Week 13 NW Indiana HS Football Picks

'Mr. Picker' WEEK-12, 2011 Football Picks in Review: Nov. 4-5, 2011 Wrong - 6; Right - 8 = 57.1%
The Pick	The Result
South Newton 28, Culver 7	South Newton 27-21
Lafayette Catholic 42, Caston 0	Lafayette Catholic 69-8
North Newton 28, Wheeler 20	(wrong) Wheeler 48-6
Bremen 42, Cass 14	Bremen 28-6
St. Joseph's 28, Marian 20	St. Joseph's 21-0
Jimtown 21, Garrett 14	Jimtown 34-14
Bishop Dwenger 27, Leo 16	(wrong) Leo 35-14
Concord 17, Northwood 14	(wrong) Northwood 26-13
Mishawaka 35, Washington 28	(wrong) SBW 37-19
Griffith 27, Morton 16	(wrong) Morton 27-26
HSE 26, Fishers 10	HSE 35-10
Snider 33, Kokomo 14	Snider 52-28
Penn 35, Carroll 13	Penn 31-8
MERRILLVILLE 21, CP 17	(wrong) CP 42-21

WEEK TWELVE (12) ANALYSIS: The wins by Wheeler, Washington and Griffith were the favorites winning, but I'm very surprised that Northwood handled Concord so easily. Northwood is a glorified 3A school. I thought Mishawaka was better than Washington but they didn't prove it. And I'm still surprised that Leo beat Bishop Dwenger. That's the biggest upset here. Crown Point has always been able to hang with Merrillville, but the Pirates lost a 14-point lead.

BEST PICK: To be honest, there wasn't one. The eight picks were favorites winning. Nothing special.

2011 Regular Season, 9-weeks: 69 of 99 = 69.7%
2011 Playoffs: 44 of 60 = 73.3%
2011 OVERALL, 12-weeks: 113 of 159 = 71.0%

Mr. Picker (Through the Years)
2010 (final) OVERALL: 135 of 184 = 73.3%
2009 (final) OVERALL: 154 of 212 = 72.6%
2008 (final) OVERALL: 145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL: 143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL: 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%

WEEK (13) THIRTEEN: This is usually a challenging week to pick games because you don't know exactly what you have. Some teams won their biggest game last week and they are happy with the sectional title. Others may just be getting started. This is also the week when you leave your area and you find out if you are really good and if your entire area was strong.

(1A) Lafayette Catholic [12-0] at South Newton [11-1]:

KENTLAND (11-11-2011) I can't come up with a way South Newton wins this game. Lafayette Catholic is the two-time defending undefeated state 1A champ and they've only given up 89 points all season. The Rebels have a strong offense, but they need a snowstorm to stop Lafayette Catholic on this night.

Lafayette Catholic 42, South Newton 14

(1A) Adams Central [7-5] at Sheridan [9-3]:

SHERIDAN (11-11-2011) Sheridan barely won in overtime last week, but they haven't lost to any 1A or 2A teams. Adams Central had not defeated a team with a winning record all year until they inexplicably bombed North Miami (8-4) last week. That won't happen again.

Sheridan 35, Adams Central 14

(2A) Bremen [12-0] at Wheeler [12-0]:

UNION TOWNSHIP (11-11-2011) The state's only match of undefeated teams and both have questions. Wheeler, which has outscored 12 foes 498-53, had not beat a quality team all season until they stopped 2A No. 2 Andrean 12-7 in the sectional quarterfinal using eight Andrean turnovers. But Bremen, which returns 18 seniors off last year's 9-4 squad, didn't face a winning team in the sectional. Bremen QB Nate Leeper can control this game.

Bremen 28, Wheeler 14

(2A) Bishop Luers [11-0] at Tipton [8-4]:

TIPTON (11-11-2011) Luers is the reigning two-time state champ and you will see their record listed at 10-1 in other places. That 'loss' was a 53-0 win over 5A Fort Wayne South, a game which Luers forfeited due, I believe, to an ineligible player. Luers is the undefeated champion of the powerful Summit Athletic Conference and they are 5-0 against 5A schools. Luers won this match up 55-14 last season and, barring a blizzard Friday, this game can't be much different.

Bishop Luers 40, Tipton 14

(3A) South Bend St. Joseph's [10-2] at Jimtown [10-2]:

ELKHART (11-11-2011) Jimtown has lost only to sectional champs Bremen (12-0) and Northwood, but St. Joe's only losses are to Marian and Penn (12-0). This game is too close to call. St. Joe's stronger schedule may be balanced by Jimtown playing at home on a night when throwing the ball may be difficult. The Jimmies don't need to throw.

Jimtown 21, St. Joseph's 20

(3A) Bellmont [6-6] at West Lafayette [11-1]:

WEST LAFAYETTE (11-11-2011) This does not look like much of a game. West Lafayette has lost only to Lafayette Catholic (12-0), the almost certain 1A state champ. Belmont can thank the format that they're here and it's a mixed blessing. Bellmont is near the Ohio state line, while West Lafayette is 30-40 miles from the Illinois state line. Bellmont's got to come all the way across the state to get beat.

West Lafayette 35, Bellmont 7

(4A) South Bend Washington [9-3] at Morton [11-1]:

HAMMOND (11-11-2011) A great match up of Morton all-area defensive back Alfred Dickey and SBW all-state receiver Gehrig Dieter. These are two teams that don't try to fool you. They want an athletic contest and they will match their strength and speed against yours. Morton is home for the fourth week in a row and SBW has to travel two hours. SBW can throw on anyone but they will give up turnovers to Morton.

Morton 37, SBW 34

(4A) Leo [12-0] at NorthWood [9-3]:

NAPPANNEE (11-11-2011) I'm shocked at how Leo just buried Bishop Dwenger last week and, while Northwood was impressive against Concord, I don't know how much more they have here. Leo has scored 30 or more 11 times and I just don't see Northwood stopping them, even at home.

Leo 28, Northwood 7

(5A) Hamilton Southeastern [11-1] at (FW) Snider [8-4]:

FORT WAYNE (11-11-2011) Snider is an option running team and that's good on a cold night at home. HSE lost starting QB Jake Jones (1,800 yard passing in 11 games) to a broken ankle last week. They could win without him, but on the road in Fort Wayne, they won't. Remember, the entire state tournament is sponsored by the Indianapolis Colts, a team that knows what happens when you lose your star QB.

Snider 28, HSE 20

(5A) CROWN POINT (9-3) at Penn (12-0)
OSCEOLA (11-11-2011) The first-ever meeting between these two will see if CP can derail Penn's drive for a 6th state title. Soph Tristan Peterson ran for 200 yards last week for CP, but the Kingsmen and the 'Wild Bunch' defense pride themselves on stopping the run. CP's Jake Jatis is 3-0 in the playoffs (replacing injured starter Joe Hopman) after not starting a game all season. Again, eventually losing the starting QB catches up to you.

Penn 23, CROWN POINT 13