Week 13 Picks:  2004 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

November 10, 2004

WEEK TWELVE (12) ANALYSIS:

The biggest upset might have been Norwell (6-5) beating Bishop Luers in Fort Wayne. New Prairie and Northwood were very close. Jefferson should have beaten Carmel but Glenn over Eastside is a surprise.

Whiting did not play well in any of their three playoff games and North Judson has a better team than Rensselaer. I hate to see the Merrillville-Portage game decided in overtime after what those on the scene said was a bad call on an onside kick.  Is there a reason games cannot be played to their natural conclusion in the state tournament? Why are basketball and baseball (softball) the only sports that are played to its natural conclusion? 

These overtime scenarios are as fake as George Bush's 'mandate.'  When is somebody in 3A going to give Bishop Chatard a game?. Chatard has not lost to a 3A foe in 4 years.

(Week One) 11 of 14, 78.5%

(Week Two) 8 of 13, 61.5%

(Week Three) 8 of 12, 66.7%

(Week Four) 11 of 12, 91.7%

(Week Five) 10 of 12, 83.3%

(Week Six) 7 of 12, 58.3 %

(Week Seven) 8 of 12, 66.7%

(Week Eight) 7 of 12, 58.3%

(Week Nine) 8 of 12, 66.7%

(Week Ten) 23 of 30, 66.7%

(Week Eleven) 15 of 20, 75.0%

(Week Twelve) 14 of 20, 70.0%

REGULAR SEASON: 77-111, 69.4%

PLAYOFFS: 52-70, 74.2%

2004 TOTAL: 129 of 181, 71.3%

WEEK THIRTEEN (13), Regionals: Nov. 12, 2004

Class 1A Regionals

No. 8 Linton (10-2) 40, Fountain Central (8-4) 35

VEEDERSBURG – Fountain Central allows more points than they score (on average). Even at home against a Linton defense that is suspect, the home team can't get it done.

Where exactly is Veedersburg???

Shenandoah (12-0) 21, Cardinal Ritter (8-4) 17

SHENANDOAH - Here's where Shenandoah's schedule could so them in. Ritter has traveled and played tough foes while Shenandoah has stoked up on weak sisters. Still, at home, and against my better judgment, I like the bigger, stronger home team to pull this one out.

Seeger (12-0) 27, Sheridan (11-1) 14

SEEGER - A feature game matching the teams rated 1 (Seeger) and 2 (Sheridan) in the computer rankings of 1A squads. No one can stop track star Eli Cook (30 TDs) , Sheridan averages 40 a game and they run the ball with 240-pound fullback Ryan Gibbons, who has run for 1,400 yards. The Patriots average 50 points a game and have been ranked No. 1 all season. They may be on a 15-game roll that cant be stopped.

West Central (10-2) 28, Adams Central (6-6) 12

MONROE – This is a Saturday night game and a tough trip for West Central but the Trojans, who average 30 a game, should not come back if they cant beat an Adams Central team that was 2-4 in their league.

Class 2A Regionals

Brownstown (11-1) 30, Southridge (8-4) 20

HUNTINGBURG - Both these teams are no great shakes defensively but Brownstown is 119-20 in the last 12 years. They are consistently at this point. There is a question of the Brownstown schedule but I'm ignoring it.

Tri-West (12-0) 35, Speedway (10-2) 13

LIZTON - Tri-West won this game 21-18 last year on the way to the 2A state title. The spread attack of Tri-West is far too much for Speedway, even on a cold night. Is this town really named Speedway? Was there a Mr. Speedway?

Heritage (12-0) 20, Eastbrook (12-0) 10

MARION – The only match of undefeated teams in the state on this night, Go with strength of schedule here and take Heritage, from the Allen County Conference. Eastbrook annually rolls through a 'girlie man' schedule only to get smoked out by a team that's played real opponents.

North Judson (11-1) 28, John Glenn (9-3) 7

WALKERTON – We have a mismatch here. Judson is significantly tougher and I honestly don't know how Glenn, a decent team but nothing more, can still be here.

Class 3A Regionals

Heritage Hills (12-0) 33, Batesville (7-5) 14

BATESVILLE - Heritage again gangstered their way through the weak Pocket Conference down in southern Indiana and they won't find Batesville as much more of a speed bump on their way to their annual whipping at the hands of seven-time state champion Bishop Chatard. Heritage Hills is rated 32 points better than Batesville on the computer. Not every game is a classic,

Bishop Chatard (10-2) 35, New Palestine (10-2) 7

NEW PALESTINE – Is it possible that New Palestine, at home, could stop the three-year reign of Chatard. Yes and no. Yes, it is possible. And, no, it just isn't going to happen. Chatard had injuries at mid-season and it now at full strength. The computer rankings say Chatard by 17. Unless there's a blizzard, it wont be that close.

