Week 15 Picks:  2006 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

November 24, 2006

WEEK (14) FOURTEEN RECAP:  Except in Class 2A, where it wasn't hard to pick the lower rated team for several reasons, I believe that all of the higher ranked teams won semistate games, so week 14 was not a surprise to most.  Concord winning outdoors and on the road in the final two weeks says a lot for them.  As always, the Indianapolis private schools (Cathedral, Chatard, Ritter) dominate in football.  Anybody who says they don't, doesn't know the facts.  Chatard and Roncalli lost state finals last year and people forgot they have to go 5-0 to get to the finals.

BIGGEST WINNER - WEEK (14) FOURTEEN:  Concord - The 'Green Storm' was 14 points in the whole before they fired up the winds of change and rallied to win gong away.  To be honest, the finals would have been boring had Concord not made it.  Northern Indiana's premier passing attack gained 300 yards in Fort Wayne and QB Bobby Cira should run wild in the RCA Dome on state wide TV.

RUNNER UP: WEEK (14) FOURTEEN:  Warren Central - This might seem an odd pick, but Warren Central's season would have been a failure had they not won the first 14 weeks.  Now, they have the motivational edge.  5A state finalist Carmel is not playing for what 5A state finalist Warren Central is playing for Saturday night.  No Indiana team has won four consecutive state titles and Warren has three.  To reach this point is a great achievement being heavily favored in every game.

WEEK 14 (2006) PIX recap

WEEK 1:  9 of 13 = 69.1%
WEEK 2:  10 of 15 = 66.7%
WEEK 3:  11 of 13 = 84.6%
WEEK 4:  11 of 14 = 78.6%
WEEK 5:  9 of 12 = 75.0%
WEEK 6:  10 of 13 = 76.9%
WEEK 7:  11 of 12 = 91.7%
WEEK 8:  10 of 11 = 83.3%
WEEK 9:  7 of 12 = 58.3%
WEEK 10:  19 of 24 = 79.1%
WEEK 11:  17 of 22 = 77.2%
WEEK 12:  16 of 21 = 76.2%
WEEK 13:  14 of 20 = 70.0%
WEEK 14:  9 of 10 = 90.0%

2006 Regular Season: 88 of 115 = 76.5%
2006 Playoffs:  75 of 96 = 78.1%
2006 Season Overall to date:  163 of 212 = 76.9% 
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

Northwest Indiana
WEEK 15 (FIFTEEN) PICKS, 11-24-2006

(11-24-2006)  WEEK (15) FIFTEEN -  Once again, the spotlight should again be on Classes 3A and 4A.  Last year Northwood and Lowell upset Chatard and Roncalli.  This time, two of the state's premier offensive teams in Concord (43.2 ppg.) and Norwell (48.3  ppg.) take on two of the state's premier defenses and perennial champs.  The intrigue is strength of schedule and the indoor facility.  Sheridan and Ritter should see a lot of points go up while Harding and Southridge can go a lot of ways.  The 5A game can only go one way.  But in the same way everyone wanted to see three-time state basketball champ Lawrence North earlier this year, everybody wants to see the greatest Indiana high school football team of all time.  There are some good matchups, but these games are not as close as they might appear.  Last I heard, the state title games will be on Comcast Cable Channel 27.  If they are not there, look on Channel 26 and Channel 4.  Comcast gave different messages as to where the games would be.  They will be on cable.

11-24-6 -  FRIDAY (3:30 p.m.,  EST - 1A)

Sheridan is the favorite with soph QB Nick Zachary (6-2, 195) off last year's defending champs and they are a big (for 1A) team that can run the ball.  Cory Paddock (6-5, 290) is Sheridan's right tackle and they have a freshman Jake Childers (5-9, 285) plus a sophomore receiver Grady Roaten (6-7, 182).  Soph Arick Clements (6-1, 290) is too big to be real. Where do they get these boys?  There's a reason that all three members of Sheridan's backfield have rushed for 1,000 yards.  Sheridan will be state class for many years to come.  Outdoors in late November, Sheridan would be a big favorite.  But Ritter was in the 2003 and 2004 state title games and the RCA Dome is made for passing.  Ritter QB Nick Purichia is 168-of-274 with 36 TDs and 11 interceptions.  He has two 1,000-yard receivers.  South Newton QB Eric Watt was 29 of 50 for 385 yards last week in Newton's 63-33 loss to Sheridan. He roasted the Sheridan secondary like so many weenies.  Get ready for 1,000 yards of offense.  Ritter can't stop Sheridan, but they can outscore them.

            (1A) Cardinal Ritter (13-1) 38, Sheridan (14-0) 36

11-24-6  -   FRIDAY (7:00 p.m., EST - 2A)

This is the wild card game that can go either way.  Southridge has the better record and is a slight favorite on the Sagarin Computer (which is correct about 80 percent of the time). But Harding's team speed should be accentuated on the artificial turf.  This is a totally speed based pick.  Not only does Southridge not possess speed like Harding, they haven't seen it either.  Fort Wayne teams usually struggle outdoors late in the year because they are speed-based city teams.  This is basketball on grass with members of Harding's highly-ranked basketball team.  A new legend is beginning in the form of Harding's Rod Smith (6-2, 197) who has 1,732 yards on 253 carries.  That isn't odd except that he is a 14-year-old freshman.  How good does a 14-year-old have to be to gain 1,732 yards against 17 and 18 year olds?  Harding QB Devin Dominiquez (6-5, 207) has thrown only 158 passes, but he's thrown for 28 touchdowns.  Deaundre Muhammad has caught 69 passes for an outrageous 1,366 yards.  That means he's running away from everybody.  Southridge has no 1,000 yards rusher and they have thrown 115 passes all year.  The Raiders' defense has to stop Harding, which has seen big scary monsters all year in Fort Wayne's Summit Athletic Conference.  Indoors where Harding is a step faster?  It wont happen.  This looks like a butt-kicking.

