Week 15 NW Indiana HS Football Picks

'Mr. Picker' WEEK-14, 2011 Football Picks in Review: Nov. 18-19, 2011 Wrong - 2; Right - 8 = 80.0%
The Pick	The Result
(1A) Lafayette Catholic 35, Sheridan 0	Lafayette Catholic 17-0
Scecina 35, Linton-Stockton 28	Scecina 17-0
(2A) Bishop Luers 35, Bremen 21	Bishop Luers 35-21
Mater Dei 28, Guerin 24	Mater Dei 27-16
(3A) W. Lafayette 27, St. Joe’s 20	(wrong) St. Joe 21-13
Bishop Chatard 41, Corydon 14	Chatard 38-6
(4A) (SB) Leo 21, SBW 7	(wrong) SBW 13-3
Cathedral 31, Columbus East 21	Cathedral 62-7
(5A) Penn 42, Snider 14	Penn 28-10
Carmel 40, Center Grove 17	Carmel 21-17

WEEK FOURTEEN (14) ANALYSIS: I thought South Bend Washington was out three weeks ago and they keep winning. I still think it's more a product of who they’ve played as opposed to how good they are. West Lafayette vs. St. Joseph’s was a coin flip that could have gone either way. Other than that, the favorites all won.

BEST PICK: Obviously, when you pick Bishop Luers over Bremen 35-21 and the final score is 35-21, that’s the best pick. But to pick Lafayette Catholic to shut out Sheridan was a pretty good pick, too. I thought I’d go at least 9-1, so 8-2 is a bit of a disappointment.

2011 Regular Season, 9-weeks: 69 of 99 = 69.7%
2011 Playoffs (5 weeks): 60 of 80 = 75.0%
2011 OVERALL, 14-weeks: 129 of 179 = 72.0%

Mr. Picker (Through the Years)
2010 (final) OVERALL: 135 of 184 = 73.3%
2009 (final) OVERALL: 154 of 212 = 72.6%
2008 (final) OVERALL: 145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL: 143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL: 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%

WEEK (15) FIFTEEN:

INDIANAPOLIS (11-25-2011) Here’s where it's all on the line and it should be a 5-0 week for anyone paying attention. There are five solid favorites in the state finals weekend and it's only a matter of what score you want to pick.

It's hard to ignore that private schools are favored in four of the state championship games. There are no private schools in class 5A, so a public school has to win but both teams in the 1A, 2A and 3A championship game are private schools.

The IHSAA does not seem to want to change this and to be fair to them, they’ll accept it as long as the schools do. Catholic schools win the majority of the football state titles because they can bring in top kids who were developed in other towns.

The argument that public school kids can also go to other towns and enroll in their public school is a false argument. Some public schools won't accept out of district students and others keep it quiet. It's hard to explain how tax money from the citizens of your town is being used to educate kids from the neighbor town. You also can't send the public school bus 30 miles away to pick up a kid who’s attending school in your town. But Catholic schools have the right to recruit kids to come to their school. That’s how they exist.

The solution, and it works in Illinois, is to again, move everyone up one class and let them compete. In NW Indiana, that would simply return Noll to 2A and Andrean to 3A.
The parallel is class basketball. Indiana denied the need for it for decades while Illinois had classes since the 1970s. Indiana finally went along, although they should have gone to two classes. There’s no going back now because it's fair.

That’s why in the next 20-30 years, a rule will go into Indiana football saying that private schools must play football in one class about their enrollment. It clears Class 1A, where Lafayette Catholic hasn't lost a game since the Indianapolis Colts were in the Super Bowl. And it moves big Catholic schools like Cathedral up to the level of 5A public school superpowers like Warren Central.

It is the obvious solution. It may not happen until there is the inevitable (and long overdue) installation of Class 6A so the Carmels and Penns can avoid teams like Cathedral. That’s how the change would be sold. But moving up schools one class breaks the Catholic stranglehold, while still allowing them to win state titles. You can make excuses, but watch the title games and tell me change isn't needed.

By the way, you can't watch the first four state title games. They will not be aired on Lakeshore Public TV. They will be carried on ‘Lakeshore Kids’, Lakeshore’s sub channel that isn't available on cable or satellite. Only the Penn-Carmel game will be on the main channel, at 6 p.m. Saturday night.