New Prairie (11-1) 20, Norwell (7-5) 6

NEW CARLISLE - Both teams posted big upsets, Norwell 20-17 over Bishop Luers and New Prairie 14-11 over defending semistate champ Northwood. New Prairie is too strong for Norwell, which shouldn't even have made the playoffs.

ANDREAN (10-2) 34, Hamilton Heights (11-1) 31

MERRILLVILLE - A matchup of two all-staters in Hamilton's Dustin Shearer and Andrean's Tommy Finn. Nobody's going to stop anybody on this night. Hamilton won this game 22-21 last year but the 59ers are probably better offensively this year.

Class 4A REGIONALS

Columbus East (12-0) 24, Boonville (7-5) 20

BOONVILLE - Boonville is not in the same class as Columbus East, a perennial power., I just think the home team makes it close here. Booneville. coming off an 11-8 upset of top-10 Jasper, probably cant do it again, though.

(Indianapolis) Roncalli (10-2) 20, Mooresville (12-0) 7

MOORESVILLE – Mooresville beat Roncalli in OT this year but the Rebels beat Mooresville twice by the same score, 35-14 last season. I don't buy into the strength of Mooresville, even though they are rated No. 1. Roncalli is battle tested, with a win over 3A champ Bishop Chatard.

Muncie Central (12-0) 38, Logansport (10-2) 10

LOGANSPORT - It's been a strong comeback ride for Logansport, which was 1-9 two years ago. But Muncie Central has way too much offense here. there's no way Logansport can hang with them.

Lowell (9-3) 30, Wawasee (11-1) 27

LOWELL – One of the best game of the night. 2,300-yard rusher Jordan Swain and double-threat QB Kory Lantz against the Lowell duo of Toby Goetz (27 TDs) and Jeff Clemens (22 TDs). The powerful Northern Lakes Conference against the Lake Athletic Conference. Can Wawasee deal with the quickness of the Lowell offense and can the Red Devils handle Wawasee's potent passing attack? A dry, cold night helps Lowell to a narrow win.

Class 5A REGIONALS

Castle (9-3) 20, Columbus North (11-1) 16

NEWBURGH – This would be a significant upset but I'm not sure about the strength of Conference Indiana this season, where North was the unbeaten champion. North beat Avon 17-6 and Terre Haute North 28-14. They're not rolling over anybody. Castle plays the all-Evansville schedule and won an all-Evansville sectional. We're about to see if that matters.

Ben Davis (10-2) 17, Warren Central (11-1) 14

INDIANAPOLIS – The annual war for big school supremacy in Indianapolis. Warren Central won the first meeting 31-28 and Ben Davis' other loss was 40-39 to North Central. Warren Central is used to running up the score and they may not react well to a close game.

Penn (11-1) 26, MERRILLVILLE (11-1) 14

OSCEOLA – These things don't always carry over from week-to-week but Merrillville is giving up far too many points (20.3 in regulation time in 3 sectional games) to win at Penn. I don't think James Aldridge can run on Penn. Almost no one does. The Pirates' passing attack is not strong enough to win here.

Carmel 22, Lafayette Jefferson 19

11-5-4 at Carmel

CARMEL (8-4) 8-7-7-0 = 22

JEFFERSON (9-3) 0-3-7-9 = 19

LAFAYETTE – Jefferson rallied from a 15-3 halftime deficit and had the winning pass in the end zone on the game's final play before Carmel Db Brian Bradshaw snatched it away from Jeff WR Phil DeFabio.

Lafayette's Will Bowman (226-354, 3,070 yards, 30 TDs, 15 INTs) almost put the Greyhounds in the pound with 26-of-45 passing for 280 yards. Carmel rushed for 259 yards with Chris Chavis grabbing 110 yards on 11 carries to boost his team to a 22-3 edge with 15 minutes to go.

But Carmel's offense went home before they did and Jeff's passing dominated the final moments of the game.

This was a strength of schedule game, in some respects.

Carmel's losses have come to Lawrence North, North Central, Ben Davis and Warren Central, teams with a combined record of 33-12. That's why the Greyhounds could shake up the state with an upset of No. 1 Snider (12-0) Friday.

The final eight in the 5A bracket are all classic power teams. All the big time passers are out in 5A.

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Revised: November 10, 2004 .