Week
15 Picks: 2009 NW Indiana High School Football
A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith
November 26, 2009
'Mr. Picker' WEEK FOURTEEN (14), 2009 Football Picks in Review:
Wrong - 3; Right - 7 = 70.0%; Play-offs: 66-28 = 70.2%;
Regular Season: 85-28 = 75.1%; TOTAL: 151-56 = 72.8%The Pick The Result CLASS 1A
Lafayette Catholic 35, Southern Wells 14
Lafayette Catholic 47-13
Fountain Central 31, Clinton Central 0 Fountain Central 42-14
CLASS 2A
Bishop Luers 27, Rensselaer 0 Bishop Luesr 52-21
Monrovia 20, Paoli 10 Monrovia 30-13
CLASS 3A
West Lafayette 28, Jimtown 7 West Lafayette 28-14 Bishop Chatard 28, Evansville Memorial 7 Wrong... Evansville Memorial 37-21
CLASS 4A
Evansville Reitz 26, Cathedral 20 Reitz 31-10 Bishop Dwenger 16, LOWELL 10 Wrong... LOWELL 24-21 CLASS 5A
Warren Central 35, Center Grove 21 Warren Central 28-10 MERRILLVILLE 21, Carmel 14 Wrong... Carmel 42-0
WEEK (14) FOURTEEN ANALYSIS: The intriguing thing is the Evansville teams defeating the Indianapolis powers Chatard and Cathedral and beating them badly. Both Evansville teams are pass-oriented spread attack teams, while both Indy powers were traditional running squads. It's still not logical to say that everyone should spread the field in Northern Indiana in November. But there is a little power shift in the state where football is concerned. I don't think Carmel is 42 points better than Merrillville, but the Pirates began badly and could not recover. All credit to Lowell for the upset of Bishop Dwenger. I don't think Lowell has superior players to Dwenger, but they have the capability to be better for one night and that's what makes them a top program. If you can't pick four of the five state finals games, you just are not seeing things correctly.
Mr. Picker (Through the Years)
2008 (final) OVERALL: 145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL: 143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL: 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%
37th Indiana
State Football Tournament
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INDIANAPOLIS - To be indoors this week is a major blessing and 10 teams kick it off inside the 63,000-seat, $720-million dollar Lucas Oil Stadium in downtown Indianapolis. You will still see the great runners as Warren Central's Shakir Bell goes for the 3,000-yard mark in the 5A championship game against Carmel. Lowell's Brandon Grubbe tries to reach the 6,000-yard career mark in the 4A game against Reitz. But passing stars are more abundant. Lafayette Catholic's Chris Mills has passed for over 9,000 yards in his career, but Grant Gribbons (191-308, 3,240 yards, 35 TDs, 12 interceptions) of Evansville Memorial is the state's top yardage passer. There are three private schools and all (Lafayette Catholic, Bishop Luers and Evansville Memorial) are favored, while small town hopes ride with first time 2A state finalist Monrovia and 4A upset specialist Lowell.
Veedersburg (Fountain Central) is a small town, too. But I said 'hopes'. I don't know if Fountain Central knows how big an underdog they are. Most of the state may not care, but the true Metro Conference champion will be decided when 5A No. 1 Carmel (13-1, 7-0 Metro) takes on 5A No. 3 Warren Central (12-2, 6-1 Metro) in a rematch of a 24-22 game in September.
Remember, you must have Digital cable to watch the state finals.
They will air in their entirety on Comcast Digital Cable Channel 114.
If you do not have Digital Cable you have to go to Indianapolis and buy a ticket.
Comcast didn't purchase the rights to the state finals just to put them on free TV.
There will also NOT be highlights of the games on the South Bend TV news, which is accessible in Northwest Indiana.
South Bend has no dog in this fight, so they will ignore the finals.
Lakeshore TV (Comcast Cable Ch. 17) will have highlights, but they can't air until the nightly news Monday night.
CLASS 1A Championship
(1A) Lafayette Catholic (13-0) vs. Fountain Central (14-0)
INDIANAPOLIS
(11-27-2009) Lafayette Catholic is one of the state's dominant teams. They
have allowed 42 points all season and the offense averages 52 points a game.
Lafayette's Chris Mills is 169 of 251 for 2,947 yards, with 43 TDs and just
seven interceptions. Indoors, I don't know what the answer for him is. Fountain
Central was 3-8 in 2008 and they have a rushing star in halfback Trent Spear
(149 carries, 1,215 yards, 24 TDs) but this is not an even game. Fountain Central
averages 42 points a game, but I'm not sure they even score here.
Lafayette Catholic's defense has nine shutouts and they've played a much tougher
schedule. The Knights will win their third state title and folks will be bored.
This is a mismatch.
