Week 13 NW Indiana HS Football Picks

'Mr. Picker' WEEK 12, 2010 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 6; Right - 8 = 57.1%
The Pick	The Result
(1A, Sect. 33) Culver 28, South Central 21	WRONG ... South Central 20-7
(1A, Sect. 34) Lafayette Catholic 42, Pioneer 6	Lafayette Catholic 40-12
(2A, Sect. 25) Rensselaer 28, Wheeler 13	Rensselaer 28-0
(2A, Sect. 26) Bremen 35, Garrett 14	Bremen 35-21
(3A, Sect. 17) ANDREAN 28, John Glenn 14	ANDREAN 56-14
(3A, Sect. 18) Jimtown 21, St. Joseph's 13	WRONG ... St. Joe 24-22
(4A, Sect. 12) New Haven 35, Delta 21	New Haven 28-7
(4A, Sect. 11) Bishop Dwenger 59, Columbia City 20	Dwenger 50-7
(4A, Sect. 10) Concord 27, Clay 14	Concord 28-21
(4A, Sect. 9) Morton 55, West Side 12	Morton 54-20
(5A, Sect. 4) Hamilton SE 28, Fishers 14	WRONG ... Fishers 28-21
(5A, Sect. 3) Homestead 28, Snider 26	WRONG ... 37-29
(5A, Sect. 2) Penn 20, Mishawaka 14	WRONG ... Mishawaka 14-7 (OT)
(5A, Sect. 1) CROWN POINT 14, Valparaiso 9	WRONG ... Valpo 16-6

2010, Week-12: 8 of 14 = 57.1%
2010, Week-11: 17 of 20 = 85.0%
2010, Week-10: 22 of 28 = 78.5%
2010, Week-9: 8 of 10 = 80.0%
2010, Week-8: 4 of 10 = 40.0%
2010, Week-7: 10 of 11 = 90.9%
2010, Week-6: 5 of 9 = 55.0%
2010, Week-5: 5 of 10 = 50.0%
2010, Week-4: 8 of 10 = 80.0%
2010, Week-3: 8 of 11 = 72.7%
2010, Week-2: 8 of 10 = 80.0%
2010, Week-1: 8 of 12 = 66.7%
2010 Season: 111 of 155 = 71.6%

Mr. Picker (Through the Years)
2009 (final) OVERALL: 154 of 212 = 72.6%
2008 (final) OVERALL: 145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL: 143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL: 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%

WEEK TWELVE (12) Analysis: In all the years I have done this, I have never missed four 4A games. Penn was leading Mishawaka with one minute to play. Crown Point had all kinds of chances to beat Valpo. But 'if' and 'maybe' and 'possibly' just didn't get it done. 3A St. Joe over Jimtown reminds you that Jimtown is really a glorified 2A school. Short of playing in a blizzard, Pioneer will never beat Lafayette Catholic again. It's also unfair for Columbia City Playing Bishop Dwenger. Best pick of the week? Probably Bremen over Garrett. I don't know anybody who didn't pick Rensselaer over undefeated Wheeler.

WEEK THIRTEEN (11-12-2010): This is the first week when we compare areas. Sectional champs get outside the neighborhood and we get to see if they've been kidding themselves all year. Morton has a lot on the line. In two years, they are 22-3 with the losses to Lowell. Now we get to answer the question of whether Morton is really a top-10 team or if they've just been blessed with a soft sectional. Everyone here has had a good season. But your reputation and sharp uniforms can't win for you this late in the year. Just ask the Dallas Cowboys.

WEEK (13) THIRTEEN

Class 1A

UNION MILLS (11-12-2010) It's been a good year for South Central. It's nice they won that sectional title. It was fun. But it's done. Don't kid yourself here. Lafayette Catholic is the most lethal team in any bracket. In good weather, SC can't handle the passing attack here. And no one has run the ball on Lafayette Catholic, which is a 17-point computer favorite. Unless the Lafayette bus can't find Union Mills (and it's hard) that's being kind. This is not a knock against SC. It's just the reality. In a meeting four years ago Lafayette Catholic won 68-7.

Lafayette Catholic 42, South Central 0

Hagerstown [12-0] at Churubusco [11-1]

CHURUBUSCO (11-12-2010) I don't have a good line on this game because I don't know anybody Hagerstown has played. They defeated Knightstown twice, but who did Knightstown (8-4) play? Steam rolling Union County (3-7) isn't impressive. Churubusco has been coming on for a couple of years (39-8 in the last four seasons) now. They topped 4A Angola and 3A Culver Academy. For a 1A public school, that's pretty good. Churubusco has allowed 47 points in five home games all year. The regional title comes back to 'Turtle Town.'

BREMEN (11-12-2010) Bremen plays too many 1A schools (3) for me, but they've won seven games in a row including the last two on the road. The Bombers play ball control, which boils the game down to their offensive line and running backs against your defensive front. The Bombers have only played five road games and Bremen is in the middle of nowhere at the north end of Marshall County. With two 1,000-yard rushers, Rensselaer is well suited to play on the road. The winner earns the right to be annihilated by Bishop Luers.

