Week 15 Football Picks

WEEK 14, 2007 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 3; Right - 7 = 70%
The Pick	The Result
(1A) Ritter 30, Rockville 20	Wrong... Rockville 35-17
Sheridan 35, Churubusco 7	Correct... Sheridan 48-13
(2A) Lewis Cass 28, Bishop Luers 21	Wrong... Bishop Luers 14-0
Heritage Christian 26, Southridge 21	Correct... Heritage Christian 24-14
(3A) St. Joseph's 35, Concordia 21	Correct... St. Joseph's 28-10
Bishop Chatard 23, Heritage Hills 12	Correct... Bishop Chatard 28-17
(4A) Cathedral 27, Reitz 14	Wrong... Reitz 35-34
LOWELL 31, Bishop Dwenger 24	Correct... LOWELL 10-7
(5A) Pike 23, Columbus North 14	Correct... Pike 20-14
Carmel 17, MERRILLVILLE 12	Correct... Carmel 35-13

The Final Home Game - WEEK 14 (Fourteen) Recap - Nov. 16-17, 2007: Reitz pulled off a modern day miracle, erasing a 34-21 deficit in the final seven minutes against the defending state champ. To be honest, if they played again, I'd pick Cathedral again. I am very surprised that Lewis Cass couldn't even score a point on Bishop Luers but speed clearly overcame size. And my sincerest apologies to the all-mighty Rockville Rocks. (Where is Rockville exactly?)

The other games went largely as expected except for the Lowell-Bishop Dwenger game and the home field was a big factor there. In the future, teams that have to travel two hours should insist that the game be played on Saturday night. It doesn't make sense to do anything else at the Semistate level. Unless I'm mistaken, all the teams that traveled 100 miles or more on Friday night went home losers.

2007 (Week 1) 8 of 13   = 66.7%
2007 (Week 2) 8 of 11   = 72.7%
2007 (Week 3) 8 of 12   = 66.7%
2007 (Week 4) 10 of 11   = 90.9%
2007 (Week 5) 6 of 10 = 60.0%
2007 (Week 6) 6 of 10 = 60.0%
2007 (Week 7) 10 of 10 = 100.0%
2007 (Week 8) 6 of 10 = 60.0%
2007 (Week 9) 9 of 10 = 90.0%

Playoffs
2007 (week 10) 23 of 28   = 82.1%
2007 (week 11) 12 of 16 = 75.0%
2007 (week 12) 12 of 16 = 75.0%
2007 (week 13) 14 of 16   = 87.5%
2007 (week 14) 7 of 10 =    70.0%

2007 (regular season) 71 of 97 = 73.2%
2007 (playoffs) 68 of 86 = 78.3%
2007 (overall) 139 of 183 = 75.9%

2006 (final) OVERALL : 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%

Northwest Indiana
WEEK 15 (FIFTEEN) PICKS, 11-23/24-2007

LOWELL (11-20-2007) - Everybody can relax now because we have reached the finals and everybody still playing has had a great season. To play in the RCA Dome is the reward and teams shouldn't live in fear of losing. This is a game where you want to do your best on the biggest stage and you want to play as tough a tram as you can possibly find. Playing Saturday takes away the travel disadvantage because the traveling team has all day to get to the destination.

The match of undefeated teams Sheridan and Rockville is interesting, because I don't think Rockville has won a state title in anything. Private schools will win the 2A and 3A titles because Bishop Luers battles Heritage Christian in 2A and St. Joseph's plays Bishop Chatard in 3A.

All the state final games are on ComCast or Insight Cable. In Lake County, it's Comcast Cable Channel 26 or 27. You don't have to do anything. It's a free offering. Many have asked if you can see the game if you do not have cable? Well? No. The IHSAA network is a partner with the cable systems in these state-wide broadcasts. They want you to buy cable. It wouldn't make any sense to get the rights to the games but then allow anyone else who wants to to show them. If you do not have cable and you just 'have to' see the final games, you need to buy up some of that $3 per gallon gas and head for Indianapolis. It is not like going to an NFL game. The RCA Dome is half empty and there's room to spread out and be comfortable. Since this is the final year for the RCA Dome, you might want to go anyway.

Last week I said I'd get 80% right in the final two weeks. Unless my grade school education is failing me here, that means I need 5-out-of-5 on the final weekend.

That's not as bold a test as it may seem. Look at who's here. Sheridan has won eight state titles, Luers has won six and Bishop Chatard has won eight. I don't know if I have to go too far out on a limb to pick them. Especially since they appear to be heavy favorites anyway. I wonder how good Pike is, even after 14 games. There's no doubt about Carmel. So it comes down to the Reitz-Lowell game, which matches schools that are almost 250 miles apart. No one really has any idea of how that game is going to come out. Which means you have to watch.

1A: No. 5 Rockville (14-0) vs. No. 1 Sheridan (14-0), Fri, Nov. 23 - 3:30 p.m. (EST)

INDIANAPOLIS - The all-mighty Rocks rushed for 236 yards on 49 carries to control Ritter last week 35-17, holding Ritter to 10 yards rushing. I think you have to throw the ball to beat Sheridan, which will dominate the time of possession with big linemen. The Blackhawks are going for their third consecutive title and the 58-13 win over Churubusco indicates they might be ready for Friday. Sheridan has a 36-game winning streak.

