'Championship Night 2' - WEEK 13 (Thirteen) Recap - 11-9-2007:  I should have known better than to go against Bishop Chatard.  Chatard?  An eight-time state champion?  What was I thinking???  That was an embarrassing pick and when you break the rules you should be embarrassed.  What rule?  Never go against the Indianapolis private schools late in the football playoffs.  The result: Pike over Hamilton Southeastern is something I would not pick if they played again tomorrow, but the Pike Red Devils, a team that had never won a sectional before this year, is on one of those inexplicable state tourney runs.  Perhaps they are like the Lowell Red Devils were two years ago in Class 4A.  Might be time to stop picking against them.

The best pick of last week? No perfect scores, but the Bishop Dwenger and Bishop Luers picks were within one TD of being perfect and the St. Joseph's win over Andrean was also in the neighborhood.  I have absolutely no explanation for the Reitz-Columbus East game, and, be honest. You don't either.  61-60?

Heading into the final two weeks of the playoffs, there are only 15 games left to pick and (while reports of more touchdowns are still coming in on that Reitz game) you pretty much have all the information on these 10 teams that you're going to have.  There are no more excuses at the selection desk.  I should and I will correctly pick 80% of the semistate games and ALL of the state final games.  Why not?  There's 3 months of a track record to go on.  You can fail to run the option, but failure is not an option.

2007 (Week 1)  8 of 13   =  66.7%
2007 (Week 2)  8 of 11   =  72.7%
2007 (Week 3)  8 of 12   =  66.7%
2007 (Week 4)  10 of 11   =  90.9%
2007 (Week 5)  6 of 10  =  60.0%
2007 (Week 6)  6 of 10  =  60.0%
2007 (Week 7) 10 of 10  =  100.0%
2007 (Week 8)  6 of 10  =  60.0%
2007 (Week 9)  9 of 10  =  90.0%

Playoffs
2007 (week 10) 23 of 28   =  82.1%
2007 (week 11)  12 of 16  =  75.0%
2007 (week 12)  12 of 16  =  75.0%
2007 (week 13)  14 of 16   =  87.5%

2007 (regular season) 71 of 97 = 73.2%
     2007 (playoffs) 61 of 76 = 80.2%
  2007 (overall)132 of 173 = 76.3%

2006 (final) OVERALL :  166 of 217 = 76.4% 
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

Northwest Indiana
WEEK 14 (FOURTEEN) PICKS, 11-16-2007

MERRILLVILLE (11-16-2007) -  The trick here is to decide when to go against the home team because all home teams are semi-favorites at this point.  I think the home field is worth 7-10 points in the semistate, because the visitors not only have to drive two hours or more, they are often playing on a field they have never seen in a town they have never visited.  Plus the home team is, by design, on a four-game winning streak. and again, because of the format, playing their final home game of the season, almost certainly in front of a sellout crowd.  That's a lot to go against.

For the life of me, I do not understand why semistate games in Class 3A, 4A and 5A are not played on Saturday.  The title games in those classes are played the following Saturday, so you are not losing a practice day.  Playing Saturday takes away the travel disadvantage because the traveling team has all day to get to the destination.  I think teams like Merrillville and Churubusco especially are at huge disadvantages this week (11-16-2007) trying to travel long distances after school and playing Friday night on the road.  Teams have won on the road.  Certainly Lowell won at Concord and Triton won at South Newton, but I believe those are exceptions.

You should give yourselves the best chance and, by the way, give your fans a fighting chance to get there and back you.  Many fans simply do not have the option of following you 100 miles for a Friday night game.  Obviously the biggest game of the 10 to be played is the Saturday showdown of the two reigning 3A superpowers, No. 1 Heritage Hills (13-0) and No. 2 Bishop Chatard (10-3).  These teams have met six times in the last 10 years, all of them at the semistate level.  This match is made closer by the fact that it will be played Saturday, allowing Heritage Hills the free day to travel.