TIPTON (11-12-2010) Unless Luers can't find Tipton County, this won't be a game. In decent weather, Luers is fast and they can get turnovers. All you need to know here is that Tipton has allowed 23 points a game. They can't score 23 on Luers, which is going for their 15th regional title. Luers, a 27-point computer favorite, lost 36-14 to 4A Bishop Dwenger (11-0), but Dwenger may soon be the 4A champion. Luers returned 53 players off the 2009 state champs. If you think Tipton has a chance, go on line and watch Luers highlights. You'll come to your senses.

LEO (11-12-2010) West Lafayette has stumbled through to this point, but this is where it ends. Leo won a showdown with undefeated Eastbrook (11-1) 49-40 last Friday. West Lafayette has lost to 2A Rensselaer and 1A Sheridan and they are three hours from home. An aside, Leo is in Fort Wayne near the Ohio state line. West Lafayette is within 40 miles of the Illinois state line. What does it take to play games Saturday night? After 3 hours on the bus, this isn't an upset.

MERRILLVILLE (11-12-2010) I think it's a surprise that St. Joe is here. The Indians have played a difficult schedule, maybe tougher than Andrean's. And St. Joe had a much tougher sectional, taking out Jimtown 24-22 last week. But it's hard to cross time zones and play on the road in November. Andrean can be very conservative and run the ball and Jimtown DID run on St. Joe. QB Max Matthews was 12 of 23 for 201 yards last week. They have a balanced attack. Both these teams have played very close games all year. This may be the best game of the week.

ELKHART (11-12-2010) This one is hard to figure. Concord would be a heavy favorite except they've lost their star QB (Anthony Yoder) and their right tackle for the season. Linemen are linemen, but unless Concord can go out and buy a new QB like Auburn University did, they'll be shorthanded. DuWhan Alford, a 230-pound fullback, ran for 160 yards last week, but Clay's DeVon Bailey ran for 140 on Concord. Other than some trips to Chicago, Morton has not played this far from home since they played at the old Elkhart high school (now Elkhart Central) on Nov. 12, 1971. The Governors balanced attack can hit deep into the depleted (Yoder was the free safety) Concord secondary and Kayln Aaron will get 100 yards. But I just don't think Morton can handle the size and deception of the Concord attack.

FORT WAYNE (11-12-2010) This game is not hard to figure. Dwenger starts at least three Division I players including defensive end Tony Springman (6-7, 265), who will try to shore up coach Brian Kelly's leaky defense next year at Notre Dame. Other than 5A power Snider, no one has come within 22 points of Dwenger all year and New Haven lost 49-0 to Homestead four weeks ago. This is a mismatch and New Haven knows it.

Bishop Dwenger 42, New Haven 0

Indianapolis Cathedral [8-4] at Pendleton Hts. [9-3]

PENDLETON (11-12-2010) Cathedral has lost to Carmel (9-2) and to three teams from out of state. Pendleton lost to Delta and that's a 'red flag'. For them to beat Roncalli by 30 or more twice says that Cathedral is ready to rumble and the road doesn't bother them. You can't lose to Delta and Mt. Vernon and win the regional.

Cathedral 35, Pendleton Heights 14

East Central [11-1] at Evansville Reitz [12-0]

EVANSVILLE (11-12-2010) Reitz is back after two state titles in the last three years. Did you now that Reitz is 51-2 in four years and has won 27 games in a row? Lowell folks are well aware of that. Reitz has not lost a home game since 2006. Playing Saturday afternoon gives East Central a chance and they have allowed 115 points all season. But EC does not play any 5A schools and, again, this is the final home game for Reitz seniors who have never lost at home.

INDIANAPOLIS (11-2-10) The reason Warren Central will not win state this season is because Lawrence Central bombed them 35-14 in the sectional. Since a 23-point loss to Pike (9-3), LC has won eight in a row. Again, don't look at how many points a team scores and not see how many they allow. Tre Roberson of Lawrence Central is an all-state spread offense QB headed for Indiana who scored four times against Warren Central. Avon, which allows 23 points a game, has not seen Roberson.

CASTLE (11-12-2010) This is embarrassing to both sides. Two 3-6 teams are in the regional even though they failed miserably during the season. In amateur sports you should not be rewarded for failure. No 3-6 team should be in the post-season at any level. Bloomington North lost to Bloomington South (2-8) and they have allowed 20 or more points nine times. Castle has allowed 31 points a game. The shame is that somebody has to win. I pick Castle, which has played a slightly stronger schedule, to advance to get massacred by Lawrence Central.

FORT WAYNE (11-21-10) Snider has lost only to Bishop Dwenger (11-0) and Bishop Luers (11-1) and they have the traditional run-dominated attack. Fishers lost to Hamilton SE 40-7 and beat them 28-0 two months later, so you have to be wary of them. But Snider lost to Dwenger only 46-45 in overtime. Fishers lost to Avon, but they won 17-14 at No. 1 Carmel. I think it's a big year in the Summit Athletic Conference and Snider almost always gets deep into the playoffs. But I wouldn't bet on either side here.

VALPARAISO (11-12-2010) Valparaiso does not have a great offense, but no on has scored more than 22 points on them. Mishawaka has held seven teams to seven points or less, but they completed just three passes last week and won in overtime over Penn (7-5), a game they tied with five seconds to play. Valparaiso is the better team. They're playing at home and QB Paul Andrie was very good last week. The DAC is a better league this year than Mishawaka's Northern Indiana Conference and Valpo's kicker is good for two field goals a game.