Week 14 NW Indiana HS Football Picks

'Mr. Picker' WEEK-13, 2011 Football Picks in Review: Nov. 11-12, 2011 Wrong - 2; Right - 8 = 80.0%
The Pick	The Result
(1A) Lafayette Cath. 42, S. Newton 14	Lafayette Cath. 54-0
Sheridan 35, Adams Central 14	Sheridan 56-0
(2A) Bremen 28, Wheeler 14	Bremen 35-21
Bishop Luers 40, Tipton 14	Bishop Luers 44-23
(3A) Jimtown 21, St. Joe's 20	(wrong) St. Joe's 21-0.
West Lafayette 35, Bellmont 7	West Lafayette 14-7
(4A) Morton 37, SBW 34.	(wrong) SBW 33-20
Leo 28, Northwood 7	Leo 24-12
(5A) Snider 28, HSE 20	Snider 38-21
Penn 23, CROWN POINT 13	Penn 20-3

WEEK THIRTEEN (13) ANALYSIS: The biggest surprise was how hard St. Joseph's ran over Jimtown. 21-0 was unexpected. I thought Morton had a chance against SBW and, had they gotten off to a better start, they would have. The other games were predictable. Even Snider over Hamilton Southeastern was predictable when HSE lost their QB to injury the week before.

BEST PICK: The best pick was Bremen over Wheeler. The score was not exact, but the margin of victory was. On a week where Valparaiso University won, but the Indianapolis Colts still did not, most of the games went the way they should have.

2011 Regular Season, 9-weeks: 69 of 99 = 69.7%
2011 Playoffs (4 weeks): 52 of 70 = 74.2%
2011 OVERALL, 13-weeks: 121 of 169 = 71.5%

Mr. Picker (Through the Years)
2010 (final) OVERALL: 135 of 184 = 73.3%
2009 (final) OVERALL: 154 of 212 = 72.6%
2008 (final) OVERALL: 145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL: 143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL: 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%

WEEK (14) FOURTEEN: All Northwest Indiana teams have been eliminated, but we knew this would happen when 2A No. 2 Andrean went down early. This is the week the 59ers were supposed to have played Bishop Luers. NWI didn't have a threat in 1A and 3A and any 5A would have needed an upset last week at the regional. Morton had a window to get to the state finals this season with Lowell, Mishawaka and Bishop Dwenger out before the regional. It's unlikely that Mishawaka (7-5) will have that type of season again soon and Lowell will be back. Semistate is where, if you've been paying attention, you should know the outcome. Everybody has 13 weeks in the books now and if you can't predict these games, you can't predict anything. This is the final week where the elements matter, but decent late November weather is expected. There are some major mismatches this week. I should go 9-1 or 10-0. But then I thought the NBA Players were too smart to not sign a 50-50 labor agreement. So I've been wrong recently.

CLASS 1A
Sheridan [10-3] at Lafayette Catholic [13-0]:

LAFAYETTE (11-18-2011) Sheridan has won nine state titles in the 39 years of the IHSAA state tournament and next week they'll be in the stands watching Lafayette Catholic win state again. The Knights have won 42 games in a row and they have overwhelmed everyone all year. Catholic is fast and quick. Only 3A No. 2 West Lafayette (12-1) has come within 20 points of them. Something has to be done about private schools in Class 1A. Tradition-rich Sheridan was the last team to beat Lafayette Catholic in November of 2008. But they are out-manned. If Sheridan can stay with power running, get two or three turnovers and if there's a driving thunderstorm, the Black Hawks can come within two TDs. None of that is going to happen.

Lafayette Catholic 35, Sheridan 0

Linton-Stockton [13-0] at Indianapolis Scecina [10-3]:

INDIANAPOLIS (11-18-2011) Scecina plays a MUCH tougher schedule than Linton-Stockton, which is a teeny, tiny school in the middle of nowhere in Greene County. Scecina has not lost to a 1A school. Linton is the "people's choice." They are 95-16 in the last nine years, but have not won state because the competition outclasses them late in the tournament. They'll play this one at the University of Indianapolis, which means the field will be in good condition. That's good for Austin Karazsina, who has thrown 42 touchdown passes for Linton, and he will have a passer's chance. Here's a rare good game this week.

