Week 15 Picks:  2005 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

November 23, 2005

WEEK-14 ANALYSIS:  Hamilton Southeastern has now beaten Carmel, Snider and Merrillville in successive weeks.  I think Warren Central will slaughter them, but I've picked against SE three weeks is a row and I'm 0-3.  Hey, I thought NASCAR was just a passing fad.  Lowell should have won at home and they did.  Jimtown and Roncalli picked up nice wins on the road.  Note that the tradition of low-scoring semistate games (due to weather and pressure) continued.  Chatard is now 4-1 against Heritage Hills in the last five years, all semistate games.  Note that no No. 1 teams remain in the state tourney, but two defending champs (Warren Central and Roncalli) are.  You might conclude that the best way to win titles is to play teams that can beat you during the regular season.  You might also conclude that it helps to be a private school that draws kids from a half dozen catholic grade schools in Indianapolis.  If you're waiting for an explanation of how a 20-point favorite Griffith lost by seven at a nearly .500 (everybody has injuries) Northwood team after leading 10-0, don't hold your breath.  It'll be six months before Griffith gets over that one.

WEEK 14 (2005) PIX recap

WEEK 14: 8 OF 10, 80%

WEEK 13: 11 OF 20, 65.0%

WEEK 12: 14 OF 18, 77.7%

WEEK 11: 13 of 16, 81.3%

WEEK 10: 21 of 27, 77.7%

WEEK 9: 7 of 11, 63.6%

WEEK 8: 9 of 12, 75.0%

WEEK 7: 10 of 12, 83.3%

WEEK 6: 9 OF 13, 69.2%

WEEK 5: 10 OF 14, 71.4%

WEEK 4: 9 OF 12, 75.0%

WEEK 3: 7 of 13, 53.8%

WEEK 2: 11 of 15, 73.3%

WEEK 1: 16 of 20, 80%

9-WEEK REGULAR SEASON: 88 of 122, 72.1%

PLAYOFFS: 67 of 91, 73.6%
2005 Season: 155 of 213, 72.7%

2004 Overall: 156 of 216, 72.2%

WEEK 15 (FIFTEEN) PREDICTIONS

State Championships, 11-25 & 11-26-2005

Football fans (those who have cable anyway) finally get to see football from all around the state as ComCast carries all five games from the RCA Dome this weekend beginning at 2:30 p.m., CST Friday.  Watch Sheridan and super freshman Nick Zachary.  Lake County fans can see JImtown for the first time and watch Chatard beat up on somebody other than Andrean.

Hopefully the announcers won't be too biased/familiar with the Indianapolis area schools at the expense of Northwood and Lowell. There isn't a great match up here so the focus will be on 4A and 5A where Warren Central and their 50 points per game attack goes for a third consecutive title and Roncalli is trying for a state record fourth straight crown.

Friday, Nov. 25

Class A – 2:30 p.m. CST – Knightstown (14-0) vs. Sheridan (12-2).

Class 2A – 6:00 p.m. CST – Jimtown (13-1) vs. North Posey (12-2).

Saturday, Nov. 26

Class 3A – 11:00 a.m. CST –Indianapolis Bishop Chatard (12-2) vs. NorthWood (8-6).

Class 4A – 2:30 p.m. CST – Lowell (10-4) vs. Roncalli (12-2).

Class 5A – 6:05 p.m. CST – Warren Central (13-1) vs. Hamilton Southeastern (11-3).

Class 1A  --  Sheridan (12-2) 31, Knightstown  (14-0) 21

INDIANAPOLIS  -  Weeks ago, I stopped going against Sheridan.  Sheridan is undefeated against 1A schools.  Knightstown plays almost always against 1A schools.  Knightstown does have QB Eric Freeman (113-197, 2,017 yards, 32 TDs, 5 INTs) and RB Matt Cox (335 carries, 2,050 yards) but the schedule is weak.  Sheridan is 4-1 against 3A schools and they have 14-year-old Nick Zachary (6-2, 180) who has run the ball 206 times for 1,690 yards and an outrageous 25 TDs.  Junior halfback Dustin Colvin (216 carries, 1,286 yards) and big junior fullback Taylor Scott (6-2, 221) who has carried 195 times for 1,097 yards, give the Blackhawks a triple threat.  Everybody's on a winning streak at this point, but Sheridan appears to be playing like Seeger from 2004.  A quick team with individual stars that will excel on the artificial turf.


