Week 15 Picks:  2008 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

November 28, 2008

 

 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK 14, 2008 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 3; Right - 7 = 70.0%
The Pick	The Result
Class A
Sheridan 28, Southern Wells 7	Sheridan 48-14
Cardinal Ritter 21, Linton-Stockton 14	Cardinal Ritter 30-26
Class 2A
Lewis Cass 21, Jimtown 14	Lewis Cass 28-7
Heritage Christian 31, Brownstown 20	Heritage Christian 24-16
Class 3A
Northwood 35, Bellmont 28	WRONG... Bellmont 35-21
Bishop Chatard 27,  Evansville Memorial 14	WRONG... Evansville Memorial 27-14
Class 4A
Cathedral 28, Columbus East 21	Cathedral 41-10
LOWELL 14, Bishop Dwenger 10	WRONG... Bishop Dwenger 38-22
Class 5A
Carmel 28, Penn 6	Carmel 38-3
Center Grove 42, Ben Davis 21	Center Grove 49-21

 

WEEK-FOURTEEN (14) RECAP from Friday, November 21, 2008:  The big upset is state champ Chatard losing in Evansville, but the semistate trend is for distant road teams to win.  After 14 road teams won regionals, I went against that trend five times in the semistate and lost three.  Bellmont-Northwood was tied 21-21 after three quarters but games are four quarters long, last time I checked.  (I never really checked that.  They don't let me play.)  Lowell also led 22-16 in the third period before losing but, again, the home team in a game involving a lot of travel, was the semistate winner.  Even the Saturday date didn't help the Devils.  Not a good week.  I should have had eight correct at least.  There was no available logic to pick against Chatard.  Best pick of the week?  Clearly, Center Grove over Ben Davis by almost the exact score.

'Mr. Picker's Recent Picking Record

2008 (Week 14)  7 of 10   = 70.0%
2008 (Week 13)  16 of 20   = 80.0%
2008 (Week 12)  12 of 16   = 75.0%
2008 (Week 11)  14 of 16   = 87.5%
2008 (Week 10)  24 of 28   = 85.7%
2008 (Week 9)  9 of 11   = 81.8%
2008 (Week 8)  11 of 12   = 91.8%
2008 (Week 7)  5 of 10   = 50.0%
2008 (Week 6)  9 of 11   = 81.9%
2008 (Week 5)  5 of 10   = 50.0%
2008 (Week 4)  7 of 10   = 70.0%
2008 (Week 3)  7 of 12   = 58.3%
2008 (Week 2)  6 of 10   = 60.0%
2008 (Week 1)  9 of 12   =  75.0%
2008 Regular Season:  68 of 98 = 69.3%
2008 Playoff Season:  73 of 90 = 81.1%
2008 Year to Date:  141 of 188 = 75.0%
2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

INDIANAPOLIS (11-28-2008) -  Sheridan and Ritter is a title game rematch from 2006 while Carmel and Center Grove are part of that suspicious Indianapolis tournament slotting which has two teams 20 miles apart in the same conference in absolute opposite ends of the tourney bracket.  The all-Catholic matchup of Bishop Dwenger and Cathedral is going to bring talk of a format change as well.  Four private schools could win state titles and two of them (2A Heritage Christian and 3A Memorial) are significant favorites.  This is just the seventh year of Heritage Christian varsity football and they're in the finals for the second year in a row.  The best matchups are 1A and 5A.  I'm not sure the other games are close.  All the games will be carried live of you have Comcast Digital Cable.  It's on seldom-used channel 114.  There's not much to shoot for in the final week.  80% for the entire season is out of reach, although 4-of-5 will clinch 80% for the post-season.  And, of course, only 5-out-of-5 is acceptable in state title games.