Scecina 35, Linton-Stockton 28

CLASS 2A

Bremen [13-0] at Bishop Luers [11-1]:

FORT WAYNE (11-18-2011) Come on, man. Bremen has been excellent all year. Outstanding multiple offense. They've run and passed well. But Luers is the two-time defending state champ and they are 5-0 against 5A schools. The Knights have won every game by 10 or more. The so-called loss was a game that Luers won by 50 points and lost by forfeit. Bremen can score, but they'll have the same problem stopping Luers, which has scored 4 TDs or more in every game, that everyone has had.

Bishop Luers 35, Bremen 21

2A Guerin Catholic [10-3] at (Evansville) Mater Dei [12-1]:

EVANSVILLE (11-18-2011) Mater Dei has only lost once: 51-48 to 5A Castle in 2 overtimes. No one has contained Mater Dei's offense and Guerin has allowed 20 points a game. That's a red flag. A big one. This is a Saturday afternoon game and that helps Guerin, which has to drive 100 miles. The winner gets to lose to Luers over the Thanksgiving weekend. Here's another Catholic school love-fest and one of the few close games. If Andrean had defeated Wheeler like they were supposed to, we'd have had four private schools in the semifinals.

Mater Dei 28, Guerin 24

CLASS 3A

West Lafayette [12-1] at (SB) St. Joseph's [11-2]:

SOUTH BEND (11-18-2011) St. Joseph's is the defending semistate champ, but WL is 37-4 over the last three years. West Lafayette's only loss was to Lafayette Catholic (13-0), but one of St. Joe's two losses is to Penn (13-0). St. Joe has two consecutive shutouts, but no West Lafayette foe has scored more than 3 TDs in any game this year. I think West Lafayette pulls this one out on the road, but this game is too close to call.

West Lafayette 27, St. Joseph's 20

Bishop Chatard [11-2] at Corydon Central [11-2]:

CORYDON (11-18-2011) This is another one where you might not want to watch. No. 1 Chatard has 10 state titles, while Corydon won 47-41 in overtime last week. This is probably the biggest game in the history of Corydon high, down in Harrison County near the Kentucky state line. It's the first time they've even been beyond the sectional. The win over Evansville Memorial was a major upset. Corydon also took out perennial power Heritage Hills 13-12 in the sectional title game. It could be the greatest story ever told, but it could also be a horror show. It's Twilight time for Corydon.

Bishop Chatard 41, Corydon Central 14

CLASS 4A

(SB) Washington [10-3] at Leo [13-0]:

LEO (11-18-2011) Washington has some top flight offensive players including Gehrig Dieter, who has caught passes for a state-leading 1700 yards. But this is Leo's time. They're 25-21 in the last two seasons and no one has scored more than 3 TDs on the Lions all season. I thought Washington would put on a great show if they got indoors (the state finals), but the Panthers should have lost last week and they play too much of a high-risk offense.

Leo 21, SBW 7

Columbus East [12-1] at Indianapolis Cathedral [10-3]:

INDIANAPLIS (11-18-2011) The feature game. The state's top offensive player, Columbus East senior QB Gunner Kiel against the state's most feared team, Cathedral which has played rivals from three states. The Irish beat Pendleton Heights (11-2) last week by five TDs, but they face Kiel (6-4, 220), the high school All-American who originally committed to play at Indiana University, but then backed out of that promise to seek other schools like Michigan, Notre Dame and Alabama. They'll play this at North Central high school and it will come down to how often East can get the ball away from Cathedral, which can run and control the clock. Cathedral has already beaten 3A No. 1 Bishop Chatard and 5A Regional champ Snider, but East has averaged 45 points a game. Wish this game was on TV.

Cathedral 31, Columbus East 21

CLASS 5A

(FW) Snider [9-4] at Penn [13-0]:

OSCEOLA (11-18-2011) Even the folks at Penn disagree on whether Penn is in Mishawaka or Osceola. But it won't matter because wherever the school is, the football team plays well there. These teams met earlier this year and Penn won 31-13. Penn has allowed just 12 TDs all season. The Kingsmen don't have a great RB or QB, but that's all they don't have. Snider knows they will lose before they get on the bus. This game is a lock. Bet your little brother on this one.

Penn 42, Snider 14

Center Grove [9-4] at Carmel [12-1]:

CARMEL (11-18-2011) Here's another blowout. The Greyhounds have won close ones back-to-back over No. 1 Warren Central and No. 5 Ben Davis. Center Grove has a nice team, but they were 5-4 on the regular season, they've given up 20 points a game and they haven't faced a top team in the post-season. Carmel jacked up Center Grove 42-17 in September. Unless there's an ice storm or Carmel thinks this is a "bye week," the Greyhounds will bark their way to Indianapolis.

Carmel 40, Center Grove 17