Week 14 Picks:  2008 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

November 20, 2008

 

 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK 13, 2008 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 4; Right - 16 = 80.0%
The Pick	The Result
Class 1A
Ritter 35, Lapel 14	Ritter 47-9
Rockville 27, Linton-Stockton 14	WRONG... Linton-Stockton 28-14
Southern Wells 28, Triton 7	Southern Wells 32-0
Sheridan 28, Pioneer 0	Sheridan 21-19
Class 2A
Heritage Christian 28, Speedway 21	Heritage Christian 27-21
Southridge 35, Brownstown 13	WRONG... Brownstown 26-6
Jimtown 42, Madison Grant 6	Jimtown 21-0
Lewis Cass 21, Rensselaer 14	Lewis Cass 30-14
Class 3A
Bishop Chatard  24, North Montgomery 14	Bishop Chatard 40-22
Evansville Memorial 28, Heritage Hills 24	Evansville Memorial 6-3
Bellmont 27, Yorktown 20	Bellmont 25-21
Northwood 28, ANDREAN 16	Northwood 35-28
Class 4A
Cathedral 35, Zionsville 14	Cathedral 27-11
Columbus East 35, Jasper 31	Columbus East 24-7
LOWELL 27, Griffith 14	LOWELL 19-13
Bishop Dwenger 40, Delta 21	Bishop Dwenger 49-20
Class 5A
Carmel 35, Snider 12	Carmel 24-21
Warren Central 35, Ben Davis 24	WRONG... Ben Davis 45-23
Center Grove 35, Castle 7	Center Grove 49-7
MERRILLVILE 20, Penn  14	WRONG... Penn 19-0

WEEK-THIRTEEN (13) RECAP from Friday, November 14, 2008:  Penn came ready to play.  That's one of those one-year-later rematches that usually go to the team that lost the previous year.  That's the same situation with Linton Stockton beating Rockville.  Ben Davis and Warren Central could have gone either way.  There's got to be something that's not obvious from a distance on that Brownstown-Southridge game.  Southridge scored six points after they'd scored 19 or more in every game all year against a tougher schedule.  All the other games went the way they were supposed to go.  Best pick: Heritage Christian over Speedway by almost exactly the correct score.

'Mr. Picker's Recent Picking Record

2008 (Week 13)  16 of 20   = 80.0%
2008 (Week 12)  12 of 16   = 75.0%
2008 (Week 11)  14 of 16   = 87.5%
2008 (Week 10)  24 of 28   = 85.7%
2008 (Week 9)  9 of 11   = 81.8%
2008 (Week 8)  11 of 12   = 91.8%
2008 (Week 7)  5 of 10   = 50.0%
2008 (Week 6)  9 of 11   = 81.9%
2008 (Week 5)  5 of 10   = 50.0%
2008 (Week 4)  7 of 10   = 70.0%
2008 (Week 3)  7 of 12   = 58.3%
2008 (Week 2)  6 of 10   = 60.0%
2008 (Week 1)  9 of 12   =  75.0%
2008 Regular Season:  68 of 98 = 69.3%
2008 Playoff Season:  66 of 80 = 82.5%
2008 Year to Date:  134 of 178 = 75.2%
2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

MERRILLVILLE (11-21-2008) - There is intrigue about teams like Lowell and Bishop Dwenger, which are from completely opposite parts of the state. But, while semistate games are usually close, the team that's supposed to win often does.  That's not the case in the neutral site state finals where the conditions drastically change.  Weather will be a major problem.  Fields may be frozen for night games and temperatures will be in the upper 20s by the second half of games in northern and Central Indiana.  Spread offense teams will be limited, while power running teams will adjust.  By this time, you should know who's going to win.  Everyone has established 13 weeks of a track record.  Nobody's going to reinvent themselves at this point.  But, look back at last week and see how many road teams won.  More road teams (14) won than home teams (6) and that gores against the long-standing trend at the semistate level where the visitors have to travel the furthest.