Class A
Sheridan (13-1) vs. Ritter (14-0)

INDIANAPOLIS (11-28-2008) Sheridan will try for a fourth consecutive title, but Ritter is top-ranked and undefeated.  Sheridan is built to play outdoors with a strong running game led by 2,000-yard rusher Nick Zachary (40 TDs) and a big offensive line, including two 300-pound boys.  Sheridan scored on the first four possessions in the semistate against Southern Wells, but the Blackhawks really don't throw the ball.  Only 52 passes all year.  I don't think they can come from behind and they are vulnerable to the pass as they showed against West Lafayette.  Ritter has almost 3,000 yards passing.  Ritter junior QB Ross Hendrickson (165 of 276, 2,776 yards) was made to play indoors and senior Tyrone Walker (167 catches, 1651 yards, 21 TDs) has not been stopped.  These two teams played an overtime state title game two years ago, but it's Ritter's time to win and it may not be close.

Ritter 38, Sheridan 28


Class 2A
Lewis Cass (13-1) vs. Heritage Christian (13-1)

INDIANAPOLIS (11-28-2008)  Cass shut down the running game of Jimtown in a 28-7 Semistate win, but they face a different animal here.  HC runs a spread passing attack that is perfect for the indoor conditions in the Lucas Oil Stadium.  Outdoors, this is an even game.  But junior Jackson Kirkley (233 of 451, 3,387 yards) has thrown an incredible 44 TD passes with just 10 interceptions.  Cass, which averages 300 yards a game rushing,  has no answer for him.  Unless they can control the ball 60% of the time they will get beat here.  Indoors, it's time for Heritage Christian, which lost 21-6 to Bishop Luers in the final game last year, to win its first state title.

Heritage Christian 38, Lewis Cass 17
 

Class 3A
Bellmont (13-1) vs. Evansville Memorial (12-2)

INDIANAPOLIS (11-28-2008) I don't know how Bellmont is here.  They have allowed 20 points or more four times in the post-season.  Halfback Nick Hall ran 12 times for 230 yards last week in the 35-21 win over Northwood and he may welcome the fast Lucas stadium turf.  Memorial handled the power running attack of state champ Chatard, though and they've allowed just 59 points in five playoff games.  Memorial halfback Ryan Black (6-0, 200) has rushed for 1,800 yards and Memorial QB Grant Gribbons has thrown for 25 TDs and 2,500 yards.
These teams have never met, but I think Bellmont is a bit overmatched.

Evansville Memorial 42,  Bellmont 21


Class 4A
Bishop Dwenger (14-0) vs. Cathedral (11-2)

INDIANAPOLIS (11-29-2008) Dwenger got four TD passes from Trevor Yerrick to rally past Lowell 38-22 in the semistate, but you have to worry about them giving up 300 yards to the Devils.  Cathedral is much bigger on offense and even faster on defense than Lowell.  This is also a home game for Cathedral which crushed the 40-points-per-game offense of top-ranked Columbus East.  Concord rolled into the finals with a 14-0 record in 2006 and Cathedral stomped them 38-14.  I don't know what Bishop Dwenger can do against this defense, which has allowed 57 points in Cathedral's last eight games.  Dwenger has halfback Robbie Kimes who has rushed for 1,100 yards and QB Trevor Yerrick who has thrown for 21 TDs and just one interception in only 141 attempts.  But I don't think anything the Saints can do will work consistently against Cathedral.  And if they spread the field on offense on this fast a surface, their QB is going to take a lot of punishment.

Cathedral 28, Bishop Dwenger 10


Class 5A
Carmel (13-1) vs. Center Grove (13-1)

INDIANAPOLIS (11-29-2008) This isn't IU against Purdue.  The defending state champion (Carmel) against the state's top offensive team.  Center Grove has two running backs in Luke Swift (6-1, 175) and Tanner Riley (5-10, 170), who BOTH have rushed for over 1,500 yards and 22 TDs.  This is a team with 6,500 yards gained and 683 points scored (48.8 per game) in 14 games.  But Carmel star Morgan Newton (6-4, 210) has rushed for 1400 yards and passed for 1800.  And fullback Kurt Freytag (6-4, 230) has run for 1,200 yards and he's so big you cannot key on Newton.  In the first meeting (these are league rivals in Indy's Metro League) Carmel won 33-32 and this rematch will also see that much scoring.  I don't know how Center Grove, which has averaged 50 points a game in the post-season, ever loses any games so, even with Carmel's QB, I'd say Center Grove will win a shootout.