Matt King (6-4, 195) has thrown for 2,300 yards for Rockville so they have the offense. But physically, they don't match up. Sheridan beat 3A Hamilton Heights (8-3) by 10 points. Sheridan also beat 3A West Lafayette (without their starting QB) by 29 points. The trick is an offensive line that includes Cory Paddock (6-4, 315) Arick Clements (6-3, 306) and Oliver Wise (6-1, 302). I can't explain where Sheridan gets three 300-pound linemen in a school of 382, but it's no surprise that junior QB Nick Zachary (217 carries, 1,983 yards), who has never played in a losing game, has scored 40 TDs and that tailback Ty Perkins (189 carries, 1,502 yards) has scored 21. I don't see this one being close.

Sheridan 35, Rockville 7

2A: No. 9 Bishop Luers (10-4) vs. Heritage Christian (13-1), Fri, Nov. 23 - 6:00 p.m. (EST)

INDIANAPOLIS - Luers is a six-time state champ, while Heritage Christian has only had varsity football for six years. But this game is a lot closer than that life history. HC has made an amazing rise and they've beaten almost all comers. In fact, the only team to beat Heritage Christian, Triton Central (10-1), lost a rematch 31-3. Heritage Christian gave up 200 yards rushing against Southridge, even though HC won 24-14. Luers was a 3A school for the last four years and their post-season success was limited. Luers QB Quinn Schafer (6-4, 190) has thrown for 2,000 yards but it's the defense, led by 210-pound junior linebacker Tyquan Hammack (142 tackles) that will win or lose this one. Now, back at 2A, the Knights have dominated as their tradition (7 state titles) suggests, allowing only six TDs in five playoff games.

But Garrett Meador (6-2, 190), the HC quarterback, is 237-of-432 for 3,349 yards, 17 interceptions and 42 touchdowns. Now, he gets to come indoors. Morgan Cook (6-3, 190) has caught 65 passes for 1,135 yards. I like Luers' schedule better, but I wouldn't bet anything on this game either way.

Bishop Luers 28, Heritage Christian 24

3A: No. 4 (SB) St. Joseph's (12-2) at No. 2 Bishop Chatard (11-3), Sat, Nov. 24 - 12:00 Noon (EST)

INDIANAPOLIS - Chatard has beaten four winning teams to get to the finals, but St. Joseph's' has beaten five. Tailback Jordan Taylor (6-2, 215) has rushed for 2,339 yards (289 carries) and 25 TDs, but he's up against one of the state's elite defenses. St. Joe is the 1995 state champ, but Chatard has won eight titles. Sophomore tailback Ari Pappas of Chatard has rushed for 1,800 yards and it's hard to go against a team that is in the title game the third year in a row. The Trojans took out undefeated Heritage Hills at the Semistate. For Chatard QB Rob Doyle, this will be his third state title game.

Chatard has allowed 1,432 yards rushing ALL SEASON, and is led by all-state linebackers John Dury (6-2, 215) and Mike Dum (6-2, 205), who have combined for 200 tackles. This appears to be a low-scoring game, but I think Bishop Chatard can answer whatever St. Joe does.

Bishop Chatard 21, St. Joseph's 14

4A: No. 2 (Evansville) Reitz (14-0) vs. No. 6 Lowell (13-1), Sat, Nov. 24 - 3:30 p.m. (EST)

INDIANAPOLIS -A classic matchup of offense and defense. Reitz, with a 40-points per game offense, has scored 61 and 35 in the last two weeks, while Lowell has allowed only 62 points in five playoff games so far, including three on the road. Lowell has beaten five of the top-15 teams in the final AP poll. But nobody has beaten Reitz, which was a 5A team last year, and is in the title game for the second time in 90 years of varsity football.

This game should be fun because Reitz and QB Paul McIntosh (6-2, 200) is a ball of fire with 2,188 yards passing and 1,470 yards rushing all by himself. Lowell just faced a player like that when they beat undefeated Bishop Dwenger and John Goodman, but they faced him outdoors and in Lowell. Reitz has allowed over 500 yards rushing in the last two weeks and that's not a good sign for a team facing Lowell's Brandon Grubbe and Steffan Peck, who have combined for 2500 yards. Lowell won't throw much, but Jeff Barker (6-4, 205) averages 25 yards a catch. The defense is led by Lukas Palmer with eight interceptions and the pass rush of Barker, John Black and Joe Carlson, who have a combined 25 sacks. Lowell trailed top-ranked Dwenger 7-0 with seven minutes left and won 10-7 last week. Reitz trailed defending state champ Cathedral 34-21 with five minutes to go and won 35-34.

I think the running game of Lowell can keep Thompson off the field where the quick strike ability of Reitz only gives the ball back to the Devils. I thought Cathedral was the best 4A team, but Lowell is the state champion.

Lowell 30, (Evansville) Reitz 21

5A - No. 7 Carmel (12-2) vs. No. 1 Pike (14-0), Sat, Nov. 24 - 7:00 p.m. (EST)

INDIANAPOLIS -This might be the game of the weekend. Pike, which had never previously won a sectional in the 35 years of the state tournament, has reached the final with improbable victories over Hamilton Southeastern and Columbus North. Meanwhile Carmel, which lost in the state title game last year, has roared back to the RCA Dome with what everyone agrees is the state's best team. On the computer, Carmel is a 9-point favorite over an undefeated team. But Pike, down 14-0 last week, rallied to win. No one has scored more than 23 points on Pike all year. Both of Carmel's losses are by one point and they have three Division I skill players in halfback Aaron King (237 carries, 1,447 yards) who has run for 18 TDs, wide receiver Jordan Brewer (48 receptions, 962 yards) who has scored 15 TDs and junior QB Morgan Newton (115-of-193, 1,806 yards), who has thrown for 24 TDs. All of whom operate behind tackle Ryan Barnes (6-7, 297). Pike has had an unprecedented run but I just can't see Carmel losing here.

Carmel 35, Pike 14