Week 13 Picks:  2009 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith

November 12, 2009

 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK TWELVE  (12), 2009 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 4; Right - 16 = 80.0%;  Play-offs: 44-20 = 68.7%; Regular Season: 85-28 = 75.1%; TOTAL: 129-48 = 72.8%
The Pick	The Result
CLASS 1A
Whiting 28, Culver 21	Wrong... Culver 48-21
Lafayette Catholic 56, Caston 0	Lafayette Catholic 58-31
Southern Wells 30, Southwood 14	Southern Wells 17-3
Knightstown 35, Northeastern 7	Knightstown 34-8
CLASS 2A
Northeastern 29, Lewis Cass 21	Wrong... Lewis Cass 28-7
Bishop Luers 42, Winchester 14	Bishop Luers 68-0
Fairfield 42, Bremen 14	Fairfield 28-27
Rensselaer 27, Wheeler 14	Rensselaer 21-18
CLASS 3A
West Lafayette 34, Frankfort 20	West Lafayette 54-22
Eastbrook 27, Bellmont 21	Eastbrook 34-0
Northwood 20, Jimtown 16	Wrong... Jimtown 16-7
ANDREAN 28, Culver Military Academy 17	ANDREAN 48-7
CLASS 4A
Delta 31, Wayne 24	Delta 18-6
Bishop Dwenger 38, Columbia City 0	Bishop Dwenger 56-0
LOWELL 42, Concord 28	LOWELL 60-23
Morton 28, Hobart 10	Morton 42-0
CLASS 5A
Carmel 20, Hamilton Southeastern 14	Carmel 17-9
Snider 28, Warsaw 7	Snider 33-20
Penn 24, Mishawaka 13	Wrong... Mishawaka 24-21
MERRILLVILLE 37, Portage 27	MERRILLVILLE 9-3

 

WEEK (12) TWELVE ANALYSIS:  I'm back on track, finally.  If you don't have a good idea of who's going to beat who by week 12, you aren't following it closely.  I thought things were set up for Whiting to defeat Culver.  But clearly, they weren't.  Northeastern didn't show up against Lewis Cass so maybe I didn't know much about that one.  I would suggest to you that Northwood is a better team than Jimtown, but Jimtown has won very close games from them twice.  And I'm still not sure Mishawaka is better than Penn.  I think Merrillville (Mishawaka's next foe) may have gotten a break.  The best pick?  Probably Rensselaer over unbeaten Wheeler.  That's a judgment made on strength of schedule, which is the basis of competitive team sports.

 

Mr. Picker (Through the Years)

2008 (final) OVERALL:  145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%
 

Class 2A

(2A) Mater Dei [7-5] at Paoli [12-0]

PAOLI (11-13-2009) Very interesting game because Paoli has played 10 games against 1A and 2A schools, while Mater Dei played all larger schools (3A, 4A and 5A) all season until the sectional, which they won easily, including a 14-0 road win at South Spencer (8-3).  Paoli has given up 80 points all season, but I can't judge their schedule.  If there's an upset this week, here it is.

Mater Dei 27, Paoli 20


(2A) Monrovia [12-0] at Ritter [11-1]

INDIANAPOLIS (11-13-2009) Great-looking matchup of the 2008 state champion and the team presently rated No. 2.  Monrovia has not given up more than 16 points all season.  Ritter is 49-7 in the last two years and their only loss was to 3A Brebuef (10-2).  How many times do I have to tell you?  Monrovia is more unknown than the Chicago Blacks Hawks roster.  Never go against the Indianapolis private schools late in the tournament.

Ritter 27, Monrovia 21


(2A) Bishop Luers [7-5] at Lewis Cass [9-3]

WALTON (11-13-2009) This is a no-contest game.  Luers plays the toughest schedule of anyone left in the 2A tourney.  Two of the Luers losses are to 5A Snider (11-1) and 4A Bishop Dwenger (12-0).  Cass averages only 28 points a game and that included 67 points against Taylor.  Luers shut out Cass 14-0 in the regional two years ago.  Luers has won 13 regional and seven state championships.  Cass could get whipped like the Chicago Bears here.

Bishop Luers 34, Lewis Cass 7


(2A) Fairfield [10-2] at Rensselaer [10-2]

RENSSELAER (11-13-2009) The Bombers expected to be here.  Fairfield plays a bad schedule and are in the 'we want to prove ourselves' mode.'  With Jimtown out of Class 2A, Rensselaer has to feel they have a chance since the Jimmies eliminated Fairfield two times in the last four years.  This is close and low-scoring and you tend to go with the home team.

Rensselaer 16, Fairfield 14


CLASS 3A

(3A) Heritage Hills [11-1] at Evansville Memorial [9-3]

EVANSVILLE (11-13-2009) Heritage Hills is one of those traditional small-town schools that consistently turns out football winners.  They have won eight regionals, but only one state title and the reason is:  They are limited talent-wise.  But the Patriots usually win until they face better talent and then they lose.  That seems obvious, but most teams don't do that.  Memorial has only lost to larger (than 3A) schools.  I think this is a weekend that the Patriots go down.  In Indianapolis and in Evansville.

Evansville Memorial 28, Heritage Hills 24

(3A) Bishop Chatard [11-1] at Batesville [11-0]

BATESVILLE (11-13-2009) Batesville's Bulldogs have a good team, but it may not matter here.  Chatard is the nine-time state champion and they've lost only to 4A No. 1 Cathedral. Batesville got a first-round bye in their sectional and they are at home, but come on.  Chatard has won seven consecutive regional championships and Batesville can't be too confident here, especially in good weather.  Why do I have to repeat myself?  Never go against the Indianapolis private school late in the season.