CLASS 1A

Lafayette Catholic (14-0) vs (Indanapolis) Scecina (11-3):

INDIANAPOLIS (11-25-2011) Another mismatch. Lafayette Catholic, which has won 44 games in a row, will be better indoors against a Scecina team which has faced nothing but tiny public schools until now. This game should be a showcase for Purdue recruit Danny Anthrop, who has rushed for 1,400 yards, caught passes for 800 yards and scored an insane 48 touchdownss. QB Austin Munn has thrown for 27 TDs. Scecina has given up four TDs in a game four times and they have completed only 55 passes all year. If Scecina gets behind, this won't be close and they will get behind.

Lafayette Catholic 42, Scecina 14

CLASS 2A

(Evansville Mater Dei (13-1) vs Bishop Luers (12-1):

INDIANAPOLIS (11-25-2011) The Friday night game also features a team going for its third consecutive state title. Luers star James Knapke (6-3, 200) has thrown for 27 TDs and just three interceptions. When he gets tired, he hands off to halfback Jaylon Smith (6-3, 215) who has run for 23 TDs. The scary thing about Luers... they have only 15 seniors on the roster. Mater Dei’s Cody Hess has run for 22 TDs and senior QB Dane Mauer has thrown for 2,951 yards and 33 TDs, but Luers is a speed-based team that wants you to challenge them athletically. This should be good entertainment, but I doubt Mater Dei has seen Luers speed.

Bishop Luers 40, Mater Dei 28

CLASS 3A

South Bend St. Joseph’s (12-2) vs. Bishop Chaarr (12-2):

INDIANAPOLIS (11-26-2011) Can you believe that Bishop Chatard is trying to win the school’s 11th state title in the last 30 years? I bet you can. Chatard has the power running game with Ryan Kleinschmidt, who has rushed for 1,593 yards and 14 TDs, but senior QB Max Van Vliet has thrown for 27 TDs. Chatard defeated St. Joseph’s in the state title game last year, but the Indians are back with halfback David Arsenault (5-10, 170), who has run for 1,471 yards. I think St. Joe’s offense will be enhanced indoors and that makes this game close. But Chatard has a size advantage up front and that could be the difference in short yardage situations. This one will be worth watching, except that it won't be on TV in NW Indiana.

Bishop Chatard 28, St. Joseph’s 24

CLASS 4A

South Bend Washington (11-3) vs. Cathedral (11-3):

INDIANAPOLIS (11-26-2011) Trust me on this one. Washington’s 11-3 and Cathedral’s 11-3 are not the same. Cathedral has played teams from three (Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio) different states. They crushed Columbus East and all-state passer Gunner Kiel 62-7 last week. Cathedral QB Corey Babb has thrown for 21 TDs, but they rely on the defense. Washington will come out throwing with all-state receiver Gehrig Dieter (6-3, 210), who has caught 76 passes for a ridiculous 2,003 yards and 30 TDs. Soph QB Daigen Morgan is 135 of 267 for 2,834 yards, 30 TDs and 12 interceptions and halfback David Perkins (182 carries, 1,300 yards) is fast. But I think Washington is luckier than Tim Tebow and Cathedral has played all-state caliber boys from three states.

Cathedral 45, (SB) Washington 16

CLASS 5A

Penn (14-0) vs. Carmel (13-1):

INDIANAPOLIS (11-26-2011) This game is on TV (Lakeshore Public TV at 6 p.m.), but it may be the dullest of the weekend. Here’s two very good defensive teams that could just roll each other up in the artificial turf at the Lucas Oil Stadium. Penn has allowed 13 TDs all season and they have held nine foes to 10 points or less. But they will have a very hard time scoring more than field goals against Carmel’s defense, which has four shutouts and has defeated No. 10 Lawrence Central, No. 5 Ben Davis and No.1 Warren Central. Carmel’s 210-pound runner Jalen Duncan has 1,706 yards and 25 TDs. Neither team throws the ball a lot. Even at 14-0, Penn seems overmatched here.

Carmel 21, Penn 9