Week 15 Picks:  2004 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

November 25, 2004

WEEK FOURTEEN (14) ANALYSIS:

Nine out of 10 seems good but you really ought to be able to pick ALL 10 of the semistate games correctly. You have 13 weeks of games including a month of playoffs to go on. Chatard was leading Heritage Hills 10-0 when all-time leading rusher Dray Mason broke his collarbone. That shouldn't have affected the Trojans as much as it did. Heritage Hills shut them out from that point on. I'm pretty sure Chatard is the better team. When you're told that defense win championships, how does that explain offensive dynamos Andrean, Warren Central, Snider (56 ppg.), Tri-West and Wawasee in the state final game? On ALL of those teams, the offense is significantly better than the defense.

State finals games are traditionally tougher to pick than the semistates because the conditions change from 40 degrees and muddy to 70 degrees and pool table dry indoors. Anyone who thinks they KNOW the outcome of these five games is as crazy as Ricky Williams.

(Week One) 11 of 14, 78.5%

(Week Two) 8 of 13, 61.5%

(Week Three) 8 of 12, 66.7%

(Week Four) 11 of 12, 91.7%

(Week Five) 10 of 12, 83.3%

(Week Six) 7 of 12, 58.3 %

(Week Seven) 8 of 12, 66.7%

(Week Eight) 7 of 12, 58.3%

(Week Nine) 8 of 12, 66.7%

(Week Ten) 23 of 30, 66.7%

(Week Eleven) 15 of 20, 75.0%

(Week Twelve) 14 of 20, 70.0%

(Week Thirteen) 13 of 20, 65.0%

(Week Fourteen) 9 of 10, 90.0%

REGULAR SEASON: 77-111, 69.4%

PLAYOFFS: 74-100, 74.0%

2004 TOTAL: 151 of 211, 71.5%

WEEK FIFTEEN (15), State Championships: Nov. 26-27, 2004

1A -- Seeger (14-0) 27, Ritter (10-4) 14

This is a rematch of the 2003 state championship, won by Ritter 28-0.

The entire state (except NW Indiana, which does not get the games on TV) gets to see Eli Cook (225 carries, 1,953 yards, 45 TDs), arguably Seeger's all-time greatest player. Cook also has 117 tackles on defense. Every foe talks about the speed of the defense which has allowed only 84 points all season. Ritter's 10-4 record is highly deceptive. None of the losses are to 1A schools. Ritter fullback David Evans (6-1, 210) has run 338 times for 2,170 yards. Seeger has never won a state title and has waited 12 months for this rematch. Ritter has allowed almost 1,900 yards rushing and that's a bad sign going against Seeger. On paper, Seeger should win but schools like Ritter and Roncalli are to public schools what those 'Swift Boat' ads were to John Kerry. 

2A -- Tri-West (14-0) 35, Eastbrook (14-0) 20

Tri-West is overwhelming on offense. Sophomore QB Tyler Bruce (164-287, 2,673 yards, 27 TDs, 10 INTs) mans Tri-West's lethal spread attack and he apparently hits Chris Rutherford (6-3, 175) at will. Rutherford has gained 1,160 yards on only 54 catches.

Halfback Adam Quilter (5-10, 180) is overlooked with 1,332 yards on 218 carries. Eastbrook is 14-0 with a balanced attack and 19 interceptions. But there's just no way they outscore Tri-West.

Fox will hire Dan Rather before Eastbrook wins this one.

3A -- Andrean (12-2) 28, Heritage Hills (14-0) 23

Andrean's fourth try at the state crown is blocked by a team that is 68-3 over the last five years. The 59ers' Tommy Finn (214-348, 3,210 yards, 34 TDs, 6 INTs) returns to the field where his brother Bobby Finn had one of his best games in a 27-24 loss to Bishop Chatard six years ago. The Patriots have lost only four fumbles all season while running for 2,600 yards. They have committed just 48 penalties and allowed only 9 first downs a game. But are these numbers a product of the schedule?

Andrean's 21^st century offense (two 1,000-yard receivers and a 1,000-yard rusher) is something the Patriots must adjust to before too many points go up on the board. Andrean has less of a defense than Ron Artest has for beating up that fan but the 59ers went from hoping they can win to knowing they will win when Chatard lost. 

4A -- Roncalli (12-2) 31, Wawasee (13-1) 17

Roncalli goes for a third consecutive title against another space age attack. The Warriors have gained almost 6,000 yards and no one has held them under 20 points. Senior QB Kory Lantz (121-202, 1,910 yards, 17 TDs, 9 INTs) and hard-running tailback Jordan Swain (282-2,546, 26 TDs) spearhead another three wide receiver attack that might be even more vicious than Tri-West and Andrean. But the 7-time state champs allow just 10 points and 179 yards a game. Roncalli has only turned the ball over eight times in 14 games. I think the Rebels have played too good a schedule for these numbers to be misleading.

Roncalli has beaten Cathedral (7-5) Bishop Chatard (11-3), Mooresville (12-1) and Columbus East (13-1).

Roncalli is one of those dreaded Indianapolis private schools and they are seeking a record eighth state title in the 32 years of the state tournament. Wawasee is a nice place to visit in the summertime. 

5A Warren Central (13-1) 42, (FW) Snider (14-0) 40

Warren Central puts a ridiculous 5,498 yards rushing offense on the speed-friendly artificial turf against Snider's insane 56 points per game offense. Snider QB MiQuale Lewis (5-8, 180) has 1,330 yards on just 119 carries and LCJ Martin (5-7, 180) has run for 1,215 yards on 135 carries. Terrance Hayden has also run 95 times for 1,063 yards.

But Snider counters with RB Darryl Evans (276-2,082 yards, 26 TDs) and QB Dexter Taylor (160-1,131 yards, 19 TDs). Neither team can throw the ball but the artificial turf is built for these teams. Arena football lives here as nobody stops anybody.

Central has played a tougher schedule and is the defending 5A champion. But there's no solid reason to pick against either team. Both could outscore the Chicago Bulls.

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Revised: November 29, 2004 .