SHERIDAN (11-21-2008) I've heard a lot of good things about Southern Wells.  Things I'm going to totally ignore right now. Sheridan has faced three tough foes in succession and come out on top.  They have two 300-pound offensive linemen in front of QB Nick Zachary, who has led the team to three consecutive state titles. This is the final home game for Zachary's class.  The Blackhawks have played a tougher schedule and they are used to this.  Wells, which completed just one pass last week, hasn't gotten out of the sectional since 2001, while Sheridan is a nine-time state champion running the ball on every play in 28-degree weather.  Seriously, who's your money on here?

Sheridan 28, Southern Wells 7


Indianapolis Ritter [13-0] at Linton-Stockton [13-0]

LINTON (11-21-2008) I think Linton-Stockton waited a year for a rematch with Rockville, which they won 28-14 in last week's regional.  But they can't go there.  Ritter averaged 40 points a game during the regular season and 41 per game in the playoffs so far.  They are the only team to beat Heritage Christian, which will probably win the 2A state title.  I'm very surprised the Linton-Stockton Miners are here, but they have never gone beyond this point in the history of the program.  Ritter lost one game short of the state finals in 2007, and even though their offense may be handcuffed in the freezing temperatures, they will not be denied here.

Ritter 21, Linton-Stockton 14


Class 2A

Jimtown [11-2] at Lewis Cass [12-1]

WALTON (11-21-2008) The speed of the Jimmies against the size of Cass.  The Cass Kings ran for 291 yards on 41 carries against Rensselaer last week in a 30-14 road win.  Jimtown ran for 244 yards last week with halfback Nick Magyar (5-10, 185) carrying 30 times for 171 yards.  I still see Jimtown as a 2A version of Lowell with a run-dominated attack and speedy defense.  But on the road against a bigger team physically, the Jimmies need a hard, dry field to come out on top.  But Cass is 66-9 in the last six years and they were 13-0 in 2005 before they lost at home 28-13... to Jimtown.  Nobody falls short forever.

Lewis Cass 21, Jimtown 14


Brownstown Central [11-1] at Heritage Christian [12-1]

INDIANAPOLIS (11-21-2008) This would be a mismatch in warm weather as HC can be dominant with a 40-point-per-game offense.  HC lost the state title game last year and they have the next year's semistate on their home field.  That's a blueprint for victory except for one thing.  On what might be a sub-freezing night, HC is a shotgun, spread offense passing team.  That's not what you want.  But HC is significantly the better team and they can't let cold weather stop them.

Heritage Christian 31, Brownstown 20


Class 3A

NorthWood [11-2] at Bellmont [12-1]

BELLMONT (11-21-2008) This is Bellmont's first year in 3A and their first trip past the sectional level.  Northwood is paced by four-year starting QB Skyler Titus, who rushed for 110 yards in the 35-28 home win over Andrean last week.  Northwood has now been to the semistate 10 times, while Bellmont is all new here.  You tend to go with the most experienced team and the road game should not matter to Northwood.  The Panthers are the better team, but they can't give up 400 yards like they did last week against Andrean.

Northwood 35, Bellmont 28


Bishop Chatard [11-1] at Evansville Memorial [11-2]

EVANSVILLE (11-21-2008) There have been a lot of road teams winning in the post-season.  All four Class 5A semifinalists won on the road last week as did all four 2A semifinalists. That seems to be the theme of this year's playoffs.  Chatard halfback Aristotle (Ari) Pappas carried 41 times for 229 yards and five TDs last week on the road at North Montgomery.  Understand about Chatard and Cathedral.  They do not have home fields.  Every game is a road game in the respect that they have to get on the bus.  Memorial's spread offense was held to six points in the rain last week.  Chatard is very powerful up front.  The Trojans' only loss is to Cathedral.  You'll go broke picking the road teams and Memorial has never been to the state finals.  But Northwood and Bishop Chatard have so much experience.  These two played for the 2005 state title and I think they'll play for the 2008 crown as well.