Class 2A  --  Jimtown (13-1) 28, North Posey (12-2) 7

INDIANAPOLIS - Jimtown is speed-oriented and the RCA Dome  'carpet' exaggerates speed.  North Posey appears to be the weakest team here.  Jimtown has allowed just 94 points all year.  North Posey has allowed 90 points in the playoffs alone. This is a mismatch on the perimeter and, if things break well for the Jimmies early, this could be a rout of major proportions.


Class 3A  --  Bishop Chatard  (12-2) 35, Northwood (8-6) 9

INDIANAPOLIS -  I've picked against Northwood for two weeks and I thought they'd have absolutely no chance against Griffith.  The Panthers have won four playoff games in a row with a total of just 83 points and they can bring nine defensive players to the front because Chatard cannot pass effectively.  But I have one stat for you.  Chatard is 7-0 in state title games and 11-2 this season even though everyone knows that all they can do is run.

How? The Chatard offensive line averages over 250 pounds and junior HB Joe Holland (6-2, 190) has gained 2,157 yards on 309 carries. It'll be close for a half.  The big problem for other 3A schools in Indiana is that much of Bishop Chatard's 2005 roster is underclassmen.
For example, Matt and Jeff Vaughn are Chatard offensive linemen.  Matt is 6-4, 275, Jeff is 6-4, 270.  Matt is a junior.  Jeff is a sophomore.  The Trojans only have 25 seniors on a roster of 80.  After Saturday, the gap between Chatard and the rest of the state in 3A widens again.

Class 4A  --  Roncalli  (12-2) 28, Lowell (10-4) 16

INDIANAPOLIS -   This game won't be a rout even though Roncalli has infinitely more playoff experience than Lowell does. I think the artificial turf helps Lowell, which may be a touch faster on the perimeter.  One key obviously is Lowell QB Jimmy Ritter (79-140, 988 yards), who could find open receivers in the 72-degree comfort of the Dome as Roncalli will bring eight defenders to the front against Scott Gray (307, 2,183 yards).  The Rebels held Jasper's D-1, 2000-yard rushing star Luke Schmidt (6-2, 235) to just 120 yards on 18 carries in Jasper last week.  Roncalli may not need to overload the front and could be capable of double-covering coast-to-coast threat Jeff Clemens (48 catches, 699 yards).  The Rebels combine senior HB Chris Merkel (310, 1,877 yards) and junior QB Paul Corsaro (85-148, 1,320 yards, 13 TDS, 4 INTs), who has passing ability and Lowell's secondary is the team's weakness.  Chatard also has no more than three players going both ways.  Northwood and Lowell will bring very large crowds and create some drama, but the Indy Catholic schools rule.

Class 5A  --  Warren Central (13-1) 51, Hamilton Southeastern (11-3) 21

INDIANAPOLIS  - Warren Central is always ready to go and indoors, Hamilton has a huge speed problem here. SE has allowed 2300 yards rushing in 14 games and that's a little too many against a team with 6,000 rushing yards. How can a team have two 2,000 yard rushers playing seven 5A schools in Indiana and an 8A school (East St. Louis) from Illinois?  Unless Warren Central fumbles four times or gets somebody injured early,  Southeastern cannot hold Warren Central for more than a half.

This is a match up of two of the state's biggest schools in Warren Central (3,243 kids) and Southeastern (2,607).  This will be Southeastern's last shot at a 5A title for awhile because they are splitting into two schools, Southeastern and the new Fishers high in 2006.  I'm not even sure Southeastern will be 5A when the new enrollment rankings are made next year.

WC QB Dexter Taylor (5-10, 185) has carried 133 times for 1,946 yards, a ridiculous 14 yards a carry.  Junior Darren Evans (6-2, 205) has carried 220 times for 2,067 yards. There is no 'bend but don't break' defense here.  You have to blitz them a lot and you have to get to the back a lot or you will bend and break all night long.  Warren Central, which leads the state with 731 points scored and 95 touchdowns, has been rated 10 points better than every other team in the state all year and they avenged their only loss (to Lawrence North) with a seven touchdown victory.  Central won't shut out SE but defense doesn't win indoors.  Just ask the Colts.

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Revised: November 23, 2005 .