kuiper had partial responsibility. Kuiper and Palmer will probably
double-team Meade, who requires a physical response, and leave Lukasik alone on
James Cira. Palmer has to introduce himself to Meade early in the game to
let him know that a reception comes with a price. Linebackers will have to
cover the other Concord receivers, but Lowell's outside linebackers are
basically defensive backs anyway.
In passing situations, Concord will line up four receivers with Marion standing next to the QB Cira. You can't play the same defense against them on every play. Early in the game, especially if the weather is bad, they'll rush four and drop seven into coverage. But if (or when) Cira starts completing passes in succession, Lowell's answer may be a 6-1-4 set which will send one rusher unblocked coming in free at the QB. Concord can't allow Barker to be that rusher. Tailback Monte Marion has to pick up Lowell's blitzes. A six man rush is a gamble that would limit Cira to quick, short passes to single-covered receivers. I think Concord would eagerly accept that result and I think Lowell would like that challenge, too.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN: Lowell was very shaky in the first quarter against Hobart, but that won't happen at home. Unless Lowell fumbles early, this isn't going to be a blowout. If Jimtown can run the ball on Concord, so can Lowell. If Hobart can throw on Lowell, so can Concord.
Concord brings eight or nine men to the front like everyone does and tries to stuff Lowell into some short possessions. I like Lowell to show a deep pass early and then rely on the quick hitting running game with Max Znika on power runs and Steffan Peck on counters and misdirections. Lowell's goal early is to simply run the clock and keep Concord's offense off the field. I like the Minutemen to score early, probably on a run by Marion out of one of their passing formations. Lowell will probably treat Meade like they did Bobby James of Hobart. Lowell double-teamed James and let Hobart throw at Michael Brown. The theory being: take away the No. 1 weapon and make the other side beat you with their alternative weapons.
This game comes down to whether Lowell's pass rush can get to Cira, who throws quickly. I like Lowell's matchup here. Lowell has tall linemen like Barker (6-5, 187), Joe Carlson (6-2, 180), Justin Juarez (6-4, 197) and Mike Staniewicz (6-7, 265), who can screen or tip passes if they can keep Cira in the pocket. That's what Lowell has that Concord hasn't faced. It will bother the Minutemen QB. I think you have to concede Cira about 200 yards passing and 24 points. You have to send enough rushers after him to force mistakes in passing situations. Lowell has to gamble. If the Devils can mix different blitzes and take away Meade, they will be able to influence Concord to run the ball a little more which would keep the game close.
Concord, last year, was vulnerable to an occasional play action pass. Steffan Peck is an effective pass catcher and Barker can run away from everybody. I remember seven years ago when McCutcheon and a 6-foot-6 left-handed QB named Clayton Richard came into Lowell with top numbers. Lowell's line was able to sprint to him, make him throw early and the result was a 38-20 regional championship win. But Cira is a senior. He'll be out there at the end, firing into the Lowell secondary, looking for the big play.
Concord will almost certainly take the early lead on a Cira TD pass. They'll come out throwing. Lowell will stick to the game plan and run the football, setting up a field goal by David Lang. A tipped pass will create a short possession and Lowell will drive for a Max Znika TD, taking up much of the second quarter. Cira will lead Concord down the field and a field goal will tie the game at halftime.
A fumbled pass reception will open the door for Lowell who will score on a pass-run play from Josh Kuiper to Steffan Peck at the end of a long drive. Throwing on almost every down, Cira will take the Minutemen the length of the field to tie the game 17-17 on a run by Monte Marion. A long kick return by TJ Lukasik will set up Lowell for the go-ahead score, a run by Znika. A sack and fumble will allow Lowell to run more time off the clock and settle for a Lang field goal and a 27-17 lead. Concord will again go the length of the field in the fourth quarter with a TD pass from Cira to Mike Meade will cut the lead to three. After a Lowell punt, Concord will charge down the field as time runs out, but a sack will set them back and four incomplete passes will end the game.
In perfect conditions at home Concord wins by 14 points. But this is a mid-November championship game played in cold and rain in Lake County. Lowell's offense is perfectly suited for that. This is a bad matchup for the Minutemen who want teams to challenge them to an aerial showdown. They will be impatient. The Red Devils need three turnovers and they will get them.
Lowell stays in character, limits Concord to 10 or less possessions, rushes for 200 yards and holds on to win in the final quarter. Some underdogs need to believe they have a chance. After what Lowell has done the last two seasons, believing in themselves probably isn't a problem anymore.