Week 14 Picks:  2005 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

November 18, 2005

WEEK-13 ANALYSIS:  Hamilton Southeastern pulled off one big shocker, pulling away from No. 1 Snider, which self-destructed with turnovers.  Speedway also took out No. 1 Tri-West which had defensive problems that its 4-WR offense could not overcome.  

Cold-weather, ground-oriented  teams seemed to come through like Lowell, Griffith, FW South and Sheridan.  The upset of Griffith by Hamilton Heights didn't materialize despite 300 yards passing for HH against the Panthers.  Merrillville over Penn wasn't an upset due to Penn injuries.  Chatard and Heritage Hills moved on to their annual semistate meeting.  Unbeatens Perry Central and Knightstown set up their showdown while Warren Central appears to be an overmatch for anyone left in the bracket.

While week 13 usually has a lot of upsets because teams are leaving their area for the first time, the semistate round is usually very predicable because, for the first time all year, we have somewhat of a true reading on who's strong.

WEEK 13 (2005) PIX recap

WEEK 13: 11 OF 20, 65.0%

WEEK 12: 14 OF 18, 77.7%

WEEK 11: 13 of 16, 81.3%

WEEK 10: 21 of 27, 77.7%

WEEK 9: 7 of 11, 63.6%

WEEK 8: 9 of 12, 75.0%

WEEK 7: 10 of 12, 83.3%

WEEK 6: 9 OF 13, 69.2%

WEEK 5: 10 OF 14, 71.4%

WEEK 4: 9 OF 12, 75.0%

WEEK 3: 7 of 13, 53.8%

WEEK 2: 11 of 15, 73.3%

WEEK 1: 16 of 20, 80%

9-WEEK REGULAR SEASON: 88 of 122, 72.1%

PLAYOFFS: 59 of 81, 72.8%
2005 Season: 147 of 203, 72.4%

2004 Overall: 156 of 216, 72.2%

WEEK 14 (FOURTEEN) PREDICTIONS

Semistate Championships, 11-18-2005

Three games were pushed back to Saturday late in the week including one Class 3A and 4A game.  Again, all Class 3A, 4A and 5A games should be held on Saturday at this point if travel of over 100 miles is involved.  It's unfair and dangerous to have teams and fans flying through the dark on a Friday night trying to get to a faraway place they've never been and the state title game is on Saturday anyway.  Downstate they have no problem with it.  Northwest Indiana is still stubborn and there are all kinds of excuses.

Unfortunately, it will take a multiple car fatal Friday night accident involving kids to produce an IHSAA rule that travel of over two hours for Friday night regional and semistate football be prohibited.  If you were in the caravans of Lake County people scrambling, trying to find Concord, Penn or Jimtown in the dark last week in good weather, you'll know what I'm talking about.

Two semistate games are rated even (less than a one point difference) on the Sagarin computer.  The biggest game in the state is the seemingly annual meeting of Bishop Chatard and Heritage Hills in 3A.  This is the 5th consecutive year these two have met in the semistate, an all-time record.  There's not a lot of drama involving No. 1s Griffith and Warren Central until next week.  There are still three teams that have never reached the state finals including two going head to head, Fort Wayne South and Lowell.

Class 1A - Sheridan (11-2) 30, Adams Central (12-1) 21

MONROE  - Freshman QB Nick Zachary (188 carries,1,654 yards), who has scored 22 TDS and grabbed eight interceptions, gained 103 yards on 13 carries and fullback Taylor Scott added 213 yards on 28 carries in Sheridan's 34-14 victory over Lafayette Catholic. Adams Central won 21-14 last week largely because West Central quarterback Justin Nelson broke his leg in the second quarter of Adams Central's 21-14 regional victory.  Sheridan has nine regional titles and they can squeeze in here against an Adams Central team that obviously, has been a little lucky.

Class 1A - Knightstown (13-0) 28, Perry Central (13-0) 21

KNIGHTSTOWN - No one has scored more than 16 points on EITHER team this year and both teams have scored over 500 points in 13 games.  Statistically, this is the game of the night even though nobody knows where these schools (Perry Central is in Leopold, Indiana) are located.  This game is almost dead even (less than a point difference) on the Sagarin computer.  Knightstown's Matt Cox (5-10, 180) has carried 306 times for 1,949 yards but Perry Central's Dwight Brown (5-9, 195) has carried 315 times for 2,354 yards.  Perry Central has played a slightly tougher schedule but Knightstown is at home.  The southern Indiana Saturday weather will allow Knightstown's Eric Freeman, who has thrown for 30 TDs, to make the difference.

Class 2A - Jimtown (12-1) 14, Lewis Cass (13-0) 0

WALTON - Jimtown has allowed 81 points and 115 first downs and 1,872 yards in 13 games. No one state-wide has a defensive record that good.  Both teams are undefeated against 2A schools and Jimtown is 2-0 against 3As.  Cass is 5-0 against 3A schools but on the road, ground-oriented Jimtown just has too much speed on a night when the pass won't be available.

Class 2A - North Posey (11-2) 20, Speedway (11-2) 12

NORTH POSEY - Speedway upset two-time 2A state champ Tri-West, but that may have been their season goal.  North Posey junior QB Josh Wagner (6-3, 195) has thrown for 1,916 yards and 25 TDs.  Posey also has 220-pound Matt Scheller who had carried 100 times for 677 yards and 15 TDs.  Posey is at home, has played a tougher schedule and has scored 40 points or more seven times.

