Week 13 Football Picks

WEEK 12, 2007 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 4; Right - 12 = 75.0%
The Pick	The Result
South Newton 42, Triton 14	Wrong... Triton 36-21
Adams Central 21, Churubusco 7	Wrong... Churubusco 17-14
Wheeler 35, Delphi 20	Correct... Wheeler 28-7
Lewis Cass 27, Manchester 14	Correct... Lewis Cass 42-14
Western 49, Twin Lakes 14	Correct... Western 12-7
(FW) Concordia 36, Bellmont 21	Correct... Concordia 34-14
St. Joseph's 28, Northwood 24	Correct... St. Joseph's 41-27
Andrean 42, Clark 30	Correct... Andrean 49-34
Muncie South 35, Jay County 28	Wrong... Jay County 27-21
Bishop Dwenger 42, DeKalb 14	Correct... Bishop Dwenger 52-20
Lowell 31, Concord 28	Correct... Lowell 31-21
Hobart 27, Griffith 17	Wrong... Griffith 17-14
Carmel 42, Harrison 0	Correct... Carmel 49-7
Snider 50, Warsaw 12	Correct... Snider 52-14
Penn 24, Goshen 3	Correct... Penn 13-3
Merrillville 26, Lake Central 0	Correct... Merrillville 30-6

'Championship Night One' - WEEK 12 (Twelve) Recap - 11-2-2007: I don't know what they did at Triton about five weeks ago, but they have not been the same team in the playoffs (3-0) that they were during the regular season (3-6). Must be a story there. Churubusco scored 17 on Adams Central, a team that hadn't given up more than 14 all year. Jay County-Muncie South apparently went down to the wire, as did Hobart and Griffith where Griffith wins on a last second field goal. Some weeks you see where you could have picked every game right. But if they played again every week until Christmas, I'd still pick South Newton (10-2) to beat Triton (6-6) at South Newton. I still don't know what happened there.

The best pick of the week? None were rocket science. But the score picks in a half dozen games were pretty close, which to be honest, they should be this late in the year. Actually, if a Concord kid doesn't drop a pass in the end zone in the final minute, the score of Lowell's win over Concord would have been exact. And the 42-point spread for Carmel-Harrison was exactly correct. I'm still looking for that game where I pick the exact correct score. Haven't had one yet this year and it's getting late.

2007 (Week 1) 8 of 13   = 66.7%
2007 (Week 2) 8 of 11   = 72.7%
2007 (Week 3) 8 of 12   = 66.7%
2007 (Week 4) 10 of 11   = 90.9%
2007 (Week 5) 6 of 10 = 60.0%
2007 (Week 6) 6 of 10 = 60.0%
2007 (Week 7) 10 of 10 = 100.0%
2007 (Week 8) 6 of 10 = 60.0%
2007 (Week 9) 9 of 10 = 90.0%

Playoffs
2007 (week 10) 23 of 28   = 82.1%
2007 (week 11) 12 of 16 = 75.0%
2007 (week 11) 12 of 16 = 75.0%

2007 (Regular Season) 71 of 97 = 73.2%
2007 (playoffs) 47 of 60 = 78.3%
2007 (overall) 118 of 157 = 75.1%

2006 (final) OVERALL : 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%

Northwest Indiana
WEEK 13 (THIRTEEN) PICKS, 11-09-2007

MERRILLVILLE (11-09-2007) - The 13th week is traditionally very unlucky for anyone trying to pick games, because except for the geographic insanity of Sectionals 9 and 10 in Class 4A, this is the first time some teams travel outside of their area all year. Class 5A in the north is a good example because Merrillville's defense has been dominant against 12 foes, but now they see Penn, which has not lost in their area. Both sides have beaten Indianapolis schools so we don't know how good they are.

The same is true in 3A where St. Joseph's and Andrean have been very good in their own little world. We'll find out a lot about them.

Downstate, I'm intrigued by the 3A and 4A southern games. Danville carries an 11-game winning streak to 3A state champ Bishop Chatard (9-3), which has had offensive struggles in the post-season. And 4A No. 5 Columbus East (11-1) and 4A No. 2 Reitz (12-0) meet Saturday afternoon in Evansville to settle their difference of opinion.

In 5A, did anyone notice that Snider (11-1) has scored 50 or more points four weeks in row? I'm certain the folks at Carmel (10-2) did. Carmel goes to Snider Friday night and I can guarantee you Snider will not score 50 points this time. You've always got to go out on a limb when you pick regional championship games.

Class 1A - Triton (6-6) at Churubusco (10-2)

CHURUBUSCO - Churubusco averages 35 points a game. They've lost only to two good teams, Lakeville (7-3) and Fairfield (10-1). They are at home and they should win decisively, but I cant explain how Triton, which is a large 1A school (used to be 2A) is winning these playoff game so decisively. Triton outscored three sectional foes 140-34. They had 340 yards rushing on South Newton. I'm still picking against them, but with a little more hesitance.