There are three defending state champs, Sheridan, Chatard and Roncalli remaining in the 2007 field and there are a stunning eight private schools, Bishop Chatard, Bishop Luers, Bishop Dwenger, Roncalli, Concordia Lutheran, Cardinal Ritter, St. Joseph's and newcomer Heritage Christian, still left among the 20 in the state tourney.  And those eight are in the bottom four classes because there are no 5A private schools.  With two weeks to go, there is a chance that the 2A, 3A and 4A championship games will feature ALL private schools.  When the Indiana state tournament expands to a 6A, I would suggest that all private schools move up one class.  It's fair and, with the inevitable expansion to 6A (probably in 2009), this is the obvious time.

Okay, we're looking at perhaps the coldest night of the year with temperatures in the 30s in the north.  Only the strong survive.  But once they survive, they go indoors where it's warm.

Class 1A - Rockville (13-0) at Cardinal Ritter (9-4)

INDIANAPOLIS - The all-mighty Rocks carry the state's No. 2 ranking to Indianapolis to take on a Ritter team that has played a tougher schedule.  Rockville did end the undefeated season of Linton-Stockton last week, but I don't think the Rocks have played any other good teams.  Ritter runs a spread offense (388 yards last week) but this is largely a new team from the one that went 13-2 and lost the state final game in overtime to Sheridan last season.  Rockville won its first sectional title in 10 years and they have a balanced attack.  This won't be a low-scoring game but you have a team that went to the state finals (Ritter) in 2006 against a team that has no one who has ever played this late in the year.  And remember who rules:  Indianapolis private schools.

Ritter 30, Rockville 20

Class 1A - Churubusco (11-2) at Sheridan (13-0)

SHERIDAN - Sheridan carries a 34-game winning streak and they've allowed 69 points all season.  Playoff winning streak.  Churubusco averages 35 points a game, but the Blackhawks don't let you have the ball much.  Sheridan's Nick Zachary is trying to become the only player in state history to lead his team to four state titles.  Zachary (6-2, 200) carried 27 times for 194 yards last week in a 36-0 win over Tri-County.  Zachary, who has quarterbacked his team to two consecutive state titles, has run 203 times for 1,771 yards and 34 TDs.  With linemen like Cory Paddock (6-3, 300), Dayne Jessup (6-5, 260) and Arick Clements (6-1, 300), what is Churubusco going do here besides lose and go home?

Sheridan 35, Churubusco 7

Class 2A - Bishop Luers (9-4) at Lewis Cass (12-1)

WALTON - Cass is a cold-weather monster running the football out of the old double wing formation.  The Kings buried an outclassed Wheeler team 41-0 last week with 373 yards rushing.  Luers had the speed to blast Northwestern 42-14 last week, but they may not have the power to get the ball away from the Kings' senior QB Rory Mannering who gained 123 yards on 11 carries and linemen Kody Robinson (6-4, 266) and Kit O'Brien (6-6, 290).  Luers has beaten Jimtown (11-1) and lost to Snider (11-2) and Dwenger (13-0) but Cass is a different style of team.

Lewis Cass 28, Bishop Luers 21

Class 2A - Heritage Christian (12-1) at Southridge (10-3)

INDIANAPOLIS - Heritage Christian is the coming school in Indianapolis. Two-time state girls basketball champions.  Up-and-coming in baseball.  And this is the furthest they have gone in football.  This is only a six-year-old program and the Eagles are sectional and regional champs for the first time.  Southridge has won two overtime games and is lucky to be here, but they do have the running attack that can slow the Eagles on a cold night.  HC is another spread attack team with senior QB Garrett Meador (18 of 37 last week with 3 interceptions) that will thrive if they get indoors at the RCA Dome next week, but may struggle in 30-degree weather.  Still.  The rules?  Indianapolis private schools.