Class 3A - Bishop Chatard (11-2) 20, Heritage Hills (12-1) 17

INDIANAPOLIS - Pushed back to Saturday night, this will draw an overflow crowd in Indianapolis.  Heritage handed 4A Jasper their only loss and might be the only team in the state not intimidated by Chatard and their seven state titles.  But Chatard handed Roncalli one of their two losses and it was a fluke HH (a key injury during the game) won last year.  The Chatard offense has not been good, but the defense has allowed only 37 points in four playoff games.  Heritage Hills does not have a 1,000-yard rusher or passer but that was the case last year as well when they were 14-1 and almost beat Andrean.  Bishop Chatard junior Joe Holland (6-2, 195) has gained 1,963 yards on 272 carries.  Chatard, while big up front (about 240 pounds on average) is very one-dimensional.  They threw just one pass in last week's 14-0 win over No. 8 New Palestine.  Heritage Hills has won 12 in a row, but when comes to prognostication... always go with the Indianapolis private schools.

Class 3A - Griffith (13-0) 56, Northwood (7-6) 6

NAPPANEE - Northwood has a freshman QB (country boy Skyler Titus) and has four wins by seven points or less.  Griffith averages 50 points and 500 yards a game.  Northwood has done a superhuman job just to be here and they have played a tougher schedule than the Panthers.  But the Griffith option is something that Northwood has not had to deal with.  They have to invent a defense this week (not a total impossibility) to stop Griffith because the one they've used for 13 weeks won't get it done.  All of Northwood's losses are to 4As and 5As except for a 13-9 loss to 2A No. 2 Jimtown (12-1).  Northwood's best player is kicker Ryan Burkhart (9 field goals), who is good from 50 yards on in.  Burkhart hit a 53-yarder against Jimtown in August, but his range might be limited on a 35-degree night.  Don't get me wrong here.  Northwood has one of the greatest traditions in Indiana football with 15 sectional titles.  They are famed for their 'Black Crunch' defense and power running football.  But that's just not the way to beat Griffith. And Bishop Luers running back Justin Gasnarez gained 199 yards on 30 carries last week on Northwood.  You need passing, great team speed or overpowering strength and Northwood doesn't appear to have a lot of all three.  This isn't just a 'lock', it's the ultimate 'Master Lock.'  The ONLY chance Northwood has is if Griffith's team bus driver can't find Nappanee.

Class 4A - Roncalli  (11-2) 16, Jasper (12-1) 14

JASPER - Upset warning here.  Jasper senior Luke Schmidt, a 235-pound tailback, has 279 carries for 2,119 yards), could dominate if the weather is bad Saturday night.  This is his final game on his home field.  But Jasper cannot throw the ball to save their lives and Roncalli, which has won a state record 22 playoff games in a row, is a physical team that will not be run down for very long.  Roncalli running back Chris Merkel (5-9, 191) has carried 281 times for 1,715 yards and QB Paul Corsaro (79 of 140, 1,261 yards) has proven he can throw the ball so the Rebels have a balanced attack and the defense had not allowed more than 24 points in any game.  The losses are by seven points each to Indy private schools Bishop Chatard and Cathedral.  Jasper is at home and the three-time defending state champs are on the road and in serious trouble, but Roncalli will pull it out in the fourth quarter.

Class 4A - Lowell (9-4) 16, (FW) South (11-2) 10

LOWELL - These are mirror image teams.  Both team's have run for about 3,500 yards and passed for less than 1,000.  Deontrai Campbell (1,200 yards rushing) has the speed to take on a quick Lowell defense.  South has lived on defense and they are working all week to stop Lowell's 2,000-yard rusher Scott Gray.  This one clearly could go either way.  South is a bigger school and has played in a tougher league. But South has to drive 2 1/2 hours and play on a school day in one of the toughest home field situations in NW Indiana.  South is a touch faster, but a wet field (almost a certainty) will even that up.  Lowell might be a little more physical and, at home, they can get a key turnover and prevail.

Class 5A - Warren Central (12-1) 41, Avon (12-1) 7

INDIANAPOLIS - Warren Central has had their 'good' loss and they are rated 11 points better than anyone else in the state.  Avon has had a good year, but here's what they're up against:  Warren Central's second TD Friday will push them over the 700-point mark in 14 games. There are teams that don't score 700 points in three seasons.  5-foot-10, 185-pound senior quarterback Dexter Taylor (123 carries, 1,838 yards, 23 TDs) and 6-foot-2, 205-pound junior Darren Evans (196 carries, 1,864 yards, 34 TDs) may become the only duo in the state to pass 2,000 yards rushing.  The numbers on Taylor are supposedly accurate although it is hard to believe that anyone can average 15 yards a carry over 100 carries.  No one has held WC under 350 yards rushing in any game, possibly due to a line that averages 260 pounds a man.  Avon, which has scored 40 or more for seven weeks in a row, has had a good year, but it doesn't matter.  Avon gave up 35 points last week to Reitz and they have allowed more than 20 points in eight different games.  That means the Avon is about to be forcibly removed from the state playoffs.

Class 5A - Merrillville (11-2) 13, Hamilton Southeastern (10-3) 6

MERRILLVILLE - Southeastern, which is one of the five largest schools in the state, has played one of the toughest schedules in the state and they've only allowed 11 points a game.  Take away the 38-35 OT loss to LaPorte and the 35-23 win over Chesterton (two pass happy teams) and no one has scored more than 14 points on Merrillville.  Southeastern can't throw the ball like LaPorte and Chesterton but SE shut down the rushing attack of Snider, holding them to 180 yards.  SE's Chris Summers (13 FGs) hit four field goals last week and he has seven FGs in four playoff games.  That is a factor although the weather (mid-30s) may limit field goals.  A wet field and top defenses will create a stone-age throwback, but I expect the 2-1/2 hour drive on Friday night to tip the scales to the Pirates.

Copyright © 2005 USA-365.com and Meyer Multimedia Services, a division of Meyer Broadcasting Corp.  All rights reserved.
Revised: November 18, 2005 .