            (2A)   Harding 44, Southridge  21

11-25 6 - SATURDAY  12:00 p.m., EST - 3A)

Here is a main event game.  This game will fool a lot of people because Norwell comes in with ridiculous offensive numbers and a 14-0 record.  Say good bye to them.  No one has truly stopped the rushing attack of Bishop Chatard all year and they'll find that the option game they ran on New Prairie and Griffith won't work against a defense that has held 10 foes to 10 points or less.  Norwell's schedule is extremely questionable and they got Griffith at home.  Norwell HB Cole Hoopingarner (5-10, 171) has 1,932 yards (on 192 carries) and 31 TDs.  QB Chandler Harnish (6-3 200) is a shifty bad boy with 20 TDs rushing and 24 TD passes.  Norwell averages an extreme 48 points per game.  But the Knights are dealing with one of Indianapolis' famed 'Axis of Evil' (Chatard, Roncalli and Cathedral) the three city Catholic schools that have won 20 state titles combined.  Plus the Trojans will be reminded all week how they were embarrassed in the RCA 7-0 last year by an inferior Northwood team because they were not ready.  The Trojans will be juiced up from the opening gun and Norwell, a suburban Fort Wayne school, has not seen what BC can bring to the table at the point of attack along the offensive and defensive lines.  Chatard's 'Little Joe' Holland (6-2, 190) needs 57 yards for his second consecutive 2,000-yard season.  HB Tyler Kleinschmidt (6-1, 175) has 1,041 yards and 20 TDs on just 98 carries.  And Chatard, which couldn't throw the ball back to the line of scrimmage last year, now has Rob Doyle (6-0, 190) who has thrown for 1,040 yards, 15 TDs and just three interceptions.  Norwell gets shut down for the first time all season.  Ask Andrean (0-3 in state finals vs. Chatard) what playing Chatard in Indianapolis is like.  It's just a different level of competition.

            (3A) Bishop Chatard (13-1) 31, Norwell (14-0) 13

SATURDAY (2:30 p.m., EST - 4A)

Concord has the best offense I've seen this year.  QB Bobby Cira is Peyton Manning's little brother (Oh, sorry he already has a little brother.  But Cira actually PLAYS like Peyton Manning) with 3,500 yards passing and a state best 45 TD passes.  Indoors, he'll be even better.  But Cathedral may have the state's best defense.  They have allowed 210 yards a game and they have 35 takeaways including 20 interceptions.  Cathedral tailback William Stubbs (5-11, 210) is a butt-kicker.  Cathedral senior QB Bobby Powers has thrown for 15 TDs. Concord isn't that good defensively.  Lowell and Dwenger were able to run on them.  An interesting player is Cathedral sophomore Kapindi Jamiri (5-9, 195) who has 17 quarterback sacks and 27 tackles for loss.  How?  What does he do?  Cathedral has beaten 5A state finalist Carmel and 3A state finalist Chatard.  But  Bishop Dwenger had a top defense, too, and Concord scored 48 points on Dwenger.  Does Cathedral have four top man-to-man defenders who can lock up the receivers until the line sacks Cira?  I'm not sure, but I don't think so.

            (4A) Concord (14-0) 42, (Indianapolis) Cathedral (13-1) 31

SATURDAY ( 6:00 p.m., EST - 5A)

First of all, this is an anti-climax.  You don't really want two teams from the same conference who play every year to meet in the state title game.  The Indianapolis Metro Conference is the best league in the state, but nobody wants to see Ohio State beat Michigan again and that's clearly what we have here.  Central halfback Darren Evans (272 carries, 2,605 yards) has rushed for almost 200 yards a game and a state-record 58 TDs behind an offensive line that averages 255 pounds a man.  At the high school level, what can you do about that?  Carmel says they aren't intimidated, but they're lying.  That's what football players have to say.  WC tight end Ed Hazlett is 6-foot-9 and 235 pounds and he's a sophomore.  He doesn't play much.  WR Adrian Robinson (6-2, 225) averages 20 yards a catch and blocks for Evans.  Compared to other elite teams, both of the Greyhounds' QBs are average and their kicking game is mediocre.  They didn't have to meet Penn or Crown Point to get here.  Carmel's regular season schedule was tougher than their playoff schedule.  Warren Central could lose Evans to injury on the first play of the game and they would put someone else back there who'd gain 100 yards.  How do I know?  Junior halfback Jewel Hampton (5-9, 185) averages 10 yards a carry.  It's the blocking.  Good luck with senior tackle Sherman Brooks (6-4, 320).  WC has to lose four fumbles to make this close.  Carmel's Aaron King (315, 2,314 yards) is the hammer that wins for Carmel's dominant defense, but Carmel's defense can't stop WC, which gained 300 yards on them in September.  The earlier meeting went to Warren 28-0 and Carmel, which gained just 80 total yards in the first meeting, has to find a way to make this game different on a faster track.  I guess they can't.  I guess they won't.  Carmel is toast and they know it.

            (5A Warren Central 51, Carmel (12-2) 14


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Revised: November 24, 2006 .