Heritage Christian 26, Southridge 21

Class 3A - (FW) Concordia (10-3) at (SB) St. Joseph's (11-2)

SOUTH BEND - I don't know what Concordia's going to do here that somebody else hasn't done.  They are facing dominating running back Jordan Taylor (6-0, 200), who has run for 500 yards in the last two weeks against good teams (Northwood and Andrean).  Taylor has 2,200 yards and 25 TDs this season and no one has really stopped him.  Both Northwood and Andrean threw the ball well on S. Joe's and that's the hope here for the Cadets, who were only 5-4 in Fort Wayne's Summit Athletic Conference (SAC).  But they've romped past four playoff foes 137-48.  Concordia's played good teams but they haven't beaten many of them.  St. Joe has won eight in a row and they've beaten four winning teams in the post-season. St. Joe is at home.  They run the ball very well.  Cold November nights were made for teams like this.  Try and find a road team that's going to win Friday.

St. Joseph's 35, Concordia 21

Class 3A - Heritage Hills (13-0) at Bishop Chatard (10-3)

INDIANAPOLIS - In 2001, 2002 and 2003, Heritage Hills went undefeated all season before losing to Chatard in the semistate.  Chatard crushed a good Danville team (11-2) by 45 points last week as sophomore halfback Ari Pappas ran for over 200 yards.  HH has roared through the south again, allowing less than 10 points a game.  The Patriots were the 200 state champ and the 2004 sate runner-up.  They are 102-7 in this decade, but now this is the moment of truth.  Four of those losses were semistate games against Chatard.  Heritage Hills relies on the defenses and counter-attacks and, in many respects, so does Chatard, which is led by stars linebackers John Dury (6-2, 215) and Mike Dun (6-1, 200).  Here's an 'old school' defensive game involving two old long-distance friends.  Neither team will go quietly, but I think the Trojans woke up offensively last week and Heritage Hills was eliminated in the sectional quarterfinals last year so most their boys have not been to this point.  Chatard has a 10-game playoff winning streak.  Plus: Home team.  Tougher schedule (combined record of the team Chatard has played is 71-48).  More playoff experience.  Indianapolis private school.  How many times do I has to say that?

Bishop Chatard 23, Heritage Hills 12

Class 4A - Evansville Reitz (13-0) at (Indianapolis) Cathedral (11-2)

INDIANAPOLIS - In the computer rankings, Cathedral is a nine-point favorite over an undefeated team.  That gives you an idea of how tough these Fighting Irish are.  Reitz QB Paul McIntosh (6-2, 200) has rushed and passed for 1,000 yards for two seasons in a row.  Last week, he ran 29 times for 232 yards and completed 18-of-27 for 219 yards.  He doesn't do it alone.  The offensive line averages 240 pounds a man.  But you can forget those numbers against Cathedral, which is undefeated against 4A schools and has four shutouts.  As good as McIntosh is, Cathedral has the answer for him in Division I defensive end Robert Maci (Purdue) and junior defensive end Kakpindi Jamiru who has 14 sacks (he had 21 last year).  On the down side, Reitz gave up 450 yards passing last week and still won.  They led 40-38 at the half.  Irish QB Andrew Pimentel (15 of 23, 249 last week) might like what he sees in the Reitz defense.  All the 'factors' go to Cathedral Friday night.  Home field.  Long travel for Reitz.  Indianapolis private school.  But there's one more.  I saw Cathedral just crush undefeated Concord last year when Concord had an almost 'unstoppable' offense that had scored 30 or more on 14 foes.  I see that happening again here.  Cathedral, a six-time state champ, expects to win.