Lafayette Catholic 42, Fountain Central 14
Class
2A Championship
(2A) Bishop Luers (9-5) vs. Monrovia (14-0)
INDIANAPOLIS
(11-27-2009) Monrovia has allowed just 76 points all year, but Luers has
scored 254 points (50.8) in five playoff games. No matter how many times you
say this, observers still discount the schedule that Luers plays. Monrovia,
which sounds like a neighborhood in 'Cougartown' is a significant underdog
in this game even though their defense has eight shutouts. The Bulldogs will
get a lot of attention because they are a first-time finalist from a very
tiny town which is a distant suburb on Indianapolis. But the Bulldogs needed Jimtown to defeat Luers at the semistate and that didn't happen.
Monrovia has not faced anything other than 1A and 2A schools ALL season.
Luers, in Fort Wayne's Summit Athletic Conference, has faced three 4A
schools and three 5A schools.
Luers star Kenny Mullen has rushed for 24 TDs. Monrovia won the regional
20-15 at 2A No. 1 Ritter, but I don't think Ritter is better than Luers,
which will flourish in the perfect indoor conditions.
Luers has won seven
state titles, while this is the first time Monrovia has advanced beyond the
sectional, Sorry, Monrovia will get carved up like turkey leftovers.
Bishop Luers 41, Monrovia 21
CLASS
3A Championship
(3A) Evansville Memorial (12-2) vs. West Lafayette (14-0)
INDIANAPOLIS
(11-28-2009) Maybe the best game of the finals matching junior Memorial QB
Grant Gribbons (191 of 308, 3,240 yards, 35 TDs, 12 interceptions) against
West Lafayette double threat senior QB Danny Woodicka (143 of 237, 2007, 25
TDs, 2 interceptions AND 134 carries for 1,352 yards and 23 TDs). Memorial's
upset of top-ranked Bishop Chatard was strong, but they now face another top
passer.
This is a skill position showcase and defense will be put in the closet. This game is indicative of the change in football in this state with the
flood of artificial turf field and college style offenses that require the
defense to have a half dozen really good athletes. Few non-5A schools have
that.
In what may be the highest scoring state finals ever, this will be the
highest scoring game.
Memorial gives up a lot of points, but they score a lot, too.
Evansville Memorial 50, West Lafayette 35
CLASS 4A Championship
(4A) Evansville Reitz (14-0) vs. LOWELL (13-1)
INDIANAPOLIS
(11-28-2009) An ironic rematch here.
Two years ago, Reitz defeated Lowell
33-14 in the state title game as Lowell sophomore halfback Brandon Grubbe (6-1,
195)
was injured on the final play of the first quarter and could not return.
Two years later, Grubbe (373 carries, 2,243 yards, 36 TDs) is Lake County's
all-time leading rusher and Lowell is back to face the very same team.
In 2007,
Reitz was quarterbacked by Paul McIntosh who led the easy win.
Two years later
Paul's brother Matt MacIntosh (135 of 202, 2,057 yards, 24 TDs, 5 interceptions
AND 1,414 yards rushing and 19 TDs on 187 carries) is the Panther QB.
On paper, Reitz, which has great balance in their offense, should win.
But there
are a lot of side issues here.
One of which is that Lowell has defeated four of
the other nine Top-10 teams. If there is an upset on state finals' weekend, here
it is.
LOWELL 30, Reitz 24
CLASS
5A Championship
(5A) Carmel (13-1) vs. Warren Central (12-2)
INDIANAPOLIS
(11-28-2009) A big school war (both have 4,000 students) and a rematch of a game won by Carmel 24-22 on Oct. 2. What bothers me here from a Carmel standpoint is that WC's Shakir Bell (5-8, 185) ran 38 times for 241 yards outdoors in that game. Let's go indoors in perfect conditions and what does he do then? I don't believe that Carmel is as good as they appeared to be in the 42-0 win at Merrillville in the semistate. The Greyhounds scored easy points in Merrillville on turnovers and I don't think they get that Saturday. Carmel passer Adam Shafer has had a much better year than WC quarterback Mike Hart. But Bell, who fumbled three times in the earlier game, is out to even the score and he won't fumble three times again. Can we talk? Nobody wants to see these teams. Fine boys, excellent coaches and good athletes, but I'm surprised ESPN isn't doing the game. Maybe a couple of dozen of them can announce their college or pro choices at halftime. The IHSAA should break down the state tourney so two schools from the same conference can't meet in the finals. That is obvious to a lot of us. But maybe they also need to allow a special bracket (maybe they could call it 6A) for the 3,000 to 4,000 teen schools. That's obvious to everyone but the IHSAA board. Maybe the thousands of people from normal high schools walking out of the Lucas Oil Stadium before the kickoff of Saturday's 5A game will send that message. Carmel can find lots of holes in the Warren Central secondary and they need Warren to get caught up in a passing shootout. The Warriors' line is too big for the undersized Carmel defensive front and they can take time off the clock. Despite what we saw last week at Merrillville, Carmel just isn't equipped to stop Bell for four quarters.
Warren Central 37, Carmel 28
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Revised: November 26, 2009
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