Churubusco 28, Triton 20

Class 1A - Sheridan (12-0) at Tri-County (9-3)

WOLCOTT - Did you know Sheridan has won 33 games in a row and is the two-time defending Class 1A state champ? I did. But did you known Sheridan was 1-10 in 2002? I didn't. The Blackhawks have a dominant running game and a 15-game playoff winning streak. Tri-County has won its last two games 23-21 and 16-14. On the computer, this is a 29-point game. I think you know what's coming here.

Sheridan 42, Tri-County 14

Class 2A - Northwestern (8-4) at Bishop Luers (8-4)

FORT WAYNE - Luers was held to 47 yards rushing by Jimtown, but Luers won anyway 24-17. Oddly, Jimtown has never beaten Luers at Jimtown. QB Tim Schaefer was 12-of-19 for 197 yards and Northwestern has to deal with a balanced attack. Three weeks ago, I explained how since the Summit Athletic Conference (SAC) has 10 teams, league members do not play any games out of town until the playoffs and you don't know how good they are. Now it's three weeks later and Bishop Luers (2A), Concordia Lutheran (3A), Bishop Dwenger (4A) and Snider (5A), four of the five first division finishers in the SAC are still playing. It was a very good year in Fort Wayne. As Northwestern, which barely beat Elwood (6-6) last week, is about to find out.

Bishop Luers 31, Northwestern 14

Class 2A - Lewis Cass (10-2) at Wheeler (11-1)

UNION TOWNSHIP - Here's a very difficult game to call. Wheeler beat three sub-.500 teams to get this far, but they are at home. Cass has dominated every 1A or 2A team they have faced and they spanked undefeated Rochester (9-1) 28-14 three weeks ago. Bearcat senior Harold Branch (5-11, 215) has 24 TDs and he can score on almost anybody, but I don't know how much they get the ball on this night. This is a wing-T power team and they ALWAYS win. I had no idea that Cass has won 10 or more five consecutive years. The Kings are 76-17 in this decade. This game will break big one way or another and I think Wheeler will bow down to the king.

Lewis Cass 28, Wheeler 7

Class 3A - Mt. Vernon (8-4) at Heritage Hills (12-0)

LINCOLN CITY - No one has had the regular season success that Heritage Hills has. In this decade, Heritage Hills has compiled six undefeated 9-0 regular season. They annually whip tradition-rich Jasper, the only 4A school they play. They are 101-7 in this decade, the best record in the state of Indiana. It is almost a mid-November given that Heritage Hills plays Bishop Chatard in the 3A Southern Semistate every year. That game is on-line again, and with all due respect to a Mt. Vernon team, which defeated three sub-.500 teams in the sectional, Heritage Hills will be there.

Heritage Hills 24, Mt. Vernon 7

Class 3A - Danville (11-1) at Bishop Chatard (9-3)

INDIANAPOLIS - Danville has been good every week this year, but its 'Judgment Day' as they take the long walk to Indianapolis for what typically is an execution against the eight-time state champions. But Danville has won 11 in a row and they have 16 starters back from the team that lost 41-20 to Chatard in the 2006 Sectional championship. QB Colton Cooper (158-257, 2,121 yards, 21 TDs, 10 INTs - 11 games) is a double-threat runner and passer and he'll challenge Chatard to shut him down again. Danville in anchored by senior tackle Karl Schoening (6-5, 335). Danville has been eliminated six years in a row by Chatard at the sectional level. Chatard is led by sophomore halfback Ari Pappas who has 1,301 yards on 198 carries. One of the basic rules of handicapping Indiana high school football is to never go against the Indianapolis private schools late in the state tournament. But I'm going to break that rule here.

Danville 21, Bishop Chatard 17

Class 3A - Western (9-3) at Concordia Lutheran (8-4)

FORT WAYNE - Concordia outscored three foes 117-35 at the sectional and they are one of the 'Fort Wayne Four', the Four Summit Athletic Conference teams that are still alive in the fourth week of the state tournament. Since a 55-7 loss to 5A Snider (11-1) in August, Concordia has allowed just 15 points a game against some high-scoring foes. Western has barely survived 17-14 and 12-7 the last two weeks. That won't get it done this Friday. Western has a power running game, but they can't come from behind and they will be behind.

Concordia Lutheran 31, Western 21

Class 3A - (SB) St. Joseph's (10-2) at Andrean (9-3)

MERRILLVILLE - The challenge for Andrean is to stop St. Joseph's tailback Jordan Taylor (6-2, 210), who carried 38 times for a shocking 321 yards in a 41-27 win against 2005 state champ Northwood last week. The Niners have QB Austin Sutter, who has tossed for 2,000 yards and he'll do well because St. Joe gave up 266 yards passing last week to Northwood QB Skyler Titus. But Andrean gave up 533 yards last week to Clark. I'm not sure the 59ers survive at home here.

St. Joseph's 35, Andrean 28

Class 4A - Columbus East (11-1) at (Evansville) Reitz (12-0)

EVANSVILLE - One of two 4A Saturday playoff games (the wave of the future) and this is a blockbuster where No. 5 East, which is 45-5 in the last four years travels to No. 2 Reitz, which returned 17 starters from last year's sectional title team. Some say Reitz is the state title favorite in 4A because they have been a 5A school for a few years. Supporting that theory was Reitz performance at their first 4A sectional in years where they trampled the field by a combined score of 129-21. But East has won 10 in a row and they blasted undefeated Shelbyville 28-7 last week. But somebody has to go here and its not going to be Reitz.