Bishop Chatard 21, Batesville 0

(3A) ANDREAN [9-3] at Jimtown [11-1]

ELKHART (11-13-2009) This is Jimtown's debut in the Class 3A playoffs and they have been very good in low-scoring close games.  Andrean's Richard Schmidt has 26 TD passes, including nine to Richard Skinner (51 catches - 930 yards).  Jimtown must run the ball and control the clock and even Lowell struggled to do that.  The one result for the Jimmies is a 21-point loss at Concord.  In dry weather, that's what should happen against Andrean as well.

ANDREAN 35, Jimtown 14 
  
 

(3A) West Lafayette [12-0] at Eastbrook [12-0]

WEST LAFAYETTE (11-13-2009) Both these teams play sissy schedules.  Neither has faced any Class 4A or Class 5A schools.  So they're both suspect.  WL's Danny Wodlicka may be the only player in the state who has run for 20 TDs (actually 22 TDs) and rushed 20 TDs (and 1,100 yards).  I just cant believe these schools can't find any 5A teams to play.

West Lafayette 33, Eastbrook 21


CLASS 4A

(4A) New Palestine [10-2] at Cathedral [11-1]

INDIANAPOLIS (11-13-2009) New Palestine has had a good season with losses only to Delta (12-0) and Batesville (11-0).  They average 30 points a game and they have nice boys.  None of that will matter Friday night.  Cathedral is scary.  They have defeated 3A No. 1 Chatard 31-7.  They have defeated 5A No. 1 Carmel 7-3.  The Irish have beaten three winning teams in sectional play and this class won the 2006 and 2008 state championships.  New Palestine has every reason to believe they can win but they won't.

Cathedral 28, New Palestine 7

     
(4A) Reitz Memorial [12-0] at East Central [10-2]

EAST CENTRAL (11-14-2009) Here's another team that doesn't know what it's up against.  Reitz is the 2007 state champion.  East Central, which hosts this game late Saturday afternoon, barely got by Shelbyville (8-3) by four last week.  Reitz, which bombed 4A No. 3 Jasper 42-6 last week, has allowed only 83 points in 12 games and this schools is 36-2 in the last three seasons.  Reitz is too fast for East Central.

Reitz 35, East Central 7


(4A) LOWELL [11-1] at Morton [11-1]

HAMMOND (11-13-2009) This is the only rematch in the state Friday night.  Because of the illogical structure of 4A Sectional 10, Lowell and Morton, just 15 miles apart, meet in regional play.  Lowell won the first game in August 35-26 and Lowell's 1900-yard rusher Brandon Grubbe didn't play.  But Morton has won 10 in a row and they will have a large home crowd behind them.  They can stop Lowell's running game, but they can't do it for four quarters.

LOWELL 23, Morton 10

(4A) Delta [12-0] at Bishop Dwenger [12-0]

FORT WAYNE (11-13-2009) Delta is in the wrong place at the wrong time.  Dwenger (and this is not a misprint) has shut out its last six opponents.  A few call this the Saints' greatest all-time team and Dwenger has won 15 regional titles.  Delta plays in the famous North Central Conference.  But the North Central Conference is famous for basketball.  Dwenger is the three-time defending undefeated champion of Fort Wayne's hard core Summit Athletic Conference.  Delta is going to get whipped like a dusty rug.

Bishop Dwenger 42, Delta 7


CLASS 5A
 

(5A) Warren Central [10-2] at Brownsburg [9-3]

BROWNSBURG (11-13-2009) Warren Central is one of Indiana's premier programs with seven state titles.  They have defeated Merrillville (11-1) and Center Grove (9-3), but what's more impressive are the losses: To 5A No. 1 Carmel and 4A No. 1 Cathedral.  Brownsburg allows 16 points a game, which is a little high for a regional qualifier.  The Bulldogs do not belong here.

Warren Central 42, Brownsburg 21


(5A) Floyd Central [9-3] at Center Grove [9-3]

CENTER GROVE (11-13-2009) Floyd Central?  Get real.  I didn't even know they were 5A.  Center Grove shut down undefeated Columbus East (10-1) 21-14 two weeks ago.  Two of their losses are to Carmel and Warren Central.  Floyd Central defeated Castle 42-32 last week.  That dog won't hunt.  If Floyd Central gives up 32 this week, they lose 32-0.

Center Grove 32,  Floyd Central 0

  
(5A) MERRILLVILLE [11-1] at Mishawaka [11-1]

MISHAWAKA (11-13-2009) Folks tell me that Mishawaka can hang with Merrillville on a dry field at full strength, but I don't see it.  But is Merrillville at full strength?  QB Zach Raspopovich and WR Chris Matthews left last week's game with injures.  I don't see Mishawaka scoring more than two TDs on Merrillville.  But the Pirates may be shorthanded.

Merrillville 20,  Mishawaka 14


(5A) Carmel [11-1] at (FW) Snider [10-2]

FORT WAYNE (11-13-9) This is a great match up and a rematch from 2008 when Carmel won the regional 24-21.  Snider needs good weather and a dry field and they will get it.  Carmel is very physical, but they've struggled scoring with just 45 points in three playoff games.  The first number one team gets beat here.

Snider 28, Carmel 20