Cathedral 27, Reitz 14

Class 4A - Bishop Dwenger (13-0) at LOWELL (12-1)

LOWELL - This is the best Friday night game.  Lowell has rallied in all four playoffs games and has rallied to win four times.  The Devils will be behind again on this night.  Division I wide receiver John Goodman (Notre Dame) plays QB for the undefeated top-ranked Saints, the undisputed champions of Fort Wayne's Summit Athletic Conference.  Halfback Jamarkis Willis (5-9, 175) has 26 TDs from the Dwenger spread attack.  But Lowell is built for cold weather November games with sophomore 1,500-yard halfback Brandon Grubbe and 800-yard rusher Stefan Peck, a three-year vet at fullback.  Dwenger's spread attack plays into Lowell defensive strength, their outside speed, led by safety Lukas Palmer, corner TJ Lukasik and defensive end Jeff Barker (6-4, 205).  The magic number is 21.  No one has scored more than 21 points on Lowell in regulation time all season.  No one has held Dwenger to less than 21 in 13 games.  Lowell won't either.  But this is the game Lowell, the 2005 state champ, has been hoping to play all season.  The Devils can wear down the Saints' aggressive defense, which is on the field a lot.  For three years now, Lowell has won close playoff games like this one should be.  Here is the upset of the week.

LOWELL 31, Bishop Dwenger 24

Class 5A - Columbus North (12-1) at (Indianapolis) Pike (13-0)

INDIANAPOLIS - North simply dominated Jeffersonville last week behind big QB Mike Hladik (6-4, 230) while Pike has won three playoff games by 10 points or less.  North is ranked No. 1 in the computer rankings which makes you question the rankings.  Why?  Pike beat Columbus North 33-14 on Sept. 21.  North averages 37 points a game and only Pike has scored more than 23 against them.  The Red Devils struggled on offense (16.6 ppg.) in the last three games, but they have a big offensive line led by Cameron Lowery (6-6, 250) and a physical defense based on tackle Rod Hardy (6-2, 295) and top tackler and linebacker Darrell Ricker (5-9, 230).  No one has moved the ball consistently on Pike all year and they are the only team to 'stop' Hladik, who was 14-of-27 in the first meeting for 143 yards.  Can he adjust on the road 100 miles from home?  North got beat 56-0 in the semistate by Warren Central last year and I'm sure that night lives in infamy on the north side of Columbus.  But now, this is probably the biggest football game in the history of Pike high school.  In the computer rankings, North is an eight-point 'computer' favorite but I think that's an on-paper assessment.  Pike is in the semistate for the first time in school history and they will be on their home field and, while rematches are almost always closer than the first game, I just can't see North being three TDs better than they were two months ago against a team that has had everything go its way all season.

Pike 23,  Columbus North 14

Class 5A - MERRILLVILLE (12-1) at Carmel (11-2)

CARMEL - The Pirates came from 13 points behind to take out undefeated Penn 21-20 last week, but this is a tough assignment in a Friday night road game two hours away against a dominant team.  Carmel reached the state title game in 2006 and they are 32 minutes away from going back with tailback Aaron King (6-0, 210), who has rushed for 1,385 yards and 17 TDs, along with junior fullback Kurt Breyer (6-2, 210) and all-state WR Jordan Brewer (6-6, 220) who has 43 catches for 868 yards and 14 TDs, surrounding junior QB Morgan Newton (6-4, 210), who is 105-of-175, 1,664 yards.  Linebacker Conner O'Banion (6-1, 210) has 101 tackles.  The Greyhounds defense held Snider (11-2), which averaged 40 points a game to next to nothing in a 20-3 regional win last week.

Merrillville's defense should be able to slow Carmel with junior linebacker Dionte Day, who has 150 tackles, tackle Paul Rosa (6-4, 295) and corner DeMarrio Richardson (5-10, 180) who has nine interceptions.  Allstate kicker Ryan Stokes (11 FGs) is good for a couple of '3's every week.

The key to every Merrillville game is junior QB Dolapo Macarthy (6-6, 195), who is just under 1,000 yards rushing and passing.  1,000-yard halfback Roosevelt Williams is questionable with an ankle injury, but twin brother Ronneal Williams (5-11, 185) is capable.  Both teams are very good defensively, but the Pirates have to be mistake-free on offense as well and that's going to be a problem against a defense like this.

Carmel 17, MERRILLVILLE 12

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Revised: November 14, 2007 .