(Evansville) Reitz 31, Columbus East 17

Class 4A - Jay County (9-3) at Bishop Dwenger (12-0)

FORT WAYNE - Here's another Saturday game, although this will be a Saturday night contest. I'm not exactly sure where Jay County is. The map says its the county northeast of Muncie on the Ohio state line. But if I've ever been there, I was lost. It's been a very good year for them, but it ends here. Jay County allows 18 points a game and is giving up about 30 pounds a man on both lines. Dwenger wide receiver John Goodman (6-4, 195) is a game-breaker who has signed to play at Notre Dame. The only thing more certain than a 6-foot-4 gamebreaker who will play almost immediately at Notre Dame is that Dwenger wins this game decisively.

Bishop Dwenger 42, Jay County 7

Class 4A - (Indianapolis) Cathedral (10-2) at Westfield (9-3)

WESTFIELD - If the Reitz folks think they are the 4A state favorites and Dwenger thinks they are the state 4A favorite, where does the leave Cathedral, the defending 4A state champ and a six-time champ? Cathedral QB Andrew Pimentel has thrown for 21 TDs and junior defensive end Kakpindi Jamiru (5-9, 200), one of the state most unique players, must get special attention after a state-best 21 sacks in 2006. Jamiru has been 'held' to 10 sacks this year. Westfield's Jared Heinz (5-10, 180) has 1,500 yards rushing, but this isn't that close a game. Cathedral plays at another level of competition and that will show up here.

Cathedral 27, Westfield 8

Class 4A - Lowell (11-1) at Griffith (9-3)

GRIFFITH - Unlike the other three 4A games, I don't think anybody here considers themselves a state title favorite. But this is the only game left in 4A where the two teams have met before. Griffith beat Lowell 29-28 at Lowell on September 7 and Lowell has not lost since that night. The Panthers nipped Hobart 17-14 on a last second field goal and they barely held off Morton 37-34. This is Lowell's third consecutive playoff road game, but Red Devil halfback Brandon Grubbe, who has gained 1,480 yards and 21 TDs, carried the ball only once in the earlier game. Griffith is a young team with a lot of spirit but Lowell has some senior players who are 12-1 in playoff games and 6-0 in road playoff games.

Lowell 27, Griffith 10

Class 5A - Columbus North (11-1) at Jeffersonville (10-2)

JEFFERSONVILLE - North has only a 33-14 loss to 5A No.1 Pike (12-0). Jeffersonville losses are to the two teams that meet in the 4A regional Saturday afternoon: Columbus East (11-1) and Evansville Reitz (12-0). Columbus North lost the regional title game 56-0 to Warren Central last year, but they are back with 16 starters off that team. North is led by all-state QB Mike Hladik (6-4, 235), a Division 1 recruit. I think Jeffersonville, which has scored 40 or more seven times this year, will be a little outgunned here.

Columbus North 41, Jeffersonville 27

Class 5A - (Indianapolis) Pike (12-0) at Hamilton Southeastern (10-2)

FISHERS - Here's another top matchup as Pike puts the best season in school history on the line against Southeastern which KO'd four-time defending champion Warren Central last week. Pike senior Josh Carpenter (6-1, 175) has thrown for almost 2,000 yards and 20 TDs. Sophomore Matt Ripp ran for 1,000 yards for Southeastern and defensively, they were the first to contain Warren Central in the post-season in as many years, winning 31-10. I'm not sold on Pike and the passing game this late in the year. Southeastern pulls off another upset here.

Hamilton Southeastern 27, (Indianapolis) Pike 20

Class 5A - Carmel (10-2) at (Fort Wayne) Snider (11-1)

FORT WAYNE - Snider averages almost 45 points a game, but Carmel back Aaron King (5-11, 220) has scored four TDs in each of the last three games. Carmel lost 32-31 to Central Grove and 28-27 to Ben Davis. Snider has scored 49 or more points seven times this year, but they were blown out 32-13 by 4A No. 1 Bishop Dwenger (12-0). The other three Summit Athletic Conference (SAT) teams will win, but I'd be surprised if Snider did. The SAC is tough, but the Indy Metro Conference where Carmel plays is even tougher.

Carmel 38, (FW) Snider 27

Class 5A - Penn (12-0) at Merrillville (11-1)

MERRILLVILLE - Penn has allowed only 17 points in three post-season games, but Merrillville has allowed only 13 points in the playoffs and the Pirates have not been scored on in the second half in the post-season. Penn halfback Steve Depositar (5-9, 165) carried 23 times for 167 yards last week in a 13-3 win over Goshen, but the Kingsmen have been struggling on offense. Merrillville led Lake Central 10-6 at the half and won 30-6. I think the schedule the Pirates have played this year is stronger than Penn's and Merrillville is at home.

Merrillville 23, Penn 13