Bishop Chatard 27, Evansville Memorial 14


Class 4A

Indianapolis Cathedral [10-2] at Columbus East [12-0]

COLUMBUS (11-21-8) A monster matchup between the undefeated state's top-ranked team and the Godfather of the Indianapolis Catholic schools.  East is 58-6 in the last five years without winning the state title and they still can't get over a 61-60 loss to eventual state champ Evansville Reitz last November.  Cathedral has won four of the last 12 (1996, 1998, 1999, 2006) Class 4A state titles and they lost 35-34 to Reitz on the last play of the game last year.  East is led by senior rookie QB Dusty Keil (6-3, 220) whose brother Drew threw for 33 touchdowns in 2007 and pass catcher Duwyce Wilson (6-3, 195).  Dusty Keil is more of a run-pass threat.  But East is not as big as Cathedral, which runs behind offensive tackles Aaron Green (6-3, 270) and Kyle Koehne (6-6, 290).  Cathedral lets you know what's coming.  Junior halfback Nick Najem (5-1, 180) gets the ball behind fullback Ross Walthall (6-4, 240.  Cathedral has two losses, but don't let that fool you.  The Irish lost 28-21 to 5A state champ Carmel and they defeated 3A state champ Bishop Chatard.  Columbus East is a team built to play indoors, but unless they get the lead early, they aren't going to get to the Lucas Oil Arena.  You want a power running team for cold November nights and that's Cathedral.

Cathedral 28, Columbus East 21


LOWELL [13-0] at Bishop Dwenger [13-0]

FORT WAYNE (11-22-2008) A rematch from late November of 2007 when Lowell won 10-7 at Lowell.  This game will be pushed back to Saturday so the Cathedral-Columbus East winner might be in the stands watching, especially if it is Cathedral.  Dwenger, with all-state receiver Tyler Eifert (6-5, 220) and 1000-yard halfback Robbie Kimes, chewed up the defense of undefeated Delta last week in a 49-20 win.  The Saints didn't punt until the fourth quarter.  Dwenger is a 15-time regional champ and the offensive line averages 240 pounds per man.  Lowell has 1,600-yard halfback Brandon Grubbe and QB Kurt Monix led them to the state finals last week.  Defensive end Nate Cleveland (6-4, 200) had 10 solo tackles last week against arch-rival Griffith and the Devils have not lost a true road game in two years.  Lowell has barely survived twice in the post-season, but this is not quite the same Dwenger team that was loaded with D-1 stars last year.  I don't think Dwenger has been challenged in the post-season.  With the extra day to get ready I'm going to stick with this year's trend of road teams winning.

LOWELL 14, Bishop Dwenger 10


Class 5A

Penn [10-3] at Carmel [12-1]

CARMEL (11-21-2008) I've never considered any Penn game a mismatch, but this one is not close.  Carmel is the defending state champ and they are a powerful offensive team.  I don't think Penn can hurt them and the defense will wear down.  The Greyhounds were pushed hard on the road at Snider last week in a 24-21 decision, but I thought Merrillville gave Penn their 19-0 regional game with turnovers.  Carmel, the defending state champion, is bigger, faster and stronger with All-American Morgan Newton (6-4, 220) at QB.  Penn has to drive two hours.  It's a year for road teams but not here.  If there is a lock this week, this is it.

Carmel 28, Penn 6


Ben Davis [10-3] at Center Grove [12-1]

GREENWOOD (11-21-2008) I'm surprised Ben Davis got past Warren Central, but Center Grove is said to have seven Division 1 players and they've scored 32 or more points in every game this season.  These are two teams from Indy's Metro Conference (which is suspiciously spread out into four 5A sectionals) and Center Grove won the first game 44-22.  Center Grove has 16 starters back off last year's team, a power running game, and the season-long expectation that they will face Carmel in the state title game.  That is how it will be.

Center Grove 42, Ben Davis 21

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Revised: November